D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Thinking about…

Future of Agriculture… in Australia to 2025

James Walcott

Allan Curtis

Anthony Clark

Rohan Nelson/ Vince O’Donnell

Vicki Manson

Tom Aldred/Carolyn Page

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Outline

n Context

– Historical changes

– Selections from previous BRS seminars

– Predictions for international environment

– Quotes on the future

n Personal perspectives

– Allan Curtis

– Anthony Clark

– Rohan Nelson

– Vicki Manson

– Tom Aldred

n Open discussion

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Agriculture is …..

People earning income by producing food and fibre from naturalresources.

Science or practice of cultivating the soil and rearing animals (APOD)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year of reporting

Dry

sh

eep

eq

uiv

alen

ts (

mill

ion

s)

Sheep Numbers

Cattle (dse)

Grains (dse)

Intensive crops (dse)

Production of major industries – Australia since 1860

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Dry

sh

eep

eq

uiv

alan

ts (

mill

ion

s)

Rabbits

World

rece

ssio

n

Dro

ughts

WW 1

WW 2 Wh

eat

qu

ota

s

EC

, Jap

an m

eat

imp

ort

qu

ota

s

Total agricultural production - Australia since 1860

Dro

ug

ht

Drought D

rou

gh

t

Oil

cris

is

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1860 1871 1879 1900 1910 1921 1931 1941 1951 1962 1973 1985 1993

Year

Yie

ld (

t/h

a)

running mean 5 year

Innovations and wheat yields – Australia since 1860

11.7 kg/ha/yr

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Area and number of farms 1961-2001

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Year of reporting

Are

a o

f fa

rms

(m h

a)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Nu

mb

er o

f fa

rms

Area of farms LHS

Number of farms RHS

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Major influences on agricultural practices

n Production factors

n Marketing factors

n Social factors

n External factors

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

BRS seminars

n Water and Salt – the next 25 years (in the MurrayDarling Basin) (Don Blackmore 21 Feb 2003)

n Climate change – impacts and adaptation (ColinGrant 28 Feb 2003)

n Global environmental changes: implications foragriculture (Robert Watson 1 Oct 2003)

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Water trading

From this ....From this .... To this To this ……..

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Average river salinity (EC) - NSW

450450Macintyre

600560Gwydir

1050680Namoi

760640Castlereagh

1280620Macquarie

1500730Bogan

430360Darling (Menindee)

780530Lachlan (Forbes)

320250Murrumbidgee

2020CurrentRiver valley

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

SRES projections of CO2 emissions andconcentrations

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Source: CSIRO

Temperature change (°C)

Temperature projections

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Source: CSIRO

% rainfall

Rainfall projections

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Source: CSIRO

mm

Moisture balance projections

D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

More hot daysand heat waves

Fewer frosts

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Innovations

n Crop biotechnology breakthroughs to accelerate

– Increasing concerns by the public over theenvironmental and human health implications oftransgenic crops

– Growing IPR concerns

n Demand for non-traditional agricultural products(agro-pharmaceuticals) to increase

n Role of information technology in agriculture to grow

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Ecosystem ServicesThe benefits people obtain from ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtained from

regulation ofecosystemprocesses

ÿ climate control

ÿ disease control

ÿ flood control

ÿ detoxification

ProvisioningGoods produced or provided by

ecosystems

ÿ food

ÿ fresh water

ÿ fuel wood

ÿ fiber

ÿ biochemicals

ÿ genetic resources

CulturalNon-material benefits

obtained from ecosystems

ÿ spiritual

ÿ recreational

ÿ aesthetic

ÿ inspirational

ÿ educational

ÿ communal

ÿ symbolic

SupportingServices that maintain the conditions for life on earth.

ÿ Soil formation

ÿ Nutrient cycling

ÿ Pollination

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Ecosystem ServicesThe benefits people obtain from ecosystems

n Food, fibre, fresh water

n Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystemprocesses

n Cultural benefits

n Services that maintain the conditions for life onearth.

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Predictions of HIGH confidence

n World population will be about 8 billion (Aust 25 m)

n Demand for food will grow in response to population

n CO2 concentration will be above 400 ppm

n Australian agriculture will still be export oriented

FAO (2003) World agriculture – towards 2015/30

Rosegrant, Cai & Cline (2002) World water and food to 2025: dealingwith scarcity. International Food Policy Research Institute

OECD (1998) The future of food: long-term prospects for the agro-food sector.

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Predictions by International organisations ….

n World population will be about 8 billion (Aust 25 m)

n Demand for food will grow in response to population

n Demand for meat will rise from 198 to 336/373 Mt

n Demand for cereals demand to rise from 1,770 to2,600/2,838 Mt

FAO (2003) World agriculture – towards 2015/30

Rosegrant, Cai & Cline (2002) World water and food to 2025: dealingwith scarcity. International Food Policy Research Institute

OECD (1998) The future of food: long-term prospects for the agro-food sector.

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

…… more predictions

n Prices to decline (to 95 – 89 % of 1995)

n Consumers will increasingly pay for quality andsafety of food, environmental impacts of productionpractices

n Shift in policy from agricultural viability into broaderrural development (multiple functions)

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Predictions of LOW confidence

n Prices to decline (to 95 – 89 % of 1995)

n Consumers will increasingly pay for quality andsafety of food, environmental impacts of productionpractices

n Shift in policy from agricultural viability into broaderrural development (multiple functions)

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Onwards …….

n The future is made up of the same stuff as thepresent– Simone Weil

n Change comes from small initiatives which work,initiatives which, imitated, become the fashion– Charles Handy (1994) The Empty Raincoat: making sense of

the future

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

….. and upwards

The best way to predict the future is toinvent it.

Alan Kay

D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Social changes- the farm family

Allan Curtis - BRS

D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Key technology drivers

Anthony Clark - BRS

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Solar cells

Electronic ear tags

D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

The next generation’s vision - agricultural knowledge?

Vicki Manson

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Compliments of the Season

n BRS Seminar series resumes Friday 13 February2004

n

n

n EBB Conference Centre (in the courtyard)Edmund Barton BuildingKings Avenue, Canberra

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Discussion points made from audience (1)

n Agriculture is dead! It should be focussing on being part of thefood chain and maximising its role in it.

n Climate change impacts will impinge in the near future and weshould be thinking about what to do now.

n It is not just climate change that is important but whole change inatmosphere

n Anthony’s digital scenario could arrive much sooner – and not justproductivity but following product through to market

n The future of agriculture is silviculture and, if food production isconcentrated in intensive use of parts of a farm, what will theother parts be use for

n Should consider what is the identity of the sector – what is it theindustry is selling, sustenance, healthy nutrition, tourism?

n Should also consider the consequences of a continuation of usingmore land for intensive forms of agriculture, will it be available,and what will be the impacts?

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRYD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E, F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

Discussion points from audience (2)

n Most considerations have focussed on measurement,climate-based and management-based scenarios whichoperate on short wave cycles. I think the future is moreabout the socially imposed drivers, consumer preferenceswhich form long-wave cycles.

n Internationalise the social signals so farmers can respond,with a major focus on social change

n The value shifts that flow from demographic changes(urbanisation) will direct influence into a wider range ofvalues