Tomorrow’sRailwayandClimateChangeAdapta7on(T1009)

Presenta7onforTransportDayBreak-outsession:TransportandAdapta7ontoClimateChange:Impacts,Policy,andFinanceSunday6thDecember2015MichaelWoods,JohnDoraRSSB

6December2015

WhatistheTomorrow’sRailwayandClimateChangeAdapta7onProgramme?

ARSSBfundedresearchstudy(refT1009)sponsoredbytheTechnicalStrategyLeadershipGroup.

T1009explorestheneedtoincreasetheresilienceoftheGBrailwayinresponsetoan7cipatedchangesinkeyclimatevariables.

Phase1:Comprehensiveknowledgereviewandknowledgegapanalysis.

Phase2:Improveknowledgeofclimatechangevulnerabili7esanddevelopsupporttoolstoincreaseresilienceoftheGBrailway.

6December2015

Keyques7onstheresearchhasaddressed(Phase1)andisaddressing(Phase2)

§ 1.Projectedclima7cchangeintheUKoverthenext50years.

§ 2.Impactsofclimatechangeandextremeweatherontherailway.

§ 3.Ac7onstakenbyGBrailindustryinresponsetothesepoten7alimpacts.

§ 4.Proposedfutureac7ons,including'quickwins'whichcanbeimplementedoverthenextfewyears.

§ 5.Requirementsforaddi7onaldecisionsupportframeworks,processes,andtools,topermitcost-effec7veac7ontobetaken.

§ Phase1hasansweredthefirstthreeobjec2ves,andaddressedthefourth,whilePhase2isnowfocussingonansweringobjec2vesfourandfiveinmoredetail.

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ResearchPhase1OutputsandFindings

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6December2015

WheretofindPhase1outputs

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www.rssb.co.uk/improving-industry-performance/climate-change-adapta7on

§ Newclimatechangeadapta.onpagehasbeencreatedontheRSSBwebsite–summaryofhighlevelinforma7onandgatewaytofurtherinforma7on.

6December2015

Acompendiumofknowledge…

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www.sparkrail.org/pages/climatechange.aspx

§ Newclimatechangeadapta.onpageonSPARK.

§ ~470individual‘records’aboutclimatechangeimpactsandweatherresiliencerelevanttoGBrailway(~700referencescollatedinPhase1).

§ Phase1finalreport,execu.vesummaryandresearchbrief.

§ CommunicatedtorailindustryviaRSSBregularnewslehers(eg‘TheKnowledge’).

6December2015

Phase1-Recommenda7ons

§ Over120recommenda7onsmadeinPhase1finalreport.

§ Dis7lledandpriori7sedinto10keyareasofrecommenda7onsbymembersoftheSteeringGroupfordissemina7ontoindustry.

§ Shorttermrecommenda7onsconsideredaspoten7al‘QuickWins’.

§ Allshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda7onsarebeingreviewedinPhase2.

§ Phase2willalsohighlightareasofrecommenda7onsnotbeingaddressedwithinthescopeofT1009whichmayformfutureresearchprojects.

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NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda2onsavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu2vesummary

6December2015

QuickWin Ac*onowner

Compileadatabaseofassets,includingbuildings,whicharevulnerabletooneormoreofthefollowing:excessrainfall;drought;fluvialfloodingand/orcoastalflooding.Thiswouldbeequivalenttothecri@calrailtemperature(CRT)registerforstressfreetemperatures(SFT).Assessvulnerabili@esofassetsincludinginterdependenciesand‘knockoneffects’(Highprecipita-on,Lowprecipita-on,Highsealevelsandstormsurges).

MostlyNetworkRailbutofrelevancetowholerailway–thereforeaguidance/goodprac@cedocumentwouldbeafirststeptowardsconsistencywherecommonalityexistsledbyRSSB.Thenaprogrammeofassessmentforindividualdutyholders.OpportunitytomanageasoneprogrammeviaRSSBasrequiredbytheindustry.MustrecognisethatalotofworkinthisareahasbeencarriedoutbyNetworkRailinrecentmonths.

Phase1recommenda7ons:quickwins,short,medium,longterm

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NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda2onsareavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu2vesummary

T1009WaterfrontPresenta0on 12November2015

Phase1shorttermrecommenda0on‘QuickWins’

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QuickWin Ac*onowner

Compileadatabaseofassets,includingbuildings,whicharevulnerabletooneormoreofthefollowing:excessrainfall;drought;fluvialfloodingand/orcoastalflooding.Thiswouldbeequivalenttothecri0calrailtemperature(CRT)registerforstressfreetemperatures(SFT).Assessvulnerabili0esofassetsincludinginterdependenciesand‘knockoneffects’(Highprecipita-on,Lowprecipita-on,Highsealevelsandstormsurges).

MostlyNetworkRailbutofrelevancetowholerailway–thereforeaguidance/goodprac0cedocumentwouldbeafirststeptowardsconsistencywherecommonalityexistsledbyRSSB.Thenaprogrammeofassessmentforindividualdutyholders.OpportunitytomanageasoneprogrammeviaRSSBasrequiredbytheindustry.MustrecognisethatalotofworkinthisareahasbeencarriedoutbyNetworkRailinrecentmonths.

NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda-onsareavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu-vesummary

T1009WaterfrontPresenta0on 12November2015

Phase1mediumtermrecommenda0on

§ Earthworkdebrisdetec0onsystems

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Impactexample:Harburylandslip,January2015

Climate change related risk for GB railway system

Theme of recommendations Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables in brackets)

Time scale for action

System

Changing patterns of precipitation with consequences for soil moisture levels and stability.

Focus on lineside management issues which affect infrastructure and ‘weather and climate resilient’ design and management options with multiple benefits.

Determine which earthworks debris detection systems are most effective (High precipitation, Low precipitation).

Medium term

Infrastructure

Exampleofhowtomanagehazards

T1009WaterfrontPresenta0on 12November2015

Phase1longtermrecommenda0on–example3

§ Adap%vepathwaysapproach

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NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda5onsareavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu5vesummary

Climate change related risk for GB railway system

Theme of recommendations Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables in brackets)

Time scale for action

System

Increased risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events, high sea levels and storm surges with consequences for resilience of infrastructure and assets.

Adaptive pathways and lifecycle cost analysis for reducing vulnerability of infrastructure, assets and operations.

Take an ‘adaptive pathways’ approach, such as that developed by the Thames Estuary 2100 project to the long term management of the GB railway to improve the resilience of infrastructure to flood risk and storm damage (High precipitation, High winds, High sea levels and storm surge).

Long term Infrastructure

Source:TE2100Plan,Nov2012

6December20159

§  Developexis7nginfrastructuredesignandmaintenanceapproaches,especiallyforearthworks.

§  Implementlifecyclecos7ngandadap7vepathwaysapproaches,includingconsidera7onofre-rou7ngkeyroutes.

§  Increaseandintegrategoodqualitydataaboutassets,weathereventsandopera.onstoinformpredic.vemodellingandresponse

§  Enhancetheindustry’sabilitytomodelandpredicttheimpactsofcombinedandsuccessiveweatherevents.

§  Improvecommunica.onsaboutweathereventsandclimatechange,throughouttheindustry.

§  Reviewallrelevantdesignandopera7onalstandardsandguidance(ieISO,BS,Eurocode,NetworkRail,RIS).

SummaryofPhase1recommenda7ons

Heat related non-work days for mitigating track buckle likelihood – 2040s

T1009Phase2–s7llinprogress

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6December2015

Phase2Overview

6December2015

EconomicsofClimateChangeAdapta7on

Task1lookedateconomicappraisal.Tradi7onaltransporteconomicappraisalmethodologiesdonotadequatelyassessspendingdecisionsrelatedtoadapta7onandresilience.

DraFrecommenda.ons Aframeworkmodelforassessingclimatechangeadapta7onstrategiesandop7onswithintherailindustrybaseduponCostBenefitAnalyses. Afutureclimatechangeresilienceappraisalframeworkbasedupontheexis7ngcomprehensiveWebTAGandGreenBookframeworksfortakinginvestmentdecisions,withimprovedtreatmentandconsidera7onforexampleof:discountrate,the7meperiodofanalysis,uncertainty(unquan7fiablerisk),missinginforma7on,budgetconstraints,decision-makingresponsibility. Theeffortemployedonappraisalsshouldbepropor7onatetotheinvestmentwithintheframeworkmodel.

6December2015

LearningfromothercountriesTask2foundthatsimilarcountriesareFrance,Netherlands,Belgium,GermanyandDenmark.Franceappearsasbothamid-21stcenturyandend-21stcenturyweatheranalogue.Factsheetshavebeendraledonmanagementofeffectsofflooding,heatandwinter.

DraFrecommenda.ons Coopera7onwithanaloguecountriestodiscussmeasuresusedtomanagetheeffectsofextremeweathercouldbenefittheGBrailwaysystem.

6December2015

Metricssuppor7ngthemanagementandadapta7onoftherailnetworkTask3foundthatthefewmetricsdirectlyrelatedtohelpingrailwayoperatorstomanageweatherandclimatechange,focusonfloodingandwinterweatherrelatedissues.

DraFrecommenda.ons Developrobust‘journeyavailability’metric.

6December2015

Systemofsystemsperspec7ve•  Task4providedareviewof

systems-basedriskandvulnerabilityoftheGBrailwayandiden7fiedtheassessmenttoolsinuse.

•  ‘Mapped’asystemofsystemsrepresenta7onoftherailwayandsuggestedhowtherailwaycanbegroupedintoanumberofsub-systems.

•  Highlightedtheimportanceoftheinterac7onsandinterdependenciesbetweenthesub-systems.

Strategic

Operational

Local/Specific

Socio-Political

System of Systems Model

Nested Levels

Economics & Finance Performance & Metrics

Emergent Shared Understanding

DraFrecommenda.ons Ensureasystemofsystemsperspec7veinsystems-basedriskandvulnerabilityassessmenttools.

6December2015

Poten7alopportuni7esfromuseofGISThistask-5-examinedtherelevanceandapplica7onofGeographicinforma7onSystems(GIS)toclimatechangeandextremeweatherdecisionmaking.Itreviewedexis7ngGISbasedtoolsforiden7fica7onandassessmentofriskandvulnerabilityforinfrastructureassets.

DraFrecommenda.ons Shorttermbenefitscanberealisedfromtheapplica7onofavailableweathersuscep7bilitymapsfordetermina7onofvulnerablepartsofthenetwork. Suchtoolscanbeu7lisedtogetherwiththesignificantdataheldbyNetworkRail,andfromfailureinves7ga7ons,ofassetvulnerabilitytofacilitatefailurepredic7on.

Railwayshouldbecharacterisedasasystemofsystemsinrela7ontovulnerabilitytoweathereffectsandgeographicalfeatures. Datamustbecompiledandcommunicatedinaconsistentwaytakingintoaccountthethree-dimensionalnatureandinterconnec7vityoftherailway.Aseriesofexemplarshort,mediumandlongtermgoalsfordecisionmakingusingGISbasedvulnerabilityassessmentshasbeencompiledforconsidera7on.

6December2015

Suppor7ngmeasuresforrailwaysystemresilienceThistask-6-hasprovidedanoverviewofrelevantpolicies,standards,proceduresandprac7seswhicharenecessaryforaddressingclimatechangeandweatherimpacts,andfordeliveryofrailwaysystemresilienceinGreatBritain.

DraFrecommenda.onsEnsureprocessforreviewofthepolicies,procedures,andstandardstakesintoaccountthesystemicnatureofclimatechangeeffects,andtheneedforstandardsthatareconsistentwithothertransportmodesandsectors.Introduceacollabora7vecross-modalandcross-sectorialapproach,workingwithrelevantGovernmentdepartmentsandagencies.InvolvetheGBrailwayinmul7-agencyworking,inthefieldsof:•  Collabora7onwithintherailindustryandacrossorganisa7onalboundaries•  Evidencebaseddecisionmaking•  Lessonslearnt•  Publiccommunica7ons.EngagetheGBrailwaywithrelevantmul7-agencyforumstoinfluencethedevelopmentofEuropeanstandardswhereclimatechangeini7a7vesarealreadyinprogress.

6December2015

Impactsandpoten7alresiliencemeasures

Temperature

Precipita7on

WeatherEvents

SeaLevelRise

ExtremeHighRailbuckling

PassengerDiscomfort

ExtremeLowIcebuild-onrollingstockFreezethawatcupngs

RapidChangesLinesideelectronic

equipmentaffec7ngpower,signalling,telecomms

•  Maintaintrackstomoreresistantspecifica7ons•  Cluher-freedesignforundersideofvehicles•  De-icingmeasuresusedpriortoentryintoservice•  Rockremovalac7vityonacyclicbasis&Nepngofrockcupngs

ExtremeHighFlooding

ScourofBridgePiersLandslips

ExtremeWindsCatenaryfailure

TreeFallCoastalFlooding

eg:DawlishBUTDON”TFORGETWALESetc!!

ExtremeDroughtDessica7onofclay

forma7ons

IncreasedHumidityLeafcontamina7onLossofbrakingmuLossoftrackcircuits

LightningInterferencewith

electronicsEMC

•  Improvedrainage•  Improvescourprotec7on•  Vegeta7onmanagement•  Protectvulnerableslopes•  Rebuildembankments•  Ins7tutewarningsystems

•  Vegeta7onmanagement•  AdaptRollingStock•  Catenarymaintenance•  Robustcontrolsystems•  Redundantpowersystems

•  Factorinresiliencemeasuresforrou7nerenewalprogramme•  Designfuturedefencesworkswithsealevelriseinmind

6December2015

Publishedreports

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Phase1summaryreport

Phase1finalreport

Phase1appendicesA-J

Phase2beingfinalised

Commentsandques7onswelcome–orcontactusat

michael.woods@rssb.co.ukorjohndora@johndoraconsul7ng.eu