trend of rice consumption in japan kobe university kako, toshiyuki
TRANSCRIPT
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Trend of Rice Consumption in JapanKobe UniversityKako, Toshiyuki
-
Three Phases of Rice Economy
Rice shortage phase194567
Rice surplus phase1968
Rice trade liberalization phase 1995
-
Position of Rice in Japanese Agriculture
-
Graph2
110.725.1
111.823.9
116.524.9
113.624.8
113.925.9
114.925.8
117.425.8
118.326
117.326.9
115.828.1
111.729
105.831.3
103.431.6
100.131.3
9731.3
95.130.8
93.130.9
91.530.8
90.830.9
89.731.1
8831.5
86.231.7
83.431.8
81.631.7
79.831.9
78.932.2
77.831.8
76.431.8
75.731.8
75.231.8
74.631.7
73.431.6
71.931.5
7131.6
70.431.7
7031.7
69.931.7
69.731.6
69.132.2
66.233.1
67.832.8
67.333
66.732.4
65.232.2
65.132.4
64.632.6
SourceFood Agency, Food Balance Sheet
Rice
Wheat
Year
kg
Per Capita Consumption of Rice and Wheat
Sheet1
Sheet1
34.028605482721.116408422755.1450139054
30.060511419124.544212375654.6047237947
28.059413580226.651234567954.7106481481
25.932113296428.730351583354.6624648796
25.00663456830.374947871355.3815824392
23.833471980629.91378658453.7472585646
5
Sheet2
65919659
63999314
62619012
61208862
61098689
60538423
60138284
60228103
60398015
60407864
59647670
58357536
57487318
56547581
55547416
55027319
54317247
53817130
51586906
52577112
51766833
50896757
50516655
49996614
50206487
49486318
Sheet3
18.888481187719471.62014169181947
20.590408224219483.61538582451948
21.855116455519494.32549179851949
23.739508520419505.98059757531950
25.849927019719516.28056381241951
27.494798700619525.23049968971952
28.27306998619534.76765518681953
27.804008201219545.2817003091954
27.198426573419554.8885489511955
27.085395948219563.71049015121956
27.178452310919573.53569326491957
26.376185267519583.54925948051958
25.291516145319593.50537957531959
23.564649660119603.49146713821960
20.673214674619613.58096569751961
18.374213554519623.60723345231962
196320.127159463119633.7184509665
196418.367587999119643.9510985117
196518.440446515719653.9991329793
196617.256162915319663.9401827183
196716.158826890119673.6516853933
196815.771529776419683.5111799867
196914.425960156119693.5407681249
197012.870958216419703.3773807766
197111.974487346519713.398258007
197210.680230889419723.3581018592
19739.673363323919733.5066640588
19748.712514092419744.1894024803
19759.229580617719754.0650567563
19769.432631807319764.0681275765
19779.548244118619774.1612683259
19789.332304256419784.202246453
19799.004444869319794.1596966656
19808.699550229419804.4558671907
19818.626396658119814.5198965064
19828.537747750319824.5148720249
19838.440829673119834.606985992
19848.482497738519844.60924865
19858.453244727719854.5677086865
19868.330292587319864.6178795865
19877.915221369519874.5898997624
19887.183206827319884.5663516374
19896.930875819119894.668486071
19906.515021024419904.5810324738
19916.195056617619914.6487276269
19926.210169820719924.7219625885
19936.576592040419934.8257767097
19946.471595987719944.9359420002
19955.560691266719954.9071720206
19965.311388593219964.9167986293
19974.933210737419974.9370418614
19984.749475408219984.9094119453
19994.605039822419995.0006528267
20004.456692486920004.9821244786
Rice
Bread and Noodles
Year
Fig. 1 Share of Expenditures on Rice, Bread and Noodles in Food Expendituresnominal price
110.725.1
111.823.9
116.524.9
113.624.8
113.925.9
114.925.8
117.425.8
118.326
117.326.9
115.828.1
111.729
105.831.3
103.431.6
100.131.3
9731.3
95.130.8
93.130.9
91.530.8
90.830.9
89.731.1
8831.5
86.231.7
83.431.8
81.631.7
79.831.9
78.932.2
77.831.8
76.431.8
75.731.8
75.231.8
74.631.7
73.431.6
71.931.5
7131.6
70.431.7
7031.7
69.931.7
69.731.6
69.132.2
66.233.1
67.832.8
67.333
66.732.4
65.232.2
65.132.4
64.632.6
Rice
Wheat
Year
kg
Fig. Per Capita Consumption of Rice and Wheat
12993196519651240919651965
12503196619661274519661966
12483196719671445319671967
12251196819681444919681968
11965196919691400319691969
11948197019701268919701970
11859197119711088719711971
11948197219721189719721972
12078197319731214919731973
12033197419741229219741974
11964197519751316519751975
11819197619761177219761976
11483197719771309519771977
11364197819781258919781978
11218197919791195819791979
1120919801980975119801980
11130198119811025919811981
10988198219821027019821982
10979198319831036619831983
10938198419841187819841984
10849198519851166219851985
10796198619861164719861986
10647198719871062719871987
1058419881988993519881988
10527198919891034719891989
10484199019901049919901990
1051319911991960419911991
10502199219921057319921992
1047619931993783419931993
10022199419941198119941994
10485199519951074819951995
10189199619961034419961996
10107199719971002519971997
990819981998896019981998
990599059905917591759175
200099889988200094909490
20019879.39857316649909.970629320320019028.23190649989058.8039626536
20029826.36108024239878.915148520120028885.19441357568937.7484818534
20039773.7978560529848.134233118420038772.63118938538846.9675664517
20049724.88728690899820.807607179120049223.72062024229319.6409405125
20059673.26776817469790.574996083920059172.10110150799289.4083294172
20069603.06402726699741.26502836420069101.89736060029240.0983616974
20079533.40024560559692.211042135120079032.23357893889191.0443754684
20089464.27234411779643.411742667320088963.10567745119142.2450760007
20099395.67627455729594.865842177320098894.50960789069093.6991755106
20109327.60801925539546.572059769620108826.44135258869045.4053931029
Production
Consumption
1965200020012010
A
B
A
B
Year
(1,000t)
Fig3 Projection of Production and Consumption of Rice
37468184564
292418404764
327420295303
613320278160
870312799982
811410619175
82297879016
73059568261
631230459357
753822819819
652130349556
6519362210141
6402365210055
572534479172
540326838086
456123916952
363725016138
472621566882
262021844804
232022724592
232017264046
210017153815
207014593529
210010123112
19007482648
18308932723
177013343104
175013303080
24342422677
24332532687
37468184564
292418404764
327420295303
613320278160
870312799982
811410619175
82297879016
73059568261
631230459357
753822819819
652130349556
6519362210141
6402365210055
572534479172
540326838086
456123916952
363725016138
472621566882
262021844804
232022724592
232017264046
210017153815
207014593529
210010123112
19007482648
18308932723
177013343104
175013303080
24342422677
24332532687
10008.6956521739920892
9070.1030927835879897
10381.25996696
9290.0990099019383101
10843.8202247191965189
9722.5806451613904293
10336.4583333333992396
10171.6049382716823981
10125.5555555556911390
11362.385321100912385109
116581089993.4894493052
123461146492.8559857444
121721199398.5294117647
1233712501101.3293345222
1261812858101.902044698
130621241995.0773235339
133151300997.70184003
134101281295.5406413125
133611258494.1845670234
129931240995.5052720696
1250312745101.9355354715
1248314453115.7814627894
1225114449117.9413925394
1196514003117.0330129544
1194812689106.2018747908
118591088791.8036933974
119481189799.573150318
1207812149100.5878456698
1203312292102.1524141943
1196413165110.0384486794
118191177299.6023352229
1148313095114.0381433423
1136412589110.779655051
1121811958106.596541273
11209975186.992595236
111301025992.1743036837
109881027093.4655988351
109791036694.4166135349
1093811878108.5938928506
1084911662107.4937782284
1079611647107.8825490923
106471062799.8121536583
10584993593.8681027967
105271034798.2901111428
1048410499100.1430751622
10513960491.3535622563
1050210573100.6760617025
10476783474.7804505536
1002211981119.5469966075
1048510748102.5083452551
1018910344101.5212484051
101071002599.1886811121
9908896090.4319741623
9905917592.6299848561
9988949095.0140168202
2
Bread and Noodles
Wheat
MBD002CC1AC.doc
2010
A
B
A
B
906t
844t
866t
62t
40t
66.0kg
61.0kg
62.7kg
5.0kg
3.3kg
MBD0001555B.xls
Graph2
37468184564
292418404764
327420295303
613320278160
870312799982
811410619175
82297879016
73059568261
631230459357
753822819819
652130349556
6519362210141
6402365210055
572534479172
540326838086
456123916952
363725016138
472621566882
262021844804
232022724592
232017264046
210017153815
207014593529
210010123112
19007482648
18308932723
177013343104
175013303080
24342422677
24332532687
Sheet1
Sheet1
34.028605482721.116408422755.1450139054
30.060511419124.544212375654.6047237947
28.059413580226.651234567954.7106481481
25.932113296428.730351583354.6624648796
25.00663456830.374947871355.3815824392
23.833471980629.91378658453.7472585646
5
Sheet2
10008.6956521739920892
9070.1030927835879897
10381.25996696
9290.0990099019383101
10843.8202247191965189
9722.5806451613904293
10336.4583333333992396
10171.6049382716823981
10125.5555555556911390
11362.385321100912385109
116581089993
123461146492
121721199398
1233712501101
1261812858102
130621241995
133151300998
134101281295
133611258494
129931240995.5052720696
1250312745101.9355354715
1248314453115.7814627894
1225114449117.9413925394
1196514003117.0330129544
1194812689106.2018747908
118591088791.8036933974
119481189799.573150318
1207812149100.5878456698
1203312292102.1524141943
1196413165110.0384486794
118191177299.6023352229
1148313095114.0381433423
1136412589110.779655051
1121811958106.596541273
11209975186.992595236
111301025992.1743036837
109881027093.4655988351
109791036694.4166135349
1093811878108.5938928506
1084911662107
1079611647107.8825490923
106471062799.8121536583
105849935100
1052710347100
1048410499100.1430751622
105139604100
1050210573100.6760617025
10476783474.7804505536
1002211981119.5469966075
1048510748103
1018910344102
101071002599
9908896095
9905917595
9988949095.0140168202
9879.39857316649028.231906499891.3844283094
9826.36108024238885.194413575690.4220223643
9773.7978560528772.631189385389.7566260177
9724.88728690899223.720620242294.8465555242
9673.26776817469172.101101507994.8190551665
9603.06402726699101.897360600294.7811795772
9533.40024560559032.233578938894.7430438904
9464.27234411778963.105677451194.7046466073
9395.67627455728894.509607890694.6659862258
9327.60801925538826.441352588694.6270612398
20002010/
t
Sheet3
65919659
63999314
62619012
61208862
61098689
60538423
60138284
60228103
60398015
60407864
59647670
58357536
57487318
56547581
55547416
55027319
54317247
53817130
51586906
52577112
51766833
50896757
50516655
49996614
50206487
49486318
18.888481187719471.6201416918194711.90471954891947
20.590408224219483.6153858245194812.43284800391948
21.855116455519494.3254917985194913.12597287861949
23.739508520419505.9805975753195013.63424525091950
25.849927019719516.2805638124195114.00777086911951
27.494798700619525.2304996897195214.02048327881952
28.27306998619534.7676551868195314.2255666041953
27.804008201219545.281700309195414.08282292711954
27.198426573419554.888548951195513.16995227661955
27.085395948219563.7104901512195612.50272843851956
27.178452310919573.5356932649195712.3507815561957
26.376185267519583.5492594805195812.06466821781958
25.291516145319593.5053795753195911.20484821821959
23.564649660119603.4914671382196010.25158454881960
20.673214674619613.580965697519618.72522178261961
18.374213554519623.607233452319627.48690795711962
196320.127159463119633.718450966519637.7871092779
196418.367587999119643.951098511719646.9917492862
196518.440446515719653.999132979319657.0315728573
196617.256162915319663.940182718319666.4380379313
196716.158826890119673.651685393319675.9469783252
196815.771529776419683.511179986719685.6000125772
196914.425960156119693.540768124919694.9896286193
197012.870958216419703.377380776619704.3844538608
197111.974487346519713.39825800719713.9919977136
197210.680230889419723.358101859219723.4875971091
19739.673363323919733.506664058819733.0878732741
19748.712514092419744.189402480319742.840675175
19759.229580617719754.065056756319752.9490701472
19769.432631807319764.068127576519762.9847245266
19779.548244118619774.161268325919772.9402037827
19789.332304256419784.20224645319782.8173412984
19799.004444869319794.159696665619792.6325472643
19808.699550229419804.455867190719802.5250685264
19818.626396658119814.519896506419812.4865216196
19828.537747750319824.514872024919822.4059027764
19838.440829673119834.60698599219832.347401559
19848.482497738519844.6092486519842.3239047909
19858.453244727719854.567708686519852.2821971777
19868.330292587319864.617879586519862.2303111002
19877.915221369519874.589899762419872.0630445925
19887.183206827319884.566351637419881.8301605512
19896.930875819119894.66848607119891.7561382996
19906.515021024419904.581032473819901.6530944102
19916.195056617619914.648727626919911.5554258009
19926.210169820719924.721962588519921.5332927732
19936.576592040419934.825776709719931.6000190905
19946.471595987719944.935942000219941.5615264798
19955.560691266719954.907172020619951.3161653427
19965.311388593219964.916798629319961.2443401075
19974.933210737419974.937041861419971.1589706972
19984.749475408219984.909411945319981.1310659199
19994.605039822419995.000652826719991.0919234199
20004.456692486920004.982124478620001.0377349566
110.725.1
111.823.9
116.524.9
113.624.8
113.925.9
114.925.8
117.425.8
118.326
117.326.9
115.828.1
111.729
105.831.3
103.431.6
100.131.3
9731.3
95.130.8
93.130.9
91.530.8
90.830.9
89.731.1
8831.5
86.231.7
83.431.8
81.631.7
79.831.9
78.932.2
77.831.8
76.431.8
75.731.8
75.231.8
74.631.7
73.431.6
71.931.5
7131.6
70.431.7
7031.7
69.931.7
69.731.6
69.132.2
66.233.1
67.832.8
67.333
66.732.4
65.232.2
65.132.4
64.632.6
kg
12993196519651240919651965
12503196619661274519661966
12483196719671445319671967
12251196819681444919681968
11965196919691400319691969
11948197019701268919701970
11859197119711088719711971
11948197219721189719721972
12078197319731214919731973
12033197419741229219741974
11964197519751316519751975
11819197619761177219761976
11483197719771309519771977
11364197819781258919781978
11218197919791195819791979
1120919801980975119801980
11130198119811025919811981
10988198219821027019821982
10979198319831036619831983
10938198419841187819841984
10849198519851166219851985
10796198619861164719861986
10647198719871062719871987
1058419881988993519881988
10527198919891034719891989
10484199019901049919901990
1051319911991960419911991
10502199219921057319921992
1047619931993783419931993
10022199419941198119941994
10485199519951074819951995
10189199619961034419961996
10107199719971002519971997
990819981998896019981998
990599059905917591759175
200099889988200094909490
20019879.39857316649909.970629320320019028.23190649989058.8039626536
20029826.36108024239878.915148520120028885.19441357568937.7484818534
20039773.7978560529848.134233118420038772.63118938538846.9675664517
20049724.88728690899820.807607179120049223.72062024229319.6409405125
20059673.26776817469790.574996083920059172.10110150799289.4083294172
20069603.06402726699741.26502836420069101.89736060029240.0983616974
20079533.40024560559692.211042135120079032.23357893889191.0443754684
20089464.27234411779643.411742667320088963.10567745119142.2450760007
20099395.67627455729594.865842177320098894.50960789069093.6991755106
20109327.60801925539546.572059769620108826.44135258869045.4053931029
1965200020012010
A
B
A
B
8
37468184564
292418404764
327420295303
613320278160
870312799982
811410619175
82297879016
73059568261
631230459357
753822819819
652130349556
6519362210141
6402365210055
572534479172
540326838086
456123916952
363725016138
472621566882
262021844804
232022724592
232017264046
210017153815
207014593529
210010123112
19007482648
18308932723
177013343104
175013303080
24342422677
24332532687
37468184564
292418404764
327420295303
613320278160
870312799982
811410619175
82297879016
73059568261
631230459357
753822819819
652130349556
6519362210141
6402365210055
572534479172
540326838086
456123916952
363725016138
472621566882
262021844804
232022724592
232017264046
210017153815
207014593529
210010123112
19007482648
18308932723
177013343104
175013303080
24342422677
24332532687
MBD002D0A95.xls
Sheet4
R0.9785358893
R20.9575324866
R20.9525363086
0.0128289063
20
F
20.06308482060.0315424103191.65299512660
170.00279787420.0001645808
190.0658826948
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66.17855844365.2
65.09042667265.1
Sheet32
R0.9853046183
R20.9708251909
R20.9692043682
0.0103336426
20
F
10.06396057980.0639605798598.97061786240
180.0019221150.0001067842
190.0658826948
tP- 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
4.36576127920.004800302909.476371396504.3556762114.37584634734.3556762114.3758463473
X 1-0.00980720770.0004007215-24.47387623290-0.0106490929-0.0089653225-0.0106490929-0.0089653225
Sheet33
R0.9832646646
R20.9668094006
R20.9649654784
0.0287910432
20
F
10.43462337080.4346233708524.32223356820
180.0149206350.0008289242
190.4495440058
tP- 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
4.97310571030.0133743452371.839191578204.94500723195.00120418864.94500723195.0012041886
X 10.02556499520.001116468822.898083622200.02321937950.02791061080.02321937950.0279106108
Sheet34
R0.6737650351
R20.4539593226
R20.4236237294
0.0393536186
20
F
10.02317574970.023175749714.96457707940.0011259625
180.02787673130.0015487073
190.051052481
tP- 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
4.69776874870.0182809937256.975567864704.65936177634.73617572114.65936177634.7361757211
X 1-0.00590345250.0015260679-3.86840756380.0011259625-0.0091096046-0.0026973004-0.0091096046-0.0026973004
Sheet35
R0.8904281986
R20.7928623768
R20.7238165024
0.0068323242
5
F
10.00053603980.000536039811.48312457140.0428166046
30.0001400420.0000466807
40.0006760817
tP- 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
5.39075107610.0071658021752.28858366170.00000000525.36794627455.41355587785.36794627455.4135558778
X 10.00732147360.00216057063.38867593190.04281660460.00044556720.014197380.00044556720.01419738
Graph2
Graph3
198078.9
198177.8
198276.4
198375.7
198475.2
198574.6
198673.4
198771.9
198871
198970.4
199070
199169.9
199269.7
199369.2
199466.3
199567.8
199667.3
199766.7
199865.2
65.165.1
65.17924582362000
64.74812370762001
64.31985320912002
63.89441546632003
63.47179174232004
63.0519634242005
62.63491202142006
62.22061916682007
61.80906661422008
61.40023623812009
60.99411003272010
200020101.80.7
kg
Graph4
78.919801980
77.819811981
76.419821982
75.719831983
75.219841984
74.619851985
73.419861986
71.919871987
7119881988
70.419891989
7019901990
69.919911991
69.719921992
69.219931993
66.319941994
67.819951995
67.319961996
66.719971997
65.219981998
65.119991999
64.664.664.6391294482
200164.148123707664.3661654835
200263.719853209164.0943418665
200363.294415466363.8236538332
200462.871791742363.5540966396
200562.45196342463.2856655614
200662.034912021463.0183558941
200761.620619166862.7521629529
200861.209066614262.4870820723
200960.800236238162.2231086067
201060.394110032761.9602379297
kg
7
Sheet1
37,501
LN OFLN OF REALLN OF REALLn q^^AVERAGEPER CAPITAREALDummyREAL
PER CAPITAPER CAPITACONSUMERPER CAPITAREAL FINALCONSUMER
YEARRICEFINALRICE PRICEtRICECONSUMPTIONRICE
CONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTIONINDEX1CONSUMPTIONEXPENDITUREPRICE(100Yen/day)
kg/yearEXPENDITURE(kg/kgkgBASE=1995INDEX
BASE=1995BASE=199510THOUSANDBASE=1995
19804.3685.0034.6620200064.665.34.3478641258198077.378.9YEN
19814.3545.0044.6520200164.165.14.3495300673198177.477.8yearLnqLnyLnPrLnqt-1qyPrw
19824.3365.0384.6640200263.764.84.3353145483198276.376.419804.3685.0034.66278.9148.9105.80136.1
19834.3275.0594.6600200363.364.54.3285312335198375.875.74.3545.0044.6524.36877.8149.0104.80137.9
19844.3205.0774.6700200462.964.34.320327584198475.275.219824.3365.0384.6644.35476.4154.2106.00138.9
19854.3125.1084.6810200562.564.04.3071523163198574.274.64.3275.0594.6604.33675.7157.5105.70140.6
19864.2965.1354.6820200662.063.74.2976078643198673.573.419844.3205.0774.6704.32775.2160.3106.70142.9
19874.2755.1704.6770200761.663.54.2860817233198772.771.94.3125.1084.6814.32074.6165.3107.90143.8
19884.2635.2164.6540200861.263.24.2749187612198871.971.019864.2965.1354.6824.31273.4169.8107.90146.3
19894.2545.2584.6480200960.862.94.2613967658198970.970.44.2755.1704.6774.29672.0175.9107.50148.3
19904.2485.2984.6340201060.462.74.2500843862199070.170.019884.2635.2164.6544.27571.0184.2105.00152.9
19914.2475.3214.60604.2480527208199170.069.94.2545.2584.6484.26370.4192.1104.30158.8
19924.2445.3434.62904.2356527248199269.169.719904.2485.2984.6344.25470.0200.0103.00162.9
19934.2375.3574.64804.2264797015199368.569.24.2475.3214.6064.24869.9204.6100.10167.7
19944.1945.3804.73414.1925432524199466.266.319924.2445.3434.6294.24769.7209.0102.40169.2
19954.2175.3914.60524.2075485449199567.267.84.2375.3574.6484.24469.2212.1104.40170.1
19964.2095.4134.58034.1974387999199666.567.319944.1945.3804.7344.23766.3217.0113.81173.2
19974.2005.4184.56244.1914565071199766.166.74.2175.3914.6054.19467.8219.5100.00177.0
19984.1775.4164.52354.1923565199199866.265.219964.2095.4134.5804.21767.3224.297.50181.2
19994.1765.4264.54664.1757774827199965.165.14.2005.4184.5624.20966.7225.395.70186.0
19984.1775.4164.5234.20065.2224.992.10185.0
4.1765.4264.5464.17765.1227.394.20184.0
14.176
LN OFLN OF REALLN OF REAL
LN OFLN OF REALLN OF REALPER CAPITAPER CAPITACONSUMERAVERAGEPER CAPITAREALREAL
PER CAPITAPER CAPITACONSUMERYEARRICEFINALRICE PRICEPER CAPITAREAL FINALCONSUMER
YEARRICEFINALRICE PRICEtCONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTIONINDEXyearRICECONSUMPTIONRICE
CONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTIONINDEXkg/yearEXPENDITURECONSUMPTIONEXPENDITUREPRICE(100Yen/day)
kg/yearEXPENDITUREBASE=1995BASE=1995kgBASE=1995INDEX
BASE=1995BASE=199519804.3685.0034.66210THOUSANDBASE=1995
19804.3685.0034.6620198078.9198078.94.3545.0044.652YEN
19814.3545.0044.6520198177.8198177.819824.3365.0384.664qyPrw
19824.3365.0384.6640198276.4198276.44.3275.0594.660198078.9148.9105.8136.1
19834.3275.0594.6600198375.7198375.719844.3205.0774.67077.8149.0104.8137.9
19844.3205.0774.6700198475.2198475.24.3125.1084.681198276.4154.2106.0138.9
19854.3125.1084.6810198574.6198574.619864.2965.1354.68275.7157.5105.7140.6
19864.2965.1354.6820198673.4198673.44.2755.1704.677198475.2160.3106.7142.9
19874.2755.1704.6770198771.9198771.919884.2635.2164.65474.6165.3107.9143.8
19884.2635.2164.6540198871.0198871.04.2545.2584.648198673.4169.8107.9146.3
19894.2545.2584.6480198970.4198970.419904.2485.2984.63472.0175.9107.5148.3
19904.2485.2984.6340199070.0199070.04.2475.3214.606198871.0184.2105.0152.9
19914.2475.3214.6060199169.9199169.919924.2445.3434.62970.4192.1104.3158.8
19924.2445.3434.6290199269.7199269.74.2375.3574.648199070.0200.0103.0162.9
19934.2375.3574.6480199369.2199369.24.2175.3914.60569.9204.6100.1167.7
19944.1945.3804.7340199466.3199466.319964.2095.4134.580199269.7209.0102.4169.2
19954.2175.3914.6051199567.8199567.84.2005.4184.56269.2212.1104.4170.1
19964.2095.4134.5802199667.3199667.319984.1775.4164.52367.8219.5100.0177.0
19974.2005.4184.5623199766.7199766.74.1765.4264.546199667.3224.297.5181.2
19984.1775.4164.5234199865.2199865.266.7225.395.7186.0
19994.1765.4264.5465199965.165.165.3199965.1199865.2224.992.1185.0
20004.1775.4334.5276200065.264.664.665.364.6200064.664.664.665.1227.394.2184.0
20014.1715.4404.5097200164.764.165.164.4200164.164.4
20024.1645.4474.4918200264.363.764.864.1200263.764.1
20034.1575.4544.4739200363.963.364.563.8200363.363.8
20044.1515.4614.45510200463.562.964.363.6200462.963.6
20054.1445.4684.43711200563.162.564.063.3200562.563.3
20064.1375.4754.41812200662.662.063.763.0200662.063.0
20074.1315.4824.40013200762.261.663.562.8200761.662.8
20084.1245.4894.38214200861.861.263.262.5200861.262.5
20094.1175.4964.36415200961.460.862.962.2200960.862.2
20104.1115.5034.34616201061.060.462.762.0201060.462.0
20114.1045.5104.3281760.660.062.461.7
20124.0985.5174.3091860.259.662.161.4
20134.0915.5244.2911959.859.261.961.2
1
LN OFLN OF REALLN OF REAL11
PER CAPITAPER CAPITACONSUMER
YEARRICEFINALRICE PRICEt
CONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTIONINDEX
kg/yearEXPENDITURE
BASE=1995BASE=1995kg/year
19804.36818122795.00319840314.6619677844078.9
19814.35414143125.00423099744.6523088221077.8
19824.33598269625.03793592384.6636663927076.4
19834.32677816045.05935534344.6601668617075.7
19844.3201512315.07710453824.6695653482075.2
19854.31214050725.10777201514.681046221074.6
19864.29592393565.13463734514.6815925122073.4
19874.27527626475.17014629844.677128219071.9
19884.2626798775.21593680254.6537496242071.0
19894.25419326325.25814364074.6475943633070.4
19904.2484952425.29832141154.6343085638070.0
19914.24706564925.32092827254.6061974074069.9
19924.24420031785.34251080984.6291713381069.7
19934.23700086265.35719182574.648314132069.2
19944.19418989725.37977208134.7340797479066.3
19954.21656219495.39135531644.605170186167.8
19964.20916023675.41251339224.579852378267.3
19974.20020495295.41764742984.5616630716366.7
19984.17745946895.41568393214.5225639044465.2
19994.17592454925.42637741464.5455430705565.1
20004.17959108275.42637741464.5273830705665.365.2
20014.17540468275.42637741464.5092230705765.164.7
20024.17121828275.42637741464.4910630705864.864.3
20034.16703188275.42637741464.4729030705964.563.9
20044.16284548275.42637741464.45474307051064.363.5
20054.15865908275.42637741464.43658307051164.063.1
20064.15447268275.42637741464.41842307051263.762.6
20074.15028628275.42637741464.40026307051363.562.2
20084.14609988275.42637741464.38210307051463.261.8
20094.14191348275.42637741464.36394307051562.961.4
20104.13772708275.42637741464.34578307051662.761.0
20114.13354068275.42637741464.32762307051762.4
20124.12935428275.42637741464.30946307051862.1
20134.12516788275.42637741464.29130307051961.9
12000
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD002CC1AC.doc
2010
A
B
A
B
906t
844t
866t
62t
40t
66.0kg
61.0kg
62.7kg
5.0kg
3.3kg
-
Graph1
18.888481187719471.62014169181947
20.590408224219483.61538582451948
21.855116455519494.32549179851949
23.739508520419505.98059757531950
25.849927019719516.28056381241951
27.494798700619525.23049968971952
28.27306998619534.76765518681953
27.804008201219545.2817003091954
27.198426573419554.8885489511955
27.085395948219563.71049015121956
27.178452310919573.53569326491957
26.376185267519583.54925948051958
25.291516145319593.50537957531959
23.564649660119603.49146713821960
20.673214674619613.58096569751961
18.374213554519623.60723345231962
196320.127159463119633.7184509665
196418.367587999119643.9510985117
196518.440446515719653.9991329793
196617.256162915319663.9401827183
196716.158826890119673.6516853933
196815.771529776419683.5111799867
196914.425960156119693.5407681249
197012.870958216419703.3773807766
197111.974487346519713.398258007
197210.680230889419723.3581018592
19739.673363323919733.5066640588
19748.712514092419744.1894024803
19759.229580617719754.0650567563
19769.432631807319764.0681275765
19779.548244118619774.1612683259
19789.332304256419784.202246453
19799.004444869319794.1596966656
19808.699550229419804.4558671907
19818.626396658119814.5198965064
19828.537747750319824.5148720249
19838.440829673119834.606985992
19848.482497738519844.60924865
19858.453244727719854.5677086865
19868.330292587319864.6178795865
19877.915221369519874.5898997624
19887.183206827319884.5663516374
19896.930875819119894.668486071
19906.515021024419904.5810324738
19916.195056617619914.6487276269
19926.210169820719924.7219625885
19936.576592040419934.8257767097
19946.471595987719944.9359420002
19955.560691266719954.9071720206
19965.311388593219964.9167986293
19974.933210737419974.9370418614
19984.749475408219984.9094119453
19994.605039822419995.0006528267
20004.456692486920004.9821244786
Rice
Bread and Noodles
Year
Share of Expenditures on Rice, Bread and Noodles in Household Food Expendituresnominal price
Sheet1
Sheet1
34.028605482721.116408422755.1450139054
30.060511419124.544212375654.6047237947
28.059413580226.651234567954.7106481481
25.932113296428.730351583354.6624648796
25.00663456830.374947871355.3815824392
23.833471980629.91378658453.7472585646
5
Sheet2
65919659
63999314
62619012
61208862
61098689
60538423
60138284
60228103
60398015
60407864
59647670
58357536
57487318
56547581
55547416
55027319
54317247
53817130
51586906
52577112
51766833
50896757
50516655
49996614
50206487
49486318
Sheet3
18.888481187719471.62014169181947
20.590408224219483.61538582451948
21.855116455519494.32549179851949
23.739508520419505.98059757531950
25.849927019719516.28056381241951
27.494798700619525.23049968971952
28.27306998619534.76765518681953
27.804008201219545.2817003091954
27.198426573419554.8885489511955
27.085395948219563.71049015121956
27.178452310919573.53569326491957
26.376185267519583.54925948051958
25.291516145319593.50537957531959
23.564649660119603.49146713821960
20.673214674619613.58096569751961
18.374213554519623.60723345231962
196320.127159463119633.7184509665
196418.367587999119643.9510985117
196518.440446515719653.9991329793
196617.256162915319663.9401827183
196716.158826890119673.6516853933
196815.771529776419683.5111799867
196914.425960156119693.5407681249
197012.870958216419703.3773807766
197111.974487346519713.398258007
197210.680230889419723.3581018592
19739.673363323919733.5066640588
19748.712514092419744.1894024803
19759.229580617719754.0650567563
19769.432631807319764.0681275765
19779.548244118619774.1612683259
19789.332304256419784.202246453
19799.004444869319794.1596966656
19808.699550229419804.4558671907
19818.626396658119814.5198965064
19828.537747750319824.5148720249
19838.440829673119834.606985992
19848.482497738519844.60924865
19858.453244727719854.5677086865
19868.330292587319864.6178795865
19877.915221369519874.5898997624
19887.183206827319884.5663516374
19896.930875819119894.668486071
19906.515021024419904.5810324738
19916.195056617619914.6487276269
19926.210169820719924.7219625885
19936.576592040419934.8257767097
19946.471595987719944.9359420002
19955.560691266719954.9071720206
19965.311388593219964.9167986293
19974.933210737419974.9370418614
19984.749475408219984.9094119453
19994.605039822419995.0006528267
20004.456692486920004.9821244786
Rice
Bread and Noodles
Year
Share of Expenditures on Rice, Bread and Noodles in Household Food Expendituresnominal price
110.725.1
111.823.9
116.524.9
113.624.8
113.925.9
114.925.8
117.425.8
118.326
117.326.9
115.828.1
111.729
105.831.3
103.431.6
100.131.3
9731.3
95.130.8
93.130.9
91.530.8
90.830.9
89.731.1
8831.5
86.231.7
83.431.8
81.631.7
79.831.9
78.932.2
77.831.8
76.431.8
75.731.8
75.231.8
74.631.7
73.431.6
71.931.5
7131.6
70.431.7
7031.7
69.931.7
69.731.6
69.132.2
66.233.1
67.832.8
67.333
66.732.4
65.232.2
65.132.4
64.632.6
Rice
Wheat
Year
kg
Fig. Per Capita Consumption of Rice and Wheat
12993196519651240919651965
12503196619661274519661966
12483196719671445319671967
12251196819681444919681968
11965196919691400319691969
11948197019701268919701970
11859197119711088719711971
11948197219721189719721972
12078197319731214919731973
12033197419741229219741974
11964197519751316519751975
11819197619761177219761976
11483197719771309519771977
11364197819781258919781978
11218197919791195819791979
1120919801980975119801980
11130198119811025919811981
10988198219821027019821982
10979198319831036619831983
10938198419841187819841984
10849198519851166219851985
10796198619861164719861986
10647198719871062719871987
1058419881988993519881988
10527198919891034719891989
10484199019901049919901990
1051319911991960419911991
10502199219921057319921992
1047619931993783419931993
10022199419941198119941994
10485199519951074819951995
10189199619961034419961996
10107199719971002519971997
990819981998896019981998
990599059905917591759175
200099889988200094909490
20019879.39857316649909.970629320320019028.23190649989058.8039626536
20029826.36108024239878.915148520120028885.19441357568937.7484818534
20039773.7978560529848.134233118420038772.63118938538846.9675664517
20049724.88728690899820.807607179120049223.72062024229319.6409405125
20059673.26776817469790.574996083920059172.10110150799289.4083294172
20069603.06402726699741.26502836420069101.89736060029240.0983616974
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2
Bread and Noodles
Wheat
Observation
MBD002CC1AC.doc
2010
A
B
A
B
906t
844t
866t
62t
40t
66.0kg
61.0kg
62.7kg
5.0kg
3.3kg
MBD002D0A95.xls
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Graph2
Graph3
198078.9
198177.8
198276.4
198375.7
198475.2
198574.6
198673.4
198771.9
198871
198970.4
199070
199169.9
199269.7
199369.2
199466.3
199567.8
199667.3
199766.7
199865.2
65.165.1
65.179245823664.6
64.74812370762001
64.31985320912002
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63.47179174232004
63.0519634242005
62.63491202142006
62.22061916682007
61.80906661422008
61.40023623812009
60.99411003272010
200020101.80.7
kg
Graph4
78.919801980
77.819811981
76.419821982
75.719831983
75.219841984
74.619851985
73.419861986
71.919871987
7119881988
70.419891989
7019901990
69.919911991
69.719921992
69.219931993
66.319941994
67.819951995
67.319961996
66.719971997
65.219981998
65.119991999
64.664.664.6391294482
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Observtion
Baseline
Slow Economic Growth
kg
7
Sheet1
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14.176
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LN OFLN OF REALLN OF REAL11
PER CAPITAPER CAPITACONSUMER
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