three things (i think i know) about the land use / transportation connection

Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection

Jon D. Fricker21 June 2007

21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 2

Transportation and Land Use Issues

A. “Urban Sprawl”

B. Euclidean zoning

C. Gasoline prices

D.


What the travel model says:

1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little.


What economic analysis says:

2. A neighborhood can support only so much retail activity.


What people say:

3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone.


1. Changing LU patterns

• Move non-residential LUs into one neighborhood.

• LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite

• Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes.


1. Reverse Engineered N’hood

A. LU Categories by trip frequency:>1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month: Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al.

B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs: Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for

each LU Average size of each LU

C. Scale up to 1 sq mi


1. REN example calc (1)

• 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket

• 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket

• Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs

• Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft 0.004 supermarkets per 100 HH

• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs


1. REN example calc (2)

• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs total land area needed to serve 100 HHs

• Assumed HHs/acre land needed

• Scale up to fill one square mile “attractions” in REN


1. REN travel model

• Let residents work and shop anywhere.

• TAZ size one city block

• Subarea analysis• VMT or Trip Length


1. Changes in Travel

Avg. TL (miles)

REN+5 zones

EUCLID+5 zones

% change w.r.t. EUCLID

HBW 4.601 4.712 -2.4HBNW 2.933 3.233 -9.3NHB 3.790 3.949 -4.0

Avg. TL (miles)

Trips in/out of REN

Trips in and out of EUCLID

% change w.r.t. EUCLID

HBW 2.292 2.407 -4.8

HBNW 0.909 1.012 -10.2NHB 0.763 1.278 -40.3


1. Lessons

• Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer.

• The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level.

• The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level.


2. Neighborhood businesses

• How many retail How many retail establishments can establishments can a New Urbanist a New Urbanist neighborhood neighborhood support?support?


2. Neighborhood businesses

• Shift analysis from trips and GFA to $/HH and $/LU type

• Nhood area one sq mi• 5(?) HHs/sq mi• Do “Market Analysis”

(next two slides)


2. Consumer Expenditure-2. Consumer Expenditure-Based Market AnalysisBased Market Analysis

An average household spends $3000 a year An average household spends $3000 a year on grocery-store related items.on grocery-store related items.

• An average grocery store has sales of An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year.$600,000 a year.

• Then, the number of grocery stores that Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores


2. Household-Based Market 2. Household-Based Market AnalysisAnalysis

• There are 1000 banks in a state with a There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person).person).

• The average income at the state level is $12,000 The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year.a year.

• The average income at the county level is The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year.$10,000 a year.

• Then, the number of banks that can be Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banks$12,000) = 0.83 banks


2. Lessons

At “normal” urban densities for single-family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one-square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge. Density must be increased dramatically,

probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or The “neighborhood” stores must rely on

customers from other neighborhoods.


3. Preference Surveys • Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a

neighborhood association.(1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence. (2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented.


3. LU Preferences (1)

• Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page)

• Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office.

• A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood.


3. LU preferences (2)

1.6

2.2

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2.6

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2.9

3.2

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3.9

4.0

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5.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Liquor Store

Auto Repair Shop

Insurance Sales Office

Office Supplies Store

Video Rental Store

J ewelry Store

Furniture Store

Electric Appliance Store

P rofessional Services Office

Fitness Center

Theatre

Dry Cleaner

Hardware Store

Hair and Beauty Salon

Department Store

Bookstore

Dentist

P ublic Library

Bank

Restauraunt

Doctor

P harmacy

Grocery Store

Church

Av

era

ge

Sc

ore

Land Use Type


3. New Urbanist Cases


3. Residents’ Opinions

• People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety.

• Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic.

• Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity.


In other words, …

• Not this: • But this:


Review of Results

1. Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution.

2. High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed.

3. A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured.

three things (i think i know) about the land use / transportation connection

Documents

slides3 things

ren3 things

banks3 things

trip length3 things

grocery stores3 things

neighborhood level

frequent lus3 things

squaremile neighborhood