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Top Trends, Emerging

Technologies and the Impact on the

Higher Education Ecosystem

Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl

#GartnerSYM1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

"We live at a time when innovations present remarkable opportunities for new forms of education."

— Jane den Hollander,Vice-Chancellor (President)

Deakin University


… It Is in Our DNA …

Your Deceptive Mind: A Scientific Guide to Critical Thinking Skills

— Professor Steven Novella

We Predict all the Time …

… And Enables Us to Adapt


But the Game Is Changing …

No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel

"Reset Your Intuition"

… And the Name of the Game Is Speed …


Key Issues

1. Predicting the future

2. Preparing for the future

3. Products in the future


Key Issues




"The future is already here —it's just not very evenly distributed."

— William Gibson

Superforecasting

Philip E. Tetlock and Daniel Gardner


1. Competency-Based Education

2. Reinventing Credentials

3. Analytics Everywhere

4. Ranking Race

5. Breaking Boundaries

6. "Revenue" Diversification

7. Increasing Political Intervention

8. Innovative Learning Spaces

9. Personalization

10. Recruiting

Runners Up

– Productivity Metrics

– E-Research

Business Trends (What We See):

1. Student Success


3. Reinventing Credits

4. Analytics Everywhere

5. Institution Branding

6. Breaking Boundaries

7. (Re)Thinking Business Models

8. Increasing Political Intervention

9. Innovative Learning Spaces

10. E-Research

Bonus Trends

– Digital (in) Strategy

– Ed-Tech Boom

1. Student Success

2. Reinventing Credits

3. Glocal Competition for Students

4. (Re)-Thinking Business Models

5. Retreating Political Responsibility


7. Learning Analytics

8. Data-Driven Decisions

9. Consumerized Expectations

10. E-Research

Bonus Trends

– Race Against the Machine

– An Aging Workforce

7 Retired5 Retained

5 Retired7 Retained

5 New7 Retained

2017 2016 2015


The Higher Education Business Trend Hype Cycle (Conceptual View)

Technology Trigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope ofEnlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Time

Expectations

Race Against the Machine

Student Success

Learning Analytics

Analytics Everywhere

Glocal Competitionfor Students

Competency-Based Education

Data-DrivenDecisions

Digital (in) Strategy

Reinventing Credentials

Ranking

(Re)ThinkingBusiness Models

Institutional Branding

Retreating Political Responsibility

ConsumerizedExpectations

Ed-Tech BoomAn Aging Workforce

Breaking Boundaries

"Revenue" Diversification

Increasing Political Intervention

E-Research

Innovative Learning Spaces

Productivity Metrics

Recruiting

Personalization

24 trends to customize in 2017 toolkit!19 trends to customize in 2016 toolkit12 trends to customize in 2015 toolkit

Blockchain in Edu

Tin Can APILi-Fi

VR/AR in Edu.

Bluetooth Beacons

Robotic Telepresence

Exostructure Strategy

MOOC Platforms

Classroom 3D Printing

Affective Computing

Digital Assessment

SaaS SIS

Competency-Based Edu Platforms

Learning Analytics

SIS International Data Interoperability Standards

Institutional Analytics

DevOpsHosted Virtual Desktop Services

Open Microcredentials

Citizen Developers

Alumni CRM

Adaptive E-Textbooks

Big Data in Education

Student Retention CRM

IDaaS

Master DataManagement

Open-Source SIS

Adaptive Learning Platforms

Gamification

Learning Stack

Digital Preservation of Research Data

Wireless as a Service

Integration Brokerage

Mobile Learning Smartphones

Virtual Worlds

SaaS Administration Applications

Cloud HPC/CaaS

E-Textbook

BYOD Strategy

Smart MachineEdu Applications


Hype Cycle for Education, 2016 — A CIO Toolbox

From "Hype Cycle for Education, 2016" (G00289614)

more than 10 years

obsolete before plateau

Years to mainstream adoption:

less than 2 years

5 to 10 years

2 to 5 years

InnovationTrigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations

Trough ofDisillusionment

Slope of EnlightenmentPlateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

As of July 2016

Blockchain in Edu

Tin Can API

Li-Fi

Smart MachineEdu Applications

VR/AR in Edu.

Bluetooth Beacons

Robotic Telepresence

Exostructure Strategy

MOOC Platforms

Classroom 3D Printing

Affective Computing

Digital Assessment

SaaS SIS

Competency-Based Edu Platforms

Learning Analytics

SIS International Data Interoperability Standards

Institutional Analytics

DevOpsHosted Virtual Desktop Services

Open Microcredentials

Citizen Developers

Alumni CRM


Big Data in Education

Student Retention CRM

IDaaS

Master DataManagement

Open-Source SIS

Adaptive Learning Platforms

Gamification

Learning Stack

Digital Preservation of Research Data

Wireless as a Service

Integration Brokerage

Mobile Learning Smartphones

Virtual Worlds


Cloud HPC/CaaS

E-Textbook

BYOD Strategy

A CIO and CxO Toolbox

https://www.gartner.com/document/3364119


Key Issues




The Evolution of Everything:

How New Ideas Emerge

Matt Ridley

"Nothing can be created out of nothing"

— Lucretius, c. 99 BCE — c. 55 BCE,De Rerum Natura


Explaining the Education Digitization-Digitalization Dimension

Digitization Digitalization

"Mashbook"Adaptive E-Textbooks

MOOC —Social Learning


E-Book Readers

E-Textbook

CD Spotify/PandoraiTunes

MOOC —Scale

MOOC —Weekly Assignments

Open MicrocredentialsBPO

Napster

ERP

MOOC —Peer Grading

"AI&ML" Advisor

MOOC —Machine LearningEssay Grading

Abstracts Online E-Journals "AI&ML" Discovery AdvisorVirtual PA

An

alo

g

LP


Strategic

"Technology"

Map

Newton 1993

iPad 2010

The Power of (Digital) Connections

App Store

Corporate Green Light Hot Spot

People's ChoiceEnabler

Internet

Developer Platform

(Micro)Payment

Memory: ROM 4MB

RAM 640K

Battery 4 AAA

5-10h

PCMCIACPU: ARM610

20 MHz

Modem 9,6K

Screen 336x240 B&WInterface: Pen

Apps

Headphones

Wireless: 802.11a/b/g/n + 3G

Interface: Multi-Touch

Screen 1024x768 Color

Battery Li/Pol

9-10h

Dock/USB

Memory: 64GB

CPU: Apple A4 1GHz

We

Me

n(n - 1)/2Metcalfe's Law

Improves Personal Effectiveness

Imp

rove

s O

rga

niz

ati

on

al

Eff

ec

tive

ne

ss


CIO Agenda 2017: Defining Digital Top Performers

11%17%

28% 29%

12%

3%

Not applicable: Wedo not yet have a

digital initiative

Desire Designing Delivering Scaling Harvesting

Unplugged Late Majority Early Adopters

Q. Which of these best describes the stage of your organization's digitalization efforts?

Very ineffective

Very effective

+Q. How effective is your organization at ...?

Average 4,083,15 2,99

4,16 4,454,55 4,19 3,784,73 4,835,03 5,29

4,875,38 5,29

1234567

Business strategyand planning

Factoring digitalconsiderations into

strategy andplanning

Harvesting resultsfrom digitalization

IT strategy andplanning

IT operations,processes and

project execution

Unplugged (n = 272) Late majority (n = 1,886) Early adopters (n = 369)

Top Performers

7%

Typical Performers

86%

Trailing Performers

7%

=


3%

4%

5%

5%

7%

7%

8%

8%

10%

10%

10%

14%

22%

90%

86%

92%

87%

84%

86%

84%

88%

90%

87%

88%

79%

73%

8%

10%

3%

8%

9%

7%

8%

4%

3%

2%

6%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Education (n=296)

Manufacturing & Natural Resources (n=604)

Transportation (n=103)

Government (n=365)

Wholesale Trade (n=43)

Healthcare Providers (n=70)

Insurance (n=168)

Utilities (n=77)

Communications (n=41)

Retail (n=130)

Banking and Financial Services (n=274)

Services (n=266)

Media (n=49)

Percentage of Respondents

Top Performers Typical Performers Trailing Performers

Top Digital Performers per Industry — No Industry Has a Majority of Mastery — You Still Can Take a Digital Lead

http://www.gartner.com/events/na/orlando-symposium


http://www.gartnereventsondemand.com/


CIO Agenda 2017: Digital Ecosystem Participation Is Growing

Q.Do you think your organization participates in a digital ecosystem?

79%

49%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Top Performers(n = 171)

Typical Performers(n = 2,083)

Trailing Performers(n = 166)

Percentage of Respondents Whose Organizations Participate in a Digital Ecosystem


27

78

143

22

38

78

819

62

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Two years ago Today Two years from now

Average (Mean) Number of Important Digital Partners

Top Performers (n = 105) Typical Performers (n = 712) Trailing Performers (n = 24)

CIO Agenda 2017: Digital Ecosystem Partners Are Becoming More NumerousQ.How many important digital partners did your organization have two years ago? Have today? Two years from now?


CIO Agenda 2017: Top Performers Get Bigger Revenue/Budgets

By what percentage do you expect your organization's revenue or overall budget to increase or decrease from 2016 to 2017?

By what percentage do you expect your organization's total spending on IT to increase or decrease from 2016 to 2017?

8,9%

4,6%

3,7%

2,1%1,7%

0,9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Change in Revenue Change in IT Budget

Change in Total Budget/Revenue and IT Budget from 2016 to 2017

Top Performers (n = 156)

Typical Performers (n = 1,888)

Trailing Performers (n = 154)




Ecosystem

Mediu

m

Market


Please Remember …

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful."

— George BoxEnglish Statistician, 1919-2013

p. 424 Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987),Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces,

John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.


General

Specific

General

Education Ecosystem

Analo

gM

ediu

m

Dig

ital

Create Market Consume

Digital Infrastructure

Digital Exostructure

"Industry" Exostructure

Societal Infrastructure

HEITools/

ServicesSocietyEmployer

EducationProviders

Indirect IndirectDirect

Gen II

HTTP TCP/IP

ASU

USC

Udacity

Lynda.com

Elsevier

Workday

Money Patent

DiplomaProgram

CaliperOpen Badge

Flipkart

Starbucks Citizen

Pell Grants

DoE

CSN

URL HTML SMTP

eT

Blackboard



Partnering in the Digital(ized) Education Ecosystem

General

Specific

General

Blockchain




HEITools/

Services SocietyEmployerEducationProviders

Georgia Tech

2U

USC

Lynda.com

LinkedIn

ACME Inc.

Starbucks

ASU

AT&T


UT System

Food Chainvs.

Food Web

Speedand

Personalization

Uni X

Microsoft

Citizen

wadeandwendy.ai

Capgemini

Analo

gM

ediu

m

Dig

ital



Flipkart

UdacityUdacity

Salesforce.org

Blockchain

EvAlgo Inc

Sony Education

Open BadgeOpen Badges


Partnering in Your Digitalized Education Ecosystem?




HEITools/


URL HTTPHTML

SMTP/MIME

GAPE

xAPI

Caliper

QTI

eduPerson

MLO

eT

Open Badge

DNSTCP/IP

Udacity

Georgia Tech AT&T

Pearson

StraighterLine

2U

USC

Lynda.com

LinkedIn

EllucianOracle

Canvas

DiplomaProgram

Grant

DoE

Citizen

Money CulturePatent

Courts

Blackboard

ACME Inc

Flipkart

Dublin CoreBologna

Workday

Government

State Government

Starbucks

ASU

PAR CDD

X…

Y…

Z…


Students Loans, CSN

Facebook

Blockchain

Sony Education

Uni X

Elsevier

General

Specific

General

Analo

gM

ediu

m

Dig

ital



EvAlgo Inc


Digital Outpaces Analog in the Education Ecosystem




HEITools/


URL HTTPHTML

SMTP/MIME

GAPExAPI

Caliper

QTI

MLO

eT

Open Badge

DNSTCP/IP

Udacity

Georgia Tech AT&T

Pearson

StraighterLine

2U

USC

Lynda.com

LinkedIn

BannerPeopleSoft

Canvas

DiplomaProgram

Grant

DoE

Citizen

Money CulturePatent

Courts

Blackboard

ACME Inc

Flipkart

Dublin CoreBologna

Workday

Government

State Government

Starbucks

ASU

PAR CDD

General

Specific

General Societal Infrastructure

Students Loans, CSN

Facebook

Blockchain

Sony Education

EvAlgo Inc

Uni X

Elsevier

NonzeroRobert Wright

Analo

gM

ediu

m

Dig

ital



eduPerson

http://www.nonzero.org/toc.htm

http://www.nonzero.org/toc.htm


Ecosystem of Ecosystems


A digital ecosystem is a distributed, adaptive, opensocio-technical system with properties of self-organization, scalability and sustainability inspired from natural ecosystems.

— Wikipedia, 2016

www.ted.com/talks/martin_reeves_how_to_build_a_business_that_lasts_100_years

"… Biospheres on average keep expanding into the adjacent possible"

— Stuart Kauffman, Edge.org, 2003

http://www.ted.com/talks/martin_reeves_how_to_build_a_business_that_lasts_100_years


Key Issues



3. Products shaping the future

Rise of the Robots

Martin Ford

"We shape our buildings and afterwards they shape us."

— Winston Churchill


1. Open Microcredentials

2. Digital Assessment

3. Predictive Analytics

4. Adaptive Learning

5. VR/AR Comeback

6. Integration Technologies

7. Institution Video Management

8. Smart Machines

9. Listening and Sensing Tech.

10. Robotic Telepresence

Runners Up:

– Affective Computing

– Maker Spaces


2. Predictive Analytics

3. CRM (Enroll., Ret., Alumni)

4. Exostructure



7. Smart Machines

8. OER-Ecosystem(Content Collaboration and Self-Publishing)

9. Listening and Sensing Tech

10. Collaboration Tech.

Bonus Trends:

– MOOC-Enabling Technologies

– Physical Virtual Presence


2. (Adaptive) E-Textbooks

3. CRM (Enroll., Ret., Alumni)

4. Big Data

5. Sourcing Strategies (Cloud)

6. Exostructure



9. Mobile

10. Social Learning

Bonus Trends

– MOOCish Technologies

– Cognitive Computing

5 Retired7 Retained

5 Retired7 Retained

5 New7 Retained

2017 2016 2015

Strategic Technologies (What We Think You Should Do):


Corporate Green Light Hot Spot

Enabler People's Choice

E-Textbooks

Adaptive LearningCRM (Retention)

CRM (Enrollment)

CRM (Alumni)

PredictiveAnalytics Smart Machines

Digital Assessment Open Microcredentials

Listening andSensing Tech. OER Ecosystem

Exostructure Collaboration Tech.

DirectImpact

We

IndirectImpact

MeDirectImpact

IndirectImpact

Social Learning


Mobile (Learning)

Mobile(Administration)

SourcingStrategies

BigData

The fundamental question is "Cui bono" — Who benefits?

Marcus Tullius Cicero(106-43 BC)

VR/AR Comeback

IntegrationTechnologies

InstitutionVideoManagement

Robotic TelepresenceAffective Computing

Maker Spaces

22 tech to customize in upcoming 2017 toolkit!

17 tech to customize in 2016 toolkit12 tech to customize in 2015 toolkit

Personal Effectiveness

Org

an

iza

tio

na

l E

ffe

cti

ve

ne

ss

Top Strategic Technologies — The Benefit Map View

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:M-T-Cicero.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:M-T-Cicero.jpg


"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."

— Bill Gates

2004 – Levy and Murnane:

"Driving too complex for

machines alone" 2005 – Stanford team wins 2005 DARPA

Grand Challenge

2008 — Rio Tinto collaboration with Komatsu

America for self-driving trucks, limited environment

2009 — Launch of Google self-driving cars research

2012 — First public discussions of Google Cars, submillimeter resolution roadmaps, lidar sensors

2015 — Tesla Motors and Mobileye, "end-to-end deep network algorithms for sensing and control"

2016 — Reinforcement Learning for

"End-to-End Training of Car" (Nvidia)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuyT2SDcYrU&list

Now: Uber + Volvo/Ford + Pittsburgh …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuyT2SDcYrU&list




AIScaling Education — Quantity and Quality!

Adaptive

RoboticPlatforms

Algorithmic Education Evolution!

Combo 1

Combo 2Personalization

Revolution?

Institution-Centered

People-Centered

Data

People

Big Data

Smart MachineEvolution!

Combo 0

Technology-Centered

Technology


Deakin student advisor powered by Watson

Smart machines needs to be taught:

1. Dialogue

2. Institution data

3. Personal data

Georgia Tech TA "Jill Watson"

Trained by Georgia Tech researchers on 40,000 postings

from a discussion forum

Pepper robot enrolled in Shoshi High School and LDE UTC

Are You Preparing Your Students for a Future With Machines?

The robot, which can detect human emotions, is hired to:

1. Help students struggling with communication

2. Study English

3. Study robotics

Credit: SoftBank RoboticsCredit: "Deakin University"

The Deakin Genie video: https://video.deakin.edu.au/media/t/0_79c8xn2x

https://video.deakin.edu.au/media/t/0_79c8xn2x


Machines of Loving GraceJohn Markoff

Or One Without Humans …?

AI vs. IA

Artificial Intelligencevs.

Intelligence Augmentation S. Levine, P. Pastor, A. Krizhevsky and D. Quillen. "Learning Hand-Eye Coordination for Robotic Grasping With Deep Learning and Large-Scale Data Collection." 2016


"We now face a digital economy wherein our nation depends on highly educated and skilled graduates who are able to embrace the age of smart machines and an age in which

many occupations and jobs will disappear before the end of our next triennium. We must all learn to work with machines

and in the spaces between machines."

— Jane den Hollander, Vice-Chancellor (President)Deakin University


Timing Is Everything …

Identify

Strategic

Opportunities

Evaluate

Sourcing

Options

Establish

Replacement

Plans

Begin

Replacement

Source: "IT Market Clock for Higher Education, 2016" (G00308860)

Key Trends

Digitization: From Premise to Cloud

Digitalization: Collecting and Connecting Data to Feed Smart Machines

Higher Education Market Clock 2016



Use Gartner's top tens, Hype Cycles and Market Clocks

to understand your context and inform your own institutional view:

– Begin with business trends, align strategic technologies in a timely

fashion and iterate.

Use the ecosystem view to understand your "co-opetition" potential

and risk:

– Especially evaluate how digital is impacting speed and personalization.

Start the algorithmic education evolution to be prepared for the

smart machine revolution:

– Digitization always come before digitalization: so you can start NOW!

Recommendations


Recommended Gartner Research

Research Roundup for Top 10 Business Trends and Strategic Technologies Impacting Higher Education in 2017Jan-Martin Lowendahl, Terri-Lynn B. Thayer and Glenda Morgan (G00304276)

Hype Cycle for Education, 2016Jan-Martin Lowendahl (G00289614)

IT Market Clock for Higher Education, 2016Terri-Lynn B. Thayer, Glenda Morgan and Others (G00308860)

Analytics, Assessment and Adaptive Learning Will Prepare You for the Algorithmic Education EvolutionJan-Martin Lowendahl and Glenda Morgan (G00300304)

Deakin University Uses Smart Machines to Innovate Student EngagementNick Ingelbrecht and Jan-Martin Lowendahl (G00300625)

Reinventing Education Credentials Using Blockchain as a Possible Missing Link for the Open Badge InfrastructureJan-Martin Lowendahl and David Furlonger (G00302923)

For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.







Check out sessions you missed or watchyour favorite sessions again.

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CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYThis presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other intended recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2015 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Dr. Jan-Martin Lowendahl

[email protected]

Leveraging

Gartner Technology Frameworks

For Agile Component Based

Strategic Planning

40 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2015 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Key Issue

f(x y z )

€=People Process

Start Action 1 Decision Action 2 ResultStart Action 1 Decision Action 2 Result

Technologyf(x y z )

€=PeoplePeople Process


Process


TechnologyTechnology

n


"Traditional" IT Strategy Template

Executive Summary

Demand Control Supply

Institution Context

Institution Success

Institution Capabilities

IT Contribution

IT Principles

IT Governance

IT Financial Management

Metrics

IT Services

Enterprise Architecture

People

Sourcing

Risks and Issues

Detailed Appendixes

"Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.“― Dwight D. Eisenhower

"IT Strategy: A CIO Success Kit" (G00166022)

"IT Strategy Template" (G00167280)

Rise to the Leadership Challenge


Team Sport Tools to Strategize and Prioritize — the Agile Strategic Planning Process

Control

IT Principles

IT Governance

IT FinancialManagement

Metrics

SupplyIT Services

Enterprise Architecture

People

Sourcing

ServPort

Demand

Institution Context

Institution Success


IT Contribution

EducationEcosystem

HEBusModScen

BenMap:Cap

BenMap:Tech

Doing the right thing

Hype Cycle

HE Bus Top 10

Doing things right

ProjPort

ServPort

ServCat

SimServSourcMap

DigMom

Tech Top 10IT-Market Clock

Rise to the Leadership Challenge

STEPLE


Short –Term Planning Horizon

Mid –Term PlanningHorizon

Long –Term Planning Horizon

Emergent Strategy:Calibration and

continuous learning

Planned Strategy:Cascading goals andcontinuous alignment

BUSINESS STRATEGY

STRATEGIC PLANS

OPERATIONAL PLANS

How the business will compete and succeed in the long term, including a description of

how information and technology will contribute to business success.

The collective plans and tactics of key capabilities, such as information and

technology, marketing, and supply chain, creating the common game plan for

achieving the strategy.

Detailed plans for how teams will contribute to success of the

strategy, including project and capacity plans.


”Business Streategy” v2.0

Bus. Capabilities

IT Contribution

Business Context

Business Success

IT Principles

Metrics

Institution Context

Metrics

Strategic Principles

INSTITUTION STRATEGY

Institution Objectives, Goals, and Strategies

Strategic Choices

Institution

Capabilities

People and Culture

Information and Technology

Ecosystem


Toward A Complete Adaptive Strategic Planning Process

Institution Context

Business Models/Moments


Technology Context

Technology Profiles

Digital Strategy

Ana/Dig Ecosystem

Scenario Planning

Capability Benefit Maps

Top 10 Biz Trends

Education Ecosystem

Hype Cycle

Top 10 Tech Trends

Tech Benefit Maps

MQs

9

2

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Digital Moments

IT Market Clock

PMOServicesSourcing

//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1878_Darwin_photo_by_Leonard_from_Woodall_1884.jpg

//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1878_Darwin_photo_by_Leonard_from_Woodall_1884.jpg

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