tornadoes in europe: risk and vulnerability assessment
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tornadoes in Europe Risk and vulnerability assessment
Bogdan Antonescu*
David M. Schultz
Geraint Vaughan
Kelsey MulderUniversity of Manchester, UK
*AXA Research Fund
![Page 2: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Deadly European tornadoes 1091–2013
people
per year(2004–2013)
![Page 3: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What is the spatial distribution
of these tornadoes?
How many tornadoes occur
each year in Europe?
![Page 4: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
European Severe Weather Database
tornadoes reported
between 1800–2013
over Europe with QC0+
![Page 5: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Tornadoes in Europe
![Page 6: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Tornadoes in Europe
before 1939
![Page 7: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
tornadoes were reported in Europe
between 1800–2013 6258
France Germany
Europe
torn
ado
re
po
rts
% fro
m th
e to
tal n
um
be
r o
f to
rna
do r
ep
ort
s
![Page 8: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
torn
ado r
eport
s
tornadoes were reported
in Europe between 2004–2013
2338
![Page 9: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Nomenclature of
Territorial Units for
Statistics (NUTS)
![Page 11: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Bayesian hierarchical models approach
![Page 13: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
𝑝𝑘 𝜃 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝜃/𝑥𝑘
𝑛𝑘|𝑁𝑘 , 𝑝𝑘 𝜃 ∼ 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑘, 𝑝𝑘
𝑁𝑘|𝜆 ∼ 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝜆𝑎𝑘
![Page 14: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
𝑝 𝜃, 𝜆, 𝑁1, … , 𝑁𝐾|𝑛1, … , 𝑛𝐾
∝
𝑘=1
𝐾
𝑝 𝑛𝑘|𝑁𝑘, 𝜃 𝑝 𝑁𝑘|𝜆 𝑝 𝜃 𝑝 𝜆
𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝜃 ~𝑁 𝜇, 𝜎2 ~N 0.5, 10000
𝜆~ 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎 𝑞, 𝑟 ~𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎(0.001, 0.001)
![Page 15: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)
using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)
for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear
2004–2013 ERA Interim
0.75ox0.75o
1200 UTC35 levels
NCAR/NCEP reanalysis
1997–1999
1.915ox1.875o
1800 UTC28 levels
![Page 17: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)
using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)
for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear
log 𝜆 = 𝛼0+ 𝛼1𝑛Explanatory model
2004–2013 ERA Interim
0.75ox0.75o
1200 UTC35 levels
NCAR/NCEP reanalysis
1997–1999
1.915ox1.875o
1800 UTC28 levels
![Page 19: Tornadoes in Europe: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a8cfa81a28ab21308b46a1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)