The Worst Crime Against All Humanity Changing Earths Climate The climate crime is much worse than ecological debt. It is the worst injustice ever and it is NOW. It is the crime of all time. Part One What is the evidence? Part Two How long have governments known? has already been denied! The Right to Survive PARTONEPARTONE EVIDENCEEVIDENCE Todays committed global warming and climate change is the worst ever crime against humanity and against all Humanity. The Crime of All Time 17/11/10 Emitting global warming greenhouse gases is like shooting burning arrows at the future. The Crime of All Time Committed global warming? Evidence for the Crime of All Time Due to the inertia of the planetary climate system, it takes about 30 years for emissions to register as a surface temperature increase. Todays global temperature increase is committed to double - even without any more emissions. What is committed temperature increase? Year Adapted from IPCC Global average temperature Global CO2 emissions rapidly cut to virtual zero 30 year heat lag Doubled temperature increase Evidence for the Crime of All Time The temperature increase we must look at to assess impacts is at least 1.6C and that is a terrible crime. 0.8C 1.6C Todays temperature increase Todays absolute commitment Staying on todays business as usual scenario, and with no new UN treaty, where are we headed? IPCC 2007 global average temperature increase from pre-industrial Evidence for the Crime of All Time 1.5C by C by 2050 Global emissions are tracking the IPCCs worst case scenario (A1F1). The Crime of the Industrialized Nations Evidence for the Crime of All Time UNFCCC Website From the UN FCCC Secretariat website Evidence for the Crime of All Time A world under stress UNFCCC Secretariat Evidence for the Crime of All Time UNFCCC Secretariat Evidence for the Crime of All Time Food security Policy Implications of Finding that Climate Change is a Crime Against Humanity and Against All Humanity Force industrialized nations to act Demand Accountability The Crime of All Time Its his planet and his climate. Climate-vulnerable developing nations could use international law to break the current deadlock in the intergovernmental negotiations on climate change by taking industrialised nations to court. Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development, 4 October 2010 The Best Hope to Get Industrialized Nations to Stop Catastrophic Greenhouse Pollution The Crime of All Time We demand the creation of an International Tribunal of Climate and Environmental Justice that has the legally binding capacity to prevent, judge, and punish those states, companies, and individuals that pollute and cause climate change by their actions or omissions. 2010 Cochabamba Peoples Climate Agreement International Climate Justice Tribunal The Crime of All Time Estimated deaths due to climate change, in 2000 IPCC 2007 Evidence for the Crime of All Time Committed global warming today is double 2000 global warming. 2C is three times 2000 global warming. The trend of the climate change killing is already established by people already dying All the deaths, deprivation and suffering of the developing world are being MULTIPLIED Evidence for the Crime of All Time The Earths climate supports our water and food supplies. The huge number of people especially children suffering and dying from malnutrition, starvation, disease, lack of water, and natural disasters is right now being multiplied. Climate change multiplies all of these impacts. Changing the climate multiplies all of the human rights abuses and deprivations of the economically oppressed and vulnerable. Children (in all regions) are most vulnerable to all impacts of global climate change. The Crime Of All Time Changing the Planets Climate Decreases water security Decreases food security Decreases health security Decreases civil security And diminishes the future of humanity The Crime of All Time The Crime of the Industrialized Nations This presentations relies solely on government reports like the IPCC assessments as documented proof of the worst ever Crime Against Humanity The Crime of the Industrialized Nations GDP Greenhouse gas emissions Todays Great Offense Against Humanity This situation is long-standing common knowledge. Child mortality Third World debt$2.9 trillion Daily payments$100 million (World Bank 2008 ) 1.refuse to acknowledge that we are beyond dangerous climate interference (1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), or that a state of planetary emergency exists 2.aim for a catastrophic global average temperature increase target of 2.0C 3.have known for at least a decade the science of catastrophic global climate change and that a 2.0C temperature increase (indeed less) is catastrophic for the Global South 4.have ignored the impacts on water, food, and health security in the vulnerable Global South 5.ignore the greatest disastrous and catastrophic dangers from global climate change for the survival of human populations and all future generations 6.assume that over the short term, they will gain from global warming of up to 2.0C while the Global South will suffer disastrous losses 7.have done nothing to mitigate the massive inevitable losses of the most climate change vulnerable populations, numbering over a billion The Crime of the Industrialized Nations Industrialized Nations: The 2C target is a thoroughly documented crime against humanity. In 2009, against the submissions of the most climate change vulnerable nations, the industrialized nations stuck to their longstanding 2.0C temperature increase policy target, by means of the Copenhagen Accord. The Crime of the Industrialized Nations 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The EU 2 C climate policy adopted in 1996 a level that scientists say will avoid the worst consequences . 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity But even below this level climate change will have significant impacts. Many poor developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change but also have the least resources to cope with it. From the EU Climate Change Site 2010 Maximum 1.0C increase above pre-industrial levels Increases beyond this may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage. 2.0C too dangerous increase above pre-industrial entails unacceptably high ecosystem and societal risk. we must expect that in many places in the world there will be a crisis in the world food supply and ecosystems and the corresponding disruption of socio-economic systems and a loss of several islands WMO/ICSU/UNEP Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG) analysis of "targets and indicators" for climate change `(IPCC precursor) Vellinga, P. and R. Swart (1990), "The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy", pp in J. Jager and H.L.Ferguson (Eds) (1990), Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proceedings of the Second World Climate Conference, World Meteorological Organisation. Cambridge University Press UN Position for Climate Safety is 1.0C 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2004 EU recognizes that 2C would already imply significant impacts on ecosystems and water resources.... 2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October EU The 2.0C limit cannot be considered as safe, as severe impacts are likely to occur increasingly as the global mean temperature rise approaches 2.0C above pre-industrial levels. Changes in extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events will largely shape future climate change impacts. In particular significant impacts are expected on species, ecosystems, water resources, low latitude agriculture and small island states. 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The EU has acknowledged that its C policy target is not safe and is catastrophic to the most climate change vulnerable populations. European Union and the 2C Target Food security is not acknowledged as a climate change danger in climate change policy making. For example, it is not listed under the IPCC Climate Science Reasons for Concern that determine policy. But it is one of the dangers interfering with the climate system specified in the 1992 UNFCCC ! Food Security Not Protected by the 2C Limit 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The IPCC has never stated that 2 C is safe - or dangerous. 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2C Climate change is already increasing extreme weather impacts at todays +0.8C! Extreme weather (heat waves, droughts, floods) is the most damaging impact to both agriculture and human health. It is now more likely than not that human activity has contributed to observed increases in heat waves, intense precipitation events, and the intensity of tropical cyclones. IPCC Reasons For Concern, 2007 Risk of Extreme Weather Events 1.5C Commitment is 1.6 C. Policy is 2 C. More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation has contributed to changes in drought. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years... heat waves have become more frequent. 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Heat Waves and Droughts are Already Increasing ! IPCC 2007 Commitment is 1.6 C. Policy is 2 C. The 2007 IPCC Assessment 17/11/10 Corn Rice 2007 IPCC C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security in the Tropics at +1.0C Todays committed global average temperature increase according to climate science. Committed global average temperature increase by policy target of industrialized nations. Global average temperature increase from pre-industrial Committed temperature increase from combined pledges (Carbon Tracker). 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2007 Adapted from IPCC 2007 17/11/10 IPCC Chart of Impacts (impacts start where the text starts) Water Security Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes. Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress. 2 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Complex localized negative impacts on Smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers. Tendency for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes. Increased coral bleaching. Most corals bleached. Tendency for some cereal productivity to increase at mid-and high latitudes. This is almost all the food production in the most vulnerable regions! 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity FOOD SECURITY CLIMATE DEATHS CLIMATE REFUGEES Increased damage from floods and storms. Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year. 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Increasing burden from Increased morbidity and mortality from malnutrition diarrheal disease cardio-respiratory problems infectious diseases heat waves floods droughts 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity malnutrition diarrheal disease cardio-respiratory infectious diseases heat waves floods droughts floods storms Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year Less cereal productivity in low latitudes Less food from smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishers in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes Less water availability Increasing drought Today Increased morbidity and mortality from: Combined cumulative toll of human suffering and death Global temperature change from pre-industrial Populations Affected by Losses of Food and Water 250 Million 1.2 Billion 80 Million 20% GDP 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2007 Today 600 Million 1 Billion 180 Million 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity According to the IPCCs highly conservative figures, at a 2C global average temperature increase, an additional 1.5 billion people will be deprived of food and water almost all of them in the developing nations. Terrible though they are, for many reasons these IPCC estimates of regional climate change mortalities are not underestimates. They do not account for the additive effect of the main causes of increased mortality from increasing malnutrition and infections. The climate crop models on which estimates of death from malnutrition are based do not include about half of the adverse effects of global climate change on agriculture. The very large impact of extreme weather events on both agriculture and human health is not yet captured in the computer models. IPCC 2007 on Food Security Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to C depending on the crop. At lower latitudes and especially dry and tropical regions crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases C. Globally the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of C but above this it is projected to decrease. [This means a reduction of global food output above the global average temperature increase of 3C or less.] 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity World Food Decline at +3.0 C, +1.5C for Developing Regions ), IPCC (2007), Food, fibre and forest products, Policymakers Summary 2007 IPCC C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Palmer Drought Severity Index Great Increase in the World Drought Severity Index from 1900 to 2005 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2007 Increase in the Frequency of Dry Days by 2100 IPCC 2007 Suitability for Rain-fed Crops Dark green shows the worlds best agricultural regions. [The best agricultural regions of the world coincide with the trend in the greatest frequency of dry days.] Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The very best agricultural regions of the world are dried up by changing the climate. Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity This will put world food prices into a continuously rising trend which will be devastating for poor nations and poor people of all nations. This alone will cause mass unremitting starvations in Africa which in this situation will not get relief from food aid. (Authors comment) 17/11/10 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Food Security IPCC % of worlds crops are grown by rain-fed agriculture. World food security is disastrous at +2C. At +3C, 50% losses in the most climate change vulnerable regions of the developing world. Climate Change Crop Model Results World Bank 2008 IPCC data 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Global Temperature Increase of 2.0C Disastrous to Agriculture +1.5C Food Loss for Developing Nations at +1.5C 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2007 IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The reduction in crop yields will be considerably higher than the IPCC estimates because about half of the adverse impacts are not reflected by climate crop models. In particular this includes the impact of extreme weather events and the toxic effect of increase in ground-level ozone on green plants and crops. Food Loss IPCC 2007 Fresh water security IPCC 2007 IPCC 2007 on Health Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Weighing the Health Impacts 2007 IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Impacts IPCC 2007 Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Health Impacts Increasing Malaria Other Deadly Tropical Diseases Transmitted Infections. A range of mathematical models indicate, with high consistency, that climate change scenarios over the coming century would cause a net increase in the proportion of the world's population living in regions of potential transmission of malaria and dengue. A change in climatic conditions will increase the incidence of various types of water- and food-borne infectious diseases. IPCC 2007 Health Impacts Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2007 The now inevitable increasing global warming and climate change will accelerate todays high death rate from starvation and infections amongst the developing world populations, who are most vulnerable to climate change and the most innocent in causing climate change. Continuing global greenhouse gas pollution is the worst imaginable crime against humanity A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity Risks after 2100 are Excluded 2100 Why only to 2100? Climate change assessments and policy only consider the impacts up to the year 2100, ignoring impacts to all future generations. CO2 emissions 1000 years Even cutting carbon emissions to virtually zero, the global warming is set to double and last thousands of years! From IPCC C 1.0C 1000s of years 1000s of years Temperature ZERO CARBON Today A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity The 2007 IPCC assessment puts an absolute upper limit on crop tolerance to regional temperature increases of 3.5C (from preindustrial), which is equivalent to a maximum 3C global average increase. A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity Global food production declines at 3C (or sooner) Declines in crop yields from climate change are in practice irreversible. So-called adaptation in the best of situations can only delay declines by a few years. This is shown by IPCC 2007 model results with adaptation. Part Two How long have the governments of industrialized nations known of the inevitable terrible calamitous impacts to the most climate change vulnerable populations and to all future generations ? Through the IPCC assessments, which are examined and approved by governments, these dangers have been known and acknowledged by industrialized nations since Since 1990! Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity The crime of all time Since 1990 The IPCC record shows that in the 1990 assessments and all subsequent assessments, the industrialized nations have known of the catastrophic impacts to the most vulnerable populations and their economies. Since 1990 these industrialized nations have assumed that they were not vulnerable to economic losses. This particularly relates to food security. Note: it is now clear that food security is vulnerable in all regions. The Crime of All Time The 1990 assessment and all subsequent assessments found that low latitude tropical and arid regions would lose out on food security with declining crop yields at minimum temperature increases of 1 to 2 C, while the northern hemisphere temperate regions would not lose and could gain from an increase in crop yield, up to towards the end of the 21 st century. The Crime of All Time 2 C Food Losses for Developing World According to the first IPCC assessment in 1990, practically everything was known to direct policy making so as to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts on the huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable people living in the developing nations, and who still are more vulnerable because of economic deprivations and lack of social services. In every succeeding IPCC assessment, the amount of research documentation has increased enormously, and this has served to confirm the conclusions and judgments of the 1990 IPCC assessment. The same projection of the loss of food security for the most climate change vulnerable regions at +1-2 C is in the 1990 and the 2007 assessments. All Necessary Information is Documented in the first IPCC 1990 Assessment The Crime of All Time 1990 IPCC st assessment That global average temperature increases follow the business as usual fossil fuel economy has been known since IPCC 1990 The Crime of All Time For the business as usual best and high estimates, these 1990 projections are identical to the IPCC 2007 business as usual projections. 1990 IPCC 1990 (1 st Assessment) Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Impacts on Food at C 1990 IPCC st Assessment (Same as IPCC 2007) 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Impacts on Food 1990 IPCC 1990 (1 st Assessment) Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity There is a possibility that potential productivity of high and mid latitudes may increase because of a prolonged growing season, but it is not likely to open up large new areas for production and it will be mainly confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns of agricultural trade could be altered by decreased cereal production in some of the currently high-production areas, such as Western Europe, southern US, parts of South America and Western Australia. With respect to southern US and Western Australia this has been confirmed by recent studies. (Authors comment) 1990 IPCC st Assessment Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 1990 Health Impacts IPCC 1990 (1 st Assessment) Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity of less than 2C Some population groups in developed countries are also highly vulnerable even to a warming of less than 2C. 1.5C There is high confidence that warming of above 1.5C would include key negative impacts in some regions of the world, and pose new and significant threats to certain highly vulnerable population groups in other regions. 1.5C IPCC C 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Health Climate change is likely to have wide- ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life. 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2001 IPCC 2001 Health 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Food Security Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity IPCC 2001 Food Security Studies suggest that temperature increases may extend the geographic range of some insect pests currently limited by temperature. Most agricultural diseases have greater potential to reach severe levels under warmer conditions. Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Increasing (and different) weeds, pests and plant diseases cause increasingly heavy losses to food production especially in developing regions IPCC 2001 Food Security Human Health: Human health is predicted to be adversely affected by projected climate change. Temperature rises will extend the habitats of vectors of diseases such as malaria. Droughts and flooding, where sanitary infrastructure is inadequate, will result in increased frequency of epidemics and enteric diseases. More frequent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever could result from increased rainfall. Increased temperatures of coastal waters could aggravate cholera epidemics in coastal areas. Water: Africa is the continent with the lowest conversion factor of precipitation to runoff, averaging 15%.. Current trends in major river basins indicate a decrease in runoff of about 17% over the past decade. Reservoir storage shows marked sensitivity to variations in runoff and periods of drought. Lake storage and major dams have reached critically low levels. Model results indicate that global warming will increase the frequency of such low storage episodes. Food Security : There is wide consensus that climate change, through increased extremes, will worsen food security in Africa. The continent already experiences a major deficit in food production in many areas, and potential declines in soil moisture will be an added burden. Africa 2C Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity Increasing diseases, infections, water deprivation, and starvation. IPCC 2001 The evidence amounting since 1990 is definitive. Huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable are already condemned to massive unprecedented human suffering and loss of life from heat waves, floods, drought, lack of water, lack of food, famine, increased tropical diseases and increased gastrointestinal infections- which will impact on these populations together. Today the greatest crime against humanity ever has been committed. At 1.6C. The Crime Of All Time The climate policy of the industrialized nations has been to allow the global temperature to rise by 2.0C ever since now reinforced by the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. This condemns unprecedented unimaginable extents and rates of suffering and death, amounting to a policy of virtual extermination of the Global South. It also condemns the Global North to face declining yields of food crops from extremes of heat and weather - which will never end. At 2.0C The Crime Of All Time Changing the global climate beyond long known danger limits by constant greenhouse gas pollution is the worst possible crime against humanity and all future generations.