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Bob Such Memorial Lecture, 2016Forests, nature and the interacting global crises

Dr Colin Butler17th National Treenet

Symposium; September 1, 2016

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Urban forests, health and well-beingClimate change, forests and well-beingClimate change, “planetary overload” and refugeesConclusion

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Urban forests and health

Recreation

Noise reduction

Air quality

Reduced “heat island” effect; shade

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Part of the two-mile-long lime tree avenue at Clumber Park. ©NTPL/Andrew Butler

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"We do not live on the planet earth but with the life it harbours and within the environment that life creates"

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.. people adapt so unconsciously to their surroundings .. no longer mind the stench of automobile exhausts, ugly urban sprawl, "starless skies, treeless avenues, shapeless buildings, tasteless bread, joyless celebrations“ (Dubos)

Speculated (1950s) that reduced human contact with Nature, then evolving in urban areas, might trigger

increased demand for artificial forms of stimulation, including through drugs ..

50% world population urban

60% urban projected for 2030

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growth in electronic stimulation partial

compensation for less contact with nature?

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Improved air quality

Air pollution: a major cause of mortality and morbidity globally

Sources:

Biomass burning (including wood burning for heat)

Coal burning and industrial sources

Traffic exhausts

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Lung disease

Cardiac disease

Morbidity as well as mortality

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Kõlves, K., Barker, E. & De Leo, D. 2015. Allergies and suicidal behaviors: A systematic literature review. Allergy and Asthma Proceedings, 36, 433-438.

DrawbacksAllergens – far more than a nuisance?

VOCs – precursor to ozone

Leaf litter and falling hazard

Shade in the wrong places

Fires

Public liability

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Reduced “heat island” effect

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Two research ideas (related)

1. Burden of disease from urban air pollution with and without the urban forest

2. Average summer temperatures with and without the urban forest

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Climate change, forests and well-being

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Climate change, forests and well-being

HeatFloods and firesThe carbon budget and forest healthSea level riseConflict and migration

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http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2465/2016-climate-trends-continue-to-break-records/

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stepping outside is like “walking into a fire,” said Zainab Guman, a 26-year-old university student who lives in Basra. “It’s like everything on your body — your skin, your eyes, your nose — starts to burn,” she said.

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stepping outside is like “walking into a fire,” said Zainab Guman, a 26-year-old university student who lives in Basra. “It’s like everything on your body — your skin, your eyes, your nose — starts to burn,” she said.

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Floods and fires

Climate change, forests and well-being

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Image: Mary Anne Sexsmith-Segato/The Canadian Press via AP

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July 29, 2016

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a microburst in Phoenix, AZ, USA July 2016

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Baseline: 1901-1960: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing

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> 20k Louisiana residents rescued from their homes; 12k currently in shelters in the wake of historic, devastating flash flooding

http://www.latim

es.com/nation/la-

na-louisiana-flooding-20160814-

snap-story.html

August 14, 2016

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Flooding in Louisiana, USA, August 2016

http://jezebel.com/the-historic-flooding-in-louisiana-is-looking-pretty-da-1785299122?utm_campaign=socialfow_jezebel_twitter&utm_source=jezebel_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

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Flooding in Khartoum, Sudan, August 2016 http://camuudmedia.com/archives/2016/08/75540

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Flooding in Khartoum, Sudan, August 2016 http://camuudmedia.com/archives/2016/08/75540

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Climate change, forests and well-being

The carbon budget and forest health

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Carbon budget: 1 trillion tones: to have at least 66% chance of limiting global temperature increases to < 2 C

already emitted 2/3rds of this

NDC= Nationally determined contibution

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Mountain pine beetle infections are becoming more intense as weather warms in coniferous forests, like this one in central British Columbia. Infected trees

die slowly, resulting in a forest full of various levels of colorful dieback.

Science 2015

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Red foliage colour indicative of attack by the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

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Climate change, forests and well-being

Sea level rise

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http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

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Credits: Dave/Flickr Creative Commons/CC BY 2.0http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-nasa-web-portal-shines-beacon-on-rising-seas/#

Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Florida

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Flooding is becoming a “normal” nuisance in Miami, as the sea inexorably rises

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Imageshttps://weather.com/science/environment/news/miami-flooding-increase-over-past-decade

CRICOS #00212KMar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida

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2016 2045

200

150

100

50

0

Source: Coastal Risk Consulting, Graphic: Jan Diehm, The Guardian (2016)

2016 2045 2016 2045 2016 2045

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Conflict and migration

Climate change, forests and well-being

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PNAS - 2015

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“a risk multiplier”

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“the most amazing technical abilities, the most

astonishing economic growth, unless they are

accompanied by authentic social and moral progress,

will definitively turn against man”

Pope Paul VI, 1970

Address to FAO on the 25th Anniversary of its Institution (16 November 1970)

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The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating

broader global impacts on property, migration and

political stability, as well as food and water security.

… Past is not prologue … the catastrophic

norms of the future can be seen in the tail

risks of today.

Mark Carney, 2015

(Governor of the

Bank of England)

Carney M. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon – climate change and financial stability. http://wwwbankofenglandcouk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/844aspx

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"When I speak of war I speak of wars over interests, money, resources, not religion”

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Conclusion

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http://trees.wwf.org.au/

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Rod Simpson

66

Some good news for a change

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Solar is now cheaper than coal, says India energy minister

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/04/18/solar-is-now-cheaper-than-coal-says-india-energy-minister/

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Jackson et al, Nature Climate Change, 2016

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1944-1988

(murdered)

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Sonia Guajajara, head of The Association of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil: unimpressed by the interpretation of history in the show:“The images beautiful but hide reality. “Amazon threatened with extinction from logging, fires, growing demand from soy and beef. So much from demand for what people eat in other countries.

We are not folkloric we are real and we are the only ones who can protect the forest.”

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