tradeable and knowledge-based services in the east of scotland john lord yellow book
TRANSCRIPT
Tradeable and knowledge-based services in the East of
ScotlandJohn Lord
yellow book
Background to the study
• ESEP labour market and economic intelligence service– annual report– bespoke reports: mining the data
• communications– seminars: rural, new economy, impact of
redundancies– reviewing policy implications
• focus on economic geography– understanding the programme area
Tradeable and knowledge-based services
• service sector research deficit– but driving employment and output growth
• understanding the spatial distribution of TKB services– links to developing city-region perspective– place matters, especially in the knowledge
economy
• identifying hotspots and lagging areas• framing policy responses
– links to Local Futures work
Tradeable and knowledge-based services
• tourism• financial services• computing (K1)• research and development (K1)• professional and business services (K1)• higher education (K1)• healthcare (K1)• recreation, sport and culture• 367,000 jobs in East of Scotland (33%; GB
29%)
East of Scotland: employment in TKB services, 2002
9
38
64
94
47
7
33
76
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Co
mp
uti
ng
rela
ted
ac
tiv
itie
s
Hig
he
r e
du
ca
tio
n
Fin
an
cia
lin
term
ed
iati
on
He
alt
h a
cti
vit
ies
Pro
fes
sio
na
l &
bu
sin
es
ss
erv
ice
s
R&
D a
cti
vit
ies
Re
cre
ati
on
,c
ult
ura
l &
sp
ort
To
uri
sm
Th
ou
san
ds
Scottish GDP 1963-2003
50
100
150
200
250
300
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Source: Scottish Executive
Total industries Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Production and construction Service sector
Scottish GDP 1998-2004
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1
19
98
Q2
19
98
Q3
19
98
Q4
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q2
19
99
Q3
19
99
Q4
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q2
20
00
Q3
20
00
Q4
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q2
20
01
Q3
20
01
Q4
20
01
Q1
20
02
Q2
20
02
Q3
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q1
20
03
Q2
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q4
20
03
Q1
20
04
Source: Scottish Executive
Total all industries Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Production Construction Services
Service sector GDP Scotland 1963-2003
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
63
19
68
19
73
19
78
19
83
19
88
19
93
19
98
20
03
Source: Scottish Executive
Total industries Distribution, hotels & cateringAll services Transport, communication & storageBusiness, financial, public & other services
Service sector GDP Scotland, 1998-2003
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
Source: Scottish Executive
Retail & wholesale Hotels & catering Transport, storage & communicationFinancial services Real estate & business services Public admin, education & healthOther services
Employment change Scotland, 1995-2002
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Industrial sector Service sector Total employee change
Employment change East of Scotland, 1995-2002
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Industrial sector Service sector Total employee change
Change in total employment, EoS 1995-2002
Change in industrial employment, EoS 1995-2002
Change in service sector employment, EoS 1995-2002
Employment change East of Scotland, 1995-2002
Service sector and all jobs
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%Total sectors
Se
rvic
e s
ec
tor
West Lothian
MidlothianClackmannanshire
East Lothian
Perth & Kinross
Falkirk
Edinburgh City
FifeStirling
Moray
Angus
AberdeenshireDundee City
Aberdeen City
Employment change East of Scotland, 1995-2002Industrial sector and all jobs
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%
Total sectors
Ind
us
tria
l s
ec
tor
Edinburgh City
Clackmannanshire
Dundee City
Aberdeen CityMoray
AngusEast Lothian West Lothian
MidlothianFalkirk
Fife
Perth & KinrossStirling
Aberdeenshire
Employment in TKB services, Scotland (% of total), 2002
Change in TKB service employment EoS 1995-2002
Total
Industrial
Service
TKB services
Analysis of employment change EoS 1995-2002
TKB service employment by Council area, EoS 2002 (% share)
17%
21%
23%
25%
25%
26%
28%
28%
30%
31%
31%
35%
38%
46%
29%
31%
33%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Aberdeenshire
Moray
Midlothian
West Lothian
Fife
Angus
Great Britain
Aberdeen
Scotland
East Lothian
Perth & Kinross
East of Scotland
Dundee
Stirling
Edinburgh
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
TKB services as a % of total employment, EoS 2002
East of Scotland TKB services LQs
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2Sector employment share ratio, East of Scotland/GB
GB
em
plo
ymen
t g
row
th, 1
998-
2002
(%
)
GB job growth tradable service sectors that are well represented in the East of Scotland
GB job growth tradable service sectors that aren't well represented in the East of Scotland
Computing
Recreational, sport & cultural activities
Professional & business servicesHealthcare
Higher educationResearch & development
Financial services
Tourism
East of Scotland ‘cities off’ TKB services location quotient
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2Sector employment share ratio, East of Scotland/GB
GB
em
plo
ymen
t g
row
th,
1998
-200
2 (%
GB job growth tradeable service sectors that aren't well represented in the East of Scotland (cities off)
GB job growth tradeable service sectors that are well represented in the East of Scotland (cities off)
Recreational, sport & cultural activities
Computing
Financial services
Tourism
Higher educationProfessional & business services Research & developmentHealthcare
Tourism: share of total employment 2002
5%
5%
5%
6%
6%
6%
6%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
10%
12%
7%
7%
6%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
West Lothian
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Aberdeen City
Midlothian
Fife
Great Britain
Dundee
Scotland
Aberdeenshire
East of Scotland
Moray
Edinburgh
Angus
Stirling
East Lothian
Perth & Kinross
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Tourism: area location quotients 2002
Financial services: share of total employment 2002
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.7%
1.8%
2.2%
2.5%
3.7%
7.5%
15.4%
3.7%
4.2%
5.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Clackmannanshire
Angus
Falkirk
Aberdeenshire
Midlothian
Aberdeen
Moray
East Lothian
Dundee
Fife
Perth & Kinross
Great Britain
West Lothian
Scotland
East of Scotland
Stirling
Edinburgh
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Financial services: area location quotients 2002
Computing: share of total employment 2002
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
1.1%
1.4%
1.7%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
Angus
Dundee
Falkirk
East Lothian
Perth & Kinross
Stirling
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Midlothian
Aberdeen
Scotland
Clackmannanshire
East of Scotland
West Lothian
Great Britain
Edinburgh
Moray
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Computing: area location quotients 2002
R&D: share of total employment 2002
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
3.0%
3.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Angus
Clackmannanshire
Falkirk
Moray
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Great Britain
Scotland
Dundee
Stirling
Aberdeen
Perth & Kinross
East of Scotland
Edinburgh
West Lothian
East Lothian
Midlothian
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
R&D: area location quotients 2002
Professional and business services: share of total employment 2002
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.7%
5.3%
5.5%
8.1%
3.7%
4.2%
4.5%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Clackmannanshire
West Lothian
Falkirk
Midlothian
East Lothian
Moray
Angus
Dundee
Perth & Kinross
Stirling
Fife
Scotland
East of Scotland
Great Britain
Aberdeenshire
Edinburgh
Aberdeen
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Professional and business services: area location quotients 2002
Higher education: share of total employment 2002
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.9%
3.3%
3.5%
3.6%
4.7%
5.8%
8.7%
2.7%
2.8%
3.4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Clackmannanshire
Angus
Falkirk
Aberdeenshire
Perth & Kinross
East Lothian
West Lothian
Moray
Great Britain
Scotland
Fife
East of Scotland
Aberdeen
Midlothian
Edinburgh
Stirling
Dundee
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Higher education: area location quotients 2002
Healthcare: share of total employment 2002
4.6%
5.9%
5.9%
7.0%
7.5%
7.7%
8.2%
8.5%
9.1%
9.6%
9.7%
10.7%
11.8%
12.0%
7.1%
8.4%
9.0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Clackmannanshire
Aberdeenshire
Midlothian
West Lothian
Great Britain
Edinburgh
East Lothian
Moray
East of Scotland
Aberdeen
Scotland
Fife
Perth & Kinross
Falkirk
Stirling
Dundee
Angus
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Healthcare: area location quotients 2002
Recreation, sport and culture: share of total employment 2002
1.8%
1.9%
2.2%
2.3%
2.6%
2.9%
2.9%
3.0%
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
4.0%
4.7%
5.2%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Stirling
Aberdeenshire
Moray
Great Britain
Scotland
Midlothian
Perth & Kinross
Edinburgh
East of Scotland
Clackmannanshire
Angus
Dundee
Fife
East Lothian
West Lothian
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Recreation, sport and culture: area location quotients 2002
All TKB services: area location quotients 2002
R&D expenditure
Average gross weekly earnings (workplace based)
Local authority/LEC rankings
EDINBURGH
STIRLING
DUNDEE
EAST LOTHIAN
PERTH & K
ABERDEEN
ANGUS
FIFE
WEST LOTHIAN
MIDLOTHIAN
MORAY
AB’SHIRE
FALKIRK
CLACKMANN
All TKB service
s
K1 service
s
EDINBURGH
ABERDEEN
STIRLING
DUNDEE
FIFE
MIDLOTHIAN
PERTH & K
MORAY
WEST LOTHIAN
EAST LOTHIAN
AB’SHIRE
ANGUS
FALKIRK
CLACKMANN
TKB services in the East of Scotland
• Edinburgh dominates all measures– a knowledge-intensive city– spillover into city region
• Aberdeen strong in K1 sectors• Dundee public sector-led• Stirling-Perth corridor?• remote rural areas lagging• Falkirk/Clackmannanshire excluded• polarisation• public sector domination
The Geography of the Service Sector Economy
ESEP seminarFalkirk 3 November 2004