today's corporate trends-where is india beginning to steal china's thunder?

7/28/2019 Today's Corporate Trends-Where is India beginning to steal China's Thunder?

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India 2020: What India will Look Like in the FutureTodays Corporate Trends Where is India beginning to steal Chinas Thunder?

France HoudardManaging Director

[email protected] 2011

Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.

GlobalStrategy

GlobalChallenges

Executable Solu t ions
http://www.exolus.com/


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1Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .

Why?

Preface: What Does India Look Like from Space? At Night?

Source: NASA (United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration)


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INTRODUCTION: India Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/Flag_of_India.svg


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3Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: World Bank

2009 GDP*

6,4 trillionsde $ 3,6 trillionsde $

$4.1 tr $3.8 tr $9.1 tr $14.2 tr

US

China India

$14.1 tr

JapanJapan

EU-27

France

UK

Germany

2020 GDP*

$30.0 tr $13.4 tr $28.8 tr $6.8 tr $29.6 tr

US

India

China

Japan

EU-27

France

UK

Germany

The FUTURE (2020): World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in WorldGDP* PPP-adjusted

GDP* PPP-adjusted


5/364Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .

Indias Middle Class: 45 million (2010) 100 million (2025)

Wealth Trend: Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class

Sources : Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007 ; MGI Consumer Demand 2008

27 2012 8 5

6 23 41

2514

4358

31

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household

Urban Household Income( US $ - PPP - Adjusted )

Global >= US$ 22,158

Upper Middle Class >= US$11,079 - 22,158

Lower Middle Class >= US$4,431 11,079

Poor


6/365Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. .

Urbanization Trend: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities

Indias Urban Population: 340 million (2010) 465 million (2020)

Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007

220 290340

465 590

636

750815

847

880

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1991 2001 2008 2020 2030

Indias Urban Population Growth

Rural Population(million)

Urban Population(million)

Urbanization

0.86 billion

1.04 billion

1.2 billion

1.3 billion

1.5 billion


7/366Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: Exolus Research

Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments

Infrastructure Trend: Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing?

Srinagar

Chandigarh

New Delhi

Jaipur Lucknow

Bangalore

Mumbai

Chennai

Hyderabad

Gandhinagar

Guwahati

Kolkata

Bhubaneshwar

JammuPathankot

Ludhiana

Agra

Nagpur

Pune

Gwalior

Vijayawada

Coimbatore

Kochi Madurai

Vishakapatnam

CuttackBaleshwar

AllahabadVaranasi

Kanpur

Silchar Ahmedabad

SuratVadodara

Udaipur Kota

RajkotPorbandar

Golden Quadrilateral

North-South Corridor East-West Corridor


8/367Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: Exolus Research

Indias Strengthening A -Cities

Framework: Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment)

Srinagar

Chandigarh

New Delhi

Jaipur Lucknow

Bangalore

Mumbai

Chennai

Hyderabad

Gandhinagar

Guwahati

Kolkata

Bhubaneshwar

JammuPathankot

Ludhiana

Agra

Nagpur

Pune

Gwalior

Vijayawada

Coimbatore

Kochi Madurai

Vishakapatnam

CuttackBaleshwar

AllahabadVaranasi

Kanpur

Silchar Ahmedabad

SuratVadodara

Udaipur Kota

RajkotPorbandar

A-Cities Highest Population and FDI

Golden QuadrilateralNorth-South Corridor East-West Corridor


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Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities

1. BPO/ITO: India Global Leader in BPO / ITO

Source: NASSCOM

Leading BPO Cities

Next Tier BPO Cities

Chandigarh

Delhi

GurgaonFaridabad

Jaipur

Vadodara Ahmedabad

Mumbai

Pune

Indore

Nagpur Kolkata

Bhubaneswar

Visakhapatnam

Kochi

Trivandrum

TiruchirappalliMadurai


Noida

Lucknow

Mangalore

Coimbatore

Hyderabad

ChennaiBangalore


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IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR

1. BPO/ITO: Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020

India IT-BPO Projected Growth(2010 2020F)

23 23 23 23 2350

5058 65

7388

175

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 future 2020

111 bn

225 bn

73 bn

U S D B i l l i o n

Export

Domestic

Source: NASSCOM

81 bn88 bn

96 bn

100%Increase


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New 2 nd and 3 rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1 st Tier Cities

1. BPO/ITO: and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO

Srinagar

Ludhiana Shimla

Dehradun

Gwalior

Kanpur

Allahabad

PatnaVaranasi

Gangtok

Guwahati

Siliguri

Surat

Nashik

Bhopal

Aurangabad

Ranchi Durgapur

Raipur

Hyderabad

VijayawadaHubli-Dharwad

Mysore

Bangalore

PondicherrySalem

Leading BPO Cities

Next Tier BPO cities

Follower Cities

Aspirant Cities


Chandigarh

Delhi

GurgaonFaridabad

Jaipur

Vadodara Ahmedabad

Mumbai

Pune

Indore

Nagpur Kolkata

Bhubaneswar

Visakhapatnam

Kochi

Trivandrum

TiruchirappalliMadurai

Noida

Lucknow

Mangalore

Coimbatore

Chennai

Goa

Source: NASSCOM


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The Transition: Offshoring now up Value Chain to Core Business Processes

Research & Development Sales / Marketing Production / Manufacturing

4. Resources

COST

R&D Sales

Service

Sourcing

Production /Assembly

Distribution

Engineering IT HR

F&A Procure

2. Knowledge 3. Markets

DRIVINGShareholder Value

Sales

Manufacturing

R&D

Back OfficeBPO/ITO


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The Future: and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3 rd Party Providers

Contract Outsourcing: R&D (CRO/KPO) Sales (CSO) Manufacturing (CMO)

R&D Sales

Service

Sourcing

Production /Assembly

Distribution

Engineering IT HR

F&A Procure

4. Resources

2. Knowledge 3. Markets

DRIVINGShareholder Value

CSO

CMO

CRO/KPO

Back OfficeBPO/ITO

Virtually Integrated Model

CMO


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15Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website

2. Innovation: Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India

Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters

West Bengal

Hyderabad

Kolkata

Andhra Pradesh

ArunachalPradesh

Assam

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

HimachalPradesh

Jammu / Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Meghalaya

Mizoram

Punjab

Rajasthan

Sikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

Bangalore

Pune

Mumbai

Gurgaon

New Delhi

Goa

Manipur

Orissa


HaryanaNew Delhi


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2. Innovation: Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India

Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters

West Bengal

Hyderabad

Kolkata

Andhra Pradesh

ArunachalPradesh

Assam

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

Haryana

HimachalPradesh

Jammu / Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Meghalaya

Mizoram

Punjab

Rajasthan

Sikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

New Delhi

Bangalore

Pune

Noida



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Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters

2. Innovation: Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India

West BengalKolkata

Andhra Pradesh

ArunachalPradesh

Assam

Bihar

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

HimachalPradesh

Jammu / Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Meghalaya

Mizoram

Punjab

Rajasthan

Sikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

Bangalore

Pune

Mumbai

Gurgaon

Vadodara

Hyderabad


HaryanaNew Delhi


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3. Market/Revenues: Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?

Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply

Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

RussiaBrazilChina

India

Car Penetration in BRIC(units per 1,000 people) Car Penetration in India(units per 1,000 people)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


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USD28 billion Market by 2015 9 th in World

Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking(USD billion)

Sources: IMS; GSK, Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus

3. Market: India Projected to be Worlds 9 th Largest Pharma Market by 2015

2000USA 150

Japan 58

Germany 17France 17

UK 11

Italy 11

China 6.8

Brazil 6.7

Canada 6.3

Spain 6.2

2005USA 262

Japan 65

Germany 24France 21

UK 16

Italy 15

China 13

Brazil 10

Canada 10

Spain 9.8

2010USA 441

Japan 75

Germany 48France 39

China 34

UK 32

Italy 28

Brazil 24

Canada 22

Spain 21

2015F Top 9USA 524

China 103

Japan 85Germany 55

Brazil 47

France 44

UK 36

Italy 31

Russia 30

India 28


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3. Market: High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis

Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR

Source: EIU; Business Monitor International

U S D B i l l i o n

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

CAGR = 8.7%

Retail Sales(2003 2015F)


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India Per Capita GDP(USD, PPP-Adjusted)

Manipur Mizoram

Andhra Pradesh

AssamBihar

Chhattisgarh

Goa

Gujarat

Haryana

HimachalPradesh

Jammu/Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Meghalaya

Orissa

Punjab

RajasthanSikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

West Bengal

New Delhi

Arunachal Pradesh

Nagaland

3. Market: Significant Income Stratification Trends across India

Wealth Bands Emerging across Country

Per Capita GDP

(USD, PPP-Adjusted)> 5,600

4,200 5,600

2,800 4,200

1,400 2,800

0 1,400

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research


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24Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved. . Source: World Bank Database

FDI has Spiked in India Sustained through Global Economic Crisis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows(1990 2010)

U S D B i l l i o n

4. Production: India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence


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4. Production: Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India

Automotive Production Clusters

Srinagar

Chandigarh

New Delhi

Jaipur Lucknow

Bangalore

Mumbai

Chennai

Hyderabad

Gandhinagar

Guwahati

Kolkata

Bhubaneshwar

JammuPathankot

Ludhiana

Agra

Nagpur

Pune

Gwalior

Vijayawada

Coimbatore

Kochi Madurai

Vishakapatnam

CuttackBaleshwar

AllahabadVaranasi

Kanpur

Silchar Ahmedabad

SuratVadodara

Udaipur Kota

RajkotPorbandar

Mangalore

Cities with in cluster : Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur

Cities with in cluster : Baroda,Halo l, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik ,A u r an g ab ad

Cities with in cluster : Kolkata

Cities with in cluster : New Delh i, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad ,Ludh iana, Har idwar


Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites


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4. Production: Big Pharma Production Deploying to India

Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters


Srinagar

Chandigarh

New Delhi

Jaipur Lucknow

Bangalore

Mumbai

Chennai

Hyderabad

Gandhinagar

Guwahati

Kolkata

Bhubaneshwar

JammuPathankot

Ludhiana

Agra

Nagpur

Pune

Gwalior

Vijayawada

Coimbatore

Kochi Madurai

Vishakapatnam

CuttackBaleshwar

AllahabadVaranasi

Kanpur

Silchar Ahmedabad

SuratVadodara

Udaipur Kota

RajkotPorbandar

Mangalore


Cities with in cluster : Bangalore, Chennai

Cities with in cluster : Goa, Mumbai,daman, Nasik , Thane, Aurangabad

Cities with in cluster : Baroda, Ankleshwar

A h med ab ad ,

Cities with in cluster : Manesar, Jammu, Baddi,Pantnagar


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4. Production: Technology Production Deploying to India

Technology Hardware Production Clusters


Srinagar

Chandigarh

New Delhi

Jaipur Lucknow

Bangalore

Mumbai

Chennai

Hyderabad

Gandhinagar

Guwahati

Kolkata

Bhubaneshwar

JammuPathankot

Ludhiana

Agra

Nagpur

Pune

Gwalior

Vijayawada

Coimbatore

Kochi Madurai

Vishakapatnam

CuttackBaleshwar

AllahabadVaranasi

Kanpur

Silchar Ahmedabad

SuratVadodara

Udaipur Kota

RajkotPorbandar

Mangalore


Cities with in cluster : Bangalore,Chennai

Cities with in cluster : K o lk a ta

Cities with in cluster : Baddi,Mansear

Cities with in cluster : Pune,Hyderabad

F Wh P O i l M k /R /I i E l ?


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Future: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes?

Intersection of Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities

Per Capita GDP(USD, PPP-Adjusted)

> 5,6004,200 5,600

2,800 4,200

1,400 2,800

0 1,400

Per Capita GDP(USD, PPP-Adjusted)

> 5,600

4,200 5,600

2,800 4,200

1,400 2,800

0 1,400

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research

Manipur

Mizoram

Nagaland

Arunachal Pradesh

Andhra Pradesh

AssamBihar

Chhattisgarh

Goa

Gujarat

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu / Kashmir

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Meghalaya

Orissa

Punjab

RajasthanSikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

West Bengal

New Delhi


GurgaonNoida

Innovation Hub

Production Cluster


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Indias Economic Health

S i E ti S l t I di Att ti D ti ti


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Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination

India Top-3 Investment Destination in World

Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

C h i n a

U n

i t e d S t a t e s

I n d i a

B r a z

i l

R u s s

i a

U . K .

G e r m a n y

A u s

t r a

l i a

I n d o n e s

i a

C a n a

d a

V i e t n a m

M e x i c o

P o

l a n

d

F r a n c e

Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment

(2009 2011)%

P e r c e n

t o

f R e s p o n s e s

India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves Healthy Banking System


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India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves, Healthy Banking System

Worlds 7 th Largest Forex Reserves Low Non - Performance Loan Healthy CAGR

India Holds The Worlds 7th Largest Foreign Exchange Reserves: USD 316 billion

In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38

billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.

The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.

Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans

Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.

Robust Growth in Indias Banking System

Commercial bank deposits in India increased at CARG 18.5% from 2001 to 2009.

Commercial bank credit in India grew at CARG at 23% from 2001 to 2009

Source: RBI


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For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries

Please Refer to the Following Research Reports

Found on Slideshare @http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries

http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future

http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future

Download Reports @www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html

China 2020 Brazil 2020 Russia 2020
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Global Expansion Strategy & Cross-Border Investment Execution

(Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures, Outsourcing)

About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consulting and transaction advisory firm. We work withmanagement teams in the development of their global expansion strategies, across the range of investmentformats: Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures and Outsourcing. As well, we deploy against global strategies byproviding program management across all phases of cross-border investment projects, from candidate

searches and evaluation, through investment structuring and negotiations.

The founders of Exolus have spent the past two decades in the global service space and have directexperience operating in nearly all of the major investment destinations in the world (40+ countries). The teamhas served clients of all sizes, both public and private, on projects that ranged in investment size from USD10million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served clients across all of the following industry segments: LifeSciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector.

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