Theory & CausationTheory & Causation

Theory & ScienceTheory & Science

Either one can come firstEither one can come first Criteria for a good theoryCriteria for a good theory Consistent with the factsConsistent with the facts Logical—avoid circular reasoningLogical—avoid circular reasoning ParisimoniousParisimonious Empirical investigationEmpirical investigation Able to predictAble to predict

Empirical researchEmpirical research

Operationalization—defining ideasOperationalization—defining ideas Example: social class—income level, Example: social class—income level,

education—other?education—other? Neighborhoods and poverty--% on welfare, Neighborhoods and poverty--% on welfare,

% rental/home ownership, average monthly % rental/home ownership, average monthly rentrent

Other variables—health and mental health Other variables—health and mental health indicators, # fires, emergencies, etc.indicators, # fires, emergencies, etc.

OperationalizationOperationalization

Operational definitionOperational definition Measurement of : personality traits, Measurement of : personality traits,

attitudes, intelligence, judgment, attitudes, intelligence, judgment, punitiveness toward criminals, “just world,” punitiveness toward criminals, “just world,” toward povertytoward poverty

HypothesesHypotheses Shaw and McKay’s researchShaw and McKay’s research

Hypotheses Hypotheses

Social problems related to city areasSocial problems related to city areas Conclusion: higher rates of delinquency due Conclusion: higher rates of delinquency due

to community factors rather than race or to community factors rather than race or nationalitynationality

ParadigmParadigm

Paradigm is a frame of reference, Paradigm is a frame of reference, fundamental modelfundamental model

Improvement (gathering of information, Improvement (gathering of information, research) of an existing paradigm is referred research) of an existing paradigm is referred to as “normal science” (Kuhn)to as “normal science” (Kuhn)

Important scientific progress may be the Important scientific progress may be the result of a “scientific revolution”result of a “scientific revolution”

Scientific revolutionsScientific revolutions

Data is noted that does not fit the paradigmData is noted that does not fit the paradigm Can lead to a new paradigm with new Can lead to a new paradigm with new

theoriestheories Newtonian physics and the theory of Newtonian physics and the theory of

relativityrelativity Does the concept of a paradigm apply to the Does the concept of a paradigm apply to the

study of crime?study of crime?

Paradigms in CJParadigms in CJ

Free will vs. determinism (positivism)Free will vs. determinism (positivism) Deterrence vs. psychological and Deterrence vs. psychological and

sociological theoriessociological theories Nature vs. nurture, biological vs. Nature vs. nurture, biological vs.

environmental explanationsenvironmental explanations Psychological vs. sociological theoriesPsychological vs. sociological theories In criminology, paradigms may come and goIn criminology, paradigms may come and go

CausationCausation

Necessary and sufficientNecessary and sufficient Necessary cause: something must be Necessary cause: something must be

present if the effect is to follow—a person present if the effect is to follow—a person must be charged if he is to be convictedmust be charged if he is to be convicted

But that is not enoughBut that is not enough Sufficient—condition is present and Sufficient—condition is present and

guarantees the effect—pleading guilty is guarantees the effect—pleading guilty is enough to get a conditionenough to get a condition

Necessary and sufficientNecessary and sufficient

Condition has to be present and always Condition has to be present and always leads to the resultleads to the result

Generally do not find necessary and Generally do not find necessary and sufficient conditions in criminal justicesufficient conditions in criminal justice

Criteria for a causeCriteria for a cause

1. temporal nature—cause always comes 1. temporal nature—cause always comes before the effectbefore the effect

Rise in crime in the late 50s to mid 80s—Rise in crime in the late 50s to mid 80s—what happened prior to the increase?what happened prior to the increase?

2. the two variables must be related 2. the two variables must be related systematicallysystematically

Use of correlationUse of correlation Linear relationshipsLinear relationships

CriteriaCriteria

Must not be explained away by a 3Must not be explained away by a 3rdrd variable variable Storks and babiesStorks and babies If we find a relationship between child abuse If we find a relationship between child abuse

and crime, are there other variables that and crime, are there other variables that have an effect on these 2 variableshave an effect on these 2 variables

Head injuries among serious violent Head injuries among serious violent offenders—what might explain the offenders—what might explain the relationship?relationship?

Understanding relationshipsUnderstanding relationships

Use of Venn DiagramsUse of Venn Diagrams Drug and alcohol and marijuana use and Drug and alcohol and marijuana use and

crimecrime Child abuse and child abusersChild abuse and child abusers Sexual victimization and sexual abuseSexual victimization and sexual abuse Overlapping relationshipsOverlapping relationships Understanding the degree of overlapUnderstanding the degree of overlap

Extent of relationshipExtent of relationship

Use of child abuse and later delinquency Use of child abuse and later delinquency exampleexample

Retrospective and prospective studiesRetrospective and prospective studies Lack of experimental studies and need for Lack of experimental studies and need for

ex post facto studiesex post facto studies Comparisons of groups, need for base ratesComparisons of groups, need for base rates

And norm groupsAnd norm groups

Relationships and theoriesRelationships and theories

If child abuse is related to delinquency, why If child abuse is related to delinquency, why might that be?might that be?

Why might sexual victimization be related to Why might sexual victimization be related to later sexual offending in adolescents?later sexual offending in adolescents?

Can we relate the findings to existing Can we relate the findings to existing theories?theories?

List sample theoriesList sample theories

ProbabilityProbability

Probabilistic nature of hypotheses, patterns Probabilistic nature of hypotheses, patterns and theoriesand theories

Statistical conclusionsStatistical conclusions Statistical significance of conclusions vs. Statistical significance of conclusions vs.

practical or clinical significancepractical or clinical significance Ex: intelligence and birth orderEx: intelligence and birth order Practical implications—not much, but Practical implications—not much, but

theoretical significancetheoretical significance

ProbabilityProbability

Find relationships, seldom find “causes”Find relationships, seldom find “causes” Discuss probabilities, but do not “prove”Discuss probabilities, but do not “prove” We use terms such as “indicate” or We use terms such as “indicate” or

“suggest” or “seems likely that…”“suggest” or “seems likely that…”