Marvin R. ClarkManaging Principal

Chief Economist and Strategist

June 30, 2009Scottsdale, Arizona

Monsoon Wealth Management

Born: May 4, 1979

10 Downing Street,London,

SW1A 2AA

R.I.P.Born: August 27, 1859

Died: September 17, 2008

Great Society Programs 1964-1968

Vietnam War 1959-1975

Suspending the gold standard 1971

The 1st oil embargo 1973

Inexperienced workforce 1972-1982

Antiquated manufacturing facilities

The 2nd oil embargo 1979

Excessive money supply growth

• Falling oil prices 1981-2000• Falling interest rates 1981-2008• Deregulation• Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007• The information and digital age• Personal computer 1981• NAFTA• Globalization• The Internet• Cheap Capital

• Cowboy Capitalism• Leverage• Exotic investment products• Lax supervision• Deficit spending• Derivatives• Lowered underwriting standards• O.P.M. (other peoples’ money)• No Fear

• Dot.com stocks

• Real Estate

• Blue chip stocks

• 20th century debt; 21st century cash flow• Tapped out consumers• Gasoline shock• Overvalued real estate• Toxic assets• Accelerating wealth destruction• Saving banks; destroying banking• TARP

• An L shaped recovery

• Multi-year credit contraction

• Re-regulation

• Low, low growth

• Higher taxes

• Later on, inflation

• China’s driving

• A reduced standard of living in America

• Prepare for a real “black swan”

• Do not worship false green shoots

• Buy gold and TIPS soon

• Avoid stocks and bonds now

• Buy real estate for income only

• Reassess the future

• Don’t believe Wall Street most days