top ten key attributes of our investment strategies · which is disciplined and structured to avoid...
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Q4 2018
Top 10 Key Attributes of our Investment Strategy
2
Top 10 Key Attributes
Enables access to a larger opportunity set and to better diversify client portfolios
Primarily motivated by a disciplined assessment of valuations
We invest with patience and a focus on the likely long-term outcome
4) Diversified Multi-asset Class Approach
With the aim of delivering attractive risk-return profiles
Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis
We utilise a mix of active managers and low cost index trackers to achieve an optimal outcome
Our portfolios are all risk graded and carefully managed within defined volatility parameters
We strive to be completely transparent and open in our communications
We aim to serve our clients through the adoption of best market practise across all areas;
we always put our client’s interests first
A well-resourced team of investment professionals
1. Global Investment Approach
2. Valuation Driven Decision Making
3. Long-term Focus
4. Diversified Multi-asset Class Approach
5. Clear Investment Process
6. Pragmatic Manager Selection Process
7. Risk Monitoring
8. Transparency
9. Stewardship
10. An Experienced Team
3
USA Europe ex-UK
UK Japan
Asian Pacific x japan South Africa
Emerging Markets RoW
Source: Bloomberg, iShares, Kames Capital, Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018.
All denominated in USD.
1. MSCI ACWI
2. Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Index
3. Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index - iShares Global Corp Bond
4. Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index
Global Equities - $41.5Trn 1
2
1. Global Investment Approach Greater opportunity set
52.3%
13.7%
7.6%
SA, 0.7%
13.9%
6.9%
UK, 5.0%
29.6%
27.4%
28.9%
0.1% 5.1% 2.8%
Global Government - $27.4Trn
UK, 6.2%
SA, 0.0%
52.9%
23.7%
UK, 8.5%
3.2% 2.8%
SA, 0.1%
3.5% 5.3%
Global Investment Grade - $9.4Trn 3
46.2%
13.6% UK, 3.3%
0.3% 0.2%
SA, 1.3%
32.3%
2.9%
Global High Yield - $2.3Trn 4
4
MSCI ACWI % FTSE 100 % MSCI South Africa %
1 Apple 1.9% HSBC 7.7% Naspers 29.4%
2 Microsoft 1.8% Royal Dutch Shell 6.2% Sasol 5.5%
3 Amazon 1.5% BP 5.7% Standard Bank Group 5.4%
4 Johnson & Johnson 0.9% Royal Dutch Shell 5.2% FirstRand 5.1%
5 JP Morgan Chase 0.8% AstraZeneca 4.4% MTN Group 3.5%
6 Alphabet C 0.8% GlaxoSmithKline 4.3% Sanlam 3.3%
7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo 4.0% Absa Group 2.7%
8 Alphabet A 0.8% British American Tobacco 3.4% Old Mutual 2.6%
9 Exxon Mobil 0.7% Unilever 2.6% Nedbank 2.6%
10 Berkshire Hathaway B 0.7% Rio Tinto 2.5% Remgro 2.4%
10.6% 45.8% 62.4%
Market Diversity – Top 10 Constituents
Less concentration in top 10 holdings
= More Diversification
1. Global Investment Approach Greater diversification
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Cons.Discr Cons.St Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Inf. Tech Materials Real Estate Comm. Services Utilities
Equity Markets MSCI ACWI FTSE 100 MSCI South Africa
Number of Stocks = 2758 101 49
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018.
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Subsequent 5 Year Annualised Total Return (%)
Correlation = +0.95
Current YTM: 2.6
Yield to maturity,
US Treasuries
Equities Corporate Bonds (HY) Government Bonds
10
15
20
25
30
35
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Subsequent 10 Year Annualised Total Return (%)
Correlation = -0.94
Current P/E ratio: 17.2
Trailing P/E ratio,
US Equities
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Subsequent 5 Year Annualised Excess Return (%)
Correlation = +0.80
Current Spread:
533.0
Spread,
US High Yield
10
15
20
25
30
35-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Trailing P/E Ratio
10 Year Return - LHS
Trailing P/E Ratio - RHS
10 Year Annualised
Return, %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Yield to Maturity
5 Year Total Return - LHS
Yield to Maturity - RHS
5 Year Annualised
Total Return, %
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Spread
5 Year Excess Return - LHS
Spread - RHS
5 Year Excess
Return, %
Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofAML Merrill Lynch, Nedgroup Investments. Latest data as of 31st December 2018.
2. Valuation Driven Valuation is the main driver of your long term return
6
Short term - Driven by Investor Emotions The Roller Coaster of Investor Emotions
Short term - Driven by 24/7 Financial News
Caution
“Better wait to
see if it lasts”
“This time it’s
different – the boom
will go on forever”
Overconfidence
Most
people buy
here
“This is easy
money! Let’s
borrow to buy
more!”
Greed
Denial
Despair
Desperation
Pessimism
Caution
“This is just a
minor hiccup. It
will come back”
“Dump
everything! – I
don’t care what
it costs!” “I’ll NEVER
touch shares
EVER again!”
“This recovery
won’t last”
“Better
wait to see
if it lasts”
Prices
Long
term
trend
Most
people sell
here
Source: Philo Capital, silverdoctors.com, Bloomberg, Nedgroup Investments.
3. A Long Term Focus We try to look beyond the short term noise
7
3. A Long Term Focus Concentrating on valuation and fundamentals
10
15
20
25
30
35
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Subsequent 10 Year Annualised Total Return (%)
Correlation = -0.94
Current P/E ratio: 17.2
Trailing P/E ratio, US
Equities
Lower Dispersion of Returns over the Long Term
(US Equities – Annualised Returns since 1993) US Nominal GDP Growth
Long Term “Weighing Machine” Long term – Valuations and Fundamentals
10.9% 10.0% 9.4% 8.3% 6.8%
53.4%
33.7% 29.7%
21.4%
14.4%
-43.1%
-17.2%
-6.3% -3.7% -3.7%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year
Annualised Total Returns Average
Max
Min
Source: Bloomberg, wordpress.com, Nedgroup Investments. Latest data as of 31st December 2018.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
% Recession
GDP, YoY %
8
4. A Multi-Asset Class Approach Greater diversification / lower volatility
(GBP Returns)
Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018. All denominated in GBP.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10-Yr Ann 10-Yr Vol
Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts UK High Yield S&P Global Property UK Gilts IL UK High Yield US Equities S&P Global Property Japan Equities EM Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK CPI (YoY) UK High Yield EM Equities
38.3% 13.0% 101.7% 24.9% 21.4% 37.1% 29.2% 20.8% 15.9% 32.7% 29.4% 2.1% 16.8% 16.8%
EM Equities Global Gov't Bond EM Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts S&P Global Property Europe x UK Equities US Equities US Equities US Equities EM Equities Global Gov't Bond US Equities Asia x Japan Equities
37.6% 11.7% 61.1% 23.9% 16.9% 25.4% 25.1% 19.8% 6.5% 32.4% 25.3% 1.0% 14.0% 16.3%
Europe x UK Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Global High Yield EM Equities Global Gov't IL Global High Yield Japan Equities UK Gilts IL S&P Global Property Developed Equities Europe x UK Equities US Equities S&P Global Property Europe x UK Equities
15.1% 5.3% 59.5% 23.1% 11.6% 18.7% 24.7% 18.9% 5.8% 28.3% 15.8% 0.8% 12.2% 16.2%
UK Gilts IL UK Gilts IL Asia x Japan Equities UK High Yield Global Gov't Bond Asia x Japan Equities Developed Equities UK Gilts UK High Yield Asia x Japan Equities Japan Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Asia x Japan Equities S&P Global Property
8.4% 3.6% 55.3% 21.2% 6.3% 16.8% 24.2% 14.7% 5.4% 25.8% 13.2% 0.6% 11.6% 15.7%
Global Gov't IL UK CPI (YoY) UK Equities Japan Equities UK Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities UK Equities UK Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities UK Gilts IL Developed Equities UK Gilts Global High Yield Japan Equities
8.3% 3.0% 29.3% 19.6% 5.9% 15.8% 18.3% 12.6% 5.1% 25.2% 11.7% 0.5% 11.2% 12.9%
Developed Equities Global Gov't IL S&P Global Property US Equities Global Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade UK High Yield Developed Equities Developed Equities S&P Global Property UK Equities UK Gilts IL Developed Equities US Equities
7.6% 1.9% 27.5% 18.9% 5.1% 15.8% 11.8% 11.6% 4.8% 25.2% 11.6% -0.3% 11.1% 12.8%
UK Equities Global Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities Developed Equities UK CPI (YoY) EM Equities Global High Yield Asia x Japan Equities Global Gov't Bond Japan Equities US Equities S&P Global Property EM Equities UK Equities
7.0% -3.4% 19.7% 15.8% 4.3% 12.9% 7.3% 11.4% 1.7% 22.2% 10.6% -1.4% 9.5% 12.6%
Global Gov't Bond Japan Equities Developed Equities Global High Yield Global High Yield Global Inv. Grade UK CPI (YoY) Global Gov't IL UK Inv. Grade UK Equities UK High Yield Global Gov't IL UK Equities Developed Equities
6.4% -3.7% 17.3% 15.0% 2.9% 10.9% 2.0% 9.8% 0.5% 19.2% 7.8% -1.5% 8.3% 12.4%
UK Gilts UK Inv. Grade Global Inv. Grade UK Equities US Equities Developed Equities UK Inv. Grade Global Gov't Bond UK Gilts Europe x UK Equities Global High Yield UK High Yield UK Gilts IL UK High Yield
5.2% -9.1% 16.1% 12.6% 1.9% 10.6% 1.8% 8.7% 0.5% 18.7% 6.7% -1.6% 7.8% 10.5%
US Equities US Equities UK Inv. Grade UK Gilts IL GBP LIBID 3 Month US Equities S&P Global Property Global Inv. Grade GBP LIBID 3 Month Global High Yield S&P Global Property UK Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade UK Gilts IL
4.1% -15.1% 15.4% 8.9% 0.8% 10.1% 1.7% 8.0% 0.5% 15.7% 6.0% -2.3% 7.4% 8.9%
Global Inv. Grade Developed Equities US Equities UK Inv. Grade UK Equities UK Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK High Yield UK CPI (YoY) UK Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade Global Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities Global High Yield
3.8% -19.3% 14.0% 8.8% -2.0% 10.1% 1.1% 5.6% 0.2% 11.9% 5.1% -2.5% 7.2% 7.7%
Global High Yield UK High Yield Global Gov't IL UK Gilts UK High Yield Global Gov't IL GBP LIBID 3 Month EM Equities Global Inv. Grade UK Gilts Global Inv. Grade Developed Equities Japan Equities UK Gilts
2.2% -25.0% 8.9% 7.6% -3.0% 7.4% 0.4% 4.0% 0.1% 10.6% 4.6% -3.1% 6.8% 6.6%
UK CPI (YoY) Europe x UK Equities UK Gilts IL Global Inv. Grade Developed Equities Global Gov't Bond Global Inv. Grade Global High Yield Global Gov't IL UK High Yield UK CPI (YoY) Global High Yield Global Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade
2.1% -25.9% 6.2% 7.5% -5.0% 4.6% 0.2% 2.7% -0.3% 10.5% 2.6% -3.6% 5.4% 6.6%
UK Inv. Grade Global High Yield UK CPI (YoY) Europe x UK Equities S&P Global Property Japan Equities UK Gilts IL Japan Equities UK Gilts IL Global Gov't IL UK Gilts IL Japan Equities UK Gilts Global Gov't IL
0.5% -27.4% 2.9% 5.2% -6.9% 3.3% 0.0% 2.0% -1.2% 10.3% 2.3% -7.6% 4.8% 4.6%
GBP LIBID 3 Month UK Equities Global Gov't Bond Global Gov't IL Japan Equities UK Gilts Global Gov't Bond UK Equities Global High Yield Global Inv. Grade Global Gov't IL UK Equities Global Gov't IL Global Inv. Grade
0.5% -29.7% 1.2% 5.2% -13.9% 2.8% -0.2% 0.6% -2.1% 5.7% 2.2% -8.9% 4.8% 3.6%
UK High Yield S&P Global Property GBP LIBID 3 Month Global Gov't Bond Europe x UK Equities UK CPI (YoY) UK Gilts UK CPI (YoY) UK Equities Global Gov't Bond UK Gilts Asia x Japan Equities Global Gov't Bond Global Gov't Bond
-0.9% -30.4% 1.0% 3.9% -14.8% 2.6% -4.3% 0.5% -2.2% 3.6% 1.9% -9.1% 3.2% 2.9%
Japan Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts UK CPI (YoY) Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts IL EM Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Asia x Japan Equities UK CPI (YoY) Global Gov't Bond EM Equities UK CPI (YoY) UK CPI (YoY)
-5.5% -35.2% -1.3% 3.6% -16.9% 0.8% -4.5% 0.4% -3.9% 1.6% 1.1% -9.4% 2.3% 1.2%
S&P Global Property EM Equities Japan Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month EM Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Global Gov't IL Europe x UK Equities EM Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month GBP LIBID 3 Month Europe x UK Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month GBP LIBID 3 Month
-6.0% -36.5% -4.1% 0.6% -18.0% 0.7% -4.6% -0.6% -10.0% 0.3% 0.2% -10.0% 0.6% 0.1%
9
Structured investment process No investment process Vs.
5. A Clear Investment Process Reduces the risk of emotional decisions
Strategic
Allocation
Tactical
Allocation
Fund
Selection
Portfolio Construction
And Risk Management
Fund Monitoring and
Reporting
Source: pinterest.com, Nedgroup Investments.
We work with
clients to set
the appropriate
long-term asset
allocation
framework
We aim to add
value through
short-term
tactical asset
allocation
Portfolios are
constructed
after carefully
considering
potential risks
and rewards
Risk tools
include Style
Research and
Fixed Income
Risk Analysis
Through our
research, we
aim to add
value by
picking the best
funds
All funds must
pass
operational due
diligence,
which is done
independently
of the
investment
team
We monitor
progress daily,
making
changes when
necessary.
Research and
Analysis
Risk Management
and Fund Monitoring
10
6. Pragmatic Manager Selection Approach Using active and passive
Source: Nedgroup Investments.
Some markets are harder than others,
..in markets that we believe are difficult for active managers to outperform we hold more exposure in passive / index funds
Alignment of interests
Access
Acts as stewards of capital
Size is a consideration
Separate operational due diligence
If in doubt, don’t choose
1
2 Beating the market is difficult
3 Investment philosophy
Stability & Strength 4 5 6
Good active managers exist and can be found
7 8 9 10
…and process
…of fund manager / team
…to fund manager / team
…especially over short term …therefore judge managers over full market cycle
…of the active manager must be bought into
11
7. Risk Monitoring Portfolios are managed within defined volatility bands
• We offer tailored profiles across the risk spectrum to cater to
client-specific objectives and varying levels of risk
tolerance
• Asset class weightings vary depending on their unique
risk/return trade-offs
Risk vs Return by Asset Class
100%
40%
5%
40%
10%
5%
80%
5%
5%
5% 5%
Ex
pe
cte
d R
etu
rn
Expected Portfolio Volatility
60%
5%
20%
10%
5%
Cash
Bonds
Equities
Property
Other
LIBID + 3-5% LIBID + 1-3% LIBID + 2-4% LIBID Return
Objectives*
Low Risk
Low-Medium Risk
Medium-High Risk
High Risk
DM Large-Cap Equities
DM Small-Cap Equities
EM Equities
Govt. Bonds
Inflation-linked Govt. Bonds
Corp. Bonds
High Yield Bonds
EM Bonds
Cash
Real Estate
Commodities
Hedge funds
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24%
Return
(Annualised)
Risk
(Annualised)
Source: mywealthsolutions.com, Bloomberg, MSCI, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Dow Jones, Hedge Fund Research. Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018.
Currency: USD
*In the currency of the relevant share class
12
8. Transparency We strive to be open as possible
Source: Nedgroup Investments.
e.g. Underlying exposures distributed monthly
13
To act for the benefit of clients
9. Stewardship We always put client’s interests first
Source: Nedgroup Investments.
We take our responsibility towards client assets seriously
As a result, we aim to ensure our policies / business practices reflect:
principles of accountability
transparency
integrity
in the following areas:
1 2 3 4 5 6
To act in a professional and ethical manner at all times
To act with independence and objectivity
To act with skill, competence, and diligence
To uphold the rules governing capital markets
To communicate with clients in a timely and accurate manner
14
10. Experienced Team A well-resourced team of investment professionals
Experienced investment team
25 tertiary qualifications (BSc, BA, MSc, MBA, CFA, CAIA)
NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS MULTI-MANAGEMENT TEAM
South African Team UK Team
Source: Nedgroup Investments.
15
Regulatory information
Nedgroup Investments MultiFunds Plc (the Fund) is authorised and regulated in Ireland by the Central Bank of Ireland. The Fund is authorised as a UCITS pursuant to the European
Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011 (S.I. No. 352 of 2011) as amended from time-to-time.
This document is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication or use would be
contrary to law or regulation.
The value of shares can fall as well as rise. Investors may not get back the value of their original investment.
The Fund and certain of its sub-funds are recognised in accordance with Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. UK investors should read the Appendix for UK
Investors in conjunction with the Fund's Prospectus which are available from the Investment Manager. www.nedgroupinvestments.com
Singapore investors should read the Appendix for Singapore Investors in conjunction with the Fund's Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) which are available
from the Investment Manager. www.nedgroupinvestments.com
The Fund has been recognised under paragraph 1 of schedule 4 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act 2008 of the Isle of Man. Isle of Man investors are not protected by statutory
compensation arrangements in respect of the Fund.
Nedgroup Investment (IOM) Limited (reg no 57917C), the Investment Manager and Distributor of the Fund, is licensed by the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority.
Nedgroup Investment Advisors (UK) Limited (reg no 2627187) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.