transport energy report launch 2014 presentation
DESCRIPTION
Presentation from the 2014 Energy in Transport report.TRANSCRIPT
Transport Energy in Ireland
with particular focus on 2007 – 2013
Overview
– Key Characteristics of the Transport Sector
– Private Cars
– Road Freight
– Other Transport Modes
– Overall Trends
– Conclusions
Key Characteristics of the Transport Sector
Share of Total Primary Energy Demand
Transport33%
Industry24%
Residential27%
Commercial / Public14%
Agriculture / Fisheries
2%
Share of Total Primary Energy Demand
Transport32.7%
Electricity33.5%
Thermal33.9%
Transport Sector Fuel Mix 2013
Petrol28.0%
Diesel55.3%
Jet Kerosene14.2%
LPG0.1%
Biofuel2.4% Electricity
0.1%
Transport Sector Fuel Mix 2013
Fossil Fuels98%
Renewables2%~80% Biofuels
Imported
100% Fossil Fuels Imported
~99.5% Transport Energy Imported
Transport Sector Fuel Import Costs 2013
Transport Energy Imports
€3.5 billion
All Other Energy Imports
€3.0 billion
Share of Total Greenhouse-Gas Emissions 2012
Transport18.8%
Agriculture32.1%Energy
21.9%
Residential10.7%
Industry & Commercial
14.7%
Waste1.8%
Source: EPA
58% of Energy-Related Non-ETS Emissions in 2013
35% of Energy-Related Emissions in 2013
Share of Transport Sector Energy by Mode 2013
Road Freight21%
Private car43%
Aviation14%
Navigation1%
Rail1%
Public Passenger
4%
Fuel Tourism6%
Unspecified10%
Private Cars
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Num
ber o
f Veh
icle
s (t
hous
and)
Imported Used Cars New Cars
New Cars & Used Imports
07-13:New Cars down 61%New+Imports down 49%Car fleet down 0.7%
2013: 41% used Imports
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2014 Jan-Jun
G (>225)F (191-225)E (171-190)D (156-170)C (141-155)B (121-140)A (<=120)
Share of New Cars by Emissions Band
67%
95%gCO2/km
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 New Cars 2013 Used Imports
Not available
Band G
Band F
Band E
Band D
Band C
Band B
Band A
Share of Used Imports by Emissions Band
94%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2013
OtherPetrolDiesel
Share of New Cars by Fuel Type
72%
27%
73%
27%
CO2 Emissions of Average New Car
166.1
162.6
120.5
165.8
167.5
121.1
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CO2
g/km
Petrol Diesel
Petrol down 26%
Diesel down 28%
Specific Consumption of Average New Car
2.32
2.30
1.75
2.26
2.32
1.70
1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
MJ/
km
Petrol Diesel
Petrol down 24%
Diesel down 27%
Average Engine Size of New Cars
2.1
1.8
1.51.3
1.5 1.7
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Engi
ne S
ize
Litr
es
New diesel cars New petrol cars All new cars
Private Car Average Annual Mileage
17.57 17.37
16.3914.67
25.3023.69
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ave
rage
ann
ual k
m ('
000)
Petrol & Diesel Combined Private Petrol Cars Private Diesel Cars
Private Car Total Annual Mileage
23.0
33.7
18.717.5
4.4
16.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Tota
l ann
ual k
ilom
etre
s (b
illio
n)
Petrol & Diesel Combined Private Petrol Cars Private Diesel Cars
Road Freight
Heavy Goods Vehicle Activity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Inde
x 19
91 =
100
Vehicle Kilometres Tonnes Carried Tonne Kilometres
Source: CSO
HGV Activity – Absolute Change in tonne-km
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,0001990-2007 2007-2013
Chan
ge in
Mill
ion
Tonn
e km
Delivery to road works/building sitesImport & export
Other work
Delivery to retail outlets
Delivery to factories
Delivery to wholesalers
Carriage of agri-products
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Num
ber o
f Veh
icle
s (t
hous
and)
<1.5 t LGV 1.5-2.0 t LGV 2.0-2.5 t HGV >2.5 t HGV
Total Commercial Vehicle Fleet
HGV
LGV
31% of HGV “Non-relevant”(40% of 2-5t)
1.5t-2.5t
New Light Goods Vehicles by Emissions Band
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2011 2012 2013Band A Band B Band C Band DBand E Band F Band G Unspecified
Estimate of HGV & LGV Energy Demand
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
ktoe
HGV LGV
Other Transport Modes
Other Modes of Transport: Basis of Estimations– Aviation: Kerosene sales
– Rail: Irish Rail
– Bus: CIE, industry data, diesel rebate scheme
– Taxi: NCT data
– Coastal and inland water-way navigation: Marine diesel sales
– Fuel tourism: Dept. ECLG
Aviation Activity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Pass
enge
r Num
bers
(mill
ions
)
Domestic UK Europe Intercontinental Transit
Fuel Tourism
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Euro
Petrol Price Differnetial Between Rep. of Ireland & UK
Fuel Tourism
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Euro
Diesel Price Differential Between Rep. of Ireland & UK
Overall Trends
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mto
e
Industry Transport Residential Commercial/Public Services Agriculture
Primary Energy by Sector
+183% 1990-2007 -26% 2007-2013
Absolute Change in Final Energy by Mode
-800-600-400-200
0200400600800
1,0001,200
Change 1990-2007 Change 2007-2013 Net Change 1990-2013
ktoe
Private car HGV Road Freight AviationFuel Tourism Public Passenger (road) NavigationRail
% Change in Final Energy by Mode 07-13
-50%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
HGV RoadFreight Private car
PublicPassenger Rail Aviation Navigation Total
Transport Energy Efficiency
100 98 95 93 92 91 90 8579 76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Inde
x W
RT 1
995
Transport ODEX Indicator
Transport NEEAP3 Targets
12%
24%
32%
14%
14%4%
Overall Savings 2020 (GWh)
Public Sector
Business
Buildings
Transport
Energy Supply
Cross Sectoral
2%20%
65%
7%6%
Mobility-Transport Savings 2020 (GWh)
Electric Vehicledeployment
Vehicle RegistrationTax and Annual MotorTax rebalancing
Improved fueleconomy of private carfleet (EU Regulation)
More efficient roadtraffic movements
Aviation efficiency
Biofuels Targets
1.2%2.5%
4.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Biofuels Share of Total Petrol & Diesel Consumption
Biofuels Share (%) Weighted Biofuels Share (%)National 2020 target (10%) National 2010 target (3%)National 2008 target (2%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Num
ber o
f Veh
icle
s
Monthly Number of Electric Vehicles Registered
Electric Vehicles
54 New EV in 2013(Total 420)
215 EV Jan–Aug 14
Revised Target of 50,000 EV by 2020
Conclusions
Conclusions
Transport Sector:– Responsible for largest share of primary & final energy
demand and energy-related CO2 emissions
– Almost entirely dependent on imported fossil fuels
– Responsible for just over half of Ireland’s fossil fuel import bill (~ €3.5 billion of imports)
– Experienced 25% reduction in final energy consumption and 26% reduction in CO2 emissions
Conclusions
Private Cars:– Significant shift in the purchasing patterns of new vehicles
toward “A” emissions band and away from petrol towards diesel
Heavy Goods Vehicles:– Activity down by 51% between 2007 and 2013
Electric Vehicles– Increase in sales in 2014 but significant gap to 2020
targets
ConclusionsFurther Work and Data Requirements:
– Data required on specific fuel consumption of HGVs
– Further analysis of LGV and goods vehicles not captured by CSO data
– Improve estimations of bus energy demand
– Improve understanding of rail, aviation and waterway navigation energy demand
– Improve data on effects modal shifting
– Further categorization of remaining unspecified energy
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is partly financed by Ireland’s EU Structural Funds Programme co-funded by the Irish Government and the European Union.
Thank you.
Transport Final Energy by Mode
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mtoe
Private car HGV Aviation Public Passenger Rail
Fuel Tourism Navigation LGV Unspecified
Energy Flows in the Transport Sector
Share of Energy Related CO2 Emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mt C
O2
Transport Residential Services Agriculture Industry
35% in 2013
Share of Energy Related Non-ETS CO2 Emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mt C
O2
Industry non-ETS (2005 on) Agriculture ServicesResidential Transport Target
2020 Target: 20% below 2005 level
58% in 2013
Transport & CO2 Emissions Reduction Targets
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2000 2005 2008 2012 2020
MtC
O2
Transport CO2 Kyoto Target Non-ETS Target
Kyoto target: Average emissions between 2008 and 2012 to not exceed 113% of 1990 levels
Non-ETS target: 2020 emissions to be 20% below 2005 levels