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Spencer DaleGroup chief economist
Transition to low-carbon energy systemBP Statistical Review and Energy Outlook 2019
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Primary energy growth
Annual changeAnnual change
Growth in primary energy and CO2 emissions CO2 emissions from energy use
2
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Contribution to primary energy growth in 2018
Primary energy
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
China US India Otherdeveloping
Asia
Russia MiddleEast
Africa Rest ofworld
Cumulative contribution (RHS)
34% 7% 5% 5%3%
33%
10%15%20%
3
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Annual change
Primary energy growth by fuel
4
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2007-2017 2018
Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Natural gas Oil
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Annual change
Energy demand and carbon emissions
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2013-2017 2013-2017 2018 2018
Primary energy
Fuel mix
CO emissions2
2012-2017 2018
5
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Power
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Contributions by region
Annual change
Growth in power generation
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2007-2017 2018
Rest of worldUSIndiaChina
7
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Contributions by region
Annual change
Growth in power generationContributions by fuel
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2007-2017 2018
Rest of worldUSIndiaChina
Annual change
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2007-2017 2018
OtherGasCoalRenewables
8
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Power sector fuel mix
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Coal Non-fossil Gas & oil
Share
9
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Carbon emissions from global power sector
Annual change
2
10
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Carbon emissions from global power sector
Annual change
2
11
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Carbon emissions from global power sector
Annual change
2
12
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Carbon emissions from global power sector
Annual change
2
13
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Carbon emissions from global power sector
14
Gt CO2
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Carbon emissions from global power sector
15
Add renewable generation of China + US
Gt CO2
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Gt CO
Carbon emissions from global power sector
10% coal-to-gas switchor
16
Add renewable generation of China + US
2
© BP p.l.c. 2019
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
CO2 emissions:longer-term outlook
2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019
CO2 emissions
0
10
20
30
40
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040
Evolving transition
Gt of CO2
CO2 emissions
2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions
Gt of CO2
0
10
20
30
40
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040
Evolving transition
Rapid transition
2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions CO2 in 2040: ET vs RT scenario
0
10
20
30
40
ET
2040
Pow
er
Indu
stry
&B
uild
ings
Tran
spor
t
RT
2040
Gt of CO2Gt of CO2
0
10
20
30
40
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040
Evolving transition
Rapid transition
2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion toe
Global energy demand and fuel mix
0
4
8
12
16
20
2017 Rapid transition Evolving transition
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
2040
2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019
CO2 emissions in RT scenario in 2040
Hard-to-abate carbon emissions
0
4
8
12
16
20
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Power
2Gt of CO
2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019
Hard-to-abate carbon emissions
CO2 emissions in RT scenario in 2040
Decarbonise power sector• Renewables• Gas (and coal) plus CCUS• Energy storage and demand-side-response
Other low-carbon energy sources and carriers • Hydrogen• Bioenergy
Efficiency• Circular economy• Process efficiency
Storage and removal of carbon • CCUS• Negative emission technologies, eg land carbon,
bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)0
4
8
12
16
20
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Power
2Gt of CO
Spencer DaleGroup chief economist
Transition to low-carbon energy system BP Statistical Review and Energy Outlook 2019