transport and regional integration: european experience stephen perkins 20 october 2011, tokyo
TRANSCRIPT
Transport and Regional Integration: European Experience
Stephen Perkins20 October 2011, Tokyo
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CrossrailRail13 m people€ 15 bn2017
Metro du Grand ParisExpress metro12 m people€ 20 bn + € 12 bn upgrades2025
OresundRoad / RailSea crossing4 m people€ 3 bnJuly 2000
Three Transformative Regional Projects
3.6 million people
40km
Metro Grand Paris
40km
40km
Do we know how to Measure the Impact of Transformative Projects on Jobs and Growth?
• CBA traditionally captures all impacts as users are willing to pay the full economic value of transport services used
• Are there GDP / productivity impacts not captured in direct user benefits?
– Time savings
– Congestion relief
• Macro studies find an infrastructure/growth link
• If increased infrastructure investment accelerates growth, this needs to be reflected in demand forecasts
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Forecasting is Difficult
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1967
1978
19871991
1999
Source: Tom Petersen 2011
Some factors- Oil crises- Downturns- Price competition
Induced Traffic
• Failure to anticipate it can result in project making congestion worse not better
• Over-estimating it results in optimism bias
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Two Key Potential Effects
• Competition and returns to economic density
• Non marginal nature of projects creates transport user behaviour change not captured in the model
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Competition
• New link in a network unlikely to affect competition in industrial or service industry markets
• New regional network or high quality link between regions can increase competition
• Poor transport can be a shield to competition
• Prices fall but peripheral or weaker end can suffer
Agglomeration
• Inter regional link: similar 2 way impact
• Intra-regional enhancement: reinforce agglomeration
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Agglomeration Studies
• Need a lot of data at a detailed level to make the transport productivity/economic output link
• Most look at industry, but service sector more important to many economies and shows bigger agglomeration impacts
• Impacts may be 10 to 20% on top of CBA, Dan Graham’s survery
• Plus Agglomeration -> productivity -> higher VoT for business travel and commuting
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Can we add a general multiplier?
• Transformative projects most likely to show agglomeration benefits
• Big projects can carry costs of agglomeration studies, and input/output modelling: LUTI and CGE
• But size is not everything– Small “unlocking projects” can have disproportionately large impacts
– Some large projects have little impact on key effects, and just result in large direct user benefits
– Infrastructure reaching service sector centres will have more agglomeration benefits than linking industrial centres
• Case by case according to nature of project
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Understand the nature of the project
• Point to point high speed rail ≠ Crossrail or SGP
• Oresund designed not to link two cities but create a region
• Evidence from French TGV studies not very conclusive– Smaller changes than expected, especially in feeder areas
– Major regional centres gain at expense of weaker ones
– Transfer from air
• Project boundaries– Relocation of benefits
– Tax revenues
– Transfers : Lyon to Paris ≠ New York to London?
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CBA+ or Alternative Model?
• Crossrail: CBA+ (incremental improvement on present network)
• SGP: model new network mobility pattern
• HSR: simple financial appraisal if majority of benefits users an no congestion relief
• Other issues:
–Jobs in the crisis,
–growth but when,
–post crisis demand different?
• Unlocking growth
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References • The Wider Economic Benefits of Transport, ITF 2008
– Roger Vickerman, Dan Graham
• The Future for Interurban Passenger Transport, ITF 2009
– Jacques Thisse, How Transport Costs Shape Economic Activity
• Crossrail Business Case, UK Department for Transport
– http://www.dft.gov.uk/topics/crossrail/
• Oresund Fixed Link Evaluation, TRANSTALK
• Oresund Before and After Study, Tom Petersen, KTH
• Oresund Evaluations, VINNOVA
• Major Transport Infrastructure Projects and Regional Economic Development, Roundtable 1-2 Dec 2011, Paris
• Les impacts Economiques et Sociaux du TGV, Yves Crozet
• EC EVATREN Evaluating the State of the Art in Investment for Transport and Energy Networks
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Thank youStephen Perkins T +33 (0)1 45 24 94 96E [email protected]
Postal address 2 rue Andre Pascal75775 Paris Cedex 16