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Q4 2018 Top 10 Key Attributes of our Investment Strategy

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Page 1: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

Q4 2018

Top 10 Key Attributes of our Investment Strategy

Page 2: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

2

Top 10 Key Attributes

Enables access to a larger opportunity set and to better diversify client portfolios

Primarily motivated by a disciplined assessment of valuations

We invest with patience and a focus on the likely long-term outcome

4) Diversified Multi-asset Class Approach

With the aim of delivering attractive risk-return profiles

Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis

We utilise a mix of active managers and low cost index trackers to achieve an optimal outcome

Our portfolios are all risk graded and carefully managed within defined volatility parameters

We strive to be completely transparent and open in our communications

We aim to serve our clients through the adoption of best market practise across all areas;

we always put our client’s interests first

A well-resourced team of investment professionals

1. Global Investment Approach

2. Valuation Driven Decision Making

3. Long-term Focus

4. Diversified Multi-asset Class Approach

5. Clear Investment Process

6. Pragmatic Manager Selection Process

7. Risk Monitoring

8. Transparency

9. Stewardship

10. An Experienced Team

Page 3: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

3

USA Europe ex-UK

UK Japan

Asian Pacific x japan South Africa

Emerging Markets RoW

Source: Bloomberg, iShares, Kames Capital, Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018.

All denominated in USD.

1. MSCI ACWI

2. Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury Index

3. Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index - iShares Global Corp Bond

4. Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield Index

Global Equities - $41.5Trn 1

2

1. Global Investment Approach Greater opportunity set

52.3%

13.7%

7.6%

SA, 0.7%

13.9%

6.9%

UK, 5.0%

29.6%

27.4%

28.9%

0.1% 5.1% 2.8%

Global Government - $27.4Trn

UK, 6.2%

SA, 0.0%

52.9%

23.7%

UK, 8.5%

3.2% 2.8%

SA, 0.1%

3.5% 5.3%

Global Investment Grade - $9.4Trn 3

46.2%

13.6% UK, 3.3%

0.3% 0.2%

SA, 1.3%

32.3%

2.9%

Global High Yield - $2.3Trn 4

Page 4: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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MSCI ACWI % FTSE 100 % MSCI South Africa %

1 Apple 1.9% HSBC 7.7% Naspers 29.4%

2 Microsoft 1.8% Royal Dutch Shell 6.2% Sasol 5.5%

3 Amazon 1.5% BP 5.7% Standard Bank Group 5.4%

4 Johnson & Johnson 0.9% Royal Dutch Shell 5.2% FirstRand 5.1%

5 JP Morgan Chase 0.8% AstraZeneca 4.4% MTN Group 3.5%

6 Alphabet C 0.8% GlaxoSmithKline 4.3% Sanlam 3.3%

7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo 4.0% Absa Group 2.7%

8 Alphabet A 0.8% British American Tobacco 3.4% Old Mutual 2.6%

9 Exxon Mobil 0.7% Unilever 2.6% Nedbank 2.6%

10 Berkshire Hathaway B 0.7% Rio Tinto 2.5% Remgro 2.4%

10.6% 45.8% 62.4%

Market Diversity – Top 10 Constituents

Less concentration in top 10 holdings

= More Diversification

1. Global Investment Approach Greater diversification

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Cons.Discr Cons.St Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Inf. Tech Materials Real Estate Comm. Services Utilities

Equity Markets MSCI ACWI FTSE 100 MSCI South Africa

Number of Stocks = 2758 101 49

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018.

Page 5: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Subsequent 5 Year Annualised Total Return (%)

Correlation = +0.95

Current YTM: 2.6

Yield to maturity,

US Treasuries

Equities Corporate Bonds (HY) Government Bonds

10

15

20

25

30

35

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Subsequent 10 Year Annualised Total Return (%)

Correlation = -0.94

Current P/E ratio: 17.2

Trailing P/E ratio,

US Equities

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Subsequent 5 Year Annualised Excess Return (%)

Correlation = +0.80

Current Spread:

533.0

Spread,

US High Yield

10

15

20

25

30

35-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Trailing P/E Ratio

10 Year Return - LHS

Trailing P/E Ratio - RHS

10 Year Annualised

Return, %

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Yield to Maturity

5 Year Total Return - LHS

Yield to Maturity - RHS

5 Year Annualised

Total Return, %

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Spread

5 Year Excess Return - LHS

Spread - RHS

5 Year Excess

Return, %

Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofAML Merrill Lynch, Nedgroup Investments. Latest data as of 31st December 2018.

2. Valuation Driven Valuation is the main driver of your long term return

Page 6: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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Short term - Driven by Investor Emotions The Roller Coaster of Investor Emotions

Short term - Driven by 24/7 Financial News

Caution

“Better wait to

see if it lasts”

“This time it’s

different – the boom

will go on forever”

Overconfidence

Most

people buy

here

“This is easy

money! Let’s

borrow to buy

more!”

Greed

Denial

Despair

Desperation

Pessimism

Caution

“This is just a

minor hiccup. It

will come back”

“Dump

everything! – I

don’t care what

it costs!” “I’ll NEVER

touch shares

EVER again!”

“This recovery

won’t last”

“Better

wait to see

if it lasts”

Prices

Long

term

trend

Most

people sell

here

Source: Philo Capital, silverdoctors.com, Bloomberg, Nedgroup Investments.

3. A Long Term Focus We try to look beyond the short term noise

Page 7: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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3. A Long Term Focus Concentrating on valuation and fundamentals

10

15

20

25

30

35

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Subsequent 10 Year Annualised Total Return (%)

Correlation = -0.94

Current P/E ratio: 17.2

Trailing P/E ratio, US

Equities

Lower Dispersion of Returns over the Long Term

(US Equities – Annualised Returns since 1993) US Nominal GDP Growth

Long Term “Weighing Machine” Long term – Valuations and Fundamentals

10.9% 10.0% 9.4% 8.3% 6.8%

53.4%

33.7% 29.7%

21.4%

14.4%

-43.1%

-17.2%

-6.3% -3.7% -3.7%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year

Annualised Total Returns Average

Max

Min

Source: Bloomberg, wordpress.com, Nedgroup Investments. Latest data as of 31st December 2018.

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

% Recession

GDP, YoY %

Page 8: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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4. A Multi-Asset Class Approach Greater diversification / lower volatility

(GBP Returns)

Source: Bloomberg, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018. All denominated in GBP.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10-Yr Ann 10-Yr Vol

Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts UK High Yield S&P Global Property UK Gilts IL UK High Yield US Equities S&P Global Property Japan Equities EM Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK CPI (YoY) UK High Yield EM Equities

38.3% 13.0% 101.7% 24.9% 21.4% 37.1% 29.2% 20.8% 15.9% 32.7% 29.4% 2.1% 16.8% 16.8%

EM Equities Global Gov't Bond EM Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts S&P Global Property Europe x UK Equities US Equities US Equities US Equities EM Equities Global Gov't Bond US Equities Asia x Japan Equities

37.6% 11.7% 61.1% 23.9% 16.9% 25.4% 25.1% 19.8% 6.5% 32.4% 25.3% 1.0% 14.0% 16.3%

Europe x UK Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Global High Yield EM Equities Global Gov't IL Global High Yield Japan Equities UK Gilts IL S&P Global Property Developed Equities Europe x UK Equities US Equities S&P Global Property Europe x UK Equities

15.1% 5.3% 59.5% 23.1% 11.6% 18.7% 24.7% 18.9% 5.8% 28.3% 15.8% 0.8% 12.2% 16.2%

UK Gilts IL UK Gilts IL Asia x Japan Equities UK High Yield Global Gov't Bond Asia x Japan Equities Developed Equities UK Gilts UK High Yield Asia x Japan Equities Japan Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Asia x Japan Equities S&P Global Property

8.4% 3.6% 55.3% 21.2% 6.3% 16.8% 24.2% 14.7% 5.4% 25.8% 13.2% 0.6% 11.6% 15.7%

Global Gov't IL UK CPI (YoY) UK Equities Japan Equities UK Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities UK Equities UK Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities UK Gilts IL Developed Equities UK Gilts Global High Yield Japan Equities

8.3% 3.0% 29.3% 19.6% 5.9% 15.8% 18.3% 12.6% 5.1% 25.2% 11.7% 0.5% 11.2% 12.9%

Developed Equities Global Gov't IL S&P Global Property US Equities Global Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade UK High Yield Developed Equities Developed Equities S&P Global Property UK Equities UK Gilts IL Developed Equities US Equities

7.6% 1.9% 27.5% 18.9% 5.1% 15.8% 11.8% 11.6% 4.8% 25.2% 11.6% -0.3% 11.1% 12.8%

UK Equities Global Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities Developed Equities UK CPI (YoY) EM Equities Global High Yield Asia x Japan Equities Global Gov't Bond Japan Equities US Equities S&P Global Property EM Equities UK Equities

7.0% -3.4% 19.7% 15.8% 4.3% 12.9% 7.3% 11.4% 1.7% 22.2% 10.6% -1.4% 9.5% 12.6%

Global Gov't Bond Japan Equities Developed Equities Global High Yield Global High Yield Global Inv. Grade UK CPI (YoY) Global Gov't IL UK Inv. Grade UK Equities UK High Yield Global Gov't IL UK Equities Developed Equities

6.4% -3.7% 17.3% 15.0% 2.9% 10.9% 2.0% 9.8% 0.5% 19.2% 7.8% -1.5% 8.3% 12.4%

UK Gilts UK Inv. Grade Global Inv. Grade UK Equities US Equities Developed Equities UK Inv. Grade Global Gov't Bond UK Gilts Europe x UK Equities Global High Yield UK High Yield UK Gilts IL UK High Yield

5.2% -9.1% 16.1% 12.6% 1.9% 10.6% 1.8% 8.7% 0.5% 18.7% 6.7% -1.6% 7.8% 10.5%

US Equities US Equities UK Inv. Grade UK Gilts IL GBP LIBID 3 Month US Equities S&P Global Property Global Inv. Grade GBP LIBID 3 Month Global High Yield S&P Global Property UK Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade UK Gilts IL

4.1% -15.1% 15.4% 8.9% 0.8% 10.1% 1.7% 8.0% 0.5% 15.7% 6.0% -2.3% 7.4% 8.9%

Global Inv. Grade Developed Equities US Equities UK Inv. Grade UK Equities UK Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK High Yield UK CPI (YoY) UK Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade Global Inv. Grade Europe x UK Equities Global High Yield

3.8% -19.3% 14.0% 8.8% -2.0% 10.1% 1.1% 5.6% 0.2% 11.9% 5.1% -2.5% 7.2% 7.7%

Global High Yield UK High Yield Global Gov't IL UK Gilts UK High Yield Global Gov't IL GBP LIBID 3 Month EM Equities Global Inv. Grade UK Gilts Global Inv. Grade Developed Equities Japan Equities UK Gilts

2.2% -25.0% 8.9% 7.6% -3.0% 7.4% 0.4% 4.0% 0.1% 10.6% 4.6% -3.1% 6.8% 6.6%

UK CPI (YoY) Europe x UK Equities UK Gilts IL Global Inv. Grade Developed Equities Global Gov't Bond Global Inv. Grade Global High Yield Global Gov't IL UK High Yield UK CPI (YoY) Global High Yield Global Inv. Grade UK Inv. Grade

2.1% -25.9% 6.2% 7.5% -5.0% 4.6% 0.2% 2.7% -0.3% 10.5% 2.6% -3.6% 5.4% 6.6%

UK Inv. Grade Global High Yield UK CPI (YoY) Europe x UK Equities S&P Global Property Japan Equities UK Gilts IL Japan Equities UK Gilts IL Global Gov't IL UK Gilts IL Japan Equities UK Gilts Global Gov't IL

0.5% -27.4% 2.9% 5.2% -6.9% 3.3% 0.0% 2.0% -1.2% 10.3% 2.3% -7.6% 4.8% 4.6%

GBP LIBID 3 Month UK Equities Global Gov't Bond Global Gov't IL Japan Equities UK Gilts Global Gov't Bond UK Equities Global High Yield Global Inv. Grade Global Gov't IL UK Equities Global Gov't IL Global Inv. Grade

0.5% -29.7% 1.2% 5.2% -13.9% 2.8% -0.2% 0.6% -2.1% 5.7% 2.2% -8.9% 4.8% 3.6%

UK High Yield S&P Global Property GBP LIBID 3 Month Global Gov't Bond Europe x UK Equities UK CPI (YoY) UK Gilts UK CPI (YoY) UK Equities Global Gov't Bond UK Gilts Asia x Japan Equities Global Gov't Bond Global Gov't Bond

-0.9% -30.4% 1.0% 3.9% -14.8% 2.6% -4.3% 0.5% -2.2% 3.6% 1.9% -9.1% 3.2% 2.9%

Japan Equities Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts UK CPI (YoY) Asia x Japan Equities UK Gilts IL EM Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Asia x Japan Equities UK CPI (YoY) Global Gov't Bond EM Equities UK CPI (YoY) UK CPI (YoY)

-5.5% -35.2% -1.3% 3.6% -16.9% 0.8% -4.5% 0.4% -3.9% 1.6% 1.1% -9.4% 2.3% 1.2%

S&P Global Property EM Equities Japan Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month EM Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month Global Gov't IL Europe x UK Equities EM Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month GBP LIBID 3 Month Europe x UK Equities GBP LIBID 3 Month GBP LIBID 3 Month

-6.0% -36.5% -4.1% 0.6% -18.0% 0.7% -4.6% -0.6% -10.0% 0.3% 0.2% -10.0% 0.6% 0.1%

Page 9: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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Structured investment process No investment process Vs.

5. A Clear Investment Process Reduces the risk of emotional decisions

Strategic

Allocation

Tactical

Allocation

Fund

Selection

Portfolio Construction

And Risk Management

Fund Monitoring and

Reporting

Source: pinterest.com, Nedgroup Investments.

We work with

clients to set

the appropriate

long-term asset

allocation

framework

We aim to add

value through

short-term

tactical asset

allocation

Portfolios are

constructed

after carefully

considering

potential risks

and rewards

Risk tools

include Style

Research and

Fixed Income

Risk Analysis

Through our

research, we

aim to add

value by

picking the best

funds

All funds must

pass

operational due

diligence,

which is done

independently

of the

investment

team

We monitor

progress daily,

making

changes when

necessary.

Research and

Analysis

Risk Management

and Fund Monitoring

Page 10: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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6. Pragmatic Manager Selection Approach Using active and passive

Source: Nedgroup Investments.

Some markets are harder than others,

..in markets that we believe are difficult for active managers to outperform we hold more exposure in passive / index funds

Alignment of interests

Access

Acts as stewards of capital

Size is a consideration

Separate operational due diligence

If in doubt, don’t choose

1

2 Beating the market is difficult

3 Investment philosophy

Stability & Strength 4 5 6

Good active managers exist and can be found

7 8 9 10

…and process

…of fund manager / team

…to fund manager / team

…especially over short term …therefore judge managers over full market cycle

…of the active manager must be bought into

Page 11: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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7. Risk Monitoring Portfolios are managed within defined volatility bands

• We offer tailored profiles across the risk spectrum to cater to

client-specific objectives and varying levels of risk

tolerance

• Asset class weightings vary depending on their unique

risk/return trade-offs

Risk vs Return by Asset Class

100%

40%

5%

40%

10%

5%

80%

5%

5%

5% 5%

Ex

pe

cte

d R

etu

rn

Expected Portfolio Volatility

60%

5%

20%

10%

5%

Cash

Bonds

Equities

Property

Other

LIBID + 3-5% LIBID + 1-3% LIBID + 2-4% LIBID Return

Objectives*

Low Risk

Low-Medium Risk

Medium-High Risk

High Risk

DM Large-Cap Equities

DM Small-Cap Equities

EM Equities

Govt. Bonds

Inflation-linked Govt. Bonds

Corp. Bonds

High Yield Bonds

EM Bonds

Cash

Real Estate

Commodities

Hedge funds

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24%

Return

(Annualised)

Risk

(Annualised)

Source: mywealthsolutions.com, Bloomberg, MSCI, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, Dow Jones, Hedge Fund Research. Nedgroup Investments. Last data point as of 31st December 2018.

Currency: USD

*In the currency of the relevant share class

Page 12: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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8. Transparency We strive to be open as possible

Source: Nedgroup Investments.

e.g. Underlying exposures distributed monthly

Page 13: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

13

To act for the benefit of clients

9. Stewardship We always put client’s interests first

Source: Nedgroup Investments.

We take our responsibility towards client assets seriously

As a result, we aim to ensure our policies / business practices reflect:

principles of accountability

transparency

integrity

in the following areas:

1 2 3 4 5 6

To act in a professional and ethical manner at all times

To act with independence and objectivity

To act with skill, competence, and diligence

To uphold the rules governing capital markets

To communicate with clients in a timely and accurate manner

Page 14: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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10. Experienced Team A well-resourced team of investment professionals

Experienced investment team

25 tertiary qualifications (BSc, BA, MSc, MBA, CFA, CAIA)

NEDGROUP INVESTMENTS MULTI-MANAGEMENT TEAM

South African Team UK Team

Source: Nedgroup Investments.

Page 15: Top ten key Attributes of our Investment Strategies · Which is disciplined and structured to avoid making decisions based on emotion rather than analysis ... 7 Facebook A 0.8% Diageo

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Regulatory information

Nedgroup Investments MultiFunds Plc (the Fund) is authorised and regulated in Ireland by the Central Bank of Ireland. The Fund is authorised as a UCITS pursuant to the European

Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011 (S.I. No. 352 of 2011) as amended from time-to-time.

This document is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication or use would be

contrary to law or regulation.

The value of shares can fall as well as rise. Investors may not get back the value of their original investment.

The Fund and certain of its sub-funds are recognised in accordance with Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. UK investors should read the Appendix for UK

Investors in conjunction with the Fund's Prospectus which are available from the Investment Manager. www.nedgroupinvestments.com

Singapore investors should read the Appendix for Singapore Investors in conjunction with the Fund's Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) which are available

from the Investment Manager. www.nedgroupinvestments.com

The Fund has been recognised under paragraph 1 of schedule 4 of the Collective Investment Schemes Act 2008 of the Isle of Man. Isle of Man investors are not protected by statutory

compensation arrangements in respect of the Fund.

Nedgroup Investment (IOM) Limited (reg no 57917C), the Investment Manager and Distributor of the Fund, is licensed by the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority.

Nedgroup Investment Advisors (UK) Limited (reg no 2627187) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.