trade liberalisation and the labour market in morocco
DESCRIPTION
Trade Liberalisation and the Labour Market in Morocco. Novella Bottini (University of Pavia, and LIUC) Michael Gasiorek (University of Sussex, and GREQAM). Morocco: Manufacturing Sector. We examine how trade liberalisation with EU and MENA countries impacts on Moroccan workers - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Trade Trade Liberalisation and Liberalisation and the Labour Market the Labour Market
in Moroccoin MoroccoNovella BottiniNovella Bottini
(University of Pavia, and LIUC)(University of Pavia, and LIUC)Michael GasiorekMichael Gasiorek
(University of Sussex, and (University of Sussex, and GREQAM)GREQAM)
Trade and Labour Mkt
Trade and Wages
(Trade Approach)
Trade and Level of Employment(Development
Approach)
Churning
Morocco: Manufacturing SectorMorocco: Manufacturing Sector
0.5
11.
52
Den
sity
-2 -1 0 1 2g_firm2
We examine how trade liberalisation with EU We examine how trade liberalisation with EU and MENA countries impacts on and MENA countries impacts on
Moroccan workers Moroccan workers by changing the composition of by changing the composition of
employment.employment.
Methodology (1)Methodology (1)
EntryEntry POS POS Job Creation Job Creation
HiringHiring
ExitExit NEG NEG Job Destruction Job Destruction
FiringFiring
Methodology (2)Methodology (2)
SUM SUM Turnover = POS + |NEG| Turnover = POS + |NEG| NET = POS – NEGNET = POS – NEG
EXCESS EXCESS Churning Churning
EXC = Between + WithinEXC = Between + Within
TurnoverTurnover
Turnover: Permanent VS Temporary Workers
00.050.1
0.150.2
0.250.3
0.350.4
0.45
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
NEG_Perm
POS_Perm
NEG_Temp
POS_Temp
Entry VS HiringEntry VS Hiring
POS:Entry VS Continuing
0
0.0005
0.001
0.0015
0.002
0.0025
0.003
0.0035
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Entry
Continuing
Exit VS FiringExit VS Firing
NEG:Exit VS Continuing
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
Exit
Continuing
Turnover By Export Status (1)Turnover By Export Status (1)Perm Workers Turnover by ExportStatus
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
SUM_nonExp
SUM_exp
SUM_irreg
Net Employment by Export Status
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 NET_nonExp
NET_exp
NET_irreg
Turnover By Export Status (2)Turnover By Export Status (2)Temporary Workers Turnover by Export Status
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
SUM_NonExp
SUM_Exp
SUM_Irreg
Temp Work Net by Export Status
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
NET_NonExp
NET_Exp
NET_Irreg
Turnover By Size (1)Turnover By Size (1)Permanent Workers Turnover by Size
00.050.1
0.150.2
0.250.3
0.350.4
0.450.5
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
SUM_Small
SUM_Medium
SUM_Large
Permanent Workers NET by Size
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 NET_Small
NET_Medium
NET_Large
Turnover By Size (2)Turnover By Size (2)
Temporary Workers: Turnover By Size
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
SUM_Small
SUM_Medium
SUM_Large
Temporary Workers: NET By Size
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
NET_Small
NET_Medium
NET_Large
Main Results: ReviewMain Results: Review
Turnover: Permanent Workers < Temporary Turnover: Permanent Workers < Temporary Workers;Workers;
Turnover Morocco > Turnover USA and UE;Turnover Morocco > Turnover USA and UE; Change in the trend after 1997;Change in the trend after 1997; Exporters Exporters ~ NonExporters in magnitude BUT not ~ NonExporters in magnitude BUT not
in time trend and composition;in time trend and composition; Turnover: Small > Medium > Large;Turnover: Small > Medium > Large; Turnover in the main sectors is higher than the Turnover in the main sectors is higher than the
average value for the whole economy.average value for the whole economy.
Churning among SectorsChurning among SectorsChurning among Sectors: Permanent Workers
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Excess
Between
Within
Churning among Sectors: Temporary Workers
0.002.004.006.008.00
10.0012.0014.0016.0018.00
Excess
Between
Within
Churning among ExportStatus Churning among ExportStatus GroupsGroups
Churning By Expost Status: Permanent Workers
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Excess
Between
Within
Churning By Export Status: Temporary Workers
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Excess
Between
Within
Churning among Size GroupsChurning among Size Groups
Churning By Size: Permanent Workers
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
Excess
Between
Within
Churning By Size: Temporary Workers
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Excess
Between
Within
Conclusion and Further StepsConclusion and Further Steps The analysis suggests that Turnover is higher among:
Temporary Workers,Temporary Workers,Small Firms,Small Firms,(NO difference among Exporters and NonExporters).(NO difference among Exporters and NonExporters).
Trade Liberalisation increase JR mainly among Temporary Workers.Trade Liberalisation increase JR mainly among Temporary Workers.
Simultaneous JC and JD Simultaneous JC and JD within industrieswithin industries, size and Export Status , size and Export Status Groups account for the vast majority of total turnover (70% on Groups account for the vast majority of total turnover (70% on average)average)
Firm heterogeneity is the key issue to understand job is the key issue to understand job reallocation in the Moroccan economy.reallocation in the Moroccan economy.
Grazie!Grazie!