tpp 추진현황과 주요국의 입장
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tppTRANSCRIPT
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2013-13 2013. 6. 5
(4279) (5293)
(TPP; Trans-Pacific Partnership) 12
o FTA 17 , GDP 38% 26%
TPP , , , , , 21
o (sensitive products)
o , , ,
o , TPP
o , TPP
o TPP , TPP (RCEP; Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)
TPP ,
TPP( )
(TPP; Trans-Pacific Partnership) (FTA) , 12
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o FTA ( ) , , , , , 21 *
* TPP
o 3.15 4.20
TPP GDP 38% 26% 12 * * GDP 15 164 1 GDP 47
TPP 1)
()GDP
()1GDP
()FTA 2)
3) 3) 3) 31,194 150,757 48,328 _ X O X 12,790 58,970 46,108 X _ X 3,444 17,811 51,716 O X 2,248 14,905 66,289 O
441 1,618 36,688 X O 1,725 2,509 14,552 O O O O 11,373 11,583 10,184 O O X 3,001 1,785 5,948 O O O O
39 164 41,662 X O X X 2,896 2,879 9,941 O X X 531 2,656 50,000 O O O O 8,932 1,227 1,374 O O X X
: 1) , GDP 1 GDP 2011 2) O , TPP 3) , ASEAN
: IMF,
TPP FTA , 2006 APEC(21) FTA (FTAAP; Free Trade Areaof the Asia-Pacific)
o APEC ASEAN+3 FTA, ASEAN+6 FTA*, TPP FTAAP (2010.11)* ASEAN+6 ASEAN+3(ASEAN , , ) ,
TPP 1. 2. 3. FTAAP FTAAP
TPP
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II TPP
1.
TPP 2006.3 , , , 4 P4(Pacific 4)* * (Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership)
o 2008 2010.3 P4 , , , TPP 10 *
* TPP ,
o 2012.6 , , 4 12 ** 2012.11
TPP 2010 17 TPP
2006 P4(, , , ) 2008 , TPP (9)
2010 P4 + 4(, , , ) TPP (3) 2 (6), 3 (10) (10) 4 (12) 2011 5 (2), 6 (3), 7 (6), 8 (9), 9 (10)10 (12) 2012 11 (3), 12 (5) 13 (7), 14 (9) , (10) 15 (12) 2013 16 (3) (4) 17 (5.155.24, )
o TPP P4 TPP P4 ** TPP
P4 TPP P4 TPP
, ,
80% , 10
, 10
(10 ): :
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TPP 2011.11 2012 o (single undertaking)
TPP
2.
( ) TPP P4 10 , TPP FTA (95%)
o 12
o *(sensitive products) * FTA
, , , ** (sugar)
o ** , , ,
1)
0.0 2.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 2.8 3.7 6.5 9.82) 4.5 8.3 5.3 : 1) 2011 , 2) 2010
: WTO
: WTO
- - , - , , - , - , - , - , , - , - , - - , - , , , : , (2013.2)
( )
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o () ,
WTO (TRIPS) * , (, , ), (, )* (World Intellectual Property Organization) WPPT(WIPO Performance andPhonogram Treaty, ) TPP ,,
special 301* (, , , , , )* (Omnibus Trade Act) 182 (USTR) (PFC) 69 ,
o () , , ()
o () *(Core ILO Principle) , TPP (, )* , ,
,
o () , , (MEAs)
o () , (, , )
III
TPP
< >
2006 FTAAP TPP TPP
o , TPP FTAAP FTA TPP
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( ) TPP ,
o RCEP(ASEAN+6), FTA TPP * *** Financial Times(2013.5.22.) TPP (No one will say it out loud, but the unstated aim of the TPP is to create a high leveltrade agreement that excludes the world's second-biggest economy)
** 2010 2014 5 2 200 2013 TPP
( FTA ) TPP FTA
o EU FTA , , TPP ** ,
o FTA (competitive neutrality)
< >
TPP 4.20 7
o , , FTA TPP
( ) TPP
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o TPP , , GDP 0.6%p ** GDP 2.9 , 2.6, 3, 0.5 3.2
o (JA) TPP ,
1)
()
() 65 (%)
2)(%) 1990 592 521 1,977 33.1 41.9
1995 428 498 1,725 43.5 44.3
2000 426 350 1,561 52.9 39.0
2005 443 308 1,212 58.2 37.6
2010 451 225 955 61.6 32.6
3)
: 1) 12ha 50 2) 3) 2008
: , Japan Statistical Handbook(2012)
( ) TPP * FTA ** *** For Japan, the fact that TPP is an 'anyone but China club' is decisive.(Financial Times, 2013.5.22)** 2007 ASEAN+3 FTA ,
ASEAN+6 FTA
o TPP FTA
FTA TPP FTA
(FTA ) , EU FTA TPP
o FTA TPP FTA , , * 2008 FTA 13 FTA APEC
o ,
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FTA 1)
: 1) FTA (%)
: , 2011.1
1)
2011 20121 93.49 93.592 78.44 84.233 84.53 84.234
, 76.68 73.535 63.83 65.01 : 1) 10
(HS 2), =100 : KERI
< >
,
o P4 , , ,
o , , FTA , , , , ASEAN
TPP TPP
TPP
P4
TPP
, 1
FTA ,
, FTA , FTA TPP
FTA
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TPP
< >
TPP TPP
o TPP , ,,
TPP
o TPP TPP ( )
TPP ASEAN * (RCEP; Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) * 16(ASEAN 10, , , , ) FTA ASEAN 2011.11 ** RCEP
o RCEP ASEAN TPP RCEP 2
2012.11 ASEAN RCEP
o RCEP
o FTA , , RCEP ASEAN FTA
TPP RCEP
o TPP , RCEP TPP (5.30)
< ASEAN >
ASEAN TPP * TPP ASEAN * ASEAN 1976 1992 ASEAN (AFTA) 2015 ASEAN (AEC)
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o ASEAN TPP 10 , , 4
, , TPP
o ASEAN ASEAN FTA , EAFTA(ASEAN+3) CEPEA(ASEAN+6) RCEP
ASEAN RCEP
TPP , ** (USTR) TPP (Trans-PacificPartnership negotiations maintain strong momentum", 2013.5.24)
o 17 (5.1524)
, ,
o 10 ,
3
GDP 40% TPP
o ,
, TPP
o '(pivot to Asia) TPP *(TPA: tradepromotion authority) * 1994 (fast track authority) 2002 W. Bush 2007 . , 90
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o ** , .
TPP
TPP RECP EU FTA * (TTIP;Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) , * 2
o FTA *(mega-negotiations) * Petri TPP, RECP, TTIP 3 mega-negotiations (Petri, A. Peter, TheTPP and the new landscape of world trade, 2013.3)
, , 2011-25, ,2011.6
Congressional Research Service, The Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Issues for Congress,
2013.4
------------------------------------------, Japans Possible Entry Into the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Its
Implications, 2012.8
Guoyou Song, Wen jinYuan, Chinas Free Trade Agreement Strategies, Center for Strategic and
International Studies, 2011
Meredith Kolsky Lewis, The Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Paradigm or Wolf in Sheeps Clothing?,
Boston College International and Comparative Law Review, 2011
Petri, A. Peter, "The TPP and the New Landscape of World Trade", 2013.3
---------------------, Michael G. Plummer, Fan Zhai, 2011, The Trans-Pacific Partenrship and Asia-Pacific
Integration : A Quantitative Assessment, 2011.10
Shen Minghui, A Cost Benefits Analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement : A Chinese
Perspective, National Institute of International Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social
Science, 2012
, "TPPRCEP: ASEAN,"91, 2013, "FTA," 2013.3.18
, ,"(TPP)," 2013.2.12
, "TPP," 2013.4.23
UFJ&, "TPP," 2013.4
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TPP
1
- - 10
2
- - TPP ,
3 4 (SPS) 5 (TBT) 6 (trade remedies) safe guard
7 - Bumiputera( )
8 , - WTO (TRIPS) * ,
9 , , 10 , 11 ,
12 -
13 14
15 , -
16 , -
17 , -
18 19 20 21
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RCEP
TPP RCEP*(Regional Comprehensive EconomicPartnership, ) * 16(ASEAN 10, , , , ) FTA ASEAN 2011.11
o ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6 FTA (EAFTA CEPEA) RCEP EAFTA CEPEA
FTA () (EAFTA: East Asia Free Trade Area)
(2005.4)ASEAN+3()
(CEPEA:Comprehensive Economic Partnership in
East Asia)
(2007.6)ASEAN+6
(ASEAN+3 ,, )
o 2012.11.20 16 2013 2015 * 1 5(5.9~5.13) ,
RCEP
RCEP FTA TPP
o RCEP , * , * , , , , , , , 8
RCEP 50%, GDP 30%
TPP RCEP
()1)GDP
(%)2)11~15
GDP (%)
RCEP
(16) 34 30 8 2015 ASEANTPP
(12) 8 38.4 3 2013
: 1) 2011 2) 2012 : IMF WEO