title card a look at environments associated with nighttime supercell tornadoes in the central...
TRANSCRIPT
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Title card
A Look at Environments Associated with Nighttime Supercell Tornadoes in the
Central Plains
Meteorologist
Jon DaviesPrivate
© Dick McGowan & Darin Brunin
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ProcessesBasic parameters that suggest potential for strong tornadic supercell storms:
CAPE – buoyancy/instability for thunderstorm updrafts
SRH (storm-relative helicity) – change in wind direction and increase in wind speed not far above ground as a source of “spin” or rotation in low-levels
Deep layer shear – increasing winds with height through a deep layer to organize and strengthen updrafts
CAPE in low-levels near the ground (0-3 km CAPE) and low cloud bases (LCL heights) for storms that are strongly surface-based without excessive cold outflow
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If air bubbles nearground don’t have to be lifted very far tobecome buoyant and rise on their own, developing low-level circulations can stretch and spin faster
Low-levelCAPE and astronglysurface-basedenvironmentprobably help with stretching at the ground.
stretchingat ground
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If air bubbles nearground are too cool,it’s like the updrafthas to lift bricksinstead of ping-pong balls near the ground
Cool, stableair in low-levelstends to reduce stretching atthe ground,though theremay be CAPEfurther above.
stretching aloft
Layer of cool,
stable air
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Stats
noon 6 pm mid mid 6 am noon 6 pm mid mid 6 am
North Dakota tornadoes 1950-1989 Mississippi tornadoes 1950-1989
Tornadoes by time of day (from Grazulis)
100
80
60
40
20
75
50
25
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MLCAPE 2050 J/kg0-1k SRH 143 m /s 0-1k EHI 1.80-6k shear 58 ktsMLLCL 1200 mMLCIN –55 J/kg
2 2
weak inversion
RUC analysis
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MLCAPE 2165 J/kg0-1k SRH 357 m /s 0-1k EHI 4.80-6k shear 55 ktsMLLCL 500 mMLCIN –150 J/kg
2 2
strong inversiononly 2 hours later!
Tornado warned supercell near Dodge City after dark,
no tornadoes
surface cooling
RUC analysis
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MLCAPE 960 J/kg0-1k SRH 370 m /s 0-1k EHI 2.20-6k shear 52 ktsMLLCL 700 mMLCIN –15 J/kg
2 2
little or no inversion
Nighttime killer tornado at Evansville IN
22 dead
middle of the night!
RUC analysis
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Key characteristics – plains vs. eastern U.S.
A key difference between environments in the Great Plains and areas farther east (Gulf Coast-Ohio Valley) that impactsthe occurrence of nighttime tornadoes:
An elevated mixed layer from the dry desert southwest is often present in the plains. Cooling at nightfall beneath this layer can rapidly change a strongly surface-based environment to one that is more elevated and not reallysurface-based, reducing the chance of nighttime tornadoes.
In the eastern U. S., the absence of this elevated mixed layer when strong low-level moist advection is takingplace often makes for a better chance of tornadoes atnight.
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A typical nighttime evolution of parameters in the plains…
Typical nighttime evolution of parameters in the plains…
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SRH0-1 km SRH
NAM/WRF model
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0-1 km SRH
Low-level shear increases with nocturnalbacking of winds andthe nocturnal increase inthe low-level jet
NAM/WRF model
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0-1 km SRH
Low-level shear increases with nocturnalbacking of winds andthe nocturnal increase inthe low-level jet
NAM/WRF model
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EHI0-1 km EHI
NAM/WRF model
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0-1 km EHI
The resulting rise in SRH increases nighttime CAPE-shearcombinations
NAM/WRF model
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0-1 km EHI
The resulting rise in SRH increases nighttime CAPE-shearcombinations
NAM/WRF model
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Low-level CAPE0-3 km CAPE
NAM/WRF model
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0-3 km CAPE
BUT…nocturnal cooling decreases low-level CAPE, causing nighttime environmentsto become increasingly“elevated”
NAM/WRF model
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0-3 km CAPE
BUT…nocturnal cooling decreases low-level CAPE, causing nighttime environmentsto become increasingly“elevated”
NAM/WRF model
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Characteristics to watch for…
Nighttime situations to watch for in the Central Plains are those where the elevated mixed layer and accompanying inversionare not particularly strong, and where strong warm-moist advection is taking place to reduce the impact of nighttime cooling.
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Model forecast characteristics that can help with assessing nighttime environments more conducive to tornadoes after dark in the Central Plains:
• Strong CAPE-shear combinations at night
• The presence of significant low-level CAPE(CAPE below 3 km) at night, suggestingstrong warm-moist advection and a moresurface-based environment
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Some case studies…
Case studies…
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28 Feb 2007 KS-MO tornadic supercell
28 February 2007
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Tornadic supercelleast-central Kansas 7:30-8:00 p.m. CST(in late February!)
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© Andy Fischer
© courtesy KMBC-TV
EF-4 tornado after dark in
Linn County, KS2/28/07
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Tornadoes continuedinto Missouri
after 10 p.m. CST
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0245 UTC
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MLCAPE 870 J/kg0-1k SRH 460 m /s 0-1k EHI 2.50-6k shear 56 ktsMLLCL 930 mMLCIN –55 J/kg
2 2
weak inversion
RUC analysis
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MLCAPE 620 J/kg0-1k SRH 280 m /s 0-1k EHI 1.10-6k shear 53 ktsMLLCL 1050 mMLCIN –30 J/kg
2 2
little or no inversion
WRF 3 hr forecast for CNU valid 03 UTC
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17 April 2004 N Iowa nontornadic supercells
17 April 2004
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Poor low-level CAPEindicated
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Strong supercellsafter dark in
northern Iowa
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Isolated wind damage,but no tornadoes
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0245 UTC
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MLCAPE 1030 J/kg0-1k SRH 480 m /s 0-1k EHI 3.10-6k shear 60 ktsMLLCL 970 mMLCIN –210 J/kg
2 2
strong inversion
RUC analysis
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4 May 2007 Greensburg tornado
4 May 2007Greensburg event
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0145 UTC
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© Dick McGowan & Darin Brunin
© Courtesy Wichita Eagle
EF-5 tornado strikesGreensburg KS
before 10 p.m. CDT5/4/07
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Tornadoes continuedin centralKansas
well after midnight!
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MLCAPE 1600 J/kg0-1k SRH 205 m /s 0-1k EHI 2.00-6k shear 46 ktsMLLCL 1640 mMLCIN –190 J/kg
2 2
strong inversion
RUC analysis
Erroneous moisture! (too dry in low-levels)
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MLCAPE 3800 J/kg0-1k SRH 240 m /s 0-1k EHI 5.60-6k shear 47 ktsMLLCL 710 mMLCIN –10 J/kg
2 2
weak inversion
WRF 3 hr forecast for PTT valid 03 UTC
Much better depictionof low-level moisture!
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MLCAPE 3800 J/kg0-1k SRH 240 m /s 0-1k EHI 5.60-6k shear 47 ktsMLLCL 710 mMLCIN –10 J/kg
2 2
WRF 3 hr forecast for PTT valid 03 UTC
Much better depictionof low-level moisture!
hodograph
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Greensburg KS(EF-5)
Moore OK (F5)
fromJohns & Davies
1993
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Quick review of the cases we just looked at…
Review
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28 Feb 2007
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28 Feb 2007
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28 Feb 2007significant tornadoes
well after dark(significant low-level CAPE)
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17 April 2004
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17 April 2004
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no tornadoesafter dark
(no low-level CAPE –elevated storms)
17 April 2004
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4 May 2007
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4 May 2007
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4 May 2007strong-violent tornadoes
well into the night(plentiful low-level CAPE)
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SummaryRegarding potential for strong or violent tornadoes after dark, on forecast models such as the WRF, watch for:
• Strong CAPE-shear combinations after dark
• Significant low-level CAPE continuing after dark
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RUC caveats Beware the RUC! It is often too dry in low-levels with strong moisture advection situations such as:
• Retreating (westward moving) drylines
• Advancing warm fronts
The WRF seems to handle these situations better.
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Close© Jon Davies
My site (Greensburg tornado case study):
http://members.cox.net/jdavies1
Earl Barker’s site: www.wxcaster.com
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© Jon Davies
My site (Greensburg tornado case study):
http://members.cox.net/jdavies1
Earl Barker’s site: www.wxcaster.com
I’ve moved!
Jon Davies9101 Alpha Ridge Rd.Trimble MO 64492(north of Kansas City)
e-mail remains for now:[email protected]
![Page 70: Title card A Look at Environments Associated with Nighttime Supercell Tornadoes in the Central Plains Meteorologist Jon Davies Private © Dick McGowan &](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022013101/5697c0091a28abf838cc767e/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Book
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F-4
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Available from www.amazon.com
(search on “Jon Davies”)
andwww.farcountrypress.com
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Close© Jon Davies
My site (Greensburg tornado case study):
http://members.cox.net/jdavies1
Earl Barker’s site: www.wxcaster.com
New address:
Jon Davies9101 Alpha Ridge Rd.Trimble MO 64492(north of Kansas City)
e-mail remains for now:[email protected]
![Page 79: Title card A Look at Environments Associated with Nighttime Supercell Tornadoes in the Central Plains Meteorologist Jon Davies Private © Dick McGowan &](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022013101/5697c0091a28abf838cc767e/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)