then now next ... ipsos' 40th anniversary
TRANSCRIPT
© 2015 Ipsos.
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
Ben Page Chief Executive Ipsos MORI
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
Agenda Kate Gibson Vice President, Corporate Responsibility, Intercontinental Hotels Group
Ravi Mattu Technology, Media and Telecoms News Editor, The Financial Times
David Aaranovitch Times columnist and broadcaster
Didier Truchot Founder of Ipsos
Ben Page Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Q&A
© 2015 Ipsos.
In 1975
Microsoft was started
Margaret Thatcher assumed leadership of the Conservative Party
David Beckham was born
The first British climbers got to the summit of Mount Everest
One of these two dudes started Ipsos
© 2015 Ipsos.
Didier Truchot Founder of Ipsos
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
Ben Page Chief Executive Ipsos MORI
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
What worried us in the 1970s doesn’t worry us any more % agree
1975 2015
Unemployment
NHS
Inflation/Prices
Trade Unions
Immigration
© 2015 Ipsos.
Homosexual couples should be able to live together openly
89% 2014
40% 1975
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Some things change… some don’t ...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?
1983 2013
The police 61%
65%
Civil Servants 53%
Government ministers 22%
Politicians generally 18%
25% 18% 16%
© 2015 Ipsos.
Europe
5 June 1975
67% of voters supported UK remaining a member of the EEC in the last referendum
In June 2015
66% also said they would vote to remain in the EU
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Most predictions are wrong
When a century has passed all thought of our so-called speaking pictures will have been abandoned. It will never be possible to synchronize the sound with the picture – Oscar winning director D.W. Griffith, 1924
© 2015 Ipsos.
Predicted
Actual
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© 2015 Ipsos.
Taking a hammering…
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The Exit Poll did extraordinarily well – again…
Conservative Party
Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
SNP
UKIP
Green Party
Others
Exit poll - 316 Result - 331
Exit poll - 239 Result - 232
Exit poll - 10 Result - 8
Exit poll - 58 Result - 56
Exit poll - 2 Result - 1
Exit poll - 2 Result - 1
Exit poll - 23 Result - 21
Asking what did do, rather than what will…
© 2015 Ipsos.
Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away from actual – except Labour, overestimated
Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result
Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5
36% Conservative
35% Labour
8% Lib Dem
11% UKIP
5% Green
37.7% Conservative
31.2% Labour
8.1% Lib Dem
12.9% UKIP
3.8% Green
© 2015 Ipsos.
We got highest Conservative share and lowest error on this key calculation of who would be largest party…
© 2015 Ipsos.
trends 7 #Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
1. Unrelenting growth and urbanisation
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
Number of products in the average supermarket
47,000 2015
8,948 1975
© 2015 Ipsos.
Global population and global middle class population
2009 6.8 billion 1.8 billion
2020 7.7 billion 3.2 billion
2030 8.3 billion 4.9 billion
© 2015 Ipsos.
By 2030 66% of the world’s middle classes will be living in Asia
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1.5 million a month (a city the size of Prague)
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© 2015 Ipsos.
2. Uneven growth and growing inequality
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
78%
48%
47%
46%
41%
41%
41%
37%
34%
32%
30%
30%
30%
27%
26%
24%
22%
21%
16%
16%
12%
China
Brazil
Turkey
India
Japan
Russia
S Africa
Total
Argentina
Sweden
Australia
Germany
Poland
S Korea
US
Canada
GB
Italy
Spain
France
Belgium
% of under 30s who expect life to be better
Growing opportunity? Only young in developing countries are remotely optimistic
© 2015 Ipsos.
Average house prices
£186,662
£10,846
1975 2014
£59,700,000
£350,000
Football transfer records
© 2015 Ipsos.
Average house prices £186,662
£10,846
1975 2014
£59,700,000
£2,994,415
Football transfer records
© 2015 Ipsos.
3. Sweeping technological change – computing power/ connectedness
#Ipsos40years
© 2015 Ipsos.
Life is more comfortable compared to the 1970s
1975 2015
96% 96%
71%
43%
Washing machine
ownership
Central heating
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Moore’s law held up – your teenager’s game has more computing power than the most powerful US military computer in 1999
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A recent change
1975 2013
Internet usage (users per 100 people)
0
90
1990
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Everyone’s got a mobile phone Mobile phone usage - Subscriptions per 100 adults
1975 2013 1985
125%
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Our reading habits have changed Readership of print newspapers
1981 2010
41%
72%
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Digital/ terrestrial
TV
Mobile phone
ads
Mobile phone aps
Social networking
profiles
In game advertising
PR
Online video
Homepage takeovers
Search ads
Direct marketing
Micro blogging
Satellite TV
Online radio
Digital radio
Press
Email marketing
Sponsorship
Analogue radio
Augmented reality
Viral video
Direct mail
Digital Billboards
Posters
Online banners
Cinema
Microsites
Now
Direct marketing
TV/ Cinema
Radio Press
Posters/ Billboards
70s
© 2015 Ipsos.
© 2015 Ipsos.
LESS
ASKING DATA COLLECTION OUT OF CONTEXT PROCESS SLOW ONE OFF ONE SHOT LINEAR MONOLOGUE AVERAGE ISOLATION CONSUMER OUTSIDE SILO INACCESSIBLE SLOW DOWN TRANSPIRATION
OBSERVATION DATA CONNECT + SELECT IN CONTEXT AUTOMATION FAST / REAL TIME ONGOING RAPID ITERATION FLUID & DYNAMIC DIALOGUE INDIVIDUAL CO-CREATION CONSUMER INSIDE INTEGRATED ACCESSIBLE & INTUITIVE ACCELERATOR INSPIRATION
MORE
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4. Health revolution
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5. Rise of the individual and decline of violence
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Proportion of one-parent families
22% 2015
10% 1975
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Less dangerous - England & Wales murder rate per million people
9.2 9
1975 2014
Harold Shipman 172 murders
© 2015 Ipsos.
Our kids are no longer revolting Ever smoked, drunk alcohol, taken drugs: 2005-2012
16%
28%
2005 2013
23%
43% 40%
58%
Drank alcohol
Smoked
Taken drugs
© 2015 Ipsos.
And not just in survey data
Numbers of first time entrants to the criminal justice
system aged 10-17
Under 18 conception rate in England and Wales
(per thousand)
2003 2013 1998 2012
© 2015 Ipsos.
6. Cultural convergence and increasing extremes
© 2015 Ipsos.
Counter - enlightenment? Is religion uniting or dividing the world?
© 2015 Ipsos.
Most people in the world today identify with a religion
98%
94%
90%
89%
88%
85%
84%
82%
80%
74%
71%
67%
62%
61%
61%
58%
57%
55%
53%
53%
52%
India
Turkey
S Africa
Brazil
Poland
Argentina
US
Russia
Italy
Canada
Total
Australia
Germany
Belgium
Spain
S Korea
GB
Japan
France
Sweden
China
© 2015 Ipsos.
% Expected change in population size 2010 - 2050
Muslims Christians Hindus Folk religions
73
35 34
Jews
11 16
By 2050, there will be near parity between Muslims and Christians, possibly for the first time in history
© 2015 Ipsos.
7. Rights revolution: public opinion as revolutionary force #Ipsos40years
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© 2015 Ipsos.
Some evidence we are actually getting happier Fairly or very satisfied
1975 2014
94%
86%
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On many measures things are far better than 1975
© 2015 Ipsos.
Even if we don’t think so
85%
75%
74%
72%
70%
70%
69%
67%
66%
65%
64%
63%
62%
61%
60%
60%
59%
54%
48%
43%
35%
Turkey
China
S Africa
India
Italy
Brazil
US
Australia
Russia
Poland
Total
Belgium
Argentina
GB
France
S Korea
Canada
Germany
Spain
Japan
Sweden
People led happier lives in the old days when they had fewer problems to cope with
© 2015 Ipsos.
Some dimensions of uncertainty:
Incremental Rapid
Sustainable Chaotic
Strong Weak
Forward Reverse
Globalised Localised
Climate change
Urbanisation
Infection/ Pathogen Control
Globalisation
Conflict
Kate Gibson Vice President, Corporate Responsibility, Intercontinental Hotels Group
#Ipsos40years
Ravi Mattu Technology, Media and Telecoms News Editor The Financial Times
#Ipsos40years
David Aaranovitch Times columnist and broadcaster
#Ipsos40years
Q&A
#Ipsos40years
#Ipsos40years