tobias gerken geoengineering
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE CHANGE (IN A NUTSHELL)
Global Energy Budget
Greenhouse Effect
After: Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997
The Carbon Cycle
Sarmiento & Gruber, 2002
Global Temperatures (I)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Mann et al., 1999 “The Hockey Stick”
Global Temperatures (II)
Columbia University
Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Global temperatures are rising.
• The dominating mechanism is enhanced green house effect.
• What are the consequences? • What should we do about it?
Fact
Fact
Research
Debate
Whose fault is it?
CO2 Emissions by Country (2011)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
Total GHG Emissions by Country (2011)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
CO2 Emissions per person (2011)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
Historical Emissions (1850-2007)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Whose fault is it?
Historical Emissions per person (1850-2007)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Dealing with climate change
• Do Nothing
• Adapt
• Mitigate (Prevent)
• (Geo- engineering)
Xkcd.com
GEOENGINEERING
We are a force of ‘nature’ (?!)
Paul Crutzen: “The Anthropocene”
Rockström, et al. (2009): Planetary Boundaries […] Ecology and Society 14: p 33-
Geoengineering methods
Solar Radiation Management
After: Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997
CO2 removal
Geoengineering methods
• Your turn (In groups):
1. How does the method work?
2. What are the advantages?
3. What are the disadvantages/ dangers?
4. How will it affect society?
5. Would you recommend it?
Write down the answers to turn in.
You will present your answers (one minute presentation)
Higgins, 2014
Key issues to think about
• Economics: How much will it cost?
• Geopolitics: How do we regulate it?
• Ecosystems: How will nature react?
• Ethics: Should we do it?
• Risks: What can go wrong?
• Science: What do we know?
Carbon Capture and Storage www.fastcompany.com
Economics
• The “Stern Report” (2007): Climate change mitigation will cost $ 1 trillion per year (1-2% of world GDP)
$ 100 per ton of carbon
• We have little knowledge what geoengineering will cost
Cloud brightening. Credit: McNeill
Geopolitics
• Geoengineering by definition is global!
• There will/ might be winners and losers?
• Who will pay?
• Who decides what to do?
• Do we need a global climate “police”?
Precipitation change due to sulphate aerosol geoengineering, Rasch et al 2008
Ethics/ Environment
• How much do we need to know before we can do geoengineering?
• Is it morally wrong?
• Are some options better than others?
• Ecosystems will be disrupted.
• Do we care?
An algal bloom, wikimedia commons
Risks
• What happens if technologies fail? Uncertainty
• Unintended consequences …
• Get out of jail free card/ magic bullet?
• We cannot do this forever bridge technology
• Geopolitical consequences: Less precipitation in China, USA, Russia …
Credit: loadtr.com
How should we make decisions?
The Royal Society Report: 1. Legality 2. Effectiveness 3. Timeliness 4. Environmental, social and economic impacts 5. Costs 6. Funding 7. Public Acceptability this is a biggie 8. Reversibility
A first evaluation
The Royal Society, 2009
Science
• Royal Society Report, 2009 • The American Meteorological Society recommends: 1. Enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential
for geoengineering the climate system, including research on intended and unintended environmental responses.
2. Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social implications of geoengineering that integrates international, interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectives and includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather and climate.
3. Development and analysis of policy options to promote transparency and international cooperation in exploring geoengineering options along with restrictions on reckless efforts to manipulate the climate system.