Tourism Employment Proxy and Multipliers – PPSE case

Nairobi,Feb222018FisnikBajrami(PPSEProjectSwisscontact)

Context & Terminology

1PromotingPrivateSectorEmployment

TourismFoodProcessing

€€€ €€

SerbiaMontenegro

Albania Macedonia

1PPSE-Tourism

Int.Area2: InternationalPromotion

Int.Area3: LocalPromotion

Int.Area4: TourismStatistics

DevelopmentofTourismProductsandcoaching

PressFamiliarizationTrip

PrishtinaTourismFair-EKSplorer

FairParticipationintheUK,Germany,Turkeyand

France

Destinationmanagement,coordination,networking,promotion

andPublic-Privatedialogue

Familiarizationtrip

TailoredpackagesandB2BlinkswithTOsintheUK,Italy,Turkey,Serbiaand

Albania

Capacitybuildingfor

ASK

Improvedstatisticsforaccommodationsand

internationalarrivals Int.Area1:

DestinationManagement Organization

2WhyPPSEdevelopedemploymentproxy&multipliers•  Lackofdocumentedexistingexperiences

•  Thenecessityoffindingapracticalandcosteffectiveapproachformonitoring

•  Impactcontributionvs.attribution

•  Toassessandreportthewiderimpactoftourism

•  Lackofofficialstatistics/datainKosovo

2TourismDevelopmentImpact

Moretourists,longerstaysandhigher

spendinglevelsinthedestination

TourismSMEs(accommodation,restaurants,tour

operators,attractionsetc.)benefitfromhigherturnover

MorepeopleareemployedintourismSMEsearnmore

incometogetherwithexistingemployees

TourismSMEsbuymoreinputfromlocal

suppliers,whoexpandproductionandemployment

Localeconomyexperienceshigher

turnoverandemploymentbythoseemployeddirectlyand

indirectly

Publicandprivateinvestmentis

increasedfortourismdevelopment

€

Touroperator

Source:basedon:WTTC.SCvisualization.

Tourists

Tourist>tourismbusiness=>Directeffects

Localfarmer

Tourismbusiness>Supplychainbusiness=>IndirecteffectsBusinesses’staff>Economy=>Inducedeffects

€ HotelReceptionist

Farmer’sson

€

€

Totaleffectsoftourism∑

Proxy

Multipliers

€

2Terminology:Direct–Indirect–InducedEffectsofTourism

3HowPPSEdevelopedtheemploymentproxy

DirectImpactà

3AttributionIMPACTLOGIC

INTERVENTION:INTERNATIONALPROMOTION

2.PPSEandEMPOWERorganizeFAM-Tripwithinternationaltouroperatorsandjournalists

4.IntJournalistsvisitKosovo

7.JournalistspromotesKosovoin

int.media

5.InttouroperatorsvisitKosovo

8.Int.touroperatorsmeetlocaltouroperators

andsignbusinessagreementsforselling

Kosovopackages

1.PPSEpartnerswithKIESAforsupportingKosovotourismbusinessforparticipatinginfairsintheUKGermanyFranceandTurkey

3.PPSEsupportstourismbusinesswithfairparticipationandmanagementservicesthroughinternationalandlocalexperts

9.Kosovotouroperatorsandotherstakeholdersignbusinessagreementswithinternationaltravelagencies

6.KosovotouroperatorsandotherstakeholderexhibitandengageinB2BexchangesatthefairsinUK,Germany,France&Turkey

16.Totaladditionalnetincomeincrease

17.Totaladditionalnetemploymentincrease

12.MoreTouristarriveinKosovo

15.Touroperators,restaurantsandaccommodationsincreaseincomeandemployment

13.TouriststaylongerinKosovo

10.InternationalTouroperatorspromoteandsellnewoffersinclusiveofKosovo

11.MoreTouristpurchaseproduct/offerstovisitKosovo

14.Touroperators,restaurantsandaccommodationscatertomoretourists

3Employmentproxycalculation•  AnnualSupplySideSurvey–directinterviewswithalltourismrelated

SMEsinthedestination(WesternKosovo)•  Accommodations

•  FoodandDrinksproviders

•  Souvenirshops

•  Transportationcompanies

•  Touroperatorsandguides

•  Attractions

•  CalculationandestimationofrevenuesandemploymentdatafromAccommodationsandFoodandDrinksproviders

3TourismEmploymentProxy

ACCOMMODATIONS

Year FTE NumberofOvernights Revenue Revenueto

Job

2013 385 31,425 €2,751,000 €7,150

2014 458 32,832 €2,874,700 €6,270

2015 399 50,863 €3,405,100 €8,500

FOODANDDRINKSPROVIDERS

Year FTE NumberofVisitors Revenue Revenue

toJob

2013 473 3,317,704 €11,806,200 €24,900

2014 508 4,430,400 €15,765,780 €31,000

2015 600 5,527,980 €16,953,727 €28,200

•  Forevery€7,300oftouristspendinganewfulltimeequivalentjobisgeneratedinhotels/accommodations•  10%potentialvariation(from€6,750to€8,250oftouristspending)

•  Forevery€28,000oftouristspendinganewfulltimeequivalentjobisgeneratedinfoodanddrinksproviders.•  5%potentialvariation(from€28,000to€31,000oftouristspending)

Revenue/FTE Revenue/FTE

3TourismEmploymentProxy(additionaljobsbasedonmarginalrevenues)

10FTEs 12FTEs +2FTEs

$100,000revenues $150,000revenues +$50,000revenues

1FTE/$10,000 1FTE/$12,500 +1FTE/+$25,000

YEAR1 YEAR2 Marginal

4HowPPSEdevelopedthemultipliers

Indirect&InducedImpactà

4WorldTravel&TourismCouncil(WTTC)

•  Factorsanalyzedinitially(importdependency,governmentpromotion,geography,similar

touriamoffers,etc.)

•  Lowestintheregion(Montenegro)

IncomeContribution

Country Direct Indirect InducedIndirectMultiplier

InducedMultiplier

Montenegro297 222 99 0.75 0.33

Serbia61 89 32 1.45 0.53

Macedonia

6 13 4 2.13 0.65

Albania78 110 50 1.40 0.64

Employmentcontribution

Direct Indirect InducedIndirectMultiplier

InducedMultiplier

13

9

4 0.73 0.33

34

35

14 1.04 0.42

7

5 5 2.13 0.70

51

98

35 1.91 0.69

5ApplicationofResultsandLessonsLearnt

5ResultsandInterpretation

Reporting

1285x2x40=102,800EUR

DirectImpact

Indirect=14FTEs*.73=10.22FTEs

Induced=14FTEs*.33=4.62FTEs

Totaleffectsoftourism=28.8FTEs∑

1285x2x20=51,400EUR

Accommodations=€102,800/€8,250=12.4FTEsFoodandDrinksproviders=€51,400/€31,000=1.6FTEs

5Measurementofemploymentdirectly

Directbeneficiary–e.g.TourOperators

Annualinterviewswithdirectbeneficiaries

Direct(indirect)beneficiary

5Lessonslearnt

•  Itisdifficulttogetreliableandconsistentannualdata

•  Calculationofadditional/marginalvalueswillrequiremoreresources/expertise

•  Calculationofproxybeyondtheprojectlocation(westernKosovo)willrequirelocationspecificdatacollection

•  Fieldevidencetosupportthegrowthofindirect&inducedjobsisdifficulttocapture

5Wayforward

•  Replicatethemethodologyinothertourismprojects

•  FurtheranalysisbetweentouristSpendingVsPurchase

•  Categorizationofhotels,restaurantsetc.tocapturemarginalrevenue

•  Impactwheel,qualitativeassessments,timelagetc.

Thank you!

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