TOCSIN: Work package 2

B-U Techno-economic Modeling for China and India in the Global Context

Richard Loulou

Maryse Labriet

Amit Kanudia

KANLO

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 2

Participants

• Coordinator: KANLO

• Participants:– UCAMB, IIMVA, TU, HKBU (?)

Documentation on TIMES

• http://etsap.org/documentation.asp• Two-part article containing a summary description of

TIMES and TIAM, available on TOCSIN web site

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 3

Tasks

• Task 2.1: Reference Energy System for China, India, and all other World Regions– Leader: IIMVA (replaced by KANLO); time span: mth1

• Task 2.2: TIMES model for China (includes training mm 1-6)– Leader: TU ; time span: mm 2-16

• Task 2.3: TIMES model for India (includes training mm 1-6)– Leader: IIMVA ; time span: mm 2-16

• Task 2.4: Model energy trades and test World model– Leader: KANLO; time span: mm 6-18

• Task 2.5: Construct interfaces for model and for linkages– Leader: KANLO; time span: mm 1-12

• Task 2.6: Simulations for Policy Analysis– Leader: KANLO ; time span: mm 20-30

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 4

Two key comments

1. Task 2.1 : RES : as agreed earlier, the RES for all regions must be completely uniformized, and compatible with the RES of the existing TIAM model developed by KANLO for ETSAP since 2002, and actively maintained since. (KANLO should lead this task).

2. Tasks 2.2 and 2.3: India and China Models: • will be guided by RES established in task 2.1. • Starting points: the databases already developed in

TIAM. • Leaders of tasks 2.2 and 2.3 will use VEDA interfaces

to review, improve, and refine existing TIAM databases for China and India.

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 5

Common RES

• The following qualitative elements constitute the RES:– List of demands for energy services– List of energy forms (primary, final)– List of emissions

• The following qualitative and quantitative elements are entirely flexible:– Demand projections– Availability of resources of each type– List of technologies in each sector– Technoeconomic characterization of each technology

However: any differences in technological data between regions should be carefully justified, in order to avoid spurious trade effects induced by such discrepancies.

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 6

Sketch of RES in TIAM

Carbon capture

Carbon sequestration

CO2 Terrestrialsequestration

Landfills ManureBio burning,

rice, enteric fermWastewater

Non-energy sectors (CH4)

CH4 options

CH4 options CH4 options

N2O options

Landfills ManureBio burning,

rice, enteric fermWastewater

Non-energy sectors (CH4)

CH4 options

CH4 options CH4 options

N2O options

BiomassPotential

RenewablePotential

WIN SOLGEO TDLHYD

Transformation(refinery,

gas liquef. etc.)OIL***GAS***COA***

Electricity Fuels

ELC***

Power plants

Cogeneration

Heat

BIO***

Nuclear NUC

End Use Fuels

TransportTech.

AgricultureTech.

CommercialTech.

ResidentialTech.

IndustrialServiceCompo-

sition

I***

I** (6) A** (1) C** (8) R** (11) T** (15)

AGR*** COM*** RES*** TRA***IND***

UpstreamFuels

HET

Auto ProductionINDELC

CogenerationINDELCIS**

Hydrogen production and distribution

SYNHYD

BIO***

ELC

BIO***

ELC

HET

ELC

Trade

TradeExtraction

IndustrialTech.

Fossil Fuel Reserves

(oil, coal, gas)

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 7

TIAM: 15 regions

AfricaAustralia-New ZealandCanadaCentral and South AmericaChina

Middle-EastOther Developing AsiaSouth KoreaUnited StatesWestern Europe

Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union IndiaJapanMexico

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 8

Schematics of TIAM Climate Module

15 regionTIAM Model

Energysystem

+Non-energy

sectors

GHG EMI

CO2-eq

CONCATM

RADIATIVEFORCING

TSURFACE

CO2

CH4

N2O

etc.CONC

OCEAN UP

CONCOCEAN LO

TDEEP

Cs

σ1

σ1

Exogenous forcing

Tropospheric O3,HFC, SF6

Climate module TIMES Integrated Assessment Model

Reporting & setting targets (concentration, forcing or temperature)

Uncertain parameters

Linearized

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 9

TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (1)Transportation segments (15)

Autos TRT Billion vehicle-km/year

Buses TRB Billion vehicle-km/year

Light trucks TRL Billion vehicle-km/year

Commercial trucks TRC Billion vehicle-km/year

Medium trucks TRM Billion vehicle-km/year

Heavy trucks TRH Billion vehicle-km/year

Two wheelers TRW Billion vehicle-km/year

Three wheelers TRE Billion vehicle-km/year

International aviation TAI PJ/year

Domestic aviation TAD PJ/year

Freight rail transportation TTF PJ/year

Passengers rail transportation TTP PJ/year

Internal navigation TWD PJ/year

International navigation (bunkers) TWI PJ/year

Non-energy uses in transport NEU PJ/year

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 10

TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (2)

Residential segments* (11)

Space heating RH1, RH2, RH3, RH4 PJ/year

Space cooling RC1, RC2, RC3, RC4 PJ/year

Hot water heating RWH PJ/year

Lighting RL1, RL2, RL3, RL4 PJ/year

Cooking RK1, RK2, RK3, RK4 PJ/year

Refrigerators and freezers RRF PJ/year

Cloth washers RCW PJ/year

Cloth dryers RCD PJ/year

Dish washers RDW PJ/year

Miscellaneous electric energy REA PJ/year

Other energy uses ROT PJ/year

* Possible disaggregated demands up to 4 subregions for space conditioning, lighting, and cooking services, in order to take into account geographical variations

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 11

TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (3)

Commercial segments* (8)

Space heating CH1, CH2, CH3, CH4 PJ/year

Space cooling CC1, CC2, CC3. CC4 PJ/year

Hot water heating CHW PJ/year

Lighting CLA PJ/year

Cooking CCK PJ/year

Refrigerators and freezers CRF PJ/year

Electric equipments COE PJ/year

Other energy uses COT PJ/year

Agriculture segment (1)

Agriculture AGR

* Possibly disaggregated demands up to 4 subregions for space conditioning, lighting, and cooking services, in order to take into account geographical variations

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 12

TIAM RES: Demands for Energy Services (4)

Industrial segments** (6)

Iron and steel IIS Millions tonnes

Non ferrous metals INF Millions tonnes

Chemicals ICH PJ

Pulp and paper ILP Millions tonnes

Non metal minerals INM PJ

Other industries IOI PJ

Other non specified energy consumption

ONO PJ/year

** Each energy service is made up of a fixed or variable “recipe” (mix) of more detailed services: steam (boiler), process heat, machine drive, electrolytic service, other, and feedstock.

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 13

TIAM RES: Energy forms

TO BE PROVIDED

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 14

TIAM RES: GHG Emissions

• CO2 from energy and from industrial processes• CH4 from energy and from agriculture• N2O from energy and from industrial processes

However:

• No abatement options for CH4 from enteric fermentation or from rice and other cultures (about 55% of total CH4 emitted)

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 15

TIAM RES: GHG Emissions and mitigation options

EMISSIONS• CO2 from energy and from industrial processes• Non-CO2 (CH4 and N2O) and non-energy emissions (EMF 21-

22): agriculture, manure, landfills, adipic & nitric acid industry, other industrial processes

Mitigation options available in TIAM– Energy and technology substitution– Specific CH4 and N2O options– Biological absorption of CO2– Capture (electricity and hydrogen) and sequestration of CO2– Demand reduction– No abatement options for CH4 from agriculture (rice), bio

burning, and enteric fermentation (up to 60% of total CH4 emitted)

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 16

RES in TIAM: Trade

• Endogenous trade: coal, crude oil, 4 refined petroleum products, gas, liquefied gas, CO2 (or GHG) permits price and amount of traded energy are endogenous the impact on trade of environmental policies is taken into account may be modified if necessary for TOCSIN

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 17

Interactions within WP2

• KANLO → IIMVA and TU:

– Training in using the VEDA interface – Familiarizing with TIAM database

• TU ↔ IIMVA ↔ KANLO: collaborate on technology data, on energy resources, etc.

• IIMVA , TU → KANLO: provide new improved technology and resource data (using Excel templates)

• All teams: collaborate on interpreting results from model

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 18

Interactions with other WP’s

• With WP1: implementation of policy instruments

• With WP4: Co-design linkage with GEMINI-E3– Preliminary mechanism was devised late 2006 (see next

slide)

• With WP4: Participate in linkage of the TIMES/GEMINI-E3 ensemble with WITCH

• With WP5: participate in analysis of overall results and decide possible feedbacks to TIMES.

• With WP6: participate in dissemination activities

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 19

Preliminary design of TIMES/GEMINI-E3 linkage

GEMINI-E3 TIMES

DRIVERS

DM=DRELAS

DEMANDS

•ENERGY PRICES•TECHNOLOGY MIX•INVESTMENTS

NOTE: Iterations stop when two successive demand vectors are identical

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 20

Milestones & Deliverables

• MS1: Data collection for China and India (mm 1-16), including training in VEDA interface (mm 1-6)

• MS2 and D2.1: China and India Models (Month 16)

• MS3 and D2.2: World Model (Month 18) Should be earlier

• MS4: Runs for policy analysis (Months 18-28)

• MS5: Contribution to final report (Months 24-30)

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 21

Appendices

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 22

List of countries in multi-country regions

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CO2 sequestration

Capture

Power plants Hydrogen plantsIndustry not incl. (iron and steel,cement, ammonia)

Geological, ocean & advanced storage World CUM=4157 GtC

From 4 to 12$/tC

Depleted oil/gas fieldsCoal bedsSaline aquifers (cheapest)Deep ocean+ Mineralization (expensive)

Terrestrial sinksWorld CUM= 98 GtC From 5 to 800$/tC

Forestry, soils

CO2

TransportationFrom 3 to 55$/tC

RemarksSources of data: IEA-ETP, EMF 22 (EPA), literature, IPCC, Of course, many uncertainties (reservoirs and biological processes), risk of leakage, permanence

(Robustmitigation option)

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 24

CH4 options (1)

ACH4MAN01 Farm Scale Digesters-A (cool climate)ACH4MAN02 Farm Scale Digesters-A (warm climate)ACH4MAN03 Farm Scale Digesters-B (cool climate)ACH4MAN04 Farm Scale Digesters-B (warm climate)Not modeled Centralized Digesters (cool climate)

RCH4WLF01 Anaerobic digestion 1 (AD1)RCH4WLF02 Anaerobic digestion 2 (AD2)RCH4WLF03 Composting (C1)RCH4WLF04 Mechanical Biological TreatmentRCH4WLF05 Heat ProductionRCH4WLF06 Increased OxidationRCH4WLF07 Direct Gas Use (profitable at base price)RCH4WLF08 Electricity GenerationRCH4WLF09 Direct Gas Use (profitable above base price) RCH4WLF10 FlaringRCH4WLF11 Composting (C2)

UNCH4OIL01 Flaring instead of Venting (Offshore)UNCH4OIL02 Flaring instead of Venting (Onshore)UNCH4OIL03 Associated Gas (vented) Mix with Other OptionsUNCH4OIL04 Associated Gas (flared) Mix with Other Options

+ Same options for OPEC

UNCH4COA01 Degasification and Pipeline InjectionUNCH4COA02 Enhanced Degasification, Gas Enrichment, and Pipeline InjectionUNCH4COA03 Catalytic Oxidation (US)UNCH4COA04 FlaringUNCH4COA05 Degasification and Power Production – AUNCH4COA06 Degasification and Power Production – B UNCH4COA07 Degasification and Power Production – C UNCH4COA08 Catalytic Oxidation (EU)

+ Same options for OPEC

Manure

Landfill

Primary oil

Coal mining

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 25

CH4 options (2)

UNCH4GAS01 P&T - Use gas turbines instead of reciprocating enginesUNCH4GAS02 Prod-D I&M (Pipeline Leaks)UNCH4GAS03 Installation of Flash Tank Separators (Production)UNCH4GAS04 Replace high-bleed pneumatic devices with compressed air systems (Production)UNCH4GAS05 Replace high-bleed pneumatic devices with low-bleed pneumatic devices (Production)UNCH4GAS06 Dry Seals on Centrifugal Compressors (P&T)UNCH4GAS07 Catalytic Converter (P&T)UNCH4GAS08 Portable Evacuation Compressor for Pipeline Venting (P&T)UNCH4GAS09 Replace High-bleed pneumatic devices with compressed air systems (P&T)UNCH4GAS10 Replace high-bleed pneumatic devices with low-bleed pneumatic devices (P&T)UNCH4GAS11 D-D I&M (Distribution)UNCH4GAS12 D-D I&M (Enhanced: Distribution)UNCH4GAS13 Electronic Monitoring at Large Surface Facilities (D)UNCH4GAS14 Replacement of Cast Iron/Unprotected Steel Pipeline (D)

+ Same options for OPECNot modeled P&T - Compressors-Altering Start-Up Procedure during Maintenance

Prod-D I&M (Chemical Inspection Pumps)Prod-D I&M (Enhanced)Prod-D I&M (Offshore)Prod-D I&M (Onshore)Installation of Electric Starters on Compressors (Production)Installing Plunger Lift Systems In Gas WellsPortable Evacuation Compressor for Pipeline Venting (Production)Reducing the Glycol Circulation Rates in Dehydrators (Production)Surge Vessels for Station/Well Venting (Production)Fuel Gas Retrofit for Blowdown ValveReducing the Glycol Circulation Rates in Dehydrators (P&T)P&T-D I&M (Compressor Stations)P&T-D I&M (Compressor Stations: Enhanced)P&T-D I&M (Enhanced: Storage Wells)P&T-D I&M (Pipeline: Transmission)P&T-D I&M (Wells: Storage)Installation of Flash Tank Separators (P&T)Portable Evacuation Compressor for Pipeline Venting (P&T)Static-Pacs on reciprocating compressors (P&T)Surge Vessels for Station/Well Venting (P&T)

Gas production, transmission and distribution

TOCSIN WP2. Kickoff meeting Lausanne jan 27 2007 26

N2O options

Adipic AcidICH4ADI01 Thermal DestructionNitric AcidICH4NIT01 Grand Paroisse - High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT02 BASF - High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT03 Norsk Hydro - High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT04 HITK – High Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT05 Krupp Uhde - Low Temperature Catalytic Reduction MethodICH4NIT06 ECN - Low temperature selective catalytic reduction with propane additionICH4NIT07 Non-Selective Catalytic Reduction (NSCR)