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TRENDS AFFECTING THE FEASIBILITY OF ATTAINING THE SDG
• Good progress and some optimism
• Some major global trends affecting the attainment of the SDGs
• The need for action
– At the global level
– At national level
– At the local level
• Moving Forward
2
Structure of the Presentation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1820
s
1830
s
1840
s
1850
s
1860
s
1870
s
1880
s
1890
s
1900
s
1910
s
1920
s
1930
s
1940
s
1950
s
1960
s
1970
s
1980
s
1990
s
2000
s
Western Europe (WE)
Eastern Europe (EE)
Latin America and Caribbean (LA)
East Asia (EA)
South and South-East Asia (SSEA)
Middle East and North Africa(MENA)
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
World
More than 200 years of progress
Life expectancy at birth (years, decadal averages): 1820s-2000s
2. Progress to date 3
Optimism for the future (in most places)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
East Asia and Pacific, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe and Central Asia, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Latin America and Caribbean, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East and North Africa, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
South Asia, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sub-Saharan Africa, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2009 2010 2011 2012
Gulf States and Russian Federation, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High income countries (without Gulf States and Russian Federation), score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
Life perceptions – past, present and future
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
East Asia and Pacific, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe and Central Asia, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Latin America and Caribbean, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East and North Africa, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
South Asia, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sub-Saharan Africa, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2009 2010 2011 2012
Gulf States and Russian Federation, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High income countries (without Gulf States and Russian Federation), score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
East Asia and Pacific, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe and Central Asia, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Latin America and Caribbean, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East and North Africa, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
South Asia, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sub-Saharan Africa, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2009 2010 2011 2012
Gulf States and Russian Federation, score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
High income countries (without Gulf States and Russian Federation), score 0-10 (10 = most favourable)
Past (5 years ago)
Present (now)
Future (5 years fromnow)
Score 0-10 (10= most favourable)
Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and Pacific High income
(without Gulf States & Russian Federation)
3. Current situation 4
Livelihoods under stress
Economic
• Growth • Inequality • Jobless growth
Demographics
• Youth bulge • Ageing populations
Technology
• Automation • Innovation
Environment
• Climate change • …esp. droughts
Security
• Traditional wars • Cyber wars/
security
Governance
• Low levels of trust • Fragile states3
Key Trends affecting SDGs
4. Challenging trends 5
6
Real Annual GDP Growth: Advanced vs
Emerging and Developing Countries
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies World
Source: IMF Datamapper accessed 21 October 2015
Population Growth Rates in the
Developing World (1950-2050)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
%
Population Growth Rates
World Sub-Saharan Africa Southern Asia Southeast Asia
Threat to livelihoods: The youth bulge
Ethiopia 2010 Population: 83 million
Ethiopia 2050 Population: 170 million
Source: OECD African Economic Outlook 2015 4. Challenging trends
8
Total Rural Population continues to
increase until 2028
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Rural Population (thousands)
Less developed regions More developed regions
Poverty rates between rural and urban
areas in developing countries 1990-2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Rural Urban Rural Urban
1990 2008
%
East Asia and Pacific Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Threat to livelihoods: Automation
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Emp
loym
ent
in 2
01
2, i
n t
ho
usa
nd
Probability of computerisation
Management, business, and financial Computer, engineering, and science
Education, legal, community service, arts, and media Healthcare practioners and technical
Personal care and service Sales and related
Office and administrative support Farming, fishing, and forestry
Construction and extraction Installation, maintenance, and repair
Production Transportation and material moving
Risks of US job losses through computerisation, 2012
4. Challenging trends 11
Threat to livelihoods: Jobless growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
30
60
90
120
150
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
France
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Germany
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Japan
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
020406080
100120140160180200
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
United States
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
United Kingdom
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Korea
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
China
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
India
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Indonesia
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Employment, total, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Bangladesh
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Total employment, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Ghana
Labour force participation rate, RHS
GDP (constant 2005 US$), 1991=100
Total employment, 1991=100
Labour force, total, 1991=100
Indexed GDP (constant 2005 USD), total employment and total labour force, 1991=100 (LHS); labour force participation rate, total in % of total population ages 15-64 (RHS) 12
Threat to livelihoods: Climate change
and droughts
The increasing incidence of droughts, 1975-2039 Source: Dai, A. (2011), “Drought under global warming: A review”, WIREs Climate Change
4. Challenging trends 13
Threat to livelihoods: Security
The poverty gap is widening between peaceful and conflict-ridden countries
4. Challenging trends 14
15
• Global co-operation on public goods create the conditions in which livelihoods can thrive and prevent global shocks
Global level actions
• Governments act as a back-stop and enabler of creative and regenerative societies
National level actions
• Societies evolve towards new ways of living and working in which individuals and communities are the key actors of change
Local level actions
Bold actions to achieve the SDG
6. Bold actions to secure future livelihoods 16
Climate change
Global finance
Tax
Trade
Migration Natural
disasters
Water
Cyber security
R&D for public goods
Global level actions
6. Bold actions to secure future livelihoods 17
• Focusing on inclusive growth
• Investing in health, education, lifelong learning and skills
• Expanding social protection systems
• Improving soft and hard infrastructures
• Prioritising green growth
National level actions
6. Bold actions to secure future livelihoods 18
• Securing Livelihoods for All broadly illustrates some of the challenges ahead. This has been a broad global scan
• We now need relevant players – government, private sector, NGOs and communities – to come together and identify in detail the risks and opportunities in different regions, and to take concrete actions.
• True transformative approaches can take shape and improve, increase, protect, or save the livelihoods of people around the world
• Identify focused actions by issue, by region – For example: What bold actions are needed to address the youth bulge
challenge in sub-Saharan Africa?
A “Call to Action”
6. Bold actions to secure future livelihoods 19
Renovate existing and create new cities
to address the youth bulge in Africa
Rationale
• Youth bulge will accelerate urbanisation leads to problems such as food security, slumification
• More frequent incidents of severe droughts further accelerate urbanisation
Deliverables
• Creating an economic basis and jobs in growing existing and new cities
• Developing social protection systems (education, health, etc.)
• Increasing the quality of live through sustainable infrastructure
Challenges
• Lack of knowledge about competitive edge of existing and new cities -- all cities are different!
• Assessment of dynamics of external factors, governance, policies, logistics, etc. to identify needed strategic infrastructure, enabling environment and human capital
• Development of strategies to attract the needed (private) investment and talent
Moving forward
• Bringing together the knowledge peers to address the challenges
• Help to develop specific strategies involving all relevant stakeholders 20
Thank you !
21