this report contains assessments of commodity and … · report highlights: 2015 corn production is...

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY

USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT

POLICY

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Date:

GAIN Report Number:

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Report Highlights:

2015 corn production is forecast to be 7.3 MMT less than the 2014 harvest. MY 2015/16 corn exports

are forecast at 12.5 MMT; down from 19.4 MMT in MY 2014/15. Ukraine’s 2015 wheat production is

forecast to increase 2.6 MMT over the 2014 crop. MY 2015/16 wheat exports are forecast to increase to

15.6 MMT; a 4.4 MMT increase from MY 2014/15.

Denys Sobolev, Agricultural Specialist

Stan Phillips, Agricultural Counselor

Grain and Feed

Grain and Feed Update

Kiev

Ukraine

UP1535

9/3/2015

Public Voluntary

GAIN Report – UP1535 – Grain and Feed Update of 15

UNCLASSIFIED USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Production

Ukraine’s 2015 harvest resulted in an estimated 26.8 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat, 8.5 MMT of

barley, and .365 MMT of rye according to the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine

(MAPF). Compared with the 2014 crop, 2015 wheat production increased 2.6 MMT while barley

production decreased over .5 MMT and rye production decreased by 113 thousand MMT.

Ukraine’s corn harvest is ongoing. FAS Kyiv has reduced its forecast for Ukraine’s 2015 corn crop to

21.1 MMT (versus 28.5 MMT in 2014) to reflect reduced production area and unfavorable weather

conditions impacting plant growth conditions and productivity. August 2015 featured high temperatures

and low rates of precipitation for all territory of Ukraine, especially in Western regions, Mykolaiv,

Vinnitsa and Lugansk regions that have experienced a severe lack of rainfall. At the same time certain

parts of Kherson, Zaporozhe and Dnipropetrovsk regions have seen torrential rains.

The satellite imagery maps included below depict the vegetative development index (NDVI) for August,

2015. NDVI are consistent with the low rainfall, and are an indicator of the unfavorable growing

conditions for corn.



Decreased moisture content in the soil could force producers to miss optimum dates for planting winter

crops eventually leading to decreased productivity for the 2016 harvest. For more information

regarding the production areas for major crops, please see GAIN Report UP1528.

Trade

MY 2015/16 corn exports are forecast at 12.5 MMT; down from 19.4 MMT in MY 2014/15.

MY 2015/16 wheat exports are forecast to increase to 15.6 MMT; a 4.4 MMT increase from MY

2014/15. MY 2015/16 barley exports are forecast at 4.5MMT; comparable to the MY2014/15 level.

MY 2015/16 rye exports are forecast at 27,000 MT; slightly above the MY2014/15 level.

According to the preliminary data reported by the MAPF, Ukraine exported about 1.4 MMT of wheat

and 1.2 MMT of barley from the beginning of MY 2015/16 through August 14, 2015.

Official data from the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine indicate Ukraine exported 4.5 MMT of barley in

MY 2014/15; an 80 percent increase over MY 2013/14. Data for wheat exports indicate that Ukraine

exported 10.9 MMT of wheat in MY 2014/15; 16 percent more exports than MY 2013/14. MY 2014/15

rye exports reached 22,000 MT; a 57 percent reduction from MY 2013/14.

Corn exports from October 2014 to June 2015 reached 18.2 MMT which is comparable with the pace of

exports for the same period in the previous marketing year. See the statistical tables at the end of this

report for more details.

Recent domestic and export prices in Ukraine for wheat, corn and barley are shown in the following

graphs. For more information about please refer to GAIN Report UP1528.

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Kiev_Ukraine_7-20-2015.pdf

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Kiev_Ukraine_7-20-2015.pdf



Stocks

Wheat ending stocks are forecast to decrease to 4.8 MMT in MY 2015/16 from 5.2 MMT in

MY 2014/15. MY 2015/16 barley ending stocks are projected to decrease to 8.5 MMT from 9 MMT in

MY 2014/15.

MY 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected to decrease to 1.4 MMT from 1.9 MMT in MY 2014/15.



Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

For MY2015/16 barley production is forecast to increase to 8.5 MMT and rye production to decrease to

365,000 MT reflecting decreased production area for these crops versus initial forecasts. The 2015

wheat crop is forecast to increase to 26.8 MMT based on the higher-than-expected crop productivity and

this respectively translated into subsequent export volume increases. 2015 corn production is forecast to

decrease to 21.1 MMT based on the expected impact of unfavorable weather conditions. Reduced

exportable supplies are expected to cause MY 2015/16 corn exports to decrease to 12.5 MMT.

Ukraine’s difficult economic situation and the subsequent influence on consumer demand is expected to

reinforce the trend toward reduced animal inventories. In turn, food and feed consumption for all major

grain crops is forecast to decrease in MY 2015/16 creating additional exportable supplies for wheat,

barley and rye.



Policy

The leadership of MAPF is committed to sign a new Memorandum of Understanding with the Ukrainian

grain sector on trade terms. It is anticipated that the new season trade terms would be similar to the

agreements reached in the preceding year.

Ukraine streamlined its phytosanitary legislation through a set of norms intended to impose tighter

deadlines for issuing quarantine certificates, ensuring public availability of information, introduction of

risk assessment-based activities and raising level of responsibility for actions/inactivity by government

officials. These amendments should potentially decrease logistics costs for plant origin products



exported from Ukraine. For more details, see GAIN Report UP1533.

Author Defined: Statistical Tables

Barley

Quantity % Share Quantity % Share Quantity % Share

World 2,133.8 100.00 2,475.2 100.00 4,454.6 100.00 79.97

Saudi Arabia 1,457.4 68.30 1,631.3 65.90 2,806.0 62.99 72.02

Turkey 33.7 1.58 0.0 0.00 394.4 8.85 0.00

Iran 155.5 7.29 0.0 0.00 306.7 6.89 0.00

China 0.0 0.00 4.8 0.19 250.9 5.63 5130.46

Libya 154.8 7.26 241.9 9.77 226.7 5.09 - 6.29

Israel 99.0 4.64 117.5 4.75 120.4 2.70 2.50

Algeria 0.0 0.00 25.1 1.01 70.2 1.58 180.04

Tunisia 0.0 0.00 107.3 4.34 53.7 1.21 - 49.94

Jordan 132.8 6.22 101.6 4.10 52.5 1.18 - 48.32

Kuwait 26.1 1.22 104.5 4.22 36.3 0.81 - 65.26

Egypt 32.2 1.51 0.0 0.00 20.1 0.45 0.00

Lebanon 20.2 0.95 6.9 0.28 13.9 0.31 100.77

Italy 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 7.4 0.16 0.00

United Arab Emirates 6.3 0.30 28.4 1.15 6.6 0.15 - 76.66

Syria 0.0 0.00 29.0 1.17 4.8 0.11 - 83.47

United Kingdom 1.5 0.07 0.0 0.00 3.7 0.08 0.00

Netherlands 0.3 0.01 0.3 0.01 3.5 0.08 1091.08

Slovakia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.5 0.06 6209.71

Belarus 5.9 0.28 0.6 0.02 1.5 0.03 174.28

Poland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 1.5 0.03 0.00

Taiwan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 1.1 0.02 0.00

Armenia 1.3 0.06 0.0 0.00 0.8 0.02 0.00

Romania 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.3 0.01 0.00

Palestine 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.2 0.00 0.00

Philippines 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00

Bahrain 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00

Austria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.00

Germany 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.1 0.00 - 29.11

Pakistan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Georgia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 475.33

Moldova 0.1 0.00 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 65.03

Switzerland 0.1 0.00 8.5 0.34 0.0 0.00 - 99.74

Russia 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Lithuania 0.0 0.00 1.0 0.04 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Denmark 0.0 0.00 0.2 0.01 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Greece 2.0 0.09 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Kyrgyzstan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Kazakhstan 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Korea South 0.0 0.00 1.2 0.05 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Uzbekistan 1.5 0.07 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine

Barley Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1003)

Destination

MY 2012/13

(July 12-June 13)

MY 2014/15

(July 14-June 15)% Change

MY 2014/15 to

2013/14

MY 2013/14

(July 13-June 14)

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Ukraine%20Amendments%20to%20Plant%20Quarantine%20Law_Kiev_Ukraine_9-10-2015.pdf




World 8.0 100.00 16.3 100.00 0.6 100.00 - 96.39

Germany 0.2 2.42 0.2 1.18 0.3 43.06 31.21

Czech Republic 0.3 3.99 0.3 1.57 0.2 31.62 - 27.24

Austria 0.0 0.37 0.0 0.05 0.1 11.48 718.83

France 0.0 0.52 0.1 0.80 0.0 4.35 - 80.31

Serbia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.12 0.0 3.41 0.55

Hungary 0.0 0.25 0.0 0.12 0.0 3.39 0.00

Romania 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 2.21 0.00

Poland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.34 0.00

Netherlands 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.13 29.09

Moldova 0.0 0.00 0.2 1.10 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Argentina 7.3 92.06 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Denmark 0.0 0.00 3.0 18.36 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Russia 0.0 0.38 12.5 76.68 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

United Kingdom 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Barley Imports to Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1003)

Destination


MY 2012/13

(July 12-June 13)

MY 2013/14

(July 13-June 14)

MY 2014/15


MY 2014/15 to

2013/14



Wheat


World 6,886.1 100.00 9,410.2 100.00 10,883.5 100.00 15.66

Egypt 1,646.4 23.91 2,774.5 29.48 2,426.7 22.30 - 12.54

Spain 833.6 12.11 9.9 0.11 737.4 6.78 7348.69

Bangladesh 0.0 0.00 345.0 3.67 646.4 5.94 87.38

Korea South 101.8 1.48 169.3 1.80 578.8 5.32 241.95

Pakistan 0.0 0.00 164.4 1.75 502.8 4.62 205.88

Thailand 7.6 0.11 386.2 4.10 488.9 4.49 26.59

Morocco 795.7 11.55 242.9 2.58 463.4 4.26 90.80

Tunisia 450.6 6.54 340.3 3.62 455.1 4.18 33.73

Israel 350.7 5.09 406.5 4.32 454.2 4.17 11.76

Philippines 0.5 0.01 235.8 2.51 441.3 4.05 87.14

Italy 68.4 0.99 14.5 0.15 420.6 3.86 2792.18

South Africa 271.3 3.94 505.4 5.37 311.8 2.86 - 38.32

Turkey 130.0 1.89 146.6 1.56 292.3 2.69 99.41

Libya 376.4 5.47 383.8 4.08 261.4 2.40 - 31.90

Lebanon 112.0 1.63 172.5 1.83 240.3 2.21 39.28

Kenya 306.0 4.44 522.8 5.56 226.4 2.08 - 56.70

Indonesia 31.5 0.46 376.5 4.00 220.0 2.02 - 41.56

Djibouti 0.0 0.00 169.2 1.80 188.9 1.74 11.70

Yemen 101.6 1.48 120.5 1.28 169.7 1.56 40.87

Syria 419.5 6.09 317.9 3.38 137.0 1.26 - 56.90

Mozambique 34.7 0.50 14.0 0.15 120.6 1.11 760.31

Mexico 0.0 0.00 33.0 0.35 116.3 1.07 252.30

United Arab Emirates 73.8 1.07 35.4 0.38 104.9 0.96 196.73

Greece 3.2 0.05 0.0 0.00 84.5 0.78 ∞

Malaysia 6.3 0.09 29.0 0.31 74.8 0.69 157.42

Uganda 75.4 1.10 48.9 0.52 69.1 0.63 41.09

Netherlands 43.2 0.63 28.2 0.30 67.8 0.62 140.70

Iran 0.0 0.00 120.7 1.28 66.0 0.61 - 45.32

Mauritania 37.3 0.54 43.2 0.46 53.7 0.49 24.44

Jordan 351.1 5.10 431.8 4.59 52.5 0.48 - 87.84

Ethiopia 0.0 0.00 122.9 1.31 49.7 0.46 - 59.53

United Kingdom 2.8 0.04 37.3 0.40 48.8 0.45 30.99

Malta 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 41.3 0.38 0.00

Georgia 13.9 0.20 10.9 0.12 38.1 0.35 251.09

Algeria 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 22.3 0.20 0.00

Tanzania 55.6 0.81 10.0 0.11 21.3 0.20 113.00

Japan 0.0 0.00 267.0 2.84 21.0 0.19 - 92.12

Lithuania 6.3 0.09 0.1 0.00 20.5 0.19 ∞

Sudan 89.8 1.30 99.5 1.06 20.1 0.18 - 79.79

Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 18.7 0.17 0.00

Zambia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 15.3 0.14 0.00

Germany 5.9 0.09 12.0 0.13 14.8 0.14 23.40

Belarus 11.9 0.17 3.3 0.03 11.5 0.11 253.60

Nigeria 0.0 0.00 10.2 0.11 11.0 0.10 8.37

Taiwan 0.0 0.00 11.0 0.12 9.5 0.09 - 14.13

Burundi 7.0 0.10 9.3 0.10 8.0 0.07 - 14.32

Cyprus 2.9 0.04 0.0 0.00 5.7 0.05 0.00

Poland 0.0 0.00 0.9 0.01 4.1 0.04 380.31

Panama 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 3.8 0.04 0.00

Switzerland 1.5 0.02 5.5 0.06 2.7 0.03 - 50.44

Zimbabwe 0.0 0.00 6.4 0.07 2.7 0.03 - 57.59

Virgin Islands (British) 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.7 0.02 0.00

India 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.6 0.02 0.00

Austria 0.7 0.01 3.4 0.04 2.3 0.02 - 30.82

Azerbaijan 1.5 0.02 0.0 0.00 2.0 0.02 0.00

Armenia 0.0 0.00 4.4 0.05 1.7 0.02 - 61.38

Vietnam 0.0 0.00 99.9 1.06 1.5 0.01 - 98.47

France 0.0 0.00 8.1 0.09 0.6 0.01 - 92.92

Bahrain 0.0 0.00 27.5 0.29 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Congo 0.0 0.00 4.9 0.05 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Congo Dem. Rep. 0.0 0.00 31.2 0.33 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Korea North 0.0 0.00 7.5 0.08 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Portugal 31.8 0.46 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Myanmar 3.0 0.04 3.3 0.04 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Malawi 0.0 0.00 22.7 0.24 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Rwanda 13.0 0.19 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00Senegal 8.6 0.12 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Other 1.3 0.0 2.6 0.0 5.5 0.1 111.0Source: State Fiscal Service of Ukraine

Wheat Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001)

Destination

% Change

MY 2014/15 to

2013/14

MY 2012/13

(July 12-June 13)

MY 2013/14

(July 13-June 14)

MY 2014/15

(July 14-June 15)




World 1.4 100.00 1.7 100.00 1.9 100.00 10.64

Germany 0.5 33.90 0.8 49.94 1.0 52.05 15.31

Czech Republic 0.3 23.90 0.3 20.73 0.4 21.42 14.34

Austria 0.1 7.17 0.2 9.19 0.3 18.63 124.31

Russia 0.3 18.80 0.1 7.96 0.1 3.27 - 54.48

Poland 0.0 2.94 0.0 1.19 0.0 2.31 114.90

Serbia 0.0 0.00 0.2 10.69 0.0 1.09 - 88.68

Croatia 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 1.07 0.00

Romania 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.08 0.00

France 0.0 1.57 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.05 - 27.02

Switzerland 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.04 0.0 0.01 - 67.53

Italy 0.1 8.78 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 16.67

Spain 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

New Zealand 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Mexico 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 23.69

Turkey 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 - 82.13

United States 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.18 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Australia 0.0 2.94 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

Netherlands 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

MY 2013/14

(July 13-June 14)

MY 2014/15


MY 2014/15 to

2013/14


Wheat Imports to Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1001)

Destination

MY 2012/13

(July 12-June 13)

Rye


World 16.5 100.00 50.9 100.00 21.9 100.00 - 56.87

Lithuania 0.0 0.00 5.2 10.20 10.7 48.90 106.71

Spain 0.0 0.00 24.4 47.99 8.7 39.48 - 64.52

Latvia 1.1 6.94 11.0 21.64 1.9 8.53 - 83.00

Poland 1.0 6.05 5.8 11.45 0.3 1.57 - 94.09

Belarus 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.04 0.1 0.55 471.63

Germany 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.49 ∞

Netherlands 0.6 3.79 0.3 0.49 0.1 0.39 - 65.65

Israel 12.3 74.22 3.0 5.99 0.0 0.10 - 99.30

Switzerland 0.2 0.93 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00

United Kingdom 1.3 8.07 1.1 2.19 0.0 0.00 - 100.00

Destination

MY 2012/13

(July 12-June 13)

MY 2013/14

(July 13-June 14)

Rye Exports from Ukraine by Destination, MY, 1000 MT (HS Code 1002)


% Change

MY 2014/15 to

2013/14

MY 2014/15

(July 14-June 15)



Corn

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