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1/3/2017 CrisisWatch Print | Crisis Group

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Decemer 2016

Gloal OverviewDCMR 2016

Decemer aw �ghting woren etween rival force in Lia, including over oil facilitie, which couldecalate in Januar and upet the precariou political and economic alance. Turke’ ecuritdeteriorated further following a erie of violent attack on civilian and ecurit force, including a twinoming in the capital, Itanul, claimed an offhoot of the Kurditan Worker’ Part (PKK). Ankarareponded intenifing it crackdown on alleged PKK upporter. In Ruia’ North Caucau, Ilamictate (I)-af�liated militant and police were killed in clahe in the Chechen capital, while in urkinaFao a deadl attack on ecurit force re�ected worening inecurit in the north. In Macedonia andGamia, election led to heightened political tenion. In at Aia, Pongang’ announcement thatpreparation are at an advanced tage for an inter-continental allitic miile tet-launch deepenedinternational concern over North Korea’ weapon and nuclear program.

CRIIWATCH

Tracking ConflictWorldwideCriiWatch i a monthl earl warning ulletin deigned to provide a regularupdate on the tate of the mot igni�cant ituation of con�ict around theworld.

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Trend and Outlook

In Lia, �ghting etween Miratan-led force, nominall loal to the internationall recogniedPreidenc Council (PC), and force loal to eatern trongman General Haftar ecalated throughoutDecemer, riking wore clahe around irte, Jufra or Tripoli in Januar. In earl Decemer Miratan-ledforce took full control of irte from I, ut rift over governance of the cit quickl emerged etween thePC-upported cit council, Miratan militia and the eat-aed government. Moving wet towardTripoli, faction loal to Haftar took control of a militar ae from Miratan force in rak hati, 200kmouth of irte and anti-Haftar force launched unucceful offenive to retake control of oil exportterminal. A we warned mid-Decemer, new �ghting over oil facilitie threaten “a dangerou economicmeltdown”. eond ecurit aitance, international actor mut urgentl prevent an further ecalationin the Gulf of irte, and help tailie the econom.

In Turke, the con�ict etween the tate and PKK militant deepened further. PKK af�liate KurditanFreedom Falcon (TAK) claimed reponiilit for twin om attack in central Itanul on 10 Decemer,which killed 36 police and eight civilian. After the attack counter-terrorim police detained more than900 people on charge of PKK memerhip and terrorit propaganda, ome for pot on ocial media, andthe government inteni�ed it crackdown on Kurdih political repreentative. TAK alo claimed auicide attack on a u carring off-dut oldier in Central Anatolia on 17 Decemer, killing fourteen. Inanother incident in the capital, an I-claimed attack left at leat 39 dead, including 24 foreign national,during New Year celeration.

In Ruia’ North Caucau, the Chechen capital Grozn alo faced deadl I-claimed attack which leftthe cit virtuall paraled on 17-18 Decemer. Crii Group ha previoul warned of the threat of I inthe North Caucau and the need for Ruia to develop a de-radicaliation trateg and addreunreolved grievance. In urkina Fao, ome 40 unidenti�ed gunmen attacked a militar andgendarmerie pot cloe to the Malian order, killing twelve. The aault i the deadliet againt ecuritforce ince upected jihadit and criminal network thought to e aed in Mali egan makingincurion in the north in the lat ear.

Political tenion piked in Gamia and Macedonia following election. Preident Jammeh of Gamiainitiall conceded defeat after loing the 1 Decemer preidential poll to Adama arrow, ut later refued

Trend for Lat MonthDecemer 2016

Deteriorated ituation

urkina Fao, Gamia,

Korean Peninula, Macedonia,

Ruia/North Caucau, Turke,

Lia

Improved ituation

None

Outlook for Thi MonthJanuar 2017

Conflict Rik Alert

Lia

Reolution Opportunitie

None

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/oil-zone-fighting-threatens-libya-economic-collapse

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkeys-pkk-conflict-veers-more-violent-path

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/russianorth-caucasus

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/north-caucasus/north-caucasus-insurgency-and-syria-exported-jihad

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/burkina-faso

https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/database?location%5B%5D=127&date_range=last_12_months&from_month=01&from_year=2016&to_month=01&to_year=2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch#libya



to tep down and called for a new vote. The COWA regional loc aid it could deplo force to thecountr if he doe not leave of�ce 19 Januar when hi mandate end. A cloe reult in Macedonia’nap election on 11 Decemer, which were meant to help ring an end to the countr’ two-earpolitical crii, aw neither of the two main partie win an outright majorit of eat in parliament,leading to increaingl harh rhetoric amid uncertaint over who will form the new government.

Concern aout North Korea’ nuclear program and weapon capailitie mounted after Kim Jong-un inhi New Year’ addre announced that preparation were in their “lat tage” to tet-launch an inter-continental allitic miile. Thi come a the region ha een a creeping ecalation in recent monthover the at China ea etween China and Japan, with oth taking tep to project their aertivene,and the emergence of new tenion etween China and the U.. over apparent move U.. Preident-elect Trump to challenge the decade-old One China polic, including talking to Taiwan’ politicalleaderhip.

Latet Update

Africa

urundi

Three arm of�cer arreted 1 Dec for attempted aaination of preidential advier Will Namitwe 28Nov. Inter-urundian dialogue mediator, former Tanzanian Preident enjamin Mkapa, viitedujumura 7-9 Dec to retart talk, 9 Dec aid legitimac of Preident Nkurunziza hould no longer equetioned; main oppoition coalition CNARD (National Council for the Repect of the AruhaAgreement, Retoration of the Rule of Law) 12 Dec aid it no longer recognied Mkapa a mediator.oldier purued National Force of Lieration (FNL) reel in DRC and clahed with Congolee arm in Kivu 21 Dec, at leat �ve urundian oldier killed, arm denied incident (ee DRC). Tenion etweengovt and elgium and other uropean countrie roe: after elgian enate held conference raiing humanright aue in urundi, govt 8 Dec recalled amaador to elgium; accued amaador of elgium,German, France, Netherland and U of ocotting govt after the failed to attend meeting ondevelopment aitance 13 Dec; police 15 Dec earched home in expatriate neighourhood in Kaondo,ujumura. UN inquir 5 Dec accued 25 urundian peacekeeper of exual aue in Central AfricanRepulic in 2014-2015. Nkurunziza late Dec aid govt would ue African Union over unpaid wage forurundi AMIOM contingent; U upended pament in March.

DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/balkans/macedonia

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/korean-peninsula

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia



Cameroon

oko Haram continued attack againt ecurit force and civilian in Far North at lower rate: militantattacked arm in Djrili, Mao-Mokota ditrict 12 Dec; killed two civilian in Grea, Kolofata ditrict 14Dec and two other in ame, Kolofata ditrict 28 Dec; uicide oming killed two civilian in Mora 25Dec. Following violent protet againt perceived govt marginaliation of minorit nglih-peaker inNov, police 8 Dec �red on nglih-peaking proteter tring to lock ruling Cameroon People’Democratic Movement (CPDM) rall in amenda, capital of Anglophone North Wet region, killing atleat four; proteter urnt police tation.

DCMR 2016

Central African Repulic

Following clahe late Nov around ria, Haute-Kotto prefecture (eat), rival ex-eleka faction Union forPeace in the Central African Repulic (UPC) and Popular Front for the Central African Renaiance(FPRC) clahed again earl Dec in akala and cloe to amari, Ouaka prefecture (centre). Attack 27 Decon diplaced peron camp in atangafo, Ouham prefecture urned over 100 hut, killed three people,injured over 50 and diplaced over 900. Preident Touadéra 1 Dec aid he wanted to negotiate conditionof diarmament with armed group; conomic Communit of Central African tate (CCA) G 11 Decaid it would ait diarmament, demoiliation and reintegration proce organiing talk witharmed group ut conider upporting forced diarmament if negotiation failed. In parallel, everal ex-eleka hardliner allegedl met Angolan Preident do anto to dicu further talk. UN miion(MINUCA) 14 Dec reported “alarming increae” in human right aue ex-eleka and anti-alakagroup, Lord’ Reitance Arm (LRA) reel and Fulani armed group ince Aug 2016. UN report 5 Decaccued ixteen Gaonee and 25 urundian peacekeeper of exual aue and exploitation in CAR 2014-2015.

DCMR 2016

Chad DCMR 2016



Govt 7 Dec releaed eleven oppoition memer arreted in Nov anti-govt protet organied NewOppoition Front for Tranition and Change (FONAC) coalition. Reel group Chadian Front for Changeand Accord (FACT) 13 Dec aid Lian General Khalifa Haftar’ force carried out airtrike on it ae inouthern Lia 10 Dec killing one FACT reel. In viit to Chad French PM and defence miniter 29 Decexpreed upport to govt and emphaied importance of counter-terrorim partnerhip.

Democratic Repulic Of Congo

Govt and oppoition reached new agreement on wa forward after ecurit force repreed protet 19Dec at end of Preident Kaila’ econd term (contitutionall hi lat) and violence continued in eat.Clahe etween ecurit force and people proteting Kaila taing in power in Kinhaa, Luumahi,oma and Matadi 19-20 Dec killed at leat 40 people, 460 arreted. Kaila 19 Dec appointed new govt led oppoition politician am adianga. Leader of main oppoition coalition Raemlement, tienneThiekedi, 20 Dec urged people not to recognie Kaila a preident and continue peaceful protet.Political dialogue including Raemlement mediated Catholic Church (CNCO) reumed 8 Dec afterrief upenion, again upended during 17-21 Dec unret, igned agreement 31 Dec that Kaila willtep down after election to e held end of 2017 and appoint PM from Raemlement to overeetranition; iue till to e negotiated include power-haring at national level and return of oppoitionleader Moïe Katumi. U 12 Dec impoed aet freeze and travel an on even high-ranking ecuritof�cer for their role in repreing ept protet, govt aid U anction “illegal”; U.. ame da impoedaet freeze on Kaila allie including former Interior Miniter varit oha and intelligence chiefKalev Mutond. lectoral commiion 12 Dec announced tart of voter regitration in twelve moreprovince, aid electoral udget at leat $1.8n. Violence continued in eat: in N Kivu armed force(FARDC) clahed with Raia Mutomoki militia in Walikale 7 Dec, nine people killed; UN miion(MONUCO) and FARDC 16 Dec repelled two attack upected Allied Democratic Force (ADF) reelnear eni killing three; upected Mai Mai attacked utemo 19 Dec, peacekeeper, policeman, �vemilitant killed; upected ethnic militia killed eventeen near Nanzale 22 Dec reportedl provokingrevenge attack 25 Dec killing thirteen near eni. In Kivu, FARDC 11 Dec killed urundian NationalForce for Lieration (FNL) reel in Uvira; killed at leat �ve urundian oldier puruing FNL reel 21Dec, urundi denied incident (ee urundi). FARDC 4 Dec clahed with Kamwina Napu militia in Kaaiprovince (centre-outh), thirteen oldier and eighteen militant killed.

OP-D: Coure contre la montre pour un compromi politique en RDC

DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/op-ed

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/democratic-republic-congo/course-contre-la-montre-pour-un-compromis-politique-en-rdc



Repulic Of Congo

upected Ninja militia attacked militar vehicle earl Dec in Mindouli ditrict, Pool department, twopeople killed. UN 9 Dec aid �ghting in Pool had diplaced 13,000 people ince April, warned of rik offood hortage. Oppoition coalition Initiative for Democrac in Congo and the Repulican Front for theRepect of Contitutional Order (IDC-FROCAD) 13 Dec called for end of tate of emergenc in Pool. Threepeople killed in attempted prion reak in razzaville 29 Dec.

DCMR 2016

thiopia

Govt 17 Dec aid it would releae 9,800 people detained for taking part in anti-govt protet ince tate ofemergenc egan 9 Oct, releaed ome 4,000 21 Dec. U.. amaador to UN amantha Power 20 Deccalled on govt to releae deput chairman of oppoition Oromo Federalit Congre.

DCMR 2016

Kena

Oppoition leader Raila Odinga of Coalition for Reform and Democrac (CORD) and Mualia Mudavadiof Amani National Congre (ANC) 6 Dec aid the would form coalition to contet 2017 preidentialelection. Ahead of Aug 2017 general election, primarie of ruling Juilee Part 12-18 Dec marred claim of rigging and voter intimidation. Preident Kenatta 12 Dec accued foreign tate and Wetern-funded NGO of interfering in electoral proce; govt 19 Dec upended U..-funded civic educationproject. Independent lectoral and oundarie Commiion (IC) 16 Dec tarted audit of voter roll. Al-haaa 12-14 Dec detroed four telecommunication mat in Mandera count; Mandera governor aidgroup tring to iolate count, planning major attack. Al-haaa 24 Dec attacked communication matnear Taraj, Wajir count, killing two people. Govt 27 Dec extended curfew in Mandera count until 28March.

DCMR 2016



omalia

Federal parliament inaugurated 27 Dec depite report of irregularitie in delaed voting during monthand preidential vote potponed to 24 Jan a Al-haaa utained attack againt ecurit force andcivilian. lectoral Dipute Reolution Mechanim (DRM) 14 Dec nulli�ed reult for �ve parliamentareat due to irregularitie. Federal Indirect lectoral Implementation Team (FIIT) 17-19 Dec upendedelection of omaliland parliamentar repreentative in Mogadihu after omaliland elder complainedthat polling tation hould e located in AMIOM ae to avoid govt interference. Al-haaa 6 Deccaptured Qeei village, Galguduud; car om attack 11 Dec killed 28 people and injured over 50 nearMogadihu port; militant 15 Dec carried out uicide om attack againt omali National Arm (NA)checkpoint in Afgoe, Lower haelle, killing ix oldier; ame da launched two attack in Mogadihu,killing ix people. Al-haaa aainated two enior of�cial in oao 20 and 26 Dec, attacked Afgoe,Lower haelle 29 Dec, killing at leat eight. Two civilian and oldier killed 22 Dec in exploion inMogadihu. Puntland ecurit force 3-7 Dec recaptured Qandala, ari region from pro-Ilamic tatemilitant.

DCMR 2016

outh udan

Preident Kiir 14 Dec aid govt would hold national dialogue aimed at promoting reconciliation. thnichilluk Aguelek reel under Johnon Olon, part of Riek Machar’ udan People’ Lieration Arm-InOppoition (PLA-IO), clahed with ethnic Nuer reel under Gen. Tangine earl Dec. Govt forcecontinued to �ght PLA-IO reel in quatoria region in outh; reel captured govt poition on DRCorder. U..-propoed UNC reolution including anction and arm emargo 23 Dec failed to winenough vote to pa.

RPORT: outh udan: Rearranging the Cheoard

DCMR 2016

udan DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/report

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/243-south-sudan-rearranging-chessboard



Oppoition activit and partie and armed oppoition udan People’ Lieration Movement-North(PLM-N) called for ta-at-home protet againt auterit meaure 19 Dec following Nov three-datrike; call unevenl oerved in Khartoum 19-21 Dec. ome twent oppoition part memer detainedNov due to call for anti-auterit protet, including udanee Congre Part leader Omer al-Digair,releaed from prion 25 Dec. Conultation etween govt and Darfuri reel group Jutice and qualitMovement (JM) and udan Lieration Movement-Minni Minnawi (LM-MM) in Addi Aaa 1 Dec rokedown over govt’ demand that reel reveal poition. udan 14 Dec aid it had expelled JM. Chiefmediator of African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) Thao Meki tried to retart talkin Khartoum 21 Dec; no development in negotiation chedule reported.

Uganda

Court added terrorim, aggravated roer and attempted murder to murder charge againt Rwenzoritraditional leader Charle Wele Mumere 13 Dec, arreted late Nov after clahe etween ecuritforce and local militia in Kaee ditrict; oppoition leader Kizza eige rie� arreted outide court.

DCMR 2016

Angola

Ruling Popular Movement for the Lieration of Angola (MPLA) 2 Dec aid Preident do anto will note part’ candidate in 2017 election. eparatit reel Front for the Lieration of Cainda nclave(FLC) claimed to have killed ix oldier 5 Dec in clahe in Mongozi-Muno village near uco-Zau.

DCMR 2016

Mozamique DCMR 2016



International mediator left countr earl Dec a talk etween govt and Renamo armed oppoitionremained talled. Nampula provincial aeml memer from Renamo hot dead 15 Dec in Nampula innorth. Renamo gunmen attacked train at Inhamitanga 7 Dec in central province ofala, kidnapped �fteenpeople 7 Dec in arue, Manica province in wet, later releaed. Police 21 Dec accued Renamo of everalattack in central region including on Inhazonia jail, releaing 48 prioner. Unidenti�ed aailantkidnapped man and tole cattle in Zimawe and returned to Mozamique late Dec (ee Zimawe).Renamo 27 Dec declared even-da ceae�re for New Year. Unidenti�ed gunmen hot dead eniorRenamo of�cial and former MP, Joe Naitelé, in Nampula cit 29 Dec.

Zimawe

Preident Mugae con�rmed a ruling part ZANU-PF’ preidential candidate for 2018 election at partconference 16-18 Dec. VP mmeron Mnangagwa 22 Dec aid ecurit force on alert on order withMozamique after unidenti�ed gunmen kidnapped man in Zimawe and killed him in Mozamique,cattle alo reportedl tolen in Zimawe and taken to Mozamique; Mnangagwa lamed Mozamiquearmed oppoition Renamo (ee Mozamique).

DCMR 2016

urkina Fao

upected jihadit and criminal activit worened in ahel region ordering Mali and Niger. In deadlietattack et againt urkinaè ecurit force, aout 40 unidenti�ed gunmen 16 Dec attacked militar andgendarmerie poition in Naoumou, killing twelve oldier. Militar 30 Dec killed upect in Déou.Alleged andit 3 Dec killed two people in ooulé. Gendarme ame da killed one peron tring toenter gendarmerie tation in Koudougou, Centre-Wet region. Preident Kaoré 28 Dec replaced armchief of taff Pingrénoma Zagré with former inpector general of armed force Col-Maj. adou Oumarou.Koglweogo civilian elf-defence group general aeml 3 Dec rejected integration into communitpolice.

DCMR 2016


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Côte D'Ivoire

Legilative election took place peacefull 18 Dec depite tenion within and etween political partieand coalition. Ruling coalition Houphouëtit Rall for Democrac and Peace (RHDP) won aolutemajorit with 167 eat of 254. Independent candidate, including man who refued to follow majoritcoalition line, won 75 eat. Moderate oppoition faction led Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) leader PacalAf� Nguean won three eat. Authoritie temporaril upended everal oppoition newpaper 7 Dec.

DCMR 2016

Gamia

Preident Jammeh 20 Dec refued to tep down after loing 1 Dec preidential vote to Adama arrow.Jammeh initiall conceded defeat after electoral commiion aid arrow won with 43.3% of vote to hi39.6%, ut ruling part 13 Dec �led petition to challenge reult in upreme Court, due for review 10 Jan.ecurit force 13 Dec locked acce to electoral commiion. Preident of Lieria, Nigeria, ierraLeone and Ghana repreenting COWA regional loc viited countr 13 Dec, failed to peruade Jammehto accept reult; COWA 17 Dec appointed Nigerian and Ghanaian preident a mediator, 22 Dec aidtand force “on alert”; Jammeh 31 Dec aid COWA deploment would e “declaration of war” andcalled for new vote. UN 14 Dec aid Jammeh mut leave of�ce at end of mandate 19 Jan.

DCMR 2016

Guinea

In accordance with 12 Oct agreement etween govt and oppoition on maoral and communit election,govt 2 Dec ent revied electoral code to national aeml; main oppoition part Union of DemocraticForce of Guinea (UFDG) 10 Dec aid proviion on govt’ appointment of neighourhood chief violated12 Oct agreement, demanded govt change propoed code; govt 14 Dec umitted new electoral code tonational aeml.

DCMR 2016



Guinea-iau

PM Umaro ioco malo 12 Dec announced new govt, worn in 13 Dec, including three oppoitionAfrican Part for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) diident. UNG an 16 Deccalled on all political takeholder to compromie and reiterated upport to COWA-led mediation. IMF2 Dec reumed pament to govt upended in June over govt’ ailout for private ank.

DCMR 2016

Mali

Diagreement and continued clahe etween armed group prevented deploment planned for 10 Decin northern region Gao and Kidal of joint patrol including main eparatit reel alliance Coalition ofAzawad Movement (CMA), Platform coalition that favour national unit and government force(FAMA); over 100 former CMA memer 29 Dec joined FAMA and pro-govt armed group in Gao. Pro-unit elf-Defence Group of Imrad Tuareg and Allie (GATIA) 1 Dec attacked CMA ae in N’tilit, Gaoregion, killing at leat three CMA. Unidenti�ed gunmen 18 Dec attacked ae of CMA plinter groupCongre for Jutice in Azawad (CJA) in Timuktu region. CMA Preident Ag Intalla 19 Dec aid coalitionwould upend participation in Algier peace proce citing violence and lack of reform and akedAlgeria-led mediation to call high-level meeting to “ave the accord”. upected andit and jihaditcontinued to attack national and international ecurit force in everal area. Mortar attack claimed Anar Dine jihadit group on militar camp hoting FAMA, MINUMA peacekeeper and Frencharkhane troop in Kidal region 4 Dec wounded Chadian lue helmet. arkhane vehicle 8 Dec detonatedID in Kidal region, French oldier wounded. Gunmen 15 Dec amuhed FAMA convo in Mopti region,ame da attacked gendarmerie outpot in ikao region, wounding gendarme efore croing intourkina Fao. Gunmen 17 Dec attacked National Guard outpot in Timuktu region, wounding twoof�cer. Gunmen 6 Dec tormed Niono prion in egou region, freeing 93 inmate and wounding at leattwo guard. French-wi aid worker kidnapped in Gao cit 24 Dec.

DCMR 2016

Niger DCMR 2016



Aia

Govt 27 Dec aid 31 Nigerien oko Haram (H) memer had urrendered to ecurit force in Diffaregion in . Govt 28 Dec announced amnet and reintegration program for former H. Netherland 10Dec promied €1m to International Organization for Migration in Niger to encourage African migrant toreturn voluntaril from urope to home countrie. 900 migrant deported from Algeria arrived in Agadez,central Niger, ame da.

Nigeria

Arm earl Dec launched Operation Recue Final againt oko Haram (H) in N and claimed uccee,ut inurgenc remained unvanquihed. Arm 22 Dec reported 1,880 captive recued and over 500inurgent arreted in previou week; 28 Dec aid another 1,240 upected inurgent including 504children arreted; Preident uhari 24 Dec aid arm had cruhed lat remaining H tronghold. Hcontinued attack: eight female uicide omer carried out �ve attack 9-31 Dec, notal on market inMadagali town, Adamawa tate 9 Dec, killing at leat 56; arm arreted at leat ix other uicide omertring to detonate exploive; H faction leader hekau in 30 Dec video vowed to �ght on; H 31 Decattacked militar in Rann, orno tate ut were repelled and at leat �fteen H killed. In Niger Deltaelectoral commiion reported 70 violent incident during 10 Dec re-run of federal parliament electionin River tate including: political thug amuhed policemen in Uju communit, eheaded two. Violenceetween rival cult group in Omoku, River tate 24 Dec killed at leat eight. Violence ecalated inKaduna tate in north central zone: upected Fulani-Mulim gunmen repeatedl attacked mainlChritian communitie in outhern Kaduna tate; Chritian Aociation of Nigeria 30 Dec reported 808people killed, 1,422 houe and ixteen churche detroed. Relation etween Kaduna tate govt andhia Ilamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) remained tene: high court 2 Dec ordered federal govt to releaedetained IMN leader Irahim Zakzak within 45 da and pa �ne for unlawful detention; Kaduna tategovt 5 Dec declared IMN an inurgent group, vowing to proecute Zakzak; 18 Dec anned all marche. InZamfara tate in NW, andit 12 Dec aducted aout 35 women at Matankari, tate govt next da aidaout 30 recued; 13 Dec aducted twelve men near Yar’ Tahar ahai. At 14 Dec talk andit promiedto top violence; over 1,000 andit 18 Dec urrendered arm to govt in Zurmi local govt area. In N atleat 42 people killed in clahe etween Fulani herder and Tiv farmer in Taraa tate 17-18 Dec. In W,police 28 Dec aid it foiled plan to om Lago ridge locall-aed criminal.

OP-D: To Defeat oko Haram, Nigeria Mut Get Women on oard

DCMR 2016


https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/defeat-boko-haram-nigeria-must-get-women-board



China (Internal)

Xinjiang authoritie reported terrorit attack in Mou Count, W Xinjiang, 28 Dec in which aailantdrove car into govt uilding and et off exploive, killing two people; three aailant hot dead.

DCMR 2016

China/Japan

Chinee defence minitr 10 Dec aid it had lodged repreentation to Toko over Japan’ interferencewith ix Chinee militar aircraft �ing through Miako trait toward Wetern Paci�c in what it calledroutine exercie; aid two Japanee �ghter jet cramled Chinee aircraft from cloe range in“dangerou and unprofeional” manoeuvre counter to freedom of navigation and over-�ight. Toko 12Dec denied cloe-range interference, aid Chinee tatement “extremel regrettale and harmimproving tie”, lodged protet; aid Chinee aircraft did not violate Japanee airpace. Chinee air force15 Dec aid � through Miako trait in earl Dec and late Nov “regular”, imilar operation wouldecome routine. Negotiation over ilateral Maritime and Air Communication Mechanim to manage uchencounter continued with little concrete progre. At 9 Dec talk China and Japan agreed to launchcontact mechanim at earl date. Japanee PM Ae 21 Dec announced Japan would trengthen it coatguard in C to defend diputed enkaku/Diaou iland; govt next da approved record high defenceudget of $43.6n.

DCMR 2016

Korean Peninula

Leader Kim Jong-un in New Year addre 1 Jan aid preparation in “lat tage” for tet launch of inter-continental allitic miile. Thae Yong-ho, DPRK diplomat who defected to ROK in Aug and reportedlmot enior govt of�cial ever to do o, 27 Dec aid Pongang had no intention to give up nuclearprogram and elieved 2017 would provide et opportunit for advancement given leaderhip changein U.. and ROK. Following new UNC anction 30 Nov, Pongang reponded 1 Dec with maiveartiller drill. tate-run media reported drill, oerved Kim Jong-un, imulated trike on militartarget in ROK, including �ve order iland and “reactionar ruling organ” in eoul and other citie.imilar drill took place 11 Dec imulating trike on ROK’ preidential lue Houe. eijing aid new UNC

DCMR 2016



reolution demontrated “uniform tand” of international communit againt DPRK’ nuclear andmiile program, ut urged countrie to implement it in “alanced wa” to avoid humanitarian falloutand negative impact on “normal economic activitie”. Toko and eoul 2 Dec oth announced additionalanction, expanding lacklit of DPRK individual and entitie; eijing aid it oppoed an unilateralanction outide UNC framework. eijing 15 Dec aid Chinee defence cooperation with ROK hould eaed on repect for “each other’ ecurit interet”; followed ROK media report that eijing ignoredrequet ROK nav to viit Qingdao port a punihment for planned deploment of Terminal HighAltitude Area Defene (THAAD) anti-miile tem. ROK Preident Pak Geun-he impeached 9 Dec overcorruption candal; acting Preident Hwang Ko Ahn 18 Dec aid he would carr through exiting foreignpolicie, including THAAD deploment. Michael Flnn, U.. Preident-elect Trump’ pick for nationalecurit advior, 21 Dec called THAAD deploment “appropriate”.

Kuril Iland/Northern Territorie (Ruia/Japan)

Meeting 15-16 Dec, Japanee PM Ae and Ruian Preident Putin agreed to take tep to reolve diputeover iland, including joint economic project.

DCMR 2016

Taiwan trait

Tenion etween China and Taiwan and U.. increaed after U.. Preident-elect Donald Trumpanwered what he decried a congratulator phone call from Taiwanee leader Tai Ing-wen 2 Dec,reaching decade-old diplomatic protocol. eijing initiall called incident “little trick plaed Taiwan”, lodged repreentation with White Houe and Trump’ tranition team. White Houe aid it hadno prior knowledge of call, reaf�rmed it commitment to One China polic. Tai 6 Dec aid call did notignal polic change, Taiwan value regional tailit. eijing 6 Dec called on Wahington not to allowTai’ planned tranit in U.. in Jan; U.. aid topover would continue “aed on longtanding U..practice”. Trump 11 Dec uggeted he might not feel ound One China polic unle the two countriecould make deal on other iue; eijing called principle it “core interet”, aid undermining it wouldeliminate poiilit for cooperation. China 25 Dec lodged “tern repreentation” with Wahington afterU.. paed defence ill including enior militar exchange with Taiwan. China’ �rt aircraft carrierLiaoning 25 Dec paed 90 nautical mile outh of Taiwan via ahi Channel for �rt lue water drill inWetern Paci�c. ão Tomé and Principe 20 Dec announced termination of diplomatic tie with Taiwan;Taipei decried deciion a “extremel regrettale”, aid it could not meet countr’ requet for �nancialaid; eijing reumed diplomatic relationhip with ão Tomé and Principe.

DCMR 2016



Afghanitan

Decline in Talian attack on Afghan ecurit force acro countr continued with winter weather.Gunmen 17 Dec killed �ve airport ecurit guard and their driver in unclaimed attack in Kandahar.ecurit force 21 Dec killed thirteen Talian militant, including high pro�le Mullah Ramazan, andwounded fourteen, including local commander Mullah Manour. Two civilian killed in roadide om inLaghman province 25 Dec. uicide oming in Lahkargah 26 Dec killed at leat one policeman; MPwounded in exploion in Kaul 28 Dec. U.. force continued to attack Ilamic tate (I) target,including 13 Dec airtrike in Nangarhar province’ Achin ditrict killing around a dozen upected I.Talian 10 Dec claimed Mullah Haiatullah Akundzada had conolidated hi poition a leader after twoenior Talian pledged their upport. Commander of U.. and NATO troop in Afghanitan 2 Dec accuedRuia and Iran of helping legitimie Talian in Afghanitan developing political relation with itleaderhip; enate 5 Dec announced invetigation into claim while Mocow aid contact withinurgent were aimed at facilitating peace deal with Afghan govt. Repreentative from Ruia, Chinaand Pakitan met to dicu I threat in Afghanitan 27 Dec, warned of deteriorating ecurit andincreaed I in�uence; Kaul proteted failure to invite Afghan govt. Concern over humanitarianituation continued to mount with OCHA reporting 530,470 people diplaced con�ict in Afghanitanin 2016, highet ince 2012. Attorne general 17 Dec opened invetigation into accuation that Firt VPAdul Rahid Dotum tortured and exuall aaulted relative of former governor of Jawzjan province;Dotum denied allegation, which fuelled further political tenion etween him and Preident Ghani.

DCMR 2016

angladeh

ecurit crackdown continued againt oppoition �gure including paramilitar Rapid Action attalion’reported aduction 3 Dec of three Oppoition angladeh Nationalit Part (NP) activit in Natoreditrict, found dead two da later. NP chair Khaleda Zia pleaded not guilt to corruption charge inpecial court 1 Dec. High court 13 Dec iued three-month ta on anti-corruption cae againt NPtanding committee memer Mirza Aa. Chief Jutice urendra Kumar inha 10 Dec preedparliament to crap contitutional proviion dating from militar-acked caretaker regime in 2007empowering preident to control poting, promotion and dicipline of lower court judge, arguing thecontradict aic contitutional principle. upreme Court 12 Dec ordered law minitr to iuenoti�cation 15 Jan etalihing conduct rule for lower court conitent with eparation of power.Amid continued clampdown on civil ociet, free peech and political oppoition, authoritie earl Dec

DCMR 2016



launched freh invetigation into �nancial affair of Noel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunu. In 18Dec meeting, NP delegation urged Preident Hamid to form interim cainet to overee next nationalelection, due earl 2019. NP 6 Dec umitted propoal to preident’ of�ce to recontitute lectionCommiion and amend Repreentation of the People Order to give militar more authorit duringpolling. ecurit force 20 Dec arreted two upected memer of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen angladeh(JM) faction elieved to e involved in Jul Gulhan attack. Woman elieved to have JM link lewherelf up during police raid on houe in Dhaka 24 Dec. Awami League MP Manjurul Ilam hot dead maked men at hi home in Gaiandha ditrict 31 Dec. A ten of thouand of Rohinga �ed militarcrackdown in Manmar’ Rakhine tate to angladeh (ee Manmar), Home Miniter AaduzzamanKhan 1 Dec aid the would e ent ack to Manmar at “convenient time”; Zia called on govt to giverefugee helter, calling Manmar’ action “genocide”.

India (Non-Kahmir)

everal upected Maoit reported killed in clahe with ecurit force in Chhattigarh during month.Odiha Chief Miniter Naveen Patnaik 8 Dec reported decreae in Maoit activitie in tate during 2016.Authoritie late Nov aid govt’ demonetiation initiative had hit Maoit activitie, prompting increae innumer of urrender.

DCMR 2016

Kahmir

Tenion etween India and Pakitan remained high a exchange of �re etween their force along Lineof Control (LoC) continued. Incident included Indian artiller helling 16 Dec that reportedl hit choolu in Mohra, Kotli ditrict in Pakitan-adminitered Kahmir, killing driver and wounding everalchildren. Hotile rhetoric etween Indian and Pakitani of�cial continued. Outgoing Pakitan ArmChief Raheel harif 29 Nov advied India not to take Pakitan’ “polic of patience for weakne”. IndianHome Miniter 11 Dec warned Pakitan would e roken “into ten piece” if it doe not top cro-orderterrorim. World ank 12 Dec halted two Pakitani and Indian aritration procee under 1960 InduWater Treat; concerned that current tenion could endanger treat, called on countrie to coniderilateral approache to reolving con�icting interet under treat. Clahe etween ecurit peronneland proteter in Indian-adminitered Kahmir continued. Two-da gun attle etween ecurit forceand upected Lahkar-e-Taia (LeT) militant in Arwani, outh of rinagar, 7-9 Dec aw two upectedmilitant killed and triggered anti-India protet; one proteter killed and dozen reported wounded inclahe with ecurit force. Militant killed in clah with ecurit force in Anantnag ditrict 14 Dec,

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parking protet. Phician for Human Right NGO iued report 6 Dec accuing Indian police andparamilitar force of uing exceive indicriminate force againt proteter and locking medical careince tart of current protet Jul 2016. Attack on Indian troop alo continued, including 18 Decupected Kahmiri militant attack on convo in Pampore, killing three oldier. Indian policeman killed upected militant in northern ditrict Kupwara 31 Dec. Indian govt 21 Dec claimed Novdemonetiation initiative ha hurt militant’ �nance, allegedl purring them to carr out erie of ankroerie; Lahkar-e-Taia and Hizul Mujahideen denied role in roer in Pulwarna, Kahmir 15Dec.

Nepal

Local election due April-Ma 2017 till uncertain due to unreolved contitutional dipute anddifference harpening over reform equencing. Oppoition Communit Part of Nepal-Uni�ed MarxitLeninit (UML) and ome ruling Nepali Congre (NC) leader favour poll �rt o ept 2015 contitutioncan e implemented; dienting Madhei partie argue contitutional proviion including newprovincial oundarie mut e amended efore election. upreme Court 21 Dec appointed ix-peronamicu curiae team rief on uitailit of local poll under exiting or retructured adminitrative unit.Depite thee difference, NC 30 Dec taled contitution amendment ill approved cainet 29 Nov andMadhei alliance agreed to upport ill; UML otructed dicuion in parliament, announced treetprotet for Jan 2017. Madhei alliance ojected to contitutionall-mandated Local-level RetructuringCommiion’ recommendation to replace exiting municipal- and village-level entitie with over 720new local adminitrative unit due to conteted provincial oundarie. Former King Ganendra hahexpreed concern over “intolerale” tate of political affair in 21 Dec tatement. Nepal Arm (NA) 29Nov announced �rt ever joint militar exercie with China’ People’ Lieration Arm for Fe 2017; NAregularl conduct imilar exercie with India and U..

DCMR 2016

Pakitan

Judicial commiion report into Aug Quetta hopital attack that killed 74 people releaed 15 Dec,highlighting interior minitr’ inaction over anned extremit group and criticiing Interior MiniterChaudhr Niar for meeting leader of group and allowing them to hold pulic meeting. Report alodenounced militar and civilian intelligence agencie for lack of tranparenc and accountailit.Recommendation include reform of anti-terrorim National Action Plan (NAP); an on all terror groupand dataae; and regitration of all educational intitution including madraa. Pakitan People Part

DCMR 2016



(PPP) MP called for dimial of Niar for failing to implement NAP; Niar called report “one-ided”.xtremit organiation attack continued particularl in Federall Adminitered Trial Area (FATA) andKher Pakhtunkhwa province (KPK), including enior counter-terrorim police of�cer killed unidenti�ed militant 10 Dec in Pehawar. Govt operation againt Talian continued: 4 Dec airtrike inFATA killed at leat twelve upected Talian; 5 Dec operation in alochitan’ Pihin ditrict killed �ve,including alleged matermind of Quetta hopital attack. Police failed to prevent 12 Dec mo attack onAhmadia ect moque in Chakwal, N Punja, depite prior warning. New arm chief General ajwarecontituted countr’ high command and voiced intention to retain militar’ control over internalecurit polic. upreme Court 9 Dec adjourned hearing until earl Jan on invetigating charge againtPM harif’ off-hore holding dicloed in Panama Paper leak. Oppoition-controlled enate 15 Decpaed PPP-ponored ill for parliamentar invetigation into Panama Paper; regarded a unlikel topa in harif-controlled National Aeml.

ri Lanka

Progre on new contitution further delaed: �rt full parliamentar deate on Contitutional Aeml(CA) ucommittee report potponed to 9-11 Jan, alo releae of interim report of CA’ teeringcommittee. enior ri Lanka Freedom Part (LFP) leader 9 Dec announced part would upportdevolution onl within current unitar tate, oppoed an contitutional change requiring referendum;United National Part (UNP) ame da paed reolution endoring need for referendum, reiteratingupport for “maximum devolution within a unitar tate”. oth poition at odd with ucommitteereport and poition of Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Tranitional jutice mechanim alo met withdela: legal tep needed to etalih Of�ce of Miing Peron not taken; cheduled 21 Dec meeting todeliver report of tranitional jutice conultation tak force to preident and PM potponed until earl2017. In 26 Nov peech to LFP Preident iriena announced he would write to U.. Preident-electTrump with requet to “free” countr from continued UN overight on war crime allegation. UNCommittee on Torture (UNCAT) iued trong “concluion” 7 Dec: aid torture in ri Lanka “routine”,criticied continued ue of Prevention of Terrorim Act (PTA) and near complete impunit for torture andother eriou right violation. urprie 23 Dec High Court acquittal of ix accued in 2006 murder ofTamil National Alliance MP Nadarajah Raviraj dealt further low to hope for accountailit for war-timecrime. Uptick in incident of racial and religiou intolerance continued: hard-line head of atticaloauddhit temple Ampitie umanarathana Thera, elieved to e coordinating with Rajapaka-ledoppoition, continued agitation to ettle inhalee illegall in Tamil ditrict. Plan for major rall inatticaloa 3 Dec, deigned to link up with uddhit odu ala ena () march, locked court order.Jutice miniter met leader and umanarathana Thera 21 Dec to dicu monk’ concern.

DCMR 2016



Indoneia

Trial egan 12 Dec of Jakarta’ Chinee-decent Chritian governor auki Tjahaja Purnama on chargeof laphem over remark he made in ept; Purnama denied charge. At leat 200,000 joined third marall proteting againt Purnama 2 Dec; Preident Widodo, Purnama all who earlier lamed “politicalactor” for protet, joined rall praer eion. Police 10 Dec arreted woman and two men near Jakartaupected of planning om attack on preidential palace in Jakarta; alo detonated unexploded om.Plot elieved to e �rt involving female would-e uicide omer; police reported upect had receivedmone and direction from ahrun Naim, Indoneian militant �ghting with Ilamic tate in ria. Policereportedl foiled another om plot in Jakarta 21 Dec, killed three upect; 25 Dec killed two upectedmilitant in hootout in W Java. everal thouand reportedl proteted in Papua town Wamena 10 Deccalling for Wet Papuan independence. Protet held in over a dozen place acro Indoneia calling forWet Papuan independence 19 Dec depite police refuing permit, over 500 reportedl arreted.

DCMR 2016

Manmar

Humanitarian acce to cloed area of N Rakhine tate, where ecurit force were attacked Harakahal-Yaqin (Faith Movement, HaY) armed group in Oct and Nov, remained locked to over 150,000including etimated 30,000 newl diplaced. Ko� Annan-led Advior Commiion on Rakhine tateviited con�ict-affected part of N Maungdaw 2-4 Dec, called for reumed humanitarian acce; call alomade in tatement from fourteen diplomatic miion 9 Dec. UN human right chief Zeid Ra’ad AlHuein 16 Dec accued Manmar of “counterproductive, even callou” approach to crii, cited dailreport of aue including rape and killing. Rakhine ituation prompted regional tenion includingwith Malaia, whoe PM Naji Razak peaking at major protet in Kuala Lumpur 4 Dec called forinternational intervention to top “genocide”. At pecial AAN retreat in Yangon 19 Dec, govt reiteratedit “eriou commitment” to reolving “complex iue”, need for “time and pace”. Preident 1 Decannounced national commiion to invetigate Oct/Nov attack and militar’ repone. Fightingetween govt and Northern Alliance of four armed group – Kachin Independence Organiation (KIO),Ta’ang National Lieration Arm (TNLA), Manmar National Democratic Alliance Arm (MNDAA), andArakan Arm (AA) – in han and Kachin tate inteni�ed over month. Manmar militar further teppedup attack, particularl on KIO poition, and took ke trategic ae, Gidon, from KIO 17 Dec afterintene �ghting including air attack and heav artiller omardment. Fighting caued further 5,000IDP to �ee to KIO HQ at Laiza; UN 20 Dec etimated 15,000 have �ed into China ince 20 Nov. Chineemediation attempt, ringing together Manmar govt’ Peace Commiion and leader of TNLA, MNDAA,AA and United Wa tate Part (UWP) in Kunming 3-4 Dec failed. Clahe reumed 20 Dec etweenTNLA and han tate Arm-outh (A-outh) ethnic armed group in N han tate’ Namtu townhip;

DCMR 2016



clahe alo took place etween AA and govt force in Chin tate’ Paletwa townhip 12 Dec. Militarand ome oppoition partie puhed in legilature for Northern Alliance group and individual militarleader to e declared terrorit; rejected NLD majorit. han tate legilature paed imilarreolution 7 Dec.

IMPACT NOT: WJ: Aia' New Inurgenc

Philippine

Preident Duterte earl Dec igned order creating 25-memer panel to propoe contitutionalamendment etting up federal tem of govt, in order to end con�ict and open up econom; propoalwill e preented to Congre in ix month. Addreing Mindanao Peace Conference in Davao Cit 16Dec, Preidential peace advior Jeu Dureza aid amending contitution would remove “tumlinglock” to peace talk with reel group. After meeting with Duterte 2 Dec, Moro Ilamic Lieration Front(MILF) aid preident want newl expanded angamoro Tranition Commiion (CT), includingrepreentative from Moro National Lieration Front (MNLF), to tart crafting new angamoro aicLaw. MILF leader Murad rahim 27 Dec aid he hoped new law would reach Congre Jul 2017. MILF4 Dec warned that new Ilamic tate (I)-af�liated Maute group complicate peace proce and feed onfrutration caued dela in implementing angamoro agreement. upected angamoro IlamicFreedom Fighter (IFF) militant 15 Dec attacked militar in Maguindanao province; two upectedreel and one civilian reported killed. More than a dozen wounded in two exploion outide churche inMindanao in Dec. Militar renewed offenive againt Au aaf group, reponile for recent pate ofkidnapping, in Jolo earl Dec: ix oldier reported killed in clahe in ulu’ Patikul town 10 and 12Dec; around ten Au aaf alo killed. Militar 12 Dec reported Au aaf had releaed two Indoneianhotage; till hold 23 hotage, reportedl kidnapped four �hermen 20 Dec. Militar 10 Dec reportedMalaian ecurit force had killed Au aaf commander Araham Hamid nicknamed “kidnap king”.Indoneian militar chief 6 Dec warned I attempting to create ae in Mindanao; Duterte 7 Dec aid hinext priorit after hi o-called war on drug will e crackdown on terrorim. Duterte earl Dec rejectedcommunit reel alliance National Democratic Front (NDFP) requet to releae over 130 politicalprioner a con�dence-uilding meaure until ilateral ceae�re agreement i igned; third round ofpeace talk etween govt and NDFP cheduled 18-24 Jan.

DCMR 2016

outh China ea DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/impact-note

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/asias-new-insurgency



China continued militar deploment in C, 8 Dec �ing long-range nuclear-capale H-6 omer alongdiputed territor for �rt time ince March 2015; 15 Dec aid thi wa regular exercie, will e routine.U.. Center for trategic and International tudie report 13 Dec aid atellite image howed Chinamight have uilt large anti-aircraft gun and cloe-in weapon tem on it even arti�cial iland indiputed pratl Archipelago. eijing aid it wa legitimate to deplo “necear militar facilitie” fordefence purpoe, deploment did not mean militariation. Chinee Liaoning aircraft carrier and �veother veel entered C 26 Dec; China aid deploment part of annual plan. China and Philippinecontinued rapprochement. Preident Duterte 11 Dec aid hi govt would �nalie �rearm deal withChina. oth coat guard 15-16 Dec held �rt meeting to dicu forming Joint Coat Guard Committee(JCGC) on Maritime Cooperation. Reuter 9 Dec reported Vietnam ha tarted dredging work on LaddReef on W fringe of pratl, aed on atellite imager; eijing called activit illegal. Chinee andVietnamee vice FM 12 Dec dicued order negotiation mechanim, agreed to expand cooperation onorder control and law enforcement. Confrontational rhetoric etween China and U.. inteni�ed (eealo Taiwan trait). Head of U.. Paci�c Command 14 Dec aid U.. would egin �ing it mot advanced�ghter plane out of Autralia 2017 hould eijing’ “aggreive” action continue; eijing urged U.. to“tick to it pledge of not taking ide” in C. Chinee nav 15 Dec captured U.. Unmanned UnderwaterVehicle (UUV) ome 50 nautical mile NW of Philippine’ uic a. U.. regitered ojection to China’“unlawful eizure”; China aid it retrieved “unknown device” to prevent afet hazard, regrettedWahington’ move to “dramatie” iue, returned UUV 20 Dec.

Thailand

King Maha Vajiralongkorn odindradeaavarangkun, Rama X con�rmed 1 Dec; wore in Priv Councilnext da with even memer from hi father’ Council and three new memer, all retired general andmemer of ruling National Council for Peace and Order; later appointed three more Priv Councillor.National Legilative Aeml 16 Dec unanimoul paed amendment to 2007 Computer Crime Actexpanding tate power to monitor, lock and remove online content; everal people alleged to havehacked govt weite in protet arreted. Police General rivara 30 Nov announced police mid-Octarreted three men from Narathiwat province in deep outh planning attack on ix tourit ite in andaround angkok. Arm 13 Dec handed over to police ix more upect in plot, which oerver elieveugget Mala-Mulim militant intend to follow up on Aug oming with further attack on touritarea outide their traditional area of activit. Govt and MARA Patani (Patani Conultative Council,umrella organiation of �ve Mala-Mulim eparatit group in exile) negotiator met 19-21 Dec inMalaia; dicuion reportedl focued on etalihment of afet zone; main militant group arianRevolui Naional (RN) not involved in dialogue. ix people killed in �ve eparate hooting attack 6Dec in Patani and Narathiwat province. ID attack wounded four order Patrol Police of�cer in ungaiKolok ditrict, Narathiwat 12 Dec.

DCMR 2016



urope & Central Aia

onia And Herzegovina

Contitutional Court 1 Dec annulled reult of controverial 25 ept Repulika rpka (R) referendumapproving continued celeration of 9 Jan R annual da, aing it wa contrar to contitution. RPreident Milorad Dodik and Croat memer of tripartite tate preidenc Dragan Covic 16 Dec announcedinitiative to otruct work of govt, including reform required for progre on U memerhip, untilforeign judge are removed from Contitutional Court.

DCMR 2016

Koovo

thnic er part rpka Lita 28 Dec upended it participation in Koovo govt intitution in line withrequet from erian PM Alekandar Vucic, after Pritina replaced er miniter for local govt foraccompaning erian miniter who viited northern Koovo without authoriation from Pritina.Pritina criticied elgrade’ poition a “detructive and unacceptale”. nvironment minitr 8 Decdeclared contruction of concrete wall er authoritie on er-dominated north ide of ridge inMitrovica earl Dec illegal; North Mitrovica maor Goran Rakic claimed it wa “upporting wall” for newdevelopment project; parliament 29 Dec voted to remove wall.

DCMR 2016

Macedonia

Cloe reult in 11 Dec nap earl general election, which were intended to end countr’ two-earpolitical crii, aw no part win outright majorit, reulting in pike in political tenion and uncertaintover formation of new govt. lection commiion (DIK) announced ruling VMRO-DPMN won 38.06% (51of 120 eat in parliament) againt 36.69% (49 eat) for oppoition ocial Democrat (DM) and 7.33%(ten eat) for ethnic Alanian Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), which wa junior ruling part in

DCMR 2016



previou govt coalition; three maller ethnic Alanian partie won remaining ten eat. Margin of onl afew hundred vote reported in ome place; DM won mot vote in capital kopje, while VMRO-DPMN dominant in rural area. DM and ethnic Alanian part A 12 Dec each umitted eightelection complaint; VMRO-DPMN accued DM of tring to “teal” vote. Thouand of VMRO-DPMN upporter proteted outide DIK 15-17 Dec; addreing them 17 Dec PM Gruevki criticied DIK,aid VMRO-DPMN would not accept election rerun, claimed Wetern diplomat attempting to in�uenceoutcome, alo threatened to increae control over foreign-funded NGO. U.. ema 14 Dec iuedtatement dening rumour that amaador had tried to in�uence DIK. DIK 20 Dec ordered electionrerun in polling tation in Tearce, near Tetovo 25 Dec, however reult did not change numer of eatheld main two partie. Three ethnic Alanian partie met with Alanian PM and FM in Tirana 29 Decto dicu condition for joining govt. Pulic Revenue Of�ce 20 Dec announced it would end �nancialinpector to ome twent foreign-funded NGO, denied claim that inpection were politicallmotivated.

Armenia

Govt 29 Dec aid three of it militar killed in northern part of order with Azeraijan, reult of failedAzeraijani “incurion”; Azeraijan denied accuation, aid Armenia taged provocation, reported oneof it ervicemen alo killed in clah. During 21 Dec viit of Iranian Preident Rouhani, Iranian andArmenian leader �nalied regional ga and electricit deal, igned ilateral cooperation agreement onecurit and cutom.

DCMR 2016

Azeraijan

Azeraijani oldier killed in clah with Armenian force along order 29 Dec (ee Armenia). aku court 8Dec entenced oppoition activit aram Mammadov to ten ear’ prion for drug traf�cking; rightgroup condemned cae a politicall motivated, Mammadov aid he wa tortured into confeion.ecurit ervice reported it hot dead would-e uicide omer in aku 3 Dec; upect previoul jailedfor joining terrorit organiation. Amid continued weakening of currenc, central ank tightenedretriction on tranfer of foreign currenc aroad. During viit of Iraeli PM Netanahu, Azeraijani andIraeli leader igned cooperation agreement including on energ.

DCMR 2016



Georgia

Parliament 15 Dec launched commiion to review contitution and limit power of Preident and PM;Preident announced he would ocott commiion. De facto Akhaz leaderhip mid-Dec ecuredpolitical agreement with oppoition following ear-long tandoff and earl Dec ecalation. De factoAkhazia Preident Raul Khajima 1 Dec met with Ruian Preident Putin in Mocow; next da Akhazoppoition leader Alan zhania, who had een leading call for Khajima to tep down 15 Dec, rie�detained and quetioned for two da Ruian police. Amid increaed tenion, oppoition upportergathered for protet 15 Dec, dianding after govt offered conceion to oppoition including everalgovt poition in election commiion, proecutor of�ce, contitutional court and cainet. Georgian court28 Dec entenced de facto Akhaz order guard (currentl under houe arret in Akhazia) to twelveear’ prion for killing ethnic Georgian in Ma 2016.

DCMR 2016

Nagorno-Karaakh (Azeraijan)

Formal meeting etween Armenian and Azeraijani FM at OC Miniterial Council in German 8-9 Decto further dicu propoed trengthening of OC monitoring in NK, under dicuion ince Aprilecalation, and next tep in peace proce, did not take place; the two miniter met onl informall.Occaional exchange of �re in Northern and N ection of Line of Contact during month; Armenia 5and 8 Dec reported at leat two of it oldier killed. Armenian Preident argan viited militar aeand different ection of front line in NK 8-11 Dec; Azeraijani Preident Aliev alo viited front lineearl Dec. New French Mink co-chair téphane Viconti viited Armenia and Azeraijan mid-month;U.. 30 Dec named Richard Hoagland it new interim Mink Group co-chair. Tenion exacerated deadl clah etween Armenian and Azeraijani force in northern ection of their hared order 29 Dec(ee Armenia).

DCMR 2016

Ruia/North Caucau DCMR 2016



Chechen capital Grozn and it outkirt virtuall paraled 17-18 Dec poradic clahe etweenmilitant and ecurit force. Of�cial ource reported even �ghter killed, four detained, four policekilled. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadrov aid clahe took place near Grozn; footage poted on ocialmedia and numerou Crii Group ource uggeted ome took place within cit. Over 100 relative of�ghter uequentl detained ecurit force, ome reportedl ordered to leave Chechna; loodfeud declared on them at pulic rall in Grozn on 30 Dec. Ilamic tate (I) claimed reponiilit for17-18 Dec attack and poted video of the eleven oung attacker prior to operation, three of them withknive, pledging allegiance to I leader Al-aghdadi, wearing to die and threatening killing and attackon Ruian and Chechen police and authoritie. Media reported Chechen pecial tak force eingdeploed to ria after camera-phone video poted online 6 Dec howing preparation. Novaa Gazetainvetigation claimed Chechen authoritie have een taked with urgentl forming two 600-trongattalion; alo linked 17-18 Dec Grozn attack to revenge for Ruian role in Aleppo and attempt tomake Chechen �ght on ide of Aad regime. Five individual upected of haring leaked videodetained; twelve oldier reportedl �red for refuing to go to ria. Ruian Federal ecurit ervice(F) 4 Dec aid it had killed I leader and “emir” of I Caucau province Rutam Aelderov and fouraociate during raid near Dagetani capital Makhachkala previou da. Aelderov upected of eingreponile for Dec 2013 oming in Volgograd among other attack. Authoritie reported one policeof�cer and two upected militant killed in clah in Dagetan 29 Dec. According to F end-of-earreport, 129 militant including 22 leader killed in counter-terrorim operation during 2016, 42 terroritattack prevented, 84 people prevented from leaving countr to join terrorit organiation.

Moldova

reakawa Trannitria region held preidential election 11 Dec; vote not recognied Moldovan govtand international communit. elf-declared parliament chief Vadim Kranoelk won with 62% of vote;later aid he would trengthen region’ partnerhip with Ruia.

DCMR 2016

Ukraine

Month aw udden upurge of �ghting in eat reulting in igni�cant caualtie. In one of larget claheKiv reported nine Ukrainian oldier killed and nine wounded, and 25 eparatit killed in clahe near

DCMR 2016



vitlodark, cloe to Dealteve, in �ghting which tarted 18 Dec. Govt and eparatit 21 Dec agreedinde�nite ceae�re to tart 24 Dec; ide traded accuation that other had violated ceae�re. NATO ecGen Jen toltenerg 7 Dec called for continued diplomatic preure and anction on Ruia until itrepect Fe 2015 Mink Agreement; cited “maive increae in ceae�re violation” in eat, hundred ofexploion ome involving heav weapon anned under Mink. UN human right of�ce report 8 Dec aidcivilian in eat facing human right aue, “eriou lack of ecurit”. U leader 15 Dec agreed toextend anction againt Ruia over Ukraine for another ix month. U.. 20 Dec introduced expandedlit of Ruian individual under anction. UNGA 19 Dec paed reolution recogniing Crimea a“temporaril occupied” Ruia, condemning aue and dicrimination againt Crimean Tatar andethnic Ukrainian in Crimea. U.. congre 8 Dec paed defence ill including $350mn militar andecurit aitance for Ukraine, authoriing uppl of lethal weaponr; fund partl contingent on Kivaddreing corruption and wate in militar. ill alo an militar-to-militar contact etween U.. andRuia. Preident Porohenko 29 Dec aid Ruian ecurit ervice “directl or indirectl” wagingcerwar againt Ukrainian tate intitution. Kiv 18 Dec announced it would nationalie countr’larget ank, Privatank, in move praied U. Parliament 21 Dec paed long-delaed 2017 udget,keeping de�cit at 3% of GDP in line with IMF guideline. Rare ign of dient in eparatit entitie LNRand DNR: former LNR leader Valer olotov 10 Dec criticied LNR’ top leader Igor Plotnitk, linkinghim to aaination of mot of entit’ ke militar commander. In DNR, former leader AlexanderKhodakovk 6 Dec criticied DNR leader’ corruption, incompetence and aue in erie of mediainterview.

RIFING: Ukraine: Militar Deadlock, Political Crii

Cpru

Greek Cpriot leader Anataiade and Turkih Cpriot leader Akıncı 1 Dec agreed to reume UN-ackedreuni�cation talk in Geneva 9 Jan. oth ide to preent map with propoal for entitie’ oundariewithin a federation 11 Jan; multipart conference focuing on iue of guarantee and ecurit to tart12 Jan, with participation of power that guarantee contitutional ettlement on iland (Greece, Turkeand UK). Greek Cpriot and Turkih Cpriot negotiator earl Dec tarted to meet three time a week totr and make progre on outtanding iue ahead of Jan talk.

DCMR 2016

German DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/briefing

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/b85-ukraine-military-deadlock-political-crisis



Twelve people killed and 56 injured hijacked truck driving into erlin Chritma market 19 Dec inattack claimed Ilamic tate. Chief upect, Tuniian national, killed Italian police near Milan 23Dec; German police arreted upected accomplice, alo Tuniian, in erlin 28 Dec.

Turke

Twin oming in central Itanul 10 Dec killed 36 police and eight civilian and wounded over 150; PKKaf�liate Kurditan Freedom Falcon (TAK) claimed reponiilit. Crackdown on Kurdih People’Democratic Part (HDP) and Democratic Region Part (DP) repreentative inteni�ed after attack,including two HDP MP arreted 13 Dec. Counter-terrorim police alo detained 924 people on charge ofPKK memerhip and terrorit propaganda, ome for pot on ocial media. uicide car om targetingu carring off-dut oldier killed fourteen and wounded 55 in Central Anatolian cit Kaeri 17 Dec;TAK claimed reponiilit. Following attack, nationalit mo targeted nineteen HDP of�ce aroundcountr and part HQ. Clahe etween tate ecurit force and PKK militant in continued at lowerintenit. At leat 39, including 24 foreign national, killed and 69 wounded in Ilamic tate-claimedattack on nightclu in Itanul during New Year celeration. Turkih militar operation to take controlof al-a in N ria continued (ee ria). Ankara engaged in intene diplomatic effort with Ruia, Iran,U.. and uropean capital to ecure evacuation of civilian/reel militant from Aleppo during month.Turkih police of�cer 19 Dec hot dead Ruian amaador peaking at galler in Ankara in apparentprotet againt Ruian militar role in ria; Mocow and Ankara next da aid murder would not affectilateral relation or cooperation on ria. National ecurit Council 30 Nov announced commitment toprevent PKK/PYD etalihing new tronghold in Iraq’ injar province “ all mean necear”.Parliamentar commiion 30 Dec approved contitutional reform that would give preident executivepower with weak check and alance and decreae power of parliament; draft ill to e deated inparliament Jan.

OP-D: Turke and Iran’ Dangerou Colliion Coure

DCMR 2016

Kazakhtan

France cancelled extradition of Kazakh diident Mukhtar Alazov to Ruia 9 Dec, tating Ruia’

DCMR 2016


https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/turkey-and-irans-dangerous-collision-course



requet politicall motivated. Alazov, charged with emezzling illion of dollar in Ukraine, Ruia,and Kazakhtan, ha �nanced oppoition media and group in Kazakhtan for almot two decade.Authoritie 21 Dec announced the had detained ixteen upected memer of anned Ilamic groupTak�r wal-Hijra in counter-terrorim operation in Almat, Aktoe and Atrau region.

Krgztan

Referendum on contitutional reform 11 Dec won acking of 79.56% of voter; turnout 42.07%, one oflowet in Krgztan’ hitor. Contitutional amendment tranfer ome preidential power to PM whowill have authorit to directl appoint and dimi local adminitration leader, and appoint and dimiminiter with parliament’ approval. Preident gained power to pick and dimi local judge withparliament’ approval and upon advice from Council of Judge, and directl appoint judge toContitutional Court. Critic argue change will undermine judicial independence and diminih propectof judicial reform. New contitution alo remove tate’ oligation to retore right of and/orcompenate it citizen according to international treatie – elieved to e reaction to April deciion UN Human Right Committee to releae ethnic Uzek human right activit Azimjan Akarov.Amendment widel regarded a major victor for Preident Atamaev allowing him to maintainin�uence after hi term end in 2017. Change alo introduce language de�ning marriage a etween manand woman. Local election held ame da a referendum: no major evidence of vote uing, howeverome report that tudent and pulic ector worker were forced to vote for ruling ocial DemocraticPart of Krgztan (DPK), which won in ever ditrict except one town in N. Three otherparliamentar partie, Repulika-Ata-Jurt, Krgztan, and Onuguu-Progre, performed well acrocountr.

DCMR 2016

Tajikitan

Foreign Minitr 8 Dec ued Collective ecurit Treat Organization’ (CTO) meeting to initiate jointtatement calling participation of oppoition activit at OC meeting unacceptale; followed eptparticipation of activit from Ilamic Renaiance Part of Tajikitan (IRPT) in OC’ annual HumanDimenion Implementation Meeting. CTO meeting late Dec dicued giving Tajikitan more aitancein ecuring it order with Afghanitan. Ruian amaador aid urria want to expand it air force inTajikitan. Govt 5 Dec retored accreditation of Radio Free urope/Radio Liert journalit which hadeen revoked late Nov.

DCMR 2016



Latin America & Cariean

Uzekitan

Acting preident havkat Mirzioev elected Preident in 4 Dec election with 88.6% of vote; turnoutreported at 87.83%. OC reported election “devoid of genuine competition”; U called for continuationof “igni�cant reform” made ahead of election. Mirzioev 7 Dec propoed introducing direct electionfor regional governor and cit maor, currentl appointed preident. Mirzioev 14 Dec introduceda new PM former Deput PM Adulla Aripov, dimied in 2012 after eing aociated with corruptioncandal involving late Preident Karimov’ daughter Gulnara. Aripov’ cainet revealed 15 Dec; amongother change, previoul in�uential �nance miniter Rutam Azimov replaced. Mirzioev 23 Dec metwith viiting Kazakh FM rlan Idriov.

RIFING: Uzekitan: Reform or Repeat?

DCMR 2016

Colomia

ighteen-month Revolutionar Armed Force of Colomia (FARC) demoiliation and arm handoverproce of�ciall egan with “D-Da” 1 Dec: FARC egan to concentrate in cantonment, ut ome iteencountered prolem due to poor infratructure, lack of food. FARC formall regitered a a politicalpart and announced the ix repreentative for FARC in Congre 14 Dec – repreentative are notmemer of FARC, do not repreent it new political part and will have no vote, ut will e ale toparticipate in congreional eion. Contitutional Court 13 Dec gave green light to fat-trackmechanim for rapid approval of etimated 50 law required to put term of peace accord into law,including amnet law paed 28 Dec for thouand of junior FARC and ome militar accued of minorcrime. Virtuall no FARC armed violence reported during month, though FARC 13 Dec expelled �ve mid-level commander who operated mainl in department Guaviare for creating diident faction withome 190 �ghter, according to govt. Oppoition continue to accue govt of “ignoring democrac” puhing peace deal through congre and uing fat track. Progre on peace proce with LN remainedeluive: further round of talk around certain iue et to reume 10 Jan, ut no formal tart tonegotiation. Group continued violent attack, mainl in eatern department Arauca, killing twopolicemen 13 Dec and two oldier 18 Dec; alo lamed for 29 Dec attack on checkpoint N of ogota inwhich one policeman killed. Violence againt ocial leader continued, including murder of local leaderin Caquetá, Nariño, olívar and Putumao department in outh/ during Nov. Pre reported 2016 total

DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/briefing

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/central-asia/uzbekistan/84-uzbekistan-reform-or-repeat



ranging from 94 to 117. Different actor including UN warned of armed group �lling power vacuum left FARC. ome group, mainl left-wing civil ociet organiation, lamed paramilitarie for violence;govt 26 Dec aid unclear who i reponile.

Venezuela

Oppoition MUD coalition upended participation in Vatican/Union of outh American Nation(UNAUR)-led “national dialogue” ahead of third plenar meeting 12 Dec, aing condition notfavourale to return to tale 13 Jan until govt ful�l commitment in �rt agreement from 12 Nov,including allowing humanitarian aid into countr, releaing political prioner, retoring authorit ofNational Aeml (AN) and appointing two replacement memer to electoral authorit (CN); govta dialogue i till active. upreme Court (TJ) 13 Dec appointed CN oard memer without referenceto AN. Chavita congreman lía Jaua 21 Dec aid AN directorate to e elected 5 Jan will e illegitimateo long a TJ’ Jan 2016 contempt ruling againt AN till applie. Govt 31 Dec freed former oppoitiongovernor Manuel Roale from houe arret, alo �ve tudent activit held ince 2014. Freh plenarcheduled for 13 Jan, three da after Maduro egin �fth ear of hi preidenc – after which he couldtep down (or e removed) without triggering freh election. ocial tenion increaed 11 Dec afterMaduro announced countr’ highet-denomination anknote 100, repreenting almot half cah incirculation, would ceae to e legal tender 15 Dec, alleging maive U..-led conpirac to removeanknote from countr. Following da aw long queue outide ank, wave of protet and lootingacro countr, mot notal in Ciudad olívar; govt uequentl extended date that 100 note wouldremain legal tender until 20 Jan. Govt ordered cloure of Colomian and razilian order to top 100note “eing returned to Venezuela”; order re-opened 20 Dec. Mercour 2 Dec upended Venezuela’memerhip over non-compliance with it acceion treat. Maduro and FM Rodríguez denounceddeciion; Rodríguez 14 Dec travelled to Mercour meeting in ueno Aire ut wa denied acce.

RPORT: Venezuela: Tough Talking

DCMR 2016

Guatemala

Preenting International Commiion againt Impunit in Guatemala (CICIG)’ ninth earl report 24Nov, CICIG Commiioner Iván Veláquez expreed concern aout threat of return to impunit, aidcorruption in Guatemala “tructural” and that CICIG will invetigate crime of “recent and the omewhatmore ditant pat.” Warning came a Guatemala’ economic elite continued to openl criticie action

DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/report

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/venezuela/venezuela-tough-talking



of CICIG and Attorne General’ of�ce. ffort to retore pulic trut in ecurit apparatu continued,including large inter-intitutional operation againt extortion racket elonging to “18 Neighourhood”and “Mara alvatrucha” gang 7-8 Dec.

Haiti

Jovenel Moïe, 48-ear old anana farmer appointed former Preident Martell a candidate depitehaving no prior political experience, expected to e con�rmed winner of 20 Nov preidential election 3Jan. acked uine communit, epeciall agriculture, Moïe ha emphaied need for economicrevival of countride and rural development. Three of nine Proviional lectoral Council (CP) memer28 Nov refued to validate reult, mainl due to irregularitie and lack of tranparenc during votecount. Memer of Core Group, mot importantl U.. and Organization of American tate (OA),recognied reult, however political oppoition refued to do o and tarted legal proceeding tochallenge them. CP 5 Dec pulihed preliminar reult of 20 Nov legilative election: no politicalpart won majorit of vote, however Moïe’ Tèt Kale part gained mot ground winning eat for threeenator and four deputie. Former reel leader Gu Philippe, wanted U.. and Haitian authoritie fordrug charge, mone laundering and armed attack on police tation, won enate eat for Grand’Aneregion. UN 1 Dec of�ciall aumed reponiilit for 2010 cholera outreak.

DCMR 2016

Mexico

Internal attorne general invetigation againt ex-director of Criminal Invetigation Agenc, TomáZerón, 17 Dec found that ke evidence in cae of 43 diappeared tudent from Aotzinapa, which agencpreented under Zerón’ guidance, wa otained torture. New evidence provided in ook chiefinvetigator Chávez Flore and journalit Anael Hernández point to involvement of 27th Infantrattalion tationed in Iguala in diappearance. Authoritie 9 Dec arreted Alfredo eltrán Guzmán alia“l Mochomito”, nephew of arreted inaloa Cartel kingpin Joaquín “l Chapo” Guzmán and on ofAlfredo eltrán Leva, arreted leader of eltrán Leva Cartel; “l Mochomito” conidered ke actorehind recent violence in inaloa. enate 12 Dec tarted deating new law that aim to regulate pulicecurit reponiilitie of militar; militar ha repeatedl demanded uch a law, initing it troop areconfronted with tak the are not quali�ed for, alo requeted fewer human right retriction. DifferentIntitutional Revolutionar Part ex-tate governor continue to e invetigated for corruption charge;new Veracruz governor Miguel Ángel Yune aumed of�ce 1 Dec promiing anti-corruption reform.

DCMR 2016



Middle at & North Africa

Irael/Paletine

gpt preented reolution to UNC 21 Dec inter alia condemning Iraeli ettlement contruction anddeclaring it violation of international law; etting 1967 line a ai for negotiation etween partie;and calling on countrie to differentiate etween Irael and ettlement. gpt next da potponed vote,reportedl following preure from Irael and involvement U.. Preident-elect Trump. Four otherUNC memer puhed ahead with vote on ame text 23 Dec, which paed after U.. atained. Iraelcalled reolution “hameful”; Paletinian Preident Aa called it “trong upport for the two-tateolution”. Amid pike in tenion etween Iraeli govt and Oama adminitration, which aid it hadrefrained from exerciing it veto in repone to Iraeli ettlement expanion, Irael 26 Dec aid it hadevidence that U.. orchetrated reolution; White Houe denied. Jerualem municipal govt ame da aidit will move ahead with thouand of new home in Jerualem. U.. ec tate Kerr in 28 Dec peechdefended UNC vote and trongl criticied Irael’ expanion of ettlement a threat to two-tateolution and peace. France 22 Dec aid it will convene planned peace conference in Pari 15 Jan.Controverial “legaliation ill” retroactivel legaliing ettlement uilt on private Paletinian land inWet ank paed �rt two vote in Kneet 6 and 7 Dec. UN human right chief 8 Dec aid it wouldviolate international law and “erioul damage the reputation of Irael around the world”. Followingupreme Court’ Oct deciion to dimantle illegal Amona ettlement, negotiation etween Amona’reident and Netanahu led to agreement 18 Dec to relocate Amona to different piece of land on amehill, douling it ize and paing legaliation ill. Claim Paletinian to e owner of deignated landthrew agreement into dout. taff of U.. Preident-elect Trump reiterated intention to relocate U..ema from Tel Aviv to Wet Jerualem depite concern over impact on diplomatic proce; Trump 16Dec named hi choice of new amaador to Irael, pro-ettler opponent of two-tate olution, lawerDavid Friedman. Aa 19 Dec tripped parliamentar immunit of �ve lawmaker, all allie of Aacritic Mohammed Dahlan, who wa entenced in aentia to three ear’ prion Paletinian court 14Dec for emezzlement, charge he aid were politicall motivated.

DCMR 2016

Jordan

Four Ilamit militant 18 Dec clahed with ecurit force in Karak in outh; four militant, even policeand three civilian reportedl killed, Ilamic tate claimed reponiilit. Police clahed with upectedmilitant 20 Dec near Karak, four police and one upect killed, two arreted.

DCMR 2016



Leanon

PM aad Hariri 18 Dec announced formation of thirt-miniter cainet ringing together repreentativeof countr’ major political partie. Hizollah hold two eat in cainet; cloe allie of Hizollah Geranail and Yacou al-arraf hold foreign affair and defence portfolio repectivel. Cainet alo includenew anti-corruption and women’ affair minitrie. Hariri aid new govt’ top priorit to “preerveecurit againt the �re ravaging our region”. Ahead of parliamentar election due Ma 2017 – �rt ineight ear – Hariri aid new govt will prepare new electoral law, traditionall ource of igni�cantdiagreement among political faction aout repreentative tem. Arm conducted raid in al-Qar inN rian order 27 Dec after a oldier wa killed previou da.

DCMR 2016

ria

Regime force, Ruia and Iran-acked foreign �ghter with comined aerial omardment and groundoffenive forced reel out of Aleppo mid-Dec dealing low to non-jihadit reel and oppoition’political amition. Ten of thouand of civilian �eeing oming entered regime-controlled areawhere pro-regime force rounded up �ghting-age men. After everal failed attempt UN, U.. andreel to negotiate ecure withdrawal of remaining reel and civilian from Aleppo, Mocow andAnkara rokered deal 13 Dec to evacuate all reel and civilian to reel-held area wet of Aleppo.Militia acked Iran, not part to deal, locked implementation and Tehran demanded evacuation ofwounded �ghter and civilian from two hia village eieged reel in Idli, Foua and Kafraa.Fighting reumed in Aleppo 14 Dec until new agreement reached 16 Dec. vacuation from Aleppoegan alongide preparation to withdraw wounded �ghter, women and children from Foua and Kafraauntil ala�-jihadit Jund al-Aqa group and unidenti�ed anti-regime gunmen 18 Dec torched everalue going to collect hia evacuee. Turke aited talk to enure ecurit for ue and evacuationfrom Aleppo reumed 19 Dec and continued until 22 Dec; at leat 35,000 civilian and �ghterevacuated. UNC ame da paed reolution authoriing UN peronnel to monitor proce. Ilamic tate(I) 11 Dec recaptured Palmra from regime and allie. Ruia, Iran and Turke 19 Dec at Ruia-hotedummit agreed to tr to roker talk etween regime and reel and expand ceae�re to area eondAleppo, et principle for agreement. Turkih-acked reel and Turkih oldier continued offenive topuh I out of al-a in north; �ghting inteni�ed late Dec, Ruian jet hit three I target near al-a29-30 Dec. Ceae�re etween pro-regime and non-jihadit reel force, rokered Ruia and Turke,egan 30 Dec; appeared to e largel holding in north during �rt 48 hour, ut not around Damacu

DCMR 2016



where regime militar advance continued.

COMMNTARY: What Come After the lood attle for Aleppo?

ahrain

ecurit force 21 Dec clahed with upporter of prominent hiite cleric Aatollah Ia Qaim gatherednear hi home to prevent hi arret and deportation; govt revoked hi citizenhip in Ma for promotingectarianim. Court 12 Dec upheld nine-ear entence of oppoition hiite cleric Ali alman.

DCMR 2016

Iran

U.. enate 1 Dec paed ten-ear extenion of Iran anction Act (IA) and ent to White Houe forPreident Oama’ ignature; in procedural protet Oama 15 Dec let act ecome law ut declined to ignit. Preident Rouhani aid IA renewal violated, at leat in pirit, Jul 2015 nuclear accord etween Iranand P5+1 (3+3) countrie and ordered Iran’ atomic energ organiation to develop nuclear propuliontem. FM Zarif 17 Dec requeted meeting of Joint Commiion overeeing deal implementation toreview IA extenion. International Atomic nerg Agenc director viited Iran 18 Dec, con�rmed govtha remained committed to deal. Govt igned deal with oeing 11 Dec and Airu 22 Dec for aircraftproviion and moved toward deal with energ giant Roal Dutch hell, Total, Gazprom andchlumerger. Govt 14 Dec locked Ruia-Turke deal to evacuate reel and civilian from Aleppo inria until reel let wounded �ghter and civilian leave two hia village (ee ria).

OP-D: Turke and Iran’ Dangerou Colliion Coure

DCMR 2016

Iraq DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/commentary

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/what-comes-after-bloody-battle-aleppo


https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/turkey-and-irans-dangerous-collision-course



U..-acked govt force and allied militia made low progre in campaign to retake Moul in north fromIlamic tate (I): govt force 6 Dec launched freh aault from northern Moul retaking al-Qirawan andal-Hada ditrict and from outh retaking Wahda neighourhood, 29 Dec egan new puh on threefront into eatern ditrict. om attack 20 Dec on of�ce of Iranian oppoition part Democratic Partof Kurditan (PDK) in Ko anjaq, eat of ril, killed even people. Three om claimed I includingone uicide om killed 29 people in aghdad 31 Dec. World ank 20 Dec approved $1.485n loan to govtto improve pulic ervice deliver and timulate growth.

Yemen

Two uicide oming claimed Ilamic tate in Aden in outh 10 and 18 Dec each killed over 50oldier. U.. militar 22 Dec aid it killed 28 memer of al-Qaeda in the Araian Peninula in Yemen innine trike etween 23 ept and 13 Dec. Huthi reel and force aligned with former Preident alehtepped up effort to capture Taiz in outh, continued to launch rocket into audi Araia and tried totake more audi territor. audi-led coalition inteni�ed oming in north 13 Dec epeciall aroundanaa and Hodeidah. U.. ec tate Kerr viited audi Araia 18 Dec to tr to peruade all partie toaccept ceae�re and upport UN roadmap to end con�ict.

DCMR 2016

Algeria

Algerian-ritih journalit Mohamed Tamalt, entenced in Jul to two ear in prion for “defamingpulic authorit” and offending Preident oute�ika, died 11 Dec after hunger trike.

DCMR 2016

gpt DCMR 2016



uicide oming claimed Ilamic tate (I) at Cairo’ Coptic cathedral 11 Dec killed 25 people,wounded 49. oming claimed Ilamit militant group Ham in Cairo 9 Dec killed ix police. omingin Kafr el-heikh governorate in Nile Delta (north) ame da killed civilian, injured three police.Prominent Ilamit �ghter Adel Haara, entenced to death in 2014 for killing 25 oldier in N inai in2013, executed 15 Dec depite militant threat to ignite “volcano of jihad”. upreme Contitutional Court3 Dec upheld law anning protet. Govt 15 Dec aid trace of exploive detected on odie retrievedfrom gptAir �ight that crahed in Ma 2016. In inai, armed force 6 Dec aid the killed eight I-af�liated “inai Province” militant during large-cale ecurit weep in heikh Zuweid, Rafah and al-Arih.

Lia

Ilamic tate (I) defeated in irte ut �ghting etween rival force ecalated, riking greater violentconfrontation around irte, Jufra or Tripoli in Jan. Miratan-led force, nominall loal to internationallrecognied Preidenc Council (PC), acked U.. airtrike, earl Dec claimed full control of irte. Riftover control of cit emerged mid-Dec: PC-upported cit council 11 Dec elected civilian maor cloe toeatern trongman General Haftar, while Miratan militia 13 Dec appointed rival militar governor andeat-aed govt appointed it own (remote) governor for irte. In move wetward toward irte, Haftar’Lian National Arm (LNA) 9 Dec took control of ke militar ae from Miratan force in rak hati,200km outh of irte. Haftar 14 Dec called on of�cer and oldier to e read for offenive to “free”Tripoli. Two Ilamit-leaning anti-Haftar coalition and force loal to former local trongman IrahimJedran 7 Dec launched offenive to retake control of oil export facilitie in oil crecent from Haftar’ LNA,LNA puhed ack force to Jufra with airtrike. PC denied it upported offenive ut PC’ DefenceMiniter Al-arghathi in Govt of National Accord reportedl provided legal and �nancial aitance toattacker. LNA 26 Dec carried out “pre-emptive” airtrike againt camp of enghazi Defence rigadeloal to PC in central Jufra region. Operation mid-Dec reumed at two ke oil �eld, harara and l Feel,and connected Raaina pipeline in wet after two-ear hutdown. Rival militia clahed in Tripoli earlDec, at leat eight people reportedl killed including civilian. Militar plane af�liated with Lian AirForce loal to PC 22 Dec crahed of Tripoli, killing oth pilot. odie of two police found in Tripoli 26Dec, unret followed in ome ditrict. In eat, LNA 17 Dec aid it had taken control of eafront uildingwet of enghazi ditrict of Ganfouda; uicide attack claimed I 18 Dec targeted LNA in Ganfouda, atleat even oldier killed. Two men 23 Dec hijacked dometic �ight from aha en route to Tripoli,diverted it to Malta, releaed paenger and urrendered.

COMMNTARY: Oil Zone Fighting Threaten Lia with conomic Collape

DCMR 2016

https://www.crisisgroup.org/latest-updates/commentary

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/oil-zone-fighting-threatens-libya-economic-collapse



Morocco

ecurit force 1 Dec arreted eight people with upected link to Ilamic tate during raid in Fez andTangier (north). Conultation on govt line-up remained tuck reportedl due to inter-partdiagreement. uropean Court of Jutice 21 Dec ruled two political and trade deal with U were validut did not appl to Wetern ahara (ee Wetern ahara). Oppoition Itiqlal part 24 Dec aidMauritania wa Moroccan territor, raiing tenion etween countrie.

DCMR 2016

Tuniia

Govt 2 Dec aid ecurit force dimantled 160 jihadit cell in �rt ten month of 2016. ecurit force 29Dec aid the dimantled al-Qaeda-linked militant cell active near oue. Tuniian engineer MohamedZaouari, reponile for developing drone for Paletinian Hama’ zzedine al-Qaam rigade, killedin fax (eat) 15 Dec. Hama 17 Dec accued Irael of directing killing, ecurit force arreted everalpeople for upected involvement. National ecurit Director General Adelrahman Haji Ali 15 Decreigned, reportedl in protet at preidenc’ interference in interior minitr. Parliament 10 Decadopted 2017 udget without propoed amendment to reduce tax evaion and potpone civil ervicealar increae, following protet union. Govt 14 Dec aid ritih oil and ga compan Petrofacwould halt ga production after two week of renewed protet on Kerkennah iland people eekingjo in compan.

DCMR 2016

Wetern ahara

uropean Court of Jutice 21 Dec ruled two political and trade deal etween Morocco and U were validut did not appl to Wetern ahara (ee Morocco).

DCMR 2016

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