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A CYVEILLANCE WHITE PAPER | JUNE 2015

Toronto Pan American Games 2015

Assessment of the Physical Threat Environment

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Toronto Pan American Games 2015: Assessment of the Physical Threat Environment © 2015 Cyveillance

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Protests and Social Unrest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Natural Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Crime and Street Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20

Possible Area Disruptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

Table of Contents

This report is based on open source findings. Therefore, the report is open source intelligence and does not constitute definitive evidence. Information found in the open source cannot necessarily be verified and is presented as intelligence and as additional information to enhance or expand current investigations.

Toronto Pan American Games 2015: Assessment of the Physical Threat Environment | © 2015 Cyveillance 3

The Pan American Games (Pan Am Games), which take place July 10 – 26, 2015 in Toronto, Canada, will draw an estimated 250,000 plus spectators worldwide, as well as nearly 10,000 athletes from Latin America, South America, the Caribbean, and North America . It is the third largest international sports competition after the Summer Olympics and Asian Games . As with any large event, the organizers are preparing for potential risks to attendees and participants . Despite this, concerns remain over costs, traffic, and security .

Cyveillance assesses that homegrown terrorists with ties to international terrorist networks pose the most serious physical threat to Canada and the Pan Am Games in the short and medium terms . This is based on expressed intentions by Salafist-Jihadi networks in the Middle East and Africa to attack Canada, a history of successful and foiled attacks on Canadian soil by homegrown terrorists inspired by Salafist-Jihadist ideology, and the growing capabilities among terrorists with close ties to Canada . Additionally, Canada’s military involvement against international terrorist networks overseas increases the risk of retaliatory attacks on Canadian soil .

Aspiring terrorists will likely favor softer targets (restaurants, hotels, cafes, and malls) with fewer security barriers . This is mainly due to the implementation of extensive defensive counterterrorism measures by Canadian authorities during the Games, which will likely deter terrorists from attacking high-value targets . As a consequence, hardened targets are replaced with softer targets to reduce costs and increase the chances of operational success . The Pan Am Games are a challenge to Canadian authorities because they offer terrorists a target rich environment with ample opportunity to magnify their cause through immediate domestic and international media exposure . Meanwhile, Canadian authorities are confronted with a target-poor environment where terrorists easily can blend in with civilians .

Threats from domestic terrorism, particularly single-issue terrorist groups, are most likely lower than terrorism motivated by the Salafist-Jihad ideology . Secular and domestic terrorist groups are generally concerned about a backlash from their constituency and government retaliations, and are constrained by moral value systems, which together, discourage them from more destructive and violent attacks . However, a new eco-terrorism campaign

Executive Summary

Toronto Pan American Games 2015: Assessment of the Physical Threat Environment | © 2015 Cyveillance 4

against energy corporations in Canada is possible in the short and medium term, as there are indications that a few environmental activists are willing to use more radical tactics . Additionally, eco-terrorism-related incidents have been cyclical over the past three decades, so a new wave of eco-terrorism cannot be ruled out . Any actions by radical environmentalists during the Games will likely be disruptive to gain media attention .

Weather is another concern . There is a medium chance that extreme weather in the form of severe flooding could impact the Games . Toronto experienced severe flooding in July 2013 and June 2014, which resulted in close to a billion dollars in damages, severe power outages, and closure of parts of Toronto’s public transportation network . Extreme weather events are six times as common in Canada compared to 40 years ago, and are a risk to business operations in the short and medium term . Disruption to Toronto’s subway system is possible due to an overcrowded and aging system . The Toronto subway system shut down on June 8 due to a power failure that affected 100,000 passengers for nearly 95 minutes . The volume of passengers during the Pan Am Games will likely put additional pressure on the aging subway system and increase the risk of further shutdowns .

Lastly, there is a mid-level chance that protests could occur during the Pan Am Games . Toronto taxi drivers could stage so-called “go-slow” protests to disrupt traffic . If the ongoing court battle between the City of Toronto and the Uber ride-share application turns out in the favor of Uber, frustration among taxi drivers in Toronto could build and result in disruptive taxi protests . The anarchist group “No One Is Illegal” is planning a protest against the Pan American Economics and Climate Summits on July 8 . Activists have indicated they will protest outside Fairmont Royal York Hotel (100 Front Street) . There are no indications that the protests will extend beyond July 8 . At this time, one protest has been identified to coincide with the Games – a counter protest organized by the Jewish Defense League against a Pro-Iranian event, which is scheduled to occur on July 11 .

Toronto is generally considered a very safe city . However, in the first six months of 2015, the number of shootings, sexual assaults, and car thefts increased significantly . Due to the high level of visitors at the Games, certain urban crimes may increase, including pickpocketing, scams, and muggings .

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The Games are an attractive target for potential terrorist attacks because it is a highly visible event that will

receive media coverage from at least 40 countries and territories around the world. Media has always played

a pivotal role in terrorist groups’ ability to maximize publicity for their causes, spread fear and anxiety beyond

the immediate victims of their attacks, pressure government decision makers to concede to their demands,

and reach out to new members and sympathizers.1 An attack during the Games would immediately garner

media attention and magnify a terrorist group’s message to both domestic and international audiences.

Target Selection and VulnerabilitiesCyveillance assesses that terrorists aspiring to conduct an attack at the Pan Am Games will likely favor softer

targets with less defensive measures. The Office of the Auditor General of Ontario has procured a wide range of

security devices to protect game venues, sites, and the Athletics village, including handheld wands for detecting

metal weapons, x-ray machines, and video surveillance.2 Terrorists are often considered rational actors that cal-

culate costs and benefits to maximize their chance of operational success. If defensive counterterrorism mea-

sures raise the price of one mode of attack, terrorists will simply chose a different and cheaper mode of attack.3

Terrorism

01SECTION

1 Schmidt, A, P, (2004), Frameworks for Conceptualizing Terrorism, Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol.16, No.2, Crelinsten, R, D, (1987) Terrorism as Political Communication: The Relationship between the Controller and the Controlled, “ in Paul Wilkinson and A.M. Stewart (eds.), Contemporary Research on Terrorism, University of Aberdeen Press, Crenshaw, M, (1987), Theories of terrorism: Instrumental Organizational Approaches, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 10, No.4

2 http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/reports_en/panam_en.pdf 3 Sandler, T, (2004), An Economic Perspective on Transnational Terrorism, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.20, No.2, Enders, W, Sandler, T, (2002), What Do we

Know about the Substitution Effect in Transnational Terrorism, Working Paper

6Toronto Pan American Games 2015: Assessment of the Physical Threat Environment | © 2015 Cyveillance

Additionally, a highly symbolic target that has been hardened often results

in target transference or substitution, whereby terrorists shift the target to

a location with lower security measures and more people, such as shop-

ping malls, schools, and restaurants.4 The Pan Am Games is a target-rich

environment providing terrorists with many opportunities for attacks, and is

therefore vulnerable to acts of terrorism since Canadian authorities cannot

harden conceivable targets everywhere, in a city hosting more than 30

events spanning two weeks, and with an estimated 250,000 plus visiting

tourists.5 On the other hand, terrorists present a target-poor environment

for the Canadian government, as they blend in with the general population

and visiting tourists.

While no specific target can be singled out with certainty in the short and

medium term in Canada and at the Pan Am Games, future attacks against

Canada’s public transportation network, financial district, foreign embas-

sies, and Parliament Hill in Ottawa can never be ruled out. Terrorist groups’

target selection is driven by ideology and a tendency to revisit previously

failed or near-successful attacks. They study the failures and successes

of attacks to learn from their mistakes, as well as the mistakes of other

groups. This ‘lose and learn’ doctrine – often attributed to Al Qaeda (AQ) –

allows terrorist groups to recover and learn from their failures, reorganize,

and launch new attacks in the future.6

6

4 Sander, T, Arce, D, and Enders, W, (2008), Terrorism: Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Challenge Paper, Copenhagen Consensus Center

5 Poole, R, W, (2008), Toward Risk-based Aviation Security Policy, Discussion Paper No.2008-231 prepared for the OECD/ITF Round Table of 11-12 December 2008 on Security, Risk Perception and Cost-Benefit Analysis, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 2008.

6 Gunaratna, R, (2006), Al Qaeda’s Lose and Learn Doctrine: The Trajectory from Oplan Bojinka to 9/11. In Teaching Terror: Strategic and Tactical Learning in the Terrorist World, ed. Forest, J, Rowman & Littlefield


International Terrorism Cyveillance assesses that the most concerning physical threat to Canada in the short and medium term, and the Pan Am Games, originates

from international terrorist networks based in Syria, Iraq, Somalia, and Afghanistan that subscribe to a Salafi-Jihadist ideology.7 Cyveillance

also assesses that these networks, primarily the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and various AQ branches, may continue to incite

and inspire disenfranchised individuals in Canada to commit acts of terrorism, or homegrown terrorism. Cyveillance bases this assertion

on an expressed motivation by international terrorist networks to attack Canada, a history of attempted attacks against Canadian targets,

and growing operational capabilities among terrorists with ties to Canada. These factors, in combination with Canada’s global military

commitments, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, have made Canada vulnerable to retaliatory attacks from overseas terrorist networks.8

Significant International Terrorism Incidents

• On March 9, 2015, Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) arrested Jahanzeb Malik, a Pakistani man and supporter of ISIS, for

planning to bomb the U.S. Consulate and other buildings in Toronto’s financial district.9

• On Feb. 22, 2015, a video released by Somalia-based Al-Shabab urged Muslims to attack shopping malls in western countries,

including the West Edmonton Mall in Canada.10

Cyveillance assesses that the most concerning physical threat to the Pan Am Games originates from international terror networks in Syria, Iraq, Somalia, and Afghanistan.

7 Seth G. Jones, A Persistent Threat: The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists. Rand National Defense Research Institute, 2014. 61-63. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR600/RR637/RAND_RR637.pdf

8 http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations-abroad-current/op-impact.page 9 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/11/us-canada-security-deportation-idUSKBN0M71UT20150311 10 http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/rcmp-probe-reported-terror-threat-against-west-edmonton-mall-1.1770942


• On Jan. 26, 2015, ISIS spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani called

for “individual jihad” within Canada due to the Canadian government’s

decision to join the anti-ISIS military coalition.11

• On Oct. 22, 2014, a Libyan national killed a guard at the National War

Memorial in Ottawa before storming into Parliament Hill. The terrorist

attack was perpetrated in response to Canada’s military involvement

in Afghanistan and Iraq.12

• In October 2014, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS)

disclosed that approximately 130 Canadian individuals had traveled

overseas to join conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Sahel.

Approximately 30 are believed to have joined ISIS.13

• On Sept. 22, 2014, ISIS released an audio recording that urged

indiscriminate attacks against civilian targets in member countries of

the U.S.-led coalition. Canada was specifically mentioned.14

• On July 1, 2013, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) arrested

two Canadian-born citizens from British Columbia who were plotting

to detonate pressure cooker bombs at a public gathering at the British

Columbia Legislature in Victoria on Canada Day. Both were inspired by

AQ’s Salafi-Jihadist ideology.15

11 http://news.nationalpost.com/news/isis-spokesman-calls-for-more-ottawa-style-attacks-in-canada-warning-what-lies-ahead-will-be-worse

12 http://globalnews.ca/news/1868053/live-rcmp-show-parliament-shooters-self-made-video-11-a-m-est/ 13 https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2014-pblc-rpr-trrrst-thrt/2014-pblc-rpr-trrrst-thrt-eng.pdf 14 http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/stephen-harper-condemns-isis-audio-urging-attacks-on-canadians-1.2773636 15 http://bc.cb.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=50&languageId=1&contentId=30838


• On April 22, 2013, RCMP arrested two individuals affiliated with

AQ, who were in the planning stages of derailing and blowing up

a Via Rail Canada passenger train in Toronto.16

• On June 2, 2006, Canadian authorities arrested 18 individuals

from Toronto who were part of a homegrown terrorist cell.

The cell was inspired by AQ and the group planned to

bomb the Toronto Stock Exchange, storm Parliament Hill,

behead politicians, and demand that Canada withdraw

troops from Afghanistan.17

Domestic Terrorism Cyveillance assesses that the threat from domestic terrorist groups,

both at the Pan Am Games and in Canada in general, is much lower

compared to the threat posed by Salafi-Jihadi-inspired terrorism.

Salafist-Jihadists pose a greater threat because they have absolutist

or non-negotiable goals, and different value systems and concepts

of morality, making their attacks more deadly and difficult to deter.18

On the other hand, domestic terrorist groups, particularly single-

issue terrorist groups, are more concerned about civilian casualties,

primarily due to the risk of potential backlash from their own

constituencies and offensive counterterrorism measures by the

government that can eradicate a terrorist group.19

16 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/23/canada-passenger-train-terrorist-plot 17 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto-18-key-events-in-the-case-1.715266#timeline 18 Taquechel, E, Lewis, T, (2012), How to Quantify Deterrence and Reduce Critical Infrastructure Risk,

Homeland Security Affairs, Vol.8, No.12 19 See, Cronin, A, K, (2009), How Terrorism Ends, Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist

Campaigns, Princeton University Press


Currently there are no ongoing domestic terrorist campaigns in Canada. A brief eco-terrorism wave occurred from 2008-2010, when economic targets

of energy corporations in British Columbia and Alberta were attacked, but no attacks occurred in Toronto.20 Eco-terrorists subscribe to a deep ecological

ideology, where the rollback of industrialization is an important goal in order to preserve the environment. To fulfill their goals, radical environmentalists

sabotage and vandalize corporate buildings, equipment, and trucks, and intimidate corporate executives, in defense of natural resources.21

Cyveillance assesses that there is a breeding ground in Canada for a new wave of attacks by radical environmental and animal rights groups. This

assertion is based on the continued expansion of oil and gas pipeline projects, including the Keystone XL, Northern Gateway, Trans Mountain, and

Energy East projects. These projects have mobilized a national movement of environmentalists, animal rights activists, and aboriginal groups, with

a few followers showing a willingness to further their goals through violent tactics, commonly known as ecotage and eco-arson.

Additionally, a review of domestic terrorist acts in Canada dating back to 1980 indicates that terrorist groups motivated by environmental typology have

more often attacked business assets than any other terrorist typologies. Data from the Canadian Incident Database (CIDB) shows that eco-terrorism in

Canada has been cyclical and the periods 1982-1984; 1994-1995; and 2008-2009 were identified as peak periods. The number of eco-terrorism attacks

has declined significantly since 2010.22 Based on the cyclical nature of eco-terrorism in Canada, future attacks cannot be ruled out.

It is worth noting that because eco-terrorists take measures to avoid targeting civilians, it is debatable whether some of these acts fulfill all the criteria

for terrorism.23

20 National Counterterrorism Center’s Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS), National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), Global Terrorism Database. Retrieved from http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd

21 Chermak, S, Freilich, J, Duran, C, Parkin, W, “An Overview of Bombing and Arson Attack by Environmental and Animal Rights Extremists in the United States, 1995-2010, Final Report to the Resilient Systems Division, Science and Technology Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

22 http://extremism.ca/results.aspx 23 Hirsch-Hoefler, S, Mudde, C, (2014), Ecoterrorism” Terrorism Threat or Political Ploy? Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol.37, No.7

To fulfill their goals, environmentalists sabotage and vandalize corporate equipment, buildings, and trucks, and intimidate and harass corporate executives.


Canada Eco-Terrorism Incidents (1980–Present)

Incidents Per Year Incidents by Geographic Location

Figure 1Source: Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security,

and Society (TSAS) – Canadian Incidents Database (CIDB)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Incidents

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Toronto, Ontario, 16

Vancouver, British Columbia, 10

British Columbia,(Unknown), 7

Montreal, Quebec, 5

Winnipeg, Manitoba, 1Mississauga, Ontario, 1

Scarborough, Ontario, 1London, Ontario, 2

Edmonton, Alberta, 3

Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia, 1

New Foundland and Labrador, 1

Cranbrook, British Columbia, 1Fredricton, New Bruinswick, 1Spallumcheen,

British Columbia, 1Demmitt Alberta, 1

Tomslake, British Columbia, 1Dawson Creek, British Columbia, 1

Ottawa, Ontario, 3

11

Analysis of 75 recorded eco-terrorism incidents from 1980 to 2015 shows that environmental radicals have been

most active in Toronto, Ontario, followed by Vancouver, British Columbia, and Tomslake, British Columbia . The most

recent recorded environmental action in Toronto occurred on Aug . 3, 1992 . Eco-terrorist-related incidents were more

prevalent in Toronto from 1981-1984 and were perpetrated by the Animal Liberation Front (ALF) . Most incidents in the

2000s have occurred in British Columbia .

Figure 2Source: Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security,

and Society (TSAS) – Canadian Incidents Database (CIDB)


Significant Eco-Terrorism Incidents• On Oct. 17, 2013, approximately 40 anti-fracking activists, mainly from the First Nation, were arrested in New Brunswick after they threw

Molotov cocktails at police vehicles and RCMP officers. Police officers seized guns, knives, and improvised explosive devices (IED),

consisting of modified commercial fireworks with shrapnel.24

• On May 18, 2010, a group known as Fighting for Freedom Coalition (FFFC) firebombed a Royal Bank branch in Ottawa and caused at

least $300,000 in property damage. The act was carried out to protest the bank’s support of the Alberta tar sands development and its

support of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, which FFFC claimed was held on “stolen indigenous land.”25

• On July 4, 2009, an IED exploded near a natural gas pipeline owned by Encana Corporation in Dawson Creek, British Columbia. The

explosion caused a 12-inch gas leak. No group claimed responsibility.26

• On July 1, 2009, an IED detonated near one of EnCana’s natural gas pipelines in Pouce Coupe, British Columbia, causing minor damage.

No group claimed responsibility.27

• On Jan. 10, 2009, unknown perpetrators attacked a private residence in Edmonton, Alberta with Molotov cocktails and caused

approximately $850,000 in property damage. The destroyed property belonged to Jim Carter, the former President and CEO of

Syncrude Oil. No group claimed responsibility.28

• On Jan. 4, 2009, a bomb detonated near an Encana natural gas facility near Tomslake in British Columbia, destroying a metering shed.

No group claimed responsibility. The attack was the fourth bombing of an Encana natural gas facility since Encana received a threatening

letter demanding that oil and gas operations be stopped.29

• In August 2006, a car belonging to a spokesperson for the Canadian Petroleum Products Institute (CPPI) was firebombed in his driveway

in the middle of the night. The attack occurred northwest of Montreal and a group known as Initiative de Resistance Internationalists (IRI)

claimed responsibility for the attack.30

24 http://o.canada.com/news/first-nations-march-in-solidarity-with-elsipogtog-shale-gas-protesters 25 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-rbc-firebombing-raids-see-3-charged-1.888503 26 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/05/content_11655284.htm 27 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/05/content_11655284.htm

28 http://www.reddeeradvocate.com/news/provincial/Edmonton_fire_that_destroyed_oil_executives_home_was_arson.html?mobile=true

29 http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2009/01/05/new_blast_at_encana_bc_pipeline.html30 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-anti-terror-squad-probes-oil-exec-s-car-blast-1.604861

13


Cyveillance estimates that there is a medium to high probability of demonstrations during the Pan Am

Games. At least one protest has been identified to occur during the Games; the Jewish Defense League

will stage a counter protest against an annual event planned by the Iranian diaspora known as Al Quds

Day at Queen’s Park on July 17, 2015 at 3 PM.31 Due to potentially tense relations between the Israeli and

Iranian protesters, high police presence and road closures cannot be ruled out.

Protests have also been held, or are planned to occur, before the Games. In March 2015, an anti-poverty

protest, “Shelters, Not Spectacles: Torchlight March Against the PAN AM Games!” was held to show anti-

poverty groups’ growing dissatisfaction with increased expenditures on the Games, which in their view,

could have been better spent on local communities. Large events like the Games is an attractive platform

for resource-poor activists seeking to gain media publicity for various local and national grievances,

including but not limited to, environmental, aboriginal, and anti-poverty issues. Additional protests during

the Games by these groups cannot be ruled out.

On July 8 at 6:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), the anarchist group known as “No One Is Illegal” plans

to protest the Pan American Economics and Climate Summit, taking place at the Fairmont Royal York Hotel

Protests and Social Unrest

02SECTION

31 https://www.facebook.com/events/996762063669520/

Canada Protests by Social Issues/ Grievances (May 2014 – March 2015)

Aboriginal, 30International, 26

Other, 23

Energy, 48

Economy/Labor, 9

Environment, 9

Politics/Government, 9

Fisheries, 3Housing, 3

Immigration, 1Refugees, 1

Veterans, 1

Figure 3Source: Public Safety Canada –

Governement Operations Centre (GOC)


(100 Front Street, West) from July 8-10. The protest will be followed by a

disruptive march against corporations located along Bay Street Toronto.

There are no indications that No One Is Illegal’s activities will extend be-

yond July 8 and into the Games.32

Additionally, Toronto taxi drivers have protested the ride-sharing service,

Uber, multiple times in the past month. Currently, the City of Toronto is

seeking a permanent injunction to force Uber to cease its operations

in the city. To date, no decision has been reached in the ongoing court

battle, and Cyveillance assesses that if Uber is allowed to continue its op-

erations in Toronto during the Pan Am Games, Toronto taxi drivers could

stage so-called “go-slow” protests, which could cause significant traffic

disruption in the area.33 Video clips posted online refer to recent protests

as “test runs” to shut down the Pan Am Games; however, no organized

effort by Toronto taxi drivers has been identified to date.34

Protest Trends The Public Safety Canada Government Operations Centre (GOC) consolidated

protest situation reports submitted by Canadian law enforcement agencies

from May 2014 to March 2015. Approximately 160 protests occurred across

Canada during this time period. A majority of these protests pertained to

energy and aboriginal issues, followed by international issues. Energy and

aboriginal protests rarely occur in Toronto, and are typically confined to areas

where energy corporations operate, including British Columbia and Alberta.

32 http://toronto.nooneisillegal.org/RiseupTO33 http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/06/10/uber-fight-shows-governments-must-keep-up-with-technological-change.html 34 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpcTW3Id7zk


Protests against domestic policies, the economy, and international injustices

generally occur in Toronto in the vicinity of the Parliament.35

As seen in Fig. 3, the majority of Canadian protests from May 2014-March

2015 were environmentally motivated, concentrated in British Columbia

and New Brunswick. Environmental protests in Toronto have been mostly

peaceful, but can still cause minor area disruption to public transportation

and business operations. A few protests in recent years have resulted in

vandalism and clashes between police and activists. The most notable

was the riots during the 2010 G-20 meeting in Toronto, as well as protests

by aboriginals and environmentalists against oil and gas exploration.

Analysis of Cyveillance daily threat reports prepared for corporate clients

indicates that protest activities are generally centralized to a few locations in

Toronto. Most protests in Toronto occur in downtown Toronto, including City

Hall, Nathan Phillips Square, and Yonge-Dundas Square. The most disruptive

protests occur in and around the Yonge and Dundas intersection, where

activists sometimes stage sit-ins and “die-ins,” or lay down in the middle of

the intersection to deliberately block traffic. Popular assembly points include

Yonge-Dundas Square, where activists assemble before marching down

Yonge Street and Queen Street to City Hall or Nathan Phillips Square (high-

lighted in red on Fig. 4). These protest sites are located approximately half a

mile away from Toronto’s financial district. Protesters also embrace interna-

tional incidents and stage static demonstrations in front of the U.S., Japanese,

Israeli, Russian, and Mexican consulates in Toronto.

Figure 4 – Aerial overview of most common protest sites are highlighted in red. Toronto’s financial district is located north of Nathan Phillips Square along University Avenue and Yonge Street.

Figure 5 – Common protest sites are highlighted in red and include Nathan Phillips Square, Yonge-Dundas Square, and City Hall

35 http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/03/29/list-of-protests-tracked-by-government-includes-vigil-peace-demonstration.html


Significant Social Issues Incidents

• On Aug. 5, 2015, the New Earth Community is hosting an Anonymous-affiliated ‘Million Mask March’ at 6 PM EDT that will leave from

Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto. Approximately 300 people have indicated they will participate in the march.36

• On July 17, 2015, the Jewish Defense League will stage a counter protest against an annual event known as Al-Quds Day at Queen’s Park

(111 Wellesley Street West) in Toronto at 3 PM EDT.37 The event could spark clashes between the camps of supporters of Israel and Iran.

• On July 8, 2015, No One Is Illegal-Toronto is planning a protest against the Pan American Economic and Climate Summit. Activists are planning

to meet at 6:30 AM EDT at Berczy Park and will surround the Royal York Hotel and disrupt participants at the Summit. After, activists plan to

March along Bay Street to protest corporations located there. The event page on Facebook indicates that close to 900 are planning to attend.38

Anticipate localized traffic disruption and possible arrests of activists.

• On June 17, 2015, the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty (OCAP) hosted a Reclaim the Streets! March to End Violence event at 6 PM EDT.

Approximately 300 people attended the rally and march at 465 Dundas Street East in Toronto.39

Analysis of Cyveillance data shows that protests in Toronto are typically concentrated in a few key areas, including City Hall, Nathan Phillips Square, and Yonge-Dundas Square.

36 https://www.facebook.com/events/386086674928399/ 37 https://www.facebook.com/events/996762063669520/ 38 https://www.facebook.com/events/562140067258155/39 https://www.facebook.com/events/1424994391154510/


• On June 1, 2015, hundreds of taxi drivers disrupted downtown traffic near City Hall to protest the ride-sharing service Uber.

This was the second time taxi drivers blocked traffic in downtown Toronto. The most recent protest occurred on May 14, 2015.40

• On March 14, 2015, approximately 1,500 people staged a protest on Toronto’s Nathan Phillips Square against a proposed anti-terror bill

that protesters believed would infringe on civil rights and right to line privacy. Several Members of Parliament (MP) attended the protest.41

• On March 9, 2015, anti-poverty activists affiliated with the OCAP staged a protest march in Toronto against the Pan Am Games

expenditures. Approximately 100 individuals attended the event at the intersection of Parliament Street and Gerrard Street.42

• On Dec. 14, 2014 more than 200 protesters marched from Nathan Phillips Square to Yonge-Dundas intersection and blocked traffic by

laying down in the intersection. The protest was organized by the Black Lives Matter movement, which demands justice for unarmed

black men shot by police.43

• On June 26, 2010, Canadian police arrested close to 1,000 people believed to have vandalized businesses and banks and torched

police cars in downtown Toronto. The protest against the G-20 summit was infiltrated by black block anarchists and was the largest

mass arrest in Canadian history.44

• In April 2009, members of the Tamil diaspora in Canada staged several protests against the Sri Lankan civil war. Approximately

30,000 Tamils protested at Parliament Hill. Sit-down protests occurred in front of the U.S. consulate in Toronto and resulted in

arrests and injuries.45

40 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/uber-protesting-toronto-taxi-drivers-block-traffic-downtown-1.3094988 41 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/hundreds-protest-in-toronto-against-proposed-anti-terrorism-law/article23463005/ 42 https://nowtoronto.com/news/features/pan-am-games-torched/ 43 http://www.680news.com/2014/12/13/hundreds-march-in-toronto-black-lives-matter-protest/ 44 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/g20-related-mass-arrests-unique-in-canadian-history/article4323163/45 http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2009/04/29/15_arrested_at_tamil_protest_police_say.html

18


Extreme weather also poses a risk to the Games as it can cause power outages and road closures, and can

have an adverse impact on public infrastructure, business operations, and financial results. Bad weather can

negatively impact the supply and transportation of products and goods due to the closure of warehouses and

the absence of a critical work force. Corporations relying on information systems for supply chain and transac-

tions are also subject to disruption from power outages, which is common when extreme weather occurs.

After a review of 160 natural disasters impacting the Ontario region from 1900 to 2015, Cyveillance

assesses that there is a low to medium risk of severe flooding during the Pan Am Games. Flooding

has been the most common natural disaster impacting the Ontario region over the past 115 years, with

disasters being the most common during the months of March, April, and May, followed by July and

August.46 No flooding disasters have occurred in September, October, or November over the past 115

years.47 Three of the four flooding disasters in Toronto over the past hundred years occurred in August

2005, July 2013, and June 2014. The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) reports that there has been a 12

percent increase in the amount of rain in Canada since 1950, and extreme weather events that used to

happen every 40 years now occur every six years.48

Natural Hazards

03SECTION

46 Nirupama, N, Adhikari, I, Sheybani, A, (2014), Natural Hazards in Ontario, Canada: An Analysis for Resilience Building, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 1847 http://cdd.publicsafety.gc.ca/rslts-eng.

aspx?cultureCode=enCa&boundingBox=&provinces=9&eventTypes=&eventStartDate=&injured=&evacuated=&totalCost=&dead=&normalizedCostYear=1&dynamic=false 48 http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/insurers-zero-in-on-flood-prone-areas-1.2693427


Significant Flooding Incidents

• On June 25, 2014, Toronto received approximately 79mm of

rain in only a few hours, which flooded Don Valley Parkway

and shut down Bay View Avenue and the GO rail lines.49

Subway stations along the Yonge-University-Spadina Line

were partly underwater.50

• On July 8, 2013, a storm dumped around 100mm of rain in

west Toronto, which resulted in severe power outages that

impacted 300,000 residents. The storm system stranded

Go Train passengers and halted subway services.51 The

damage caused by the storm was estimated at $1 billion

and is considered one of the most costly Canadian

natural disasters.52

• On Aug. 19, 2005, Toronto received approximately 150mm of

rain over three hours, which caused an estimated $671 million

in damages. The storm damaged public infrastructure and

washed away roads in Toronto. A tornado warning was also

issued for the area.53

Extreme Weather Events in Ontario and Toronto (1900–2015)

Extreme Weather Events by Month in Ontario (1900–2015)

49 http://news.nationalpost.com/toronto/toronto-first-responders-rescue-stranded-motorists-after-torrential-rain-floods-roads-highway

50 http://www.cp24.com/news/heavy-rain-causes-localized-flooding-across-gta-1.1886869 51 http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/investing/2014/07/05/a_year_after_the_toronto_

flood.html 52 http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/08/14/july_flood_ontarios_most_costly_natural_disaster.html53 http://www.iclr.org/images/Hotsheet_August_19_storm.pdf

60

50

40

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ingSt

orm Th

unde

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ildfir

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Toronto Ontario

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212

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

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Wildfire

Tornado

Epidemic

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Drought

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Cold event

Heat Event

Hurricane6

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4

1

Figure 7 – Source: Canadian Disaster Database (CDD) Public Safety Canada

Figure 6 – Source: Canadian Disaster Database (CDD) Public Safety Canada

20


Toronto has a low crime rate and has developed a reputation for being one of the safest cities in North

America. However, the first six months of 2015 have seen an increase in shootings, sexual assaults, and

auto thefts. The Toronto Police Crime Information Analysis Unit reports that shootings have been concen-

trated in the downtown area in the vicinity of the Bay Street corridor, Kensington-Chinatown, and Regent

Park. Shootings have also occurred in southwestern Toronto in the Parkdale area and in northwestern

Toronto in the Glenfield Jane Heights area. The number of shootings in the first six months of 2015 sur-

passed the total number of shootings in 2014.54 However, these shootings do not appear to be random,

but are confrontations between rivalry gangs.

Cyveillance recommends caution in certain areas of Toronto to prevent incidental violence, including Jane

and Finch, Parkdale, Flemingdon Park, Regent Park, St. James Town, and to some extent Scarborough

shoreline. While these types of crimes will likely decrease during the Pan Am Games due to increased

police presence and security, an increase in the number of tourists increases the opportunity for crime,

including pickpocketing and street robbery.

Crime and Street Safety

04SECTION

Figure 8 – Areas with a historically high level of crime are highlighted in blue

54 http://www.torontopolice.on.ca/statistics/stats.php

21


Anticipate significant area disruption in downtown Toronto from July 4-23. The opening ceremonies of the

Pan Am Games will be held at 1 Blue Jays Way on July 4, 2015, which is located approximately one mile

from the Financial District (highlighted in green on Fig. 9).55 Approximately 10,000 athletes and officials

are expected to stay in the Pan Am Athlete’s Village located near West Don Lands and 409 Front Street.56

Anticipate roads in the vicinity of the village to be closed, including Cherry Street, Front Street, and Unwin

Avenue.57 West Don Lands is located approximately 1.5 miles from the Financial District. A wide range of

cultural events are being planned at Nathan Phillips Square, which is located adjacent to the Financial

District. Businesses operating in the downtown Financial District can expect area disruption, road closures,

and sporadic vehicle checks in the vicinity of the venue sites.58

On June 8, 2015, the Toronto subway system shut down during the morning rush hour, which affected more than

100,000 commuters. A power failure forced the Toronto Transit Commission to shut down the entire subway

system for 95 minutes and left passengers stranded citywide. The Toronto transit agency’s top executive has said

that the subway system is unreliable due to an increasing number of commuters and an ever-aging system. A

shutdown during the Pan Am Games could occur, particularly since there will be more passengers on the already

overcrowded subway system. Ticketholders can use the subway system for free during the Pan Am Games,

which will likely bring up the number of passengers along with the estimated 250,000 plus visitors.59

Figure 9 – Areas with a high level of area disruption are highlighted in blue. Toronto’s financial district is highlighted in green.

55 http://www.toronto2015.org/venue/pan-am-ceremonies-venue56 http://www.toronto2015.org/venue/athletes-village57 http://www.thespec.com/news-story/5327723-countdown-to-pan-am/58 http://www.omdc.on.ca/film_and_tv/Ontario_Film_Commission/2015_PanAm_ParaPan_Am_Games_Information.htm?PageMode=Print59 http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN0OO2GB20150608

Possible Area Disruptions

05SECTION

22


Early warning on physical threats is essential for effective prevention and mitigation. Cyveillance provides

round-the-clock monitoring of the web and social media to identify and analyze early Indications and

Warnings (I&W) related to physical threats. These events can range from large-scale demonstrations and

protests, to smaller stockholder meetings.

Companies need to be aware of, and know how to prepare for, any physical risks that could impact

their facilities, infrastructure, and employees, whether it be protests, boycotts, or the weather. Below are

Cyveillance’s recommendations for security professionals from organizations that may be sponsoring or

sending participants to the Pan Am Games.

• Visitors and businesses should be alert to planned and unannounced protests around City Hall,

Nathan Phillips Square, and Yonge-Dundas Square in downtown Toronto. Protests can be disruptive,

with potential clashes between police and demonstrators.

• Visitors should be cautious in certain areas of the city due to the risk of incidental violence, including

but not limited to, the downtown area in the vicinity of the Bay Street Corridor, Kensington-Chinatown,

and Regent Park. Caution is also recommended in Jane and Finch, Parkdale, Flemingdon Park, Regent

Park, and St. James Town.

• Visitors should maintain situational awareness of their surroundings at all times. They should

understand the risk of attending certain public venues based on prior history of successful or thwarted

terrorist attacks, including the Financial District and the public transportation network. Terrorist groups

have been known to revisit areas of previously failed and near successful attacks.

• Visitors and businesses should anticipate road closures, sporadic vehicle inspections, and area disruptions

in downtown Toronto due to heightened security measures because of the Games. Road closures can be

expected near the Athletic Village, including Cherry Street, Front Street, and Unwin Street. The Financial

District may also experience disruptions due to cultural events being planned at Nathan Phillips Square.

• Visitors should be cautious of inclement weather, particularly flooding. In the event of inclement

weather, anticipate traffic disruptions and delays to public transportation (metro and buses), flights,

and train services.

Recommendations

06SECTION

While your network may be secure, do you have visibility beyond the perimeter? Security is no longer about what you can see. What you can’t see is where the true threats hide.

Cyveillance offers an easy-to-use platform that enables security professionals the ability to see beyond the perimeter. Our solutions identify cyber and physical threats and risks across the globe, allowing you to mitigate and eliminate them before they disrupt your business.

We go beyond data to provide the threat intelligence that you need to achieve your organization’s business goals. Contact us today to learn more and get a free trial.

Using security intelligence technology can save companies up to $2.6 million when compared to companies not using security intelligence technologies. “2014 Global Report on the Cost of Cyber Crime.” Ponemon Institute; HP. 3 Dec. 2014. http://www8.hp.com/us/en/software-solutions/ponemon-cyber-security-reportA study by Verizon has shown that the targets of 85 percent attacks are small businesses with less than 1,000 employees. Verizon, “2012 Data Breach Investigations Report,” http://www.verizonenterprise.com/resources/reports/ rp_data-breach-investigations-report-2012-ebk_en_xg.pdf

Cyber Threat Center

www.cyveillance.com/cyberthreatcenter

11091 Sunset Hills Road, Suite 210 Reston, Virginia 20190 888.243.0097 | 703.351.1000www.cyveillance.com [email protected]

Copyright © 2015 Cyveillance, Inc. All rights reserved. Cyveillance is a registered trademark of Cyveillance, Inc. All other names are

trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners

Cyveillance is the leading provider of cyber threat intelligence, enabling organizations to protect their information, infrastructure, and employees from physical and online threats found outside the network perimeter. Founded in 1997, Cyveillance delivers an intelligence-led approach to security through continuous, comprehensive monitoring of millions of online data sources, along with sophisticated technical and human analysis. The Cyveillance Cyber Threat Center, a cloud-based platform, combines web search, social media monitoring, underground channel information, and global intelligence with investigative tools and databases of threat actors, domain names and IP data, phishing activity, and malware. Cyveillance serves the Global 2000 and the majority of the Fortune 50 – as well as global leaders in finance, technology, and energy – along with data partners and resellers. For more information, visit www.cyveillance.com.

Cyveillance is a wholly-owned subsidiary of QinetiQ, a FTSE250 company which uses its domain knowledge to provide technical support and know-how to customers in the global aerospace, defense and security markets. For more information, visit www.qinetiq.com.

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