Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

Alberta lower carbon narratives

Luis D. Virla - SPRU/University of Sussex/ University of Calgary: ldvirlaa@ucalgary.ca

Jenny Lieu - TRANSrisk Principal InvestigatorSPRU/University of Sussex, ETHZurich

j.lieu@sussex.ac.uk, jenny.lieu@usys.ethz.ch

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RESEARCH QUEST IONS

Overarching Question:

What are the costs, benefits and challenges associated with afeasible transition pathway?

1. How should the future look like and how might we get there?

2. What changes are required for us to get to our desiredfuture(s)?

3. What are the policy options based on the (sub)nationalcontext?

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Global overview(risk & uncertainty in

climate change policies)

Regional overview

(Sub)national overview

Narratives and model scenarios

Pathway 1 Pathway 2 Pathway 3

Energy Policy

Consumer behaviour (demand)

Demand side policies

Energy Technology

(supply)

Resource base policies

Supply (energy, electricity) policies

Interactions with other policies areas Food, building, transport, services &

manufacturing

Consumer behaviour

Demand policies

Firm behaviour

Supply policies

Multi-governance and scale perspective

NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution)

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Stakeholder inputs

Quantitative inputs

2. Model Scenarios Aggregate (generalisations)

• What resources are needed to get to the desire future? • (e.g. optimization models)

• How might the future look like if the changes and actions are to take place?• (e.g. simulation model)

1. Narratives

• Where do we want to go?• What preferred actions are needed to get there?

• (e.g. technology, behavioral change, policies)

Disaggregate (details)

TRANSRISK PATHWAYS APPROACH

see: https://www.camecon.com/blog/what-is-macroeconomic-modelling-and-why-do-we-do-it/

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INSPIRATIONS FOR LOWER-CARBON NARRATIVES

Local perspective

• Based on Indigenous community: priorities, needs and traditions

• Protect land area (no development) (9-56%)

• Key-wildlife and Caribou Areas

2 HYHHold your

Horses

• Based on Energy Futures Lab• Canadian NDC 2015• Growth of renewables

3M&RMix and round it

all up

• Based on Provincial government• 100 Mt CO2 cap• Trading system• Carbon tax 30$/tonne1

CTHCap the

Hat

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BARRIERS

• Land use change• Air and water pollution • Creation of physical barriers• Noise pollution• Negative health impacts

• Social rejection • Political barriers

Lower-carbon pathways

• Disruption of traditional ways of living

• Drop in profits • Job losses • Contraction of the economy

Barriers

Negative consequences

Political instabilityCummulative effects Economic diversification

Legal roadblocksUncertainties

Stakeholders

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SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS

• All pathways lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions

• Comprehensive multi-sector pathway (M&R) most effective

Model: GCAM

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

20

40

60

80

100

120

140700

800

CTH

CPS

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(Mt C

O2e

q)

Year

M&R

HYH-56%

NO ACTION

8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CTH

CPSG

HG

em

issi

ons

(Mt C

O2e

q)

Year

M&R

HYH-56%

Canadian target (NDC 2017)

CANADA GHG EMISSIONS

NO ACTION

• Only action in Oil Sands is not enough to meet Canadian targets

• Action in other sectors is essential

Paris Accord 2015

Model: GCAM

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2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500.0

4.0x105

8.0x105

1.2x106

1.6x106

2.0x106

2.4x106

2.8x106

3.2x106G

DP

(milli

ons

2017

USD

)

Year

ECONOMY

• Changing markets - Reduction in royalties and stranded assets[6]

• More positive if Canada takes action

• Caution with GDP indicators

Canada action

+0.54 %

Model: E3ME

[ 6] Mercure, J.-F. et al., 2018. Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 588–593

World takes no action

Paris Accord

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2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500.0

2.5x103

5.0x103

7.5x103

2.0x104

2.3x104

2.5x104

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t (th

ousa

nds)

Year

EMPLOYMENT

Model: E3ME

• More positive if jobs in the green energy sector are generated

• Economy more sensitive to global climate policy than local

World takes no action

Paris Accord

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KEY FINDINGS

• Local stakeholder consider maintaining the Alberta Oil Sands in a lower-carbon transition of the energy sector

• Contribution of other (non-oil sands) sectors are crucial to meeting Canadian targets for the reduction of carbon emissions

• Disconnection between global priorities and priorities of local actors represent a risk for meeting global climate goals

• Climate change is not a driver for pushing forward urgent mitigation action

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Methods: Book with Springer

“Understanding risks and uncertainties in energy and climate policy: Multidisciplinary methods and tools towards a low carbon society”

Editors: Doukas, H., Flamos A, Lieu, J,

To be published by end of 2018

Narratives: Book with Routlege

“Transitions narratives towards a Low-Carbon Future: Assessing Risks & Uncertainties”

Editors: Hanger-Kopp S, Lieu, J, Nikas A.

To be published beginning of 2019

Integration of stakeholder and models: Special issue in Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions. Elsevier.

“Assessing risks and uncertainties of low-carbon transition pathways”.

Guest editors: Lieu J., Hanger-Kopp S, Sorman A., van Vliet O.

To be published by end of 2018-beginning of 2019

F IND INGS: OPEN SOURCE PUBL ICAT IONS

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme No. 642260

People of Alberta who kindly participated in the study

Source: Billy Chan

L u i s D . V i r l a - S P R U / U n i v e r s i t y o f S u s s e x / U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l g a r y : l d v i r l a a @ u c a l g a r y. c a

J e n n y L i e u - S P R U / U n i v e r s i t y o f S u s s e x , E T H Z u r i c h

j . l i e u @ s u s s e x . a c . u k , j e n n y. l i e u @ u s y s . e t h z . c h

Thank-you!

RISK & UNCERTAINTIES: POTENTIAL FUTURES