Trends & Hot Topics

▪ Real Estate Forecast Breakfast

February 7, 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Population

23,100 30,442

62,142 74,958

115,367

157,211170,606

190,734230,412

267,798

304,012

339,815 357,345

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2065

Population Forecast: 2015-2065

23,100 30,442

62,142 74,958

115,367

157,211

187,621199,793

244,018

289,225

334,042

385,803

432,930

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2068

Population Forecast: 2018-2068

Population Forecast

Area / Year 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 2068

Deschutes County (Total) 187,621 199,793 220,708 244,018 266,840 289,225 301,999 432,930

Bend 91,373 98,205 109,338 123,574 138,587 153,696 162,362 255,291

La Pine 1,833 2,081 2,304 2,670 3,023 3,386 3,594 5,894

Redmond 29,364 30,812 33,839 38,524 43,473 48,575 51,625 82,575

Sisters 2,691 3,018 3,340 3,889 4,384 4,867 5,169 8,431

Unincorporated/Rural 62,360 65,677 71,887 75,362 77,373 78,702 79,248 80,739

Changes & Comparisons

Deschutes County Population Forecast Changes

• Growth has been faster than anticipated

• Expects faster growth from 2018-2025, which results in a prediction for a larger population through 2068

County Comparisons 2018-2068

• Deschutes 187,621 – 432,930 245,309

• Crook 22,519 – 37,787 15,268

• Jefferson 23,447 – 32,191 8,744

• Marion 337,773 – 513,142 175,369

• Jackson (2017-67) 219,270 – 320,852 101,582

• Lane (2015-65) 361,540 – 513,982 152,442

2018 Population Comparisons

Preliminary Population Estimate July 1, 2018

Certified Population Estimate July 1, 2017

Population Change 2017-18

Percent Change 2017-18

DESCHUTES 188,980 182,930 6,050 3.3%

CROOK 22,710 22,105 605 2.7%

WASHINGTON 606,280 595,860 10,420 1.7%

JEFFERSON 23,560 23,190 370 1.6%

CLACKAMAS 419,425 413,000 6,425 1.6%

Preliminary Population Estimate July 1, 2018

Certified Population

Estimate July 1, 2017

Population Change 2017-18

Percent Change 2017-18

WASHINGTON 606,280 595,860 10,420 1.7%

MULTNOMAH 813,300 803,000 10,300 1.3%

CLACKAMAS 419,425 413,000 6,425 1.6%

DESCHUTES 188,980 182,930 6,050 3.3%

MARION 344,035 339,200 4,835 1.4%

Development Data

Total Single Family Home Permits

593

717

875957

663

320166

102

100127

218308

376443

556

544

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Total Single Family Homes 2018

Total Building Permits

1,727

1,7571,832

1,924

1,708

1,183

782

630 614

650836

9711,131

1,3091,469

1,592

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Alterations

New Commercial Buildings

Total Land Use Applications

1,090

985

832

685

466385

392463 511

638 784

941901

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Land Use Applications

Total Opened Code Enforcement Cases

252 241

348422

494

606

903

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Trends & Hot Topics• 2019 development forecast: Stable

• Expect significant public involvement in land use applications

• Major road projects – Tumalo & Terrebonne

• Future of solid waste – keep it or ship it

• Redmond growth & UGB amendments

• Resort & residential developments

• Significant interest in Sisters & La Pine

• Balance, balance, balance

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