the$universe$in$a$(pre.y$big)$boxsitn.hms.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/... · if we broke...

The$Universe$in$a$(Pre.y$Big)$Box:From$Cells$to$Galaxies$Using$Super?Computers

Part%II

%10%to%10%million%meters:%Weather,$Climate$and$the$Earth$System$in$Supercomputers

Michael$Long

Thursday, October 25, 12

Essen%ally,*all*models*are*wrong,*but*some*are*useful. !"George"Box,"1987


Tonight:$Mostly$cloudy,$with$a$low$around$44.$Southeast$wind$around$5$mph


ENIAC:$U.S.$Army$Photo/K.$Kempf,$"Historical$Monograph:$Electronic$Computers$Within$the$Ordnance$Corps"Thursday, October 25, 12

Tonight:$Mostly$cloudy,$with$a$low$around$44.$Southeast$wind$around$5$mph


Photo:$Jon$McLean/JMP$Studio$LLCThursday, October 25, 12

Atmosphere*Rendered*as*a*30D*grid


Atmosphere*Rendered*as*a*30D*grid

Image"adapted"from"Wikicommons


If we broke the whole atmosphere into One cubic foot blocks, (150,000,000,000,000,000,000 blocks)

a basic weather prediction One second into the future:

iPhone:World’s Fastest Computer:

(16 million times as powerful as an iPhone)

5 million years100 days

Note:$TheoreUcal$Fastest$Speed


If we broke the whole atmosphere into One cubic YARD blocks, (19,000,000,000,000,000,000 blocks)

a basic weather prediction One second into the future:

14 days


World’s Fastest Computer:


If we broke the whole atmosphere into 1000 cubic feet blocks, a basic weather prediction One second into the future:

World’s Fastest Computer:2.5 hours



10 seconds



If we broke the whole atmosphere into 1,000,000 cubic feet blocks, a basic weather prediction One second into the future:


10 seconds



If we broke the whole atmosphere into 1,000,000 cubic feet blocks, a basic weather prediction 15 MINUTES into the future:


Current Weather Forecast Models:

On$a$moderately$size$computer$systemApproximately$1000$Parallel$Processors

40-day future prediction in one day


Questions?


Courtesy:$NASAThursday, October 25, 12

Courtesy:$NOAA/NaUonal$Hurricane$CenterThursday, October 25, 12

the$universe$in$a$(pre.y$big)$boxsitn.hms.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/... · if we broke...

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