tournament poker talk-1.pptx [read-only]poker strategy • knowing all the factors relevant to a...
TRANSCRIPT
DEWAYNE DERRYBERRY
TOURNAMENT POKER
GAMES OF CHANCE
• Roulette wheel
• Deck of cards
• Dice
• Unplayed events• Unplayed events
• Slot machines
SKILL IN GAMES OF CHANCE
No skill
• Roulette
• Slots
• Most casino games
skill
• Poker
• Blackjack
• Sports events• Most casino games • Sports events
• backgammon
SKILL?
• Research –
• Collecting and interpreting lots of data
Decisions
Must matterMust matter
Must be counter-intuitive and/or involve factors of which
many players are unaware.
May involve caclulations which many players are too lazy
to do.
GAME THEORY
• The is a “best” strategy at any form of poker, chess,
checkers, backgammon, bridge, etc.
• It could be written down.
• Even if you knew I was using this approach, you
could not beat it.
• It might involve randomization.
HOLD’EM POKER
• Hole cards Y-Y
• Flop X-X-X
• Turn X-X-X-T
• River X-X-X-T-R• River X-X-X-T-R
• Best five card hand
POSITION
WHY RANDOMIZE
• Best strategy is to only raise from early position with
AK, AA, KK, and QQ and to raise more with QQ and
less with AA.
If you have a lot of chips and I have 55… • If you have a lot of chips and I have 55…
• Randomization reduces predictiability
“BEST” IS NOT BEST
• Guarantee you win
• Minimize winnings
• Optimal strategy exploits the way others deviate
from “best”
EXAMPLE
• Player consistently over bets: Play a few hands
passively at first.
• Player consistently under bets:
• Play many drawing hands to catch big hand.
TOURNAMENTS
• Fixed number of chips
• Blinds double at fixed time periods.
• How much longer can I live? M• How much longer can I live? M
• M > 32
• 32> M> 8
• 8 > M
• M ≈ 3 or 4
EXAMPLES OF PLAY
• How do I play 55?
• M = 40, call and hope to hit 3 of a kind.
• M ≤ 5 go all in, if no one else is in the pot. Fold, it
someone raised.
EXAMPLES OF PLAY
• You hold A-3 spades
• Flop spade – spade – other
• (M ≤ 12) Go all in, if no one else has acted, fold if • (M ≤ 12) Go all in, if no one else has acted, fold if
someone else has gone all in.
• Deception -- Also go all in with three of a kind or top
two pairs in the same situation.
FOLD, CALL, RAISE
• Fold or raise often the only choices.
• M low…
• Bottom two pair on the flop. If someone in front of
you raises, re-raise or fold, never call.
A COMMON SITUATION
• Someone raises early, you have 5-5.
• What might they have
• How might you win (1-8)
POKER STRATEGY
• Knowing all the factors relevant to a decision
• Developing an intuitive feeling for when people are
weaker or stronger than they appear to be.
• Don’t make any big mistakes. Realize most of the
game falls into about 50 common situations.
• Become emotionally disciplined.
SUMMARY
• “Best” strategy
• Game theory
• Odds and quick calculations
• Developing a feel for people and situations