tom troland suny global center november 12 2015 session 3 final 11-06-2015
TRANSCRIPT
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLDTOWARD A ONE SCREEN WORLDWHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
单屏世界
THOMAS R TROLANDTRT ADVISORY
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
16 NOVEMBER 2015 / SESSION # 4
“TECHNOLOGY ISMIRACULOUS BECAUSEIT ALLOWS US TO DOMORE WITH LESS, RATCHETING UP OURFUNDAMENTALCAPABILITIES TO AHIGHER LEVEL.”
--PETERTHIELPETERTHIEL
FOUNDER OF PAYPAL
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Then: a device and place for each mediummedium…
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Next: every medium –and more– in onedevicedevice.
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Four drivers of media convergence
3. 1.Mobility Urbanization
2. 4.Demographics Connectedness
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Source: Mckinsey, No Ordinary Dispruption, 2015
Four drivers of media convergence--Especially in China!Especially in China!
http://www.mckinsey.com/global_locations/asia/singapore/en/latest_thinking
3. 1.Mobility Urbanization
2. 4.Demographics Connectedness
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Source: Mckinsey, No Ordinary Dispruption, 2015
1. Urbanization. U n on
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
1. Urbanization. U n on
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
2. Demographics. og cs
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
2. Demographics. og cs
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Urban + Educated = AffluentU n uc u n
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
3. Mobility3. o
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
3. Mobility3. o
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
China leads world to “Mobile Mind Shift”“Mobile Mind Shift”
“THIS IS A MOBILE MIND SHIFT, NOT JUST ‘MOBILE FIRST’. ITIS A COMPLETE CHANGE INTHE PSYCHOLOGY OFCONSUMERS: THEEXPECTATION THAT ANYDESIRED INFORMATION ORSERVICE IS AVAILABLE, ON ANYAPPROPRIATE DEVICE, INCONTEXT, ATYOUR MOMENTOF NEED ”OF NEED.”
JOSH BERNOFF, SENIORVICE PRESIDENTFORRESTER RESEARCH
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Mobile: Useful for Everything.http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/top/
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Mobile: UseD Everywhere.
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
4. Connectedness. Conn c n ss
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Smartphone MajorityS on jo
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Many ways to Connect, Share & SocializeSocialize
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Digital Connectednesswww.wearesocial.cn
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
More than 10,000 new businesses registered in China every dayregistered in China every day
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Tech Temple, Beijing 2015
“A NEW MEDIUM IS NEVER AN ADDITION
TO AN OLD ONE, NOR DOES IT LEAVE THE
OLD ONE IN PEACE. IT NEVER CEASES TO
OPPRESS THE OLDER MEDIA UNTIL IT
FINDS NEW SHAPES AND POSITIONS FOR
THEM.”– MARSHALL MCLUHAN, 1964
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Business Models are ChallengedNearly half of content spending will be for digitalNearly half of content spending will be for digital
products by 2017
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
China’s robust media economyCAGR 2015-2019 Forecasted at 10.5%
Total E&M SpendingI Chi b Y
$235.7
$200
$250
tes
In China by Year
$143.1$150
$200
4 Ex
chan
ge R
at
$85.2
$50
$100
Bill
ions
US
/ 20
1
$0
$50$
B
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
* 2015-2019 totals are forecasts.
Changing emphasis in E&M SpendingFaster Growth in Digital / Lower growth in Traditional Media
Forecast Spending on Media in ChinaT t l $235 7 Billi i 2019
$88.4 15.1%14.0%
16.0%
$80 0$90.0
$100.0
Rat
e
Total: $235.7 Billion in 2019Total CAGR 2015-2019: 10.5%
$33 5
13.6%11.4%
6.8%7.6%
6 6%
9.8%8.7% 8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
$40 0$50.0$60.0$70.0$80.0
R 2
015-
2019
–20
14 E
xcha
nge
$33.5$24.1 $20.3
$13.1 $12.2 $11.7 $9.5 $8.6 $6.4 $3.3
6.8%
1 3%
6.1% 6.6%
3.1%
0 0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
$0 0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0
CA
GR
$ B
illio
n U
S –
1.3% 0.0%$0.0
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Source: http://www.pwchk.com/webmedia/doc/635775886983165765_cn_em_outlook_2015_2019.pdf
rapid transformation in Consumers’ Media UseMedia Use
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Consumers’ Media Behavior: Adopt and AdjustAdopt and Adjust
Source: Market RaDaR Analysis Forrester Research 2014http://blogs.forrester.com/xiaofeng wang/14-05-
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
http://blogs.forrester.com/xiaofeng_wang/14 0509-introduce_the_marketing_radar_to_china
Spending Follows AttentionS n ng o ows n on
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
“We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the f t ”future.”
--Marshall McLuhan
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Delighting in the Possible:Thinking and acting on ConvergenceThinking and acting on Convergence
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/managing_in_uncertainty/delighting_in_the_possible
HABITS OF MIND:• ASK DIFFERENT QUESTIONS
• TAKE MULTIPLETAKE MULTIPLE
PERSPECTIVES
• SEE SYSTEMSS S S S
• EXPERIMENT AT THE
PERIPHERY
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Delighting in the Possible:Thinking and acting on ConvergenceThinking and acting on Convergence
ACTIONS:• IDENTIFY PRACTICAL
OPTIONS
• ALIGN KEY STAKEHOLDERS
• DISAGGREGATE ANDS GG G
OPTIMIZE, ONE PIECE AT A
TIME
• DECIDE, PILOT, AND ROLL
OUT
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
DES MOINES IOWA USADES MOINES, IOWA USA
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Commitment support focus…Co n su o ocus…
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
serving life stages…s v ng s g s…
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Centered in BIG Data…C n n G …
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Less reliance on advertising…ss nc on v s ng…
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Strategic Focus on ConvergenceS g c ocus on Conv g nc
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Making Meredith Digitalng g
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Better Homes and Gardenso s n G ns
7.6 MILLIONCIRCULATION
3939 MILLIONADULTADULTREADERS
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
BH&G: Convergence Branding Model &G: Conv g nc n ng o
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Allrecipes: Digital First Modelc s: g s o
15 Million A D l dApp Downloads
March 2013
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Allrecipes: Digital First Modelc s: g s o
15 Million A D l d
500,000Circulation App Downloads
March 2013
C cu at oNovember 2013
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
media Brand for the One Screen Worldmedia Brand for the One Screen World
25 Million A D l d
1,300,000Circulation App Downloads
October 2015
C cu at oJanuary 2016
44 Million Users/ReadersTOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
44 Million Users/Readers
Branding For The One-Screen Worldn ng o On Sc n Wo
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
GLOBAL allrecipesG O c s
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Allrecipes.cnc s.cn
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
Haier’s Relentless Search for new Valuehttp://www.gaofengadv.com/Cn/ / http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00296?gko=8155b
“THE KEY FACTOR OF TRADITIONALSALES WAS LOCATION. IFYOU HADSTORES IN GOOD LOCATIONS IN A CITY, THAT GAVEYOU THE BIGGESTADVANTAGE. DURING THE PC INTERNET ERA, THE KEY FACTOR WASTRAFFIC –WHOEVER HAD THEGREATEST TRAFFIC WAS THE WINNER. AND NOW IN THE MOBILE INTERNETERA, THE KEY FACTOR IS TIME.
“SO MY STORES ARE CHANGING FROMSEEKING GOOD LOCATIONSTOPURSUING THE TIME OF CUSTOMERS.”++ZHANG RUIMIN, CEO, THE HAIERGROUP
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?
THOMAS R TROLAND
TRT ATRT ADVISORY
TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?20 October 2014