thomas søby, landbrug & fødevarer
TRANSCRIPT
”Global potential for the Danish food cluster”June 9 th, 2015
Danish Agriculture & Food Council
Thomas Søby, Chief Economist
Agenda
• Role of exports in Danish economy
• The food cluster today
• The bright future
With a huge potential in exports
Denmark's utilization of the export potential in 2013
Global Europe Oceania Asia North America
South America
Africa0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110100 = potential
Important food cluster
Primary production
Agro industry
Processing
Science and research development
Exports
Danish balance of trade
20140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Others Danish Food clusterDKK billion
Net =
DKK billion 61
DKK billion 151 to 211 countries
2014 – Goods to the World
10 countries = DKK 103 bill. 17 countries = DKK 30 bill.
183 countries = DKK 18 bill.
…
…….
………....
Steady increase in exports, but…
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
81,00586,771 88,727
93,44186,424
93,971100,018
105,149107,449107,39821,38824,999 23,328
23,81822,195
28,14431,130
33,90237,041 32,530
8,3009,517 10,642
12,5098,953
9,62611,192
11,503 11,67111,560
Food
Biobased products
Agri-technologi
DKK billion
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“In the next 40 years, humans will need to produce more food than they did in the previous 10,000 put together”
– The Economist, Jan. 2015
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Everyone needs food …
… we must take action
Agricultural land, hectare per capita World Population (bill.)
• Globally 500,000 new members of the middle class – every day!
• Increasing exploitation of global resources.
Our world is growing
Vast growth potentialfor intensified (resource) effective
production of food
East & Southeast Asia are growing markets
*estimated exports
*DKK bill. , constant prices
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*
2016
*
2017
*
2018
*
2019
* -
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China incl. Hong Kong Rest of East & Southeast Asia
+14 billion since 2000
+ 5 billion since 2014
Responsibility …
… creates growth in balance
Production
Phosphorus surplus
Ammonia loss
Nitrogen surplus
Greenhouse gasses
Phosphorus surplus
”The road to the future - obstacles or growth”
29. april 2015- Lack of raw commodities put pressure on growth.
- Rigid environmental regulations and lengthy approval processes stop the expansion and modernization of farms.
• (Over-) implementation of EU legislation is putting the brakes on Denmark in the international competition.
Increasing demand = export potential
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
*
2016
*
2017
*
2018
*
2019
*
2020
*80
100
120
140
160
180
200 DKK billion, constant prices
Exports Danish food cluster, 2000-2020
* Estimated values
187 bill.
Conclusions
• Denmark is a small open economy
• The food cluster is important
• Great potential in Asia and other areas
• Potential abroad – obstacles at home
KnowledgeGrowth
Balance