think like a futurist
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CONQUERING CHAOS
MN AM
A An
nual Conference
⋅11.0
8.10
T H I N K L I K E A F U T U R I S T
CEC I L Y SOMMERS
Director, Futures StudiesBluedog Design
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and the wisdom to know the difference
think like a futurist the serenity prayer
think like a futurist 09.28.10
think like a futurist 09.28.10
A crisis is a terrible thing
think like a futurist crisis
(to waste) Rahm Emanuel (via Paul Romer)
KNOW DO
NEWbetter
think like a futurist crisis
better better
CONQUERING CHAOSCONQUERING CHAOS
p e r c e p t i o n
Learning, Memory
Left Hemisphere
Language
Right Hemisphere
Imagery
Motivation & Emotion
think like a futurist
Senses
Motivation & Emotion
Autonomic System: Pain, Arousal
how we think
L: KNOWPART I: Learn
Agenda
R: NEWPART II: Play
L: DOPART III: Move
think like a futurist the antidote
PART I: KNOW
demographics
lawmarkets
governance
think like a futurist four forces
technology
resources
demographics
◦ Earth
◦ Ocean
◦ Space
◦ Climate
◦ Energy
◦ Water
◦ Land
◦ Food
◦ Sun
◦ Animals
◦ Habitat
◦ Minerals
◦ Forest
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
ResourcesFour Forces
think like a futurist four forces_resources
think like a futurist four forces_resources
think like a futurist four forces_resources
lawmarkets
TRENDS
INTEGRATION
think like a futurist four forces
resources
ISSUES
◦ Genetics
◦ Robotics
◦ Information
◦ Nanotechnology
◦ Health care
◦ Education
◦ Collaboration
◦ Virtual reality
◦ Games
◦ Telephony
◦ Manufacturing
◦ Infrastructure
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
TechnologyFour Forces
think like a futurist four forces_technology
think like a futurist four forces_technology
lawmarkets
energy
infrastructure
think like a futurist
technology
infrastructure
four forces_technology
◦ 6.1 B in 2000
◦ 9B in 2050
◦ Developing ++
◦ Industrial ---
◦ Immigration
◦ Multi-cultural
◦ Multi-lingual
◦ Nationalism
◦ Conflict
◦ Capital formation
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
DemographicsFour Forces
think like a futurist four forces_demographics
think like a futurist four forces_demographics
lawmarkets
laborlabor
multi-ethnicmulti-ethnic
think like a futurist
demographics
multi-ethnicmulti-ethnic
four forces_demographics
◦ Tribalism
◦ Market drivers
◦ Values
◦ Interests
◦ Beliefs
◦ Onlinecommunities
◦ Personalization
GovernanceFour Forces
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
◦ Personalization
◦ Polarization
32
33
PART II: NEW
◦ Business need
◦ Futures research
◦ Brand experience
◦ New technologies
◦ Scenario development
◦ Outside experts
◦ Experiential exploration
◦ “Like That”
◦ “Fill the Box”
◦ Having it all
◦ “Duh!,” “Love it!”, High Risk/Reward
ZONE OF DISCOVERY
High Risk/Reward
◦ Chunking it down
◦ First Movable Piece
◦ Deliverables, resource requests, Q-2-Q
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
• “Like That!”
Pour & St ir
• “Like That!”• Play• Time out
© Cecily Sommers, 2010
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & INNOVATION
MEGATREND
CHALLENGE
Increased Energy Consumption
Pressure to conserve
Growing Geriatric Group
Increased demand for care-giving services
FUTURE MARKET
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY
Energy-saving technologies & services
Energy contracting for private households
Supporting care-giving relatives
Web 2.0 opportunities to manage everyday life
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT & INNOVATION
Megatrend
Challenge
Innovation
What needs and pressures result?
Future Market
Business Opportunity
Services & Products to meet those needs?
Unique, purpose-ful offering
L: KNOWStudy structural and systemic factorsDefine issue in those termsDetermine your Best Question
Forward March!
R: NEWExploreInvent
L: DOExecute5% Factor
think like a futurist the antidote
PART III: DO
Duh!
think like a futurist four forces
Love it!OMG!
Assumptions, Outcomes, Resources
•10 Years• 5 years
Plan in Reverse
• 5 years• 2 years
• 1 year• 6 months
• 3 months…
think like a futurist the antidote
Duh! Love it! High Risk/Reward
think like a futurist four forces
“The to plant
a tree was ago.”best time20 years
a tree was ago.”20 years
Chinese Proverb
think like a futurist four forces
