thị trường nội tệ liên ngân hàng mỹ-manhdat nộp

8/2/2019 Th trng ni t lin ngn hng M-ManhDat np

1/25

Th trng ni t lin ngn hng M

A-Gii thiu chung:

- Th trng lin ngn hng ca M cng c phn ging

nh th trng lin ngn hng cc nc khc l cng l ni

cc t chc tn dng vay mn nhau khon d tr d tha cng

c nhng c im v ngha nh th trng tin t lin Ngn

Hng cc nc khc tuy nhin M c nhiu s khc bit.

- So snh v cu trc NH m v nc ngoi

Cu trc ca cng nghip NH M khc tn gc so vi cu trc

ca cng nghip ngn hng cc nc khc. M l nc duy nhtkhng c mt h thng ngn hng quc gia ich thc, trong

cc ngn hng c chi nhnh khp ni. Ngc li vi cc nc

khc, nc M kt thc vi mt m hnh bao trm xc xch

cc iu l tiu bang lin bang ch o ngn hng lin tiu bang,

m hnh ny ngn chn mt h thng ngn hang quc gia.

Kt qu l M c nhiu ngn hang hn cc nc cng nghip

khc.


2/25

B- Th trng lin ngn hng M

I, Ch th tham gia

1-Cc d tr lin bang M (FED)

Fed a ra thit ch, iu lut cho th trng tin t

nhm m bo mt th trng tin t nng ng , c hiu

qu ,tri chy v c t chc.

Fed ko nhm n kinh doanh tin t kim li, cng ko

tham gia th trng m bo kh nng thanh ton m ch

yu qun l th trng v iu hnh th trng.

Fed ko pht hnh tin m thay vo l b ti chnh

2-Cc t chc tn dng

Ngn hng thng mi l 1 trung gian hat ng chnh

trn th trng tin t. Mc ch hat ng l duy tr kh

nng thanh ton ca cc ngn hng thng mi khi cn thit

, sinh li ti a i vi nhng khon vn tm thi nhn ri

Cc t chc phi ti chnh nh :chnh ph, chnh quyn

cac bang, cac cng ty thng mimc ch tham gia ca cc

ch th

Ny l khc nhau. Chng hn, vi cc doanhnghip tham gia

th trng th h ly mc tiu li nhun l hng u. Ngoi racn c th l m bo kh nng thanh ton. H tham gia

vi t cch l ngi vay vn hay l nh u t. i vi chnh

ph, h tham gia vi t cch l vay vn nhm b p phn


3/25

thm ht ngn sch hng nm. C nhn, h gia nh tham gia

vi t cch l ngi cho vay, l thnh vin tch cc ca th

trng.

3-Nh mi gii

nh kinh doanh v nh u t gp nhau khng phi lc no

cng xy ra. Trc nhu cu m nh mi gii xut hin vi

t cch l ngi mi li hai bn tha mn nhu cu ca

mnh.

II, Hng ho v gi c ca Th trng tin t lin NH M:

Th trng tin t lin ngn hang l ni chuen giao ngun vn

ngn hn gia cc t chc tn dng vi nhau v gia cc t chc

tn dng vi Fed.

i tng vay mn trn th trng tin t lin ngn hang l

khon d tr tm thi d tha th hin trn s d ti khon tin

gi ca t chc tn dng ti NHTW c th c ni t v ngoi t.

1- Hng ho trao i trn th trng:

Thc cht l quyn s dng cc khon ngn qu d tha tm

thi (vn kh dng ca cc TCTD)

2- Gi c trn TTTT lin NHLi sut lin NH l li sut tho thun, n thay i theo thi

gian v ph hp vi chnh sch li sut ca NHTW.


4/25

T l li sut ca M thp nht vo nm 2003, sau h v tng

dn ln n mc nh im 5,25% vo na cui nm 2006 cho n

ngy 18/9/2007.

Sau khi th trng tn dng y

kh khn v th trng nh t suy

yu, ngy 18/9/2007 FED m u

t ct gim li sut, t cho n

nay FED ct gim li sut 5 ln,

tng mc ct gim l 2,25%. Nhiu

kh nng FED s cn tip tc ct

gim li sut ngn nguy c suy

thoi. Mt s chuyn gia lo ngi

rng nu FED tip tc ct gim li

sut, s c nguy c xy ra bong bng ti sn trong tng lai.

T l li sut lin bang ti M

t nm 2003 n nm 2008

(Ngun: FED).


5/25

3. Nhn t nh hng n li sut

* Cc d tr lin bang M (FED)

y l nhn t quan trng nht nh hng n li sut.

Trong vai tr ca mt Ngn hng trung ng, FED l ngn hng ca

cc ngn hng v l ngn hng ca Chnh ph lin bang. FED

c xy dng m bo duy tr cho nc M mt chnh

sch tin t linh hot hn, an ton hn, v n nh hn.

Vi vai tr l Ngn hng trung ng ca nn kinh t mnh nht th

gii, mi quyt nh ca FED u gin tip nh hng ln n nnkinh t ton cu. Ngi ta hay ni vui rng "mt ci ht hi s mi

ca ch tch FED" cng lm chao o nn kinh t th gii, xt v

mt no cng khng phi l khng c l. Gi s FED tng li

sut. Theo nhn nh ca cc chuyn gia, s c nhng phn ng dy

chuyn sau khi FED tng li sut. C th thy tc ng trc mt, l

ngn hng Trung ng nhiu nc s phi nng mc li sut

theo - tt nhin s nhng mc khc nhau. Sau khi M tng li

sut, cc ngn hng cc nc s phi tng li sut tit kim ngoi

t, h qu l cc khch hng s chuyn sang gi bng USD.

Mi khi c tin FED ct gim hay nng li sut, l li sut qua

m (FED Fund Rate). y l li sut cc ngn hng tnh chonhau khi vay qua m bo m t l d tr bt buc. Quyt

nh nng, gim li sut chnh ra l do y ban Th trng M

Lin bang (FEDeral Open Market Committee) a ra. Li sut


6/25

ny s tc ng ln li sut chit khu, tc l li sut FED tnh

khi cho cc ngn hng khc vay tin cho khch hng vay li

(thng cao hn li sut FED Fund mt im phn trm).

Li sut qua m l mt trong nhng cng c FED iu

hnh h thng tin t. Ni chnh xc hn na, FED cng khng

quyt nh li sut m ch a ra mc li sut mun hng n;

sau dng th trng m tc ng sao cho li sut qua m

ng vi li sut mun cCc NHTW s dng cc chnh sch tin t thc hin vic kim

sat v iu tit khi lng tin cung ng hoc li sut cn c

vo nhu cu tin t ca nn kinh t nhm t c mc tiu

cui cng l n nh gi c , cng n vic lm. L mt bin s

quan trng, c nh hng trc tip n mc tiu cui cng v

nahy cm vi cc cng c chnh sch, li sut c chn l

mt trong nhng ci ch m cc NHTW nhm ti nhm gin

tip tc ng n cc mc tiu ca mnh. bt u cho qu

trnh s dng cc cng c iu tit nn kinh t, cc NHTW

s tin hnh cc bin php tc ng lm thay i d tr ngn

hng. Vic ny c tin hnh thng qua cc hot ng muabn tri phiu trn th trng m, qua cc chnh sch ti chit

khu, hoc thng qua cng c d tr bt buc( ch yu l thng

qua nghip v th trng m).


7/25

Mua v bn tri phiu chnh ph: Khi Cc d tr lin bang

(Fed) mua tri phiu chnh ph, tin c a thm vo lu

thng. Bi c thm tin trong lu thng, li sut s gim

xung v chi tiu, vay ngn hng s gia tng. Khi Fed bn ra

tri phiu chnh ph, tc ng s din ra ngc li, tin rt bt

khi lu thng, khan him tin s lm tng li sut dn n

vay n t ngn hng kh khn hn. Nh vy, cc nghip v

mua bn hng ngy trn th trng tin t ca FED lm thay

i d tr ca h thng ngn hng v s thay i ny c tcng chi phi li sut lin bang..

Quy nh lng tin mt d tr: Ngn hng thnh vin cho

vay phn ln lng tin m n qun l. Nu Fed yu cu cc

ngn hng ny phi d tr mt phn lng tin ny, khi

phn cho vay s gim i, vay mn kh hn v li sut tng

ln.)

Thay i li sut ca khon vay t Fed: Cc ngn hng thnh

vin ca Fed vay tin t Fed trang tri cc nhu cu ngn

hn. Li sut m Fed n nh cho cc khon vay ny gi l li

sut chit khu ( c cng b hai tun mt ln). Hot ng

ny c nh hng, tuy nh hn, v s lng tin cc thnhvin s c vay

Cc d tr lin bang cn thc hin chnh sch tin t ch yu bng

cch nh hng "li sut qu vn ti Fed". y l t l cc ngn
http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_chi%E1%BA%BFt_kh%E1%BA%A5uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_chi%E1%BA%BFt_kh%E1%BA%A5uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_qu%E1%BB%B9_v%E1%BB%91n_t%E1%BA%A1i_Fed&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_chi%E1%BA%BFt_kh%E1%BA%A5uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_chi%E1%BA%BFt_kh%E1%BA%A5uhttp://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_qu%E1%BB%B9_v%E1%BB%91n_t%E1%BA%A1i_Fed&action=edit&redlink=1


8/25

hng n nh vi nhau cho khon vay qua m cc qu t cc ti

Cc d tr lin bang. T l ny do th trng quyt nh ch Fed

khng p buc. Tuy vy, Fed s c gng tc ng t l ny con s

ph hp vi t l mong mun bng cch b sung hoc hn ch

ngun cung tin t thng qua hot ng ca n trn th trng.

C hai loi li sut trn u vn hnh cung chiu vi nhau chi phi

li sut u i (l t l m cc ngn hng tnh li i vi khon vay

ca nhng khch hng tin cy nht). Khi cn thit, ty theo mc tiu

ca chnh sch tin t, FED tuyn b thay i li sut chit khu,lm thay i ph vay t FED. Thay i trong li sut chit khu ko

theo s thay i cng chiu trong li sut qu vn lin bang, V v

li sut vn lin bang l li sut ch o nn n s tc ng n li

sut th trng tin t..=> Tng li sut chit khu lun ng ngha

vi vic tng li sut ton nn kinh t v tht cht cung ng tin.

ngc li, s gim li sut chit khu l thng ip chc chn v

vic h ton b li sut v tng cung tin. Cc ngn hng thng la

chn cch vay qu t cc ti Fed t mt ngn hng khc mc d li

sut ny cao hn t l chit khu ca Fed. L do ca cch la chn

ny l vic vay tin t Fed mang tnh cng khai rng ri, n s a

n ch ca cng chng v kh nng thanh khon v mc tincy ca ngn hng ang i vay.

4. Tc ng ca s bin ng li sut
http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_%C6%B0u_%C4%91%C3%A3i&action=edit&redlink=1http://vi.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=L%C3%A3i_su%E1%BA%A5t_%C6%B0u_%C4%91%C3%A3i&action=edit&redlink=1


9/25

Trong iu kin hin nay, khi nguy c lm pht ang e da cc nn

kinh t, li sut l cng c chnh sch v m c NHTW cc

nc s sng ph bin nhm tc ng duy tr d n nh ca

nn kinh t. Vy, iu g s xy ra khi li sut thay i???

* Th trng trong nc:

- Cc quyt nh v tng gim li sut ca FED tc ng trc tip

n sc mnh ca ng USD, qua nh hng mnh n

cc i tc thng mi ca M. Nu FED tng li sut ng

USD nhm kim ch lm pht, v hnh chung lm tng scmnh ca ng USD trn th trng tin t quc t, lm tng

nhp khu, gim xut khu, gim u t vo M.

- mc li sut thp, cc hot ng kinh t c thc y v chi ph

i vay thp, do m ngi tiu dng v cc doanh nghip

tng cng mua bn. Ngc li, li sut cao a n km hm

kinh t v chi ph i vay cao hn.

- c ci nhn tng quan v tc ng ca s bin ng li sut,

hy cng im li qu trnh iu hnh li sut ca FED t

nhng nn 1980 tr li y:

+Thp k 80 ca th k XX

Bc vo nm 1980, nh hng ca cn lc gi du ln th hai(8/1978) ko di kt hp vi s gia tng tiu dng a M

vo cn lm pht hai ch s.. Trc thc t ny, Tng thng

REAGAN thng qua FED thc hin chnh sch tht cht tin
http://www.saga.vn/dictview.aspx?id=641http://www.saga.vn/dictview.aspx?id=641


10/25

t, nng cao li sut nhm ba mc ch: chng lm pht, kch

thch u t nc ngoi vo M v tng gi ng USD. (Thng

5/1981, li sut tn dng lin bang cao ti 16,38% => Lm pht

gim xung cn 6,1%, thu ht u t nc ngoi vo M, vc

dy nhanh chng nn kinh t M, tng gi ng USD nh

lung ti chnh vo t nc ngoi..Tuy nhin, s tht cht

cung ng tin t mt cch khc nghit lm cho nn kinh t M

ri vo giai n suy thoi ln nht k t sau khung hong

thp nin 20, 30. Tht nghip gia tng, tng cu gim xung-3.0% trong na u nm 1982 => FED ni lng cung ng

tin.Li sut chit khu gim t 11,5% xung 9,25%, klo theo

li sut tn dng lin bang gim n 12,28%..Th trng lin

tc bin ng, Nm 1985, M ct gim li sut 3 ln, v n

8/1986, li sut cn 5,5%. S gim li sut nhanh cha tng c

lm bnh trng tn dng tiu dng v u t. Cung ng tin

vt ln mc cao nht trong 16 nm l 16,6%, kinh t tng

trng kh n nh l 3% t nm 85-89. Nm 1988, lm pht

tng do nahan dn M rt tin t chng khon ra chi cho

tiu dng v u t bt ng sn, FED a li sut chit

khu ln 6,5% v 7% vo cui thng 2/1989, li sut lin bangvt ln t 7,57% ln 9,35% => Chinh sch tin t l con dao 2

li. mt mt lm gim pht, thu ht u t nc ngoi, mt


11/25

mt lm cho nn kinh t M chm tng trng, thm ht ngn

sch

+ Thp nin 90 ca th k XX

T nm 1991 n nm 1994, li sut chit khu lin tc c h

kch thch tng trng kinh t M. Nm 1991, FED gim li

sut 7 ln, xung cn 3,5%, li sut lin bang gim xung cn

3%/nm, mc thp nht trong lch s t sau chin tranh th gii

th II => Nn kinh t M t suy thoi tng trng tr li v

t mc 3,7% nm 1994. FED tip tc tng li sut vay chitkhu t 3,5% ln 5,25% (2/1995) hn ch dng vn chy ra

nc ngoi lm cho nng lc vay ca cc ngn hng trung gian

tr nn gim st, vn tc cung ng M1 xung qu thp gy

nguy hi cho tc ss tng trng kinh t=> FED gim li sut

chit khu v thc hin 1 s nghip v mua trn th trng

mNn kinh t M tng i n nh cho n nm 1998, M

buc phi can thip khi nguy c khng hong lan rng ra ton

Chu .Sau 3 ln h li sut t ngy 39/9/1998, tng cng FED

ct gim 0,75% li sut => Nhn chung, trong sut thp k

90, FED iu hnh CSTT tng i tt, nn kinh t t tng

trng lu di.+ Nhng nm u TK XXI

Nn kinh t M khng my sng sa, M ct gim li sut 5 ln

k t 1/2001 (t 6,5% xung 4%) bt chp ni lo ngi v lm


12/25

pht. Tuy nhin ko c tc dng nhiu. Sau s kin ngy

11/9/2001, M ct gim li sut xung cn 3%, ri 2% vo

10/2001 => tc ng n th trng ph Wall( ch s cng

nghip DJ tng 150,09 im, ch s Nasdaq tng 41,43 im

trong phin giao dch ngy 6/11/2001..Ngy 11/12/2001, FED

ct gim li sut ln th 11 xung cn 1,75% v c duy tr

n u thng 11/2002. ngy 6/11/2002, FED tip tc ct gim

li sut xung cn 1,25% (li sut thp nht trong vong 44 nm,

tnh t nm 1958)..Nm 2003, chin tranh Irc lm cho Mng trc nguy c gim pht. kch thch nn kinh t, FED

quyt nh h li sut xung cn 1%( mc li sut thp nht

trong vng 45 nm k t nm 1958)

+ Hin nay, nn kinh t M c nguy c ri vo suy thoi. Ch tch

Cc d tr lin bang M cnh bo tng sn phm quc ni ca M

c th gim trong 6 thng u nm 2008, tc l ri vo suy thoi v

mt l thuyt. V mt l thuyt, nu mt nn kinh t suy gim lin

tc trong hai qu lin tip th c th coi nh vo suy thoi.Ngi

ng u Cc d tr lin bang M (Fed), ng Ben Bernanke khng

dng t "suy thoi", nhng tha nhn rng, bt chp nhng n lc

gii cu ca FED v chnh quyn, cc th trng ti chnh vn angchu p lc ln. Nn kinh t ln nht th gii ang trong mt giai

on u m, vi th trng tn dng gn nh ng bng, khin ngi

tiu dng v cc doanh nghip khng th vay tin, ko cc hot


13/25

ng kinh t co li. Trong khi , lm pht v tht nghip cng tng

cao. Trong mt vi thng u nm va qua, M nhiu ln ct

gim li sut nhm cu nguy nn kinh t.

Ngy 16/3 va qua, Qu D tr Lin bang Hoa K FED quyt nh

h li sut 0,25%, tc t mc 3,5% xung mc 3,25%, gip cc

ngn hng tng kh nng i ph trong tnh hnh ti chnh suy trm

do tnh trng n ng trong lnh vc tn dng a c gy ra v cng

lc Ngn hng u t Bear Stearns, mt trong nhng tr ct u t

ln ca th trng chng khon M, va c cho php bn trnh ph sn vi s bo k ca Qu D tr Lin bang tr gi 30 t

la. Tp on J.P. Morgan Chase, mt ngn hng ln khc ca M,

ng u n lc mua li Bear Stearns ang lm vo tnh trng

kh khn v ti chnh, vi gi 260 triu la trong khi tr gi hi

u nm 2007 ca Bear Stearns ln ti hn 20 t la.

Ngy 18/3, tc l chi 1 ngy ngay sau khi FED tuyn b gim li

sut cho cc khon vay ngn hn ca ngn hng u t t 3,5%

xung cn 3,25%, FED li tip tc gim li sut tin gi ng la

ngn hn xung cn 2,25% - mc thp nht k t thng 2/2005. y

l ln th 6 FED h mc li sut k t thng 9 nm ngoi. ng thi

ct gim li sut ln ny ca FED l hnh ng mi nht ca tchc ny trong series nhng n lc nhm chng s st gim tng

trng ca kinh t M v phc hi nim tin vo h thng ti chnh

ca nc ny. Liu thuc li sut ca FED ngay lp tc lm hi


14/25

sinh th trng tn dng v chng khon M. Cc ngn hng thng

mi tuyn b s gim li sut cho vay, to iu kin cho hng triu

doanh nghip v khch hng tip cn vn vay. Phn khi trc s

ct gim li sut, gi cc loi c phiu ch lc ti th trng M

ng lot tng mc cha tng c trong nm nm qua., ch s Dow

Jones tng 420 im - 3,5% - trong khi ch s Nasdaq tng hn 4%.

Trong khi , ng la sau khi gim ti mc k lc so vi ng

euro phn no ly li gi.

Trong nm nay, FED ct gim li sut c bn USD tngcng 2%, mc ct gim mnh nht k t khi loi li sut ny

tr thnh mt mc tiu ni bt trong chnh sch tin t ca M

vo cui thp nin 1980. Kt qu, t nht ti lc ny, FED

gii quyt m thm c s tan r ca Bear Stearns, tp on

ti chnh ln th 5 Ph Wall. Th trng cng va cho n

nhng thng tin tt lnh v doanh thu v li nhun tt p

ngoi d kin t Goldman Sachs v Lehman Brothers, mt

i gia Ph Wall khc trc tng b cho l c th s i

theo Bear Stearns.

T gia thng 8 nm ngoi, khi cuc khng hong tn dng tiM bt u c nh hng n th trng ton th gii, n

nay, FED h li sut c bn USD tng cng 6 ln v h li

sut chit khu 8 ln. Tnh n thi im ny, cc cng ty ti


15/25

chnh ln nht th gii thua l v thm ht ti sn t nht

195 t USD do c lin quan n nhng khon u t vo hot

ng cho vay a c M.

(Ngoi ra, vic bm tin cho cc ngn hng l mt trong nhng

ng thi khc thng ca FED trong vic i ph vi khng

hong. Tnh n cui thng 3, FED bm tng cng 260 t USD

cho cc ngn hng thng mi thng qua cc khon vay ngn hn.

ng thi ny ca FED nhm gip th trng ti chnh M i ph

vi cuc khng hong ang lm th trng nc ny chao o vnh hng n c cc nn kinh t khc. H qu mi nht ca cuc

khng hong ny l Bear Stearns Cos, ngn hng u t ln th

nm ca M, sut ph sn nu khng c cc tp on ln h tr.

T thng 12/2007 n nay, FED u n t chc cc t u gi

hng tun trn th trng m ca c quan ny cung ng cc

khon vay ngn hn cho ngn hng thng mi. Ban u hn mc

cho mi t u gi l 20 t USD, sau l 30 t USD, nhng t

u thng 3 n nay, FED phi nng hn mc ln 50 t USD.)

Th trng th gii:

- Trong nhng nm qua, li sut thp ti Hoa K kch thch

ngun vn USD dch chuyn sang cc khu vc khc (c th thyr iu ny qua tnh hnh u c bt ng sn ti mt s quc gia

chu ). Nu li sut trong thi gian ti tng mnh, ngun vn s


16/25

chy ngc li v M, v nh th s gy nhng xo trn ln trn

lnh vc ti chnh tin t nhiu khu vc - nht l ti ng .

- ng c vic ct gim li sut ca FED l nhm cu vn th

trng ti chnh cng nh nn kinh t M trc nguy c suy thoi

c cho l rt cn k. Trc ni lo suy thoi ca u tu kinh t

M, TTCK chu u v chu trc tri qua hai ngy en ti,

n nhn thng tin t FED mt cch h hi. Theo TTXVN, th

trng chng khon chu u v chu cng tng mnh. Ti th

trng chu u, ch s FTSE 100 ca Anh tng 3,12%, DAX cac tng 3,36% v CAC-40 ca Php tng 3,18%. Ti chu , ch

s Nikkei ca Nht Bn tng trung bnh 1,50%, trong khi ch s

Hang Seng ca Hong Kong tng 1,4%.

- Chnh ng thi ca FED to ra nim tin cho cc nh u t t

hai chu lc ny rng chnh ph M s bng mi cch cu vn th

trng ti chnh m rng hn l nn kinh t nc ny cng ging

nh nhng ln ct gim li sut trc ca FED (nm 2001). Tuy

nhin, theo nhn nh ca cc chuyn gia, s phc hi ca TTCK

chu v chu u c th s ch l s khi phc tm thi (rally) trn

con ng suy thoi (ch s CK ca phn ln cc TTCK ln

gim 20% so vi mc cao nht gn y). Nu th trng M tip tcgim trong thi gian ti th cc th trng khc tt gim l iu kh

trnh khi, c bit l th trng ca cc nc pht trin.

Tuy nhin, cc nc mi ni nh n , Trung Quc v mt s


17/25

nc xut khu du m th khng b nh hng nhiu v vn ang

trn pht trin. Cc nc ang pht trin (trong c Vit Nam)

ngy cng ph thuc nhiu hn vo xut khu trong pht trin kinh

t (39% nm 1997 tng ln 51% nm 2006) cng s kh c th trnh

khi b nh hng bi suy thoi kinh t, tuy nhin, d c b nh

hng i chng na, cng s khng n mc khng khong ti

chnh nh din ra cui thp k 90 NA.

Mt phn v cc nc ny c kinh nghim hn sau khng hong,

phn khc v d tr ngoi t t cc nc ny l rt ln do qu trnhtch lu t xut khu trong nhng nm phc hi mnh m gn

y.

* Th trng Vit Nam:

- M ct gim li sut, ng la s st gi, v l yu t s y

mnh lm pht ti Vit Nam thm na.

- Thng thng khi M gim LS USD u ko LS trn th trng

gim theo. Ln ny cng th nhng li l ngoi l vi VN. Ngi

gi USD c th yn tm v trong thi gian ti LS USD cha gim

theo. Cc ngn hng trong nc ang chy ua tng LS USD p

ng nhu cu vay vn USD ca doanh nghip tng cao v duy tr kh

nng thanh ton. Hin LS huy ng USD k hn 12 thng caVietcombank TP.HCM l 4,65%/nm, Ngn hng Chu

5,8%/nm, Sacombank 5,9%/nm, Eximbank 6%/nm, ng l

6,2%/nm... cao hn nhiu so vi LS USD trn th trng th gii.


18/25

- Thng thng LS thp cng c ngha gi USD khng cn hp dn,

cc nh u t s chuyn sang gi nhng ti sn khc sinh li cao

hn, cng lm cho USD gim gi so vi mt s ng tin, trong

c VND. Trng hp ny xy ra cng to thm sc p ln t gi

VND/USD vn ang gy kh khn cho nh xut khu VN.

Th nhng ln gim LS ny USD khng yu thm m tng li, d

ch l phn ng nht thi. Ngay khi thng tin v vic FED gim LS

USD, gi USD ng lot tng so vi nhiu ng tin ch cht

khc nh euro, bng Anh, yen Nht... v nh vy USD cng tnggi so vi VND. Nu xu hng ny ko di th sc p phi cho

VND ln gi so vi USD s gim i.

Din bin ny cho thy c th thi gian qua th trng nh gi

qu thp USD. Cc bin php cu nn kinh t M c cng b,

ngi ta mi thy rng nn kinh t ln nht th gii ny c th phc

hi nhanh. V vy, cc doanh nghip trong nc nn cn nhc, ng

ngh rng thi ca USD mnh qua m phi tnh ton c trc c

sau.

III.Phng thc giao dch.

1.Gi tin v nhn tin gi cc ngn hng khc.Cc ngn hng d tr Lin bang c th gi tin v nhn tin gi

cc ngn hng d tr Lin bang khc.Cc khon u t ny l ngn


19/25

hn di 1 nm , li sut p dng theo quan h cung - cu vn ca

cc ngn hng d tr Lin bang.

C 2 loi tin gi:

_Tin gi c k hn :1 thng, 2 thng, 3 thng, 6 thng, 9 thng, 12

thng, 18 thng, 24 thng

_ Tin gi khng k hn.

Hnh thc tin gi c th gim thiu nhng th tc cht ch ca

mt hp ng vay vn, v vy trong mt s trng hp cc ngn

hng d tr Lin bang thng dng hnh thc tin gi. Tuy nhanhgn, nhng hnh thc ny cha ng nhiu ri ro, c bit trong

nhng thi im trong h thng c du hiu mt kh nng thanh

khon.

2.Vay v cho vay cc ngn hng khc.

Cng mt thi im, ngn hng D tr Lin bang ny tha vnnhng ngn hng D tr Lin bang khc li thiu vn, gii quyt

tnh hnh, cc ngn hng D tr Lin bang c th vay/cho vay (c

ni t hoc ngoi t) ln nhau. Th trng NH i vay v cho vay

(thc cht l mua bn vn gia cc NH) c gi l th trng tin

t lin NH. Li sut trn lin ngn hng thng l li sut tha

thun, thay i rt linh hot ty din bin cung cu. Tuy nhin, li

sut ny c s nh hng ln ca 3 ngn hng d tr Lin bang ln

nht l Ngn hng ca New York, Chicago v San Francisco, c

bit l ngn hng New York.


20/25

C hai loi cho vay:

_Cho vay b p do thiu ht thanh ton trong thanh ton b tr:

thi hn t 1 n 5 ngy.

_Cho vay m rng tn dng ngn hn: thi hn do hai bn thng

nht.

Cho vay ngn hn ca ph thuc:

+Nhu cu vn p ng thiu ht thanh ton b tr ca cc ngnhng d tr Lin bang.

+ Yu cu chnh sch tin t ca Fed trong tng thi k.

Nhu cu m rng tn dng ca ngn hng: Thi hn cho vay

thanh ton l rt ngn( thp nht 1 ngy)( thi hn ny do cc thnh

vin vay v cho vay tho thun) v li sut c hnh thnh theo

quan h cung cu trn th trng.

Kh nng cho vay ca cc ngn hng d tr Lin bang ph thuc

vo kh nng chi tr trong thanh ton ca cc ngn hng.

Nghip v lin ngn hng gip cho cc ngn hng D tr Lin bang

tha vn gii ta vn nhanh, kim c li nhun b p tr li

tin gi, mt khc cc ngn hng D tr Lin bang thiu vn c

lng vn cn thit tip tc hot ng tn dng v thanh ton chi

tr kp thi theo yu cu khch hng. Nhng lc cn thit, c bit

l trong nhng thi k nn kinh t M tng trng nng, nh th


21/25

trng lin ngn hng c th h tr cc ngn hng D tr Lin bang

thanh khon ln nhau, gim p lc tng li sut huy ng thu ht

vn tc thi.

Do tnh cht, tin vay t lin ngn hng l ngun khng n nh, rt

d bin ng. V vy, cc ngn hng D tr Lin bang thng ch

huy ng vn trn th trng lin ngn hng gii quyt vn

thanh khon vi k hn qua m (over night - O/N).

3.Mua_ bn cc giy t c gi.

Cc d tr Lin bang M Fed mua _bn cc giy t c gi trn th

trng thng qua cc hnh thc:

_Mua_ bn hn (giao dch mua t):

Trong giao dch ny, Cc d tr lin bang mua li tri phiu chnh

ph v cung cp giy bc mi vo ti khon ca ngi giao dich t

ti Fed. Bi hot ng ny l mua t nn tng cung tin t lu dinhng khi tri phiu ht hn khon li vn c thu, thng thng

l 12-18 thng.

T nhng nm 1980, Cc d tr lin bang cng bn quyn mua tri

phiu chnh ph mc li sut cao. Vic bn quyn mua ny gim

ngun cung tin t bi cc nh giao dch u tin s b khu tr ti

khon d tr ca h t ti Fed, do m qu trnh to tin lu

thng b hn ch.

_ Mua_bn k hn ( tho thun mua li):


22/25

Thc cht hot ng ny l cho vay hoc i vay c th chp.

m bo nhng thay i ngun cung tin t theo chu k hoc tm

thi, giao dch th trng ca Ngn hng d tr lin bang New York

tham gia tho thun mua li (repo) vi cc nh giao dch u tin.

Cc mua bn ch yu l cc khon cho vay ngn hn, c m bo

ca Fed. Trong ngy giao dch, Fed s t tin vo ti khon ca

ngi giao dch v nhn th chp (l cc giy t chng nhn s hu

nh c phiu, tri phiu). Khi ht hn giao dch, qu trnh din ra

ngc li Fed hon li chng khon v nhn li tin cng khon li.Thi hn giao dch c th thay i t 1 ngy ti 65 ngy, phn ln

l giao dch cho vay qua m v 14 ngy.

Bi cc giao dch lm tng qu d tr ca ngn hng trong thi

gian ngn, chng tng ngun cung tin t. Hiu qu ca hot ng

ny l tm thi bi cc giao dch s o hn , tc dng di hn l d

tr ngn hng gim i bi li sut ca giao dch.

Trong giao dch tho thun bn li( reverse repo), Fed s vay tin t

nhng ngi giao dch u tin bng cch t cc cc chng khon

chnh ph.Khi giao dch o hn, Fed s hon tr tin v cc khon

li.

IV, Vai tr cu th trng lin ngn hng


23/25

*Cc d tr lin bang M da trn thng tin ca th

trng tin t lin ngn hng chun bnh cho nn

kinh t.

Thng qua s bin ng ca li sut qua cc nm

T l li sut ca M thp nht vo nm 2003, sau h v

tng dn ln n mc nh im 5,25% vo na cui nm 2006 cho

n ngy 18/9/2007 v s st gim li sut lin tc trong nhng

thng cui nm 2007 va qua l du hiu ngy mt r hn v suy

thoi kinh t.Tnh hnh lm pht qua hai thng u nm 2008 cao hn bao

gi ht v s trt dc lin tc so vi ng EUR t cui nm 2007

n nay cng l nhng tn hiu bo nguy cho nn kinh t M.

....

Cc du hiu trn cho thy tnh hnh kinh t M sp bc vo

thi k khng hong v FED phi c nhng chnh sch tc ng vo

th trng lin ngn hng khng ch cuc khng hong ny.

* TTTT lin ngn hng tip nhn v truyn ti tc ng ca

cc chnh sch tin t n nn kinh t.

Ngn hng d tr lin bang M FED ngy 18/3 (rng sng

19/3 gi VN) quyt nh ct gim li sut cc khon vay nnggia cc NH thng mi t 3,0% xung 2,25%.

Quyt nh trn ca FED ngay lp tc c hiu qu khi mt

lot ngn hng thng mi M ra thng bo ct gim li sut cho


24/25

vay t 6,0% xung 5,25%, gip hng triu doanh nghip v khch

hng tip cn d hn vi nhng ngun vn vay m h ang rt cn.

Li sut gim cng kch thch s vay tin tng chi tiu v u t

ca cc doanh nghip v ngi tiu dng M.

Th trng chng khon ton cu ngay lp tc "phn chn"

trc quyt nh ca FED. Gi cc loi c phiu ch lc ti th

trng M trong ngy 18/3 ng lot tng mc cha tng c

trong 5 nm qua. Ch trong vi pht u tin sau khi FED thng bo

quyt nh, c phiu Dow Jones tng hn 100 im v n cuingy tng tng cng 420,41 im (3,5%), ln 12.392,66 im.

Th trng chng khon quc t, nht l th trng chu u v

chu , cng ng lot chu tc ng theo hng tch cc do quyt

nh ca FED. Ti th trng chu u, c phiu FTSE 100 ca Anh

tng 3,12%, c phiu DAX ca c tng 3,36% v c phiu CAC-

40 ca Php tng 3,18%. Ti chu , c phiu Nikkei ca Nht Bn

tng trung bnh 1,50% trong khi c phiu Hang Seng ca Hng

Cng tng 1,4%.

ng USD cng "c li" nh quyt nh ca FED. Gi

ng tin ang trn st gim th thm ny trong ngy 18/3 cng

nhch ln so vi cc ng ngoi t mnh khc.

Cc D tr lin bang M (FED) va thng bo s a ra lu

thng thm 60 t USD trong thng 3 nhm i ph vi cuc khng

hong tn dng. y l ln th su t cui nm 2007 n nay, FED


25/25

phi s dng bin php ny. Tnh t thng 12/2007 n nay, FED

6 ln bm tin cho h thng ngn hng qua hnh thc cho cc nh

bng vay ngn hn vi tng gi tr 160 t USD.

C quan ny hy vng ngun cung tin mt di do s gip cc

nh bng th lng cho vay kch cu, ng thi ngn chn cc

ngn hng sit cht tn dng, mt ng thi c th khin nn kinh t

M vn ang tng trng chm li cng thm kh khn.

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