Towards Foresight 3.0 – The HCSS Metafore Approach A Multilingual Approach for Exploring Global Foresights

Presentation at the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Conference 2014 – Panel Session 9– Big Data European Commission, Charlemagne building, Brussels, November 27-28, 2014

o Stephan De Spiegeleire, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

o Freija van Duijne, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

o Eline Chivot, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Foresight 1.0

Prima Donna

Foresight 3.0

Mapping visions

Foresight 2.0

Connecting people /

Networks of (remarkable) people

complex problems

ingest digest egest

selection based on

expert judgment

manual coding

by еxperts

1 2 3 4 5

Actors Blocs of States Pairs of States State and non-state vs. non-state State vs. non-state Non-state vs. non-state ActorsAim Physical degradation Obtain/retain/occupy Political/economic degradation Political/economic degradation Stabilize AimDefinition War Militarized interstate disputes Tensions between non-state actors Political/economic tensions Between individuals DefinitionDistinctiveness Low Leans low Medium Leans high High DistinctivenessDomain Traditional Dimensions Modern military dimensions Political Economic Human Terrain DomainExtensiveness Global Regional Sub-regional National Domestic ExtensivenessImpetus Structural Relationship Value Interest Data ImpetusLength Years Months Days Hours Minutes LengthMeans Physical Political Economic Electronic/Cyber Information/ Psychological MeansPace High Leans high Medium Leans low Low PaceSalience High Leans high Medium Leans low Low Salience

1 2 3 4 5

Names of experts

Queries URLs

‘mandraulic’ selection based on

semi-automated

coding

automated coding

‘no’ selection selection pre-competitive

pre-ideological

pre-policymaking

more collaborative