Risk and impact

Kate Sayer

May 2014

Traditional approaches

Identify all the risks you can think of

Rank them for impact and likelihood

Multiply the factors to prioritise risks

Present in a risk register

Variations on this?

What are the drawbacks?

Spurious accuracy – numbers are misleading

Different levels need different formats – operational versus high level strategic

Risk registers require you to pinpoint a risk event – this is unrealistic

Creates illusion that you are managing risks by this process

A different approach

Focus on the management of risks

Work on organisational capability to respond to unforeseen events

Differentiate risks

internal, predictable and we can act to prevent the event occurring

external and outside our control or arising from the strategy

Operational risks

Managing day-to-day risks is part of the normal management job

Managers describe the actions and processes in place to manage risk

Then map back to the risks

Identify gaps or overlaps

Assess how effective these actions are

Notes on further actions or changes

Framework

6

Controls - procedures Risks

Aims and objectives

Planning

Accountability

Training

Systemic

Monitoring

Staff welfare

External review

Strategic risks – for SMT

Focus on external risks and risks arising from the strategy

Cannot easily be assigned to one team

More likely we will have to respond rather than control

Possibility of high impact events

Likelihood difficult to assess – too subjective

Strategic risk register

Identify major risks and impact

Consider responses and how to manage

Assign responsibility for management of risk

Regular reporting and monitoring of risks

Getting to better impact

Impact = outcomes

resources put in

Increase the

volume or quality

of outcomes and

outputs

Reduce the level

of resources (time

and effort) put in

What can we affect?

Which beneficiaries we work with

What we do How we do it Who does it How long Outcomes

Elements of cost

Improving outcomes

At any given point, there are a range of possible outcomes

How can you enhance the chances of the route to better outcomes being chosen?

Improving outcomes

Performance target Control anger towards children for 6

consecutive months

Outcome

All children live in safe, non-violent, nurturing homes

Parenting

programme

Target for

individuals on

programme

Improve

parenting skills

Tracking causal links

Call for an appointment for parenting programme 100

Appear for an assessment and first session 60

Attend first three and demonstrate new skill 40

Attend all sessions and demonstrate 3 skills 25

Control anger for 3 months 15

Control anger for 6 months 13

No. people Milestones

Reduce time and effort put in

Understand what is already good and could be even better

Look at contribution made by activities to outcomes (outputs)

What does not contribute and we could stop doing?

Leave it to luck?

Or manage your luck…