traffic parameters for use with mobile6 in ky. - update by jesse mayes, p.e. division of multimodal...
TRANSCRIPT
Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky. - Update
by Jesse Mayes, P.E.
Division of Division of
Multimodal ProgramsMultimodal ProgramsJuly 22, 2003July 22, 2003
Air Quality Timelines
• New Emissions Model MOBILE6 - Now
• New 8-Hour Ozone Standard - 4/15/04
• Conformity due - 4/15/05
• SIP due - 4/15/07
• New PM2.5 Standard - 12/15/04
• Conformity?
• SIP due - 12/15/07
MOBILE6 Requirements
MOBILE 6.2
VMT BY TIME OF DAY
VMT BY YEAR OF VEHICLE
FREEWAY/RAMP VMT DISTRIBUTION
WEATHER
VMT BY VEHICLE TYPE
AVERAGE SPEEDS BY FUNCTIONAL CLASS OF ROAD
Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky.- Update
• VMT
• Ramp %
• Speed (Space Mean Speed)
• Truck %
• Vehicle Age/Type Distribution
VMT
• HPMS data
• Local mileage GPS’ed (TBC by 12/31/03)
• Local ADT based on collector ADT (see KTC report at http://www.ktc.uky.edu)
• Forecasts developed in-house based on trends
Ramp %
• Freeway Mainline/Ramp %• Mainline % Ramp %
• MOBILE6 Default 92.0% 8.0%
•
• Kentucky Urban 92.4% 7.6%
•
• Kentucky Rural 98.5% 1.5%
•
See KYTC Report
Speed
• Starting Point
• Data Collection
• State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs (Rural Areas)
• State of Speed Estimation for Areas with TDMs
• Conclusions
Starting Point1997 HPMS Average Speeds by Functional Class.
not accurate, obsolete
• HPMS Functional Class # Rural/Urban Description 1997 HPMS Average Speeds (mph) • 01 Rural Interstate 50.4• 02 Rural Principle Arterial 47.4• 06 Rural Minor Arterial 34.9• 07Not Rural Major Collector31.5• 08 Rural Minor Collector31.5• 09 Rural Local 31.5• 11 Urban Interstate 49.0• 12 Urban Freeway 50.5• 14 Urban Principle Arterial 28.0• 16 Urban Minor Arterial 20.6• 17 Urban Collector 21.1• 19 Urban Local 21.1
HPMSFunctionalClass #
Rural/Urban Description 1997 HPMSAverageSpeeds(mph)
01 Rural Interstate 50.402 Rural Principle
Arterial47.4
06 Rural Minor Arterial 34.907 Rural Major
Collector31.5
08 Rural MinorCollector
31.5
09 Rural Local 31.511 Urban Interstate 49.012 Urban Freeway 50.514 Urban Principle
Arterial28.0
16 Urban Minor Arterial 20.617 Urban Collector 21.119 Urban Local 21.1
Data Collection - Speeds
• Spot Counts
• Automatic Traffic Recorders (ATRs)
• Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
Data Collection Spot Counts
Average Speed Data from Spot Counts
One county (Hardin County) chosen to assessfeasibility and accuracy
HPMSFunctionalClass #
AverageCollected Spot(Instantaneous)Speed (mph)
AverageSpeedLimit (mph)
# Samples
2 67.4 65 16 58.3 55 47 56.7 52.5 48 65.3 55 49 52.2 45 412 46.6 55 214 58.1 45 117 38.0 35 319 28.1 25 4
Data Collection ATRs
Average Speed Data from AutomaticTraffic Recorders
HPMSFunctionalClass #
AverageSurveyedInstantaneousSpeed (mph)
AverageSpeed Limit(mph)
1 64.7 65
2 59.0 55
6 41.9 55
7 51.2 55
11 64.6 55
12 56.3 55
14 41.5 55
17 42.2 35
Flexibility with data collectionVery few urban locations
Data Collection ITS
Free Flow Speed Estimation Using ITS Data, Louisville, KY.
Route DirectionAverage Free Flow Speed(mph)
I-64 East 60.7
I-64 West 59.8
I-65 North 62.0
I-65 South 57.0
I-71 North 65.5
I-71 South 65.0
High quality data, but limited to 2 cities and oneFunctional class
State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs (Rural
Areas)
• Survey of literature
• Proposed national research
• Speed estimation workshop
• Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)
Survey of Literature
• NCHRP Report 387
• TMIP Travel Model Speed Estimation
• Highway Capacity Manual
Proposed National Research
• Submitted 2 proposals to NCHRP 8-36
Speed Estimation Workshop
• Workshop conducted by Dr. Rich Margiotta of Cambridge Systematics
• Included Kentucky Model User’s Group
• Recommended HERS methodology
Travel Demand Models (TDMs)
(Urban Areas)• Status quo
• Brainstorming sessions/changes
Travel Demand Models (TDMs)(Urban Areas)-Recommendations
• Use of improved BPR equations
• Use of more accurate free flow speeds
• Calibrate models for speed in addition to volume
• Develop standard modeling procedures for statewide usage
Speed - Conclusions
• With MPOs and Consultant Partners, Develop Consistent Methodology for TDMs
• For Other Areas, Develop HERS Solution Based on Kentucky Data Availability
• Provide to Air Quality Agency TDM Speeds where available and Rich M. HPMS/HERS results for other areas
Final MOBILE6 Speed Estimations
Summary of Average Speeds for Nonattainment Areas.
HPMSFunctional
Class #
HERSAverageSpeeds(mph)
Owensboro ModelAverageSpeeds(mph)
AshlandModel
AverageSpeeds(mph)
MarshallCo.
ModelAverageSpeeds(mph)
Scott Co.Model
AverageSpeeds(mph)
FayetteCo.
ModelAverageSpeeds(mph)
OKIModel
AverageSpeeds(mph)
01 71.0 NA 64.9 64.4 61.6 NA 67.7
02 51.6 50.4 40.6 55.4 55.0 NA 45.1
06 42.3 40.2 36.9 54.1 54.2 NA 38.9
07 46.1 33.8 35.9 50.0 50.1 NA 37.5
08 NA 32.9 NA 37.6 54.5 NA 28.3
09 NA 15.1 10.0 35.0 38.6 NA 28.1
11 62.9 NA 55.0 NA NA 49.0 66.3
12 58.8 54.5 NA NA NA 50.5 56.5
14 38.9 31.2 31.8 NA 50.6 28.0 33.0
16 37.1 39.3 29.7 NA 41.5 20.6 32.5
17 37.0 30.7 29.5 NA 45.0 21.1 28.5
19 NA 14.1 10.0 NA 34.7 21.1 26.7
Review of Actions• Rich Margiotta MUG workshop (8/14/02)• TDM/speed workshop (12/6/02)• DVMT/speed data submitted to DAQ for new 8-
hour ozone standard (1/24/03)• Randy Simon used HERS and “local” data to
calculate speeds for AQ submission (5/03)• Highway Speed Estimation for M6 by Kentucky -
presented at AWMA (6/23/03)• Poster at TRB Partnering Conf. (5/16/03)• Speed study initiated with KTC (7/15/03)
Future Directions• Develop standard modeling
procedures for statewide usage
• Investigate other local traffic parameters such as VMT & Speed by time-of-day and vehicle type
• Explore the use of registration data/crash data
Conclusion• It is important to establish a consistent speed
methodology for the state.• It is equally important look at other
transportation related MOBILE6 inputs.• Thank you for your attention.• Questions/Comments?• Email:[email protected]