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The World in 2050: Benefits of Systems Science towards Sustainable Transformations Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat Director General and Chief Executive Officer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Professor Earth System Science, Wageningen, The Netherlands Prague, 20 December 2016

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The World in 2050:Benefits of Systems Science

towards Sustainable Transformations

Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat Director General and Chief Executive Officer, International

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Professor Earth System Science, Wageningen, The

Netherlands

Prague, 20 December 2016

2016 #3

2016 #4

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)Goal #

Description Goal # Description

Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries

Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation

2016 #5

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario

IIASA SRESB2 scenario

IIASA SRES A2r scenario

UrbanizationWorld

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

Popu

latio

n

2016 #6

Historical (UN)

IIASA SRES B1 scenario

IIASA SRESB2 scenario

IIASA SRES A2r scenario

UrbanizationWorld, UK, BRICs

UK

BRICs

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Popu

latio

n

Source: Grubler et al. 2012

2016 #7

Participatory Governance

Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010

Participatory

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Popu

latio

n

2016 #8

Participatory GovernanceSlavery Abolishment

Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012;

Participatory

Abolishment

1863United Statesof America

1906China

1948UN Declaration

of Human Rights

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Popu

latio

n

2016 #92015 #9

Cumulative Carbon Emissions

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

RCP 2.6

Net-negative emissions

2016 #102015 #10

Food for a Week, Aboubakar Family© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Source: Menzel, 2005

2016 #112015 #11

© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Source: Menzel, 2005

Food for a Week, Melander Family

2016 #122015 #12

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Vision: Sustainable Future

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses• cities• civil society• science• IGOs (UNIDO etc.)

Sustainability Transformation“Doing More with Less” within (Planetary) Boundaries

Time

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

Source: WBGU, 2011

→ Increasing problem perception

→ Policy regimes

→ Values and norms

2016 #13

Vision: Sustainable Future within Planetary Boundaries

Sustainability Transformation“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Incremental

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

→ 2050: Sustainability transformation

→ Back to the“Garden of Eden”

Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011

Out of Anthropocene

2016 #1414

1850 19501900 2000 2050

Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013

Transformational Change

2016 #152015 #1515

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.

Disruptive Change

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

2016 #16

Integrated Systems approach to SDG-Pathways

We lack a truly integrated, comprehensivequantitative understanding of sustainabledevelopment pathways, accounting for the inter-linkages between the economy, technology, environment, climate, human development and planetary boundaries.

2016 #17

GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT

17

2006-12: GEA defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy.

GEA guides targets of UN Secretary-General’s

GEA became basis for adoption of Sustainable Development Goal # 7

2016 #182015 #181850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MikrochipKommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

VakuumröhreOttomotor

ElektrischerMotor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear-energie

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution

2016 #192015 #191850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

2016 #202015 #201850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

EinsparungenAndere ENuklearGasÖlKohleBiomasse

Global Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear

SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

~55% renewables by 2030

2016 #212015 #211850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ

0

50

100

150

200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

European Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

2016 #222015 #22

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012

2016 #23

GAINS POLICY APPLICATIONS

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution1994 Second Sulphur Protocol1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/multi-effect Protocol2012 Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

European Union1999 National Emission Ceilings Directive2004 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution2010 Energy & Climate package, etc.2013 Revision of the Thematic Strategy

Further analyses for UNFCCC, Arctic Council, UNEP, Chinese, Japanese and Korean Governments

2016 #242015 #24Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES

2016 #252015 #25Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES

2016 #262015 #26Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES

2016 #272015 #27Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

GEA: MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED POLICIES

2016 #282015 #28

Climate Change

Maximum FufillmentMinimum Fufillment

Energy Security

Energy Affordability

Health / Air Pollution

Ancilliary Risks

Energy Access

GEA Pathway Analysis

Policy Tools for Decision Making

2016 #29

UN80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100, with the median at 10.9 billion.IIASAMost likely scenario indicates that world population will increase to 9.2 billion by 2050, peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to 9.0 billion by the end of the century.

Benefits of Systems Approach: Bridging across research and policy making silo’s

2016 #30

PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Base Year 2010

FemalesMales1.22 Billion

2016 #31

PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONRAPID DEVELOPMENT

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Projections 2030 - SSP1

FemalesMales1.5 Billion

2016 #32

PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONRAPID DEVELOPMENT

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Projections 2060 - SSP1

FemalesMales1.5 Billion

2016 #33

PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATION

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Base Year 2010

FemalesMales1.22 Billion

2016 #34

PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONSTALLED DEVELOPMENT

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Projections 2030 - SSP3

FemalesMales1.6 Billion

2016 #35

PROJECTING INDIA’S FUTURE POPULATIONSTALLED DEVELOPMENT

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Projections 2060 - SSP3

FemalesMales2.1 Billion

2016 #36

IMPACT OF EDUCATION ON POPULATIONRAPID VERSUS STALLED DEVELOPMENT

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Projections 2060 -SSP1

FemalesMales1.5 Billion

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Population in Millions

Age

(in

Year

s)

India - Projections 2060 -SSP3

FemalesMales2.1 Billion

2016 #37

Strategic objective of TWI2050

The World in 2050 project will explore the design of sustainable development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic development within planetary boundaries

Source: Rockstrom, 2014

2016 #38

The World in 2050 (TWI2050)

How to achieve global development within a safe and just operating space

“Safe space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives and integrated models

Sustainable Development Pathway based on existing literature e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP

Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs of transformation toward the “safe space” and how to achieve sustainable futures

2016 #392015 #39

● AIMES● Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)● Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Earth Institute, Columbia University ● Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro● Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)● Future Earth● German Development Institute (DIE)● Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)● Indian Institute International Futures● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)● International Monetary Fund (IMF)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) ● Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)● Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL)● Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)● Stanford University ● Stockholm Resilience Centre ● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● The City University of New York (CUNY)● Tsinghua University● UN Population Division● UN DESA● UNEP- World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)● University of Hamburg● World Bank

The World in 2050 “Consortium”

2016 #40

IIASA: THE EARLY 1970s

Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian

2016 #412015 #41Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA

2016 #422015 #42

International, independent, interdisciplinary

Research on major global problems

Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis

24 MEMBER COUNTRIES (NMOs)

2016 #43

About 350 (trans- and multidisciplinary) scientists from 50+ countries @ IIASA in the host country Austria + 2 500 external

faculty (4000 alumni)

30%

41%

29%

Natural Scientists & EngineersEconomists & other Social ScientistsMathematicians and others

2016 #44

IIASA as a global hub for system analysis research Today’s IIASA

• 1,445 visitors & collaborators in 2014• Plus ~25% of IIASA alumni (3,505 people worldwide)

remain actively involved in IIASA research• Plus ~600 partner institutions• In sum, ~2500 researchers from some 65 countries

involved in IIASA’s research network (external faculty)• And it is not just research networks: IIASA

researchers took part in 112 advisory boards and steering committees in 2014

2016 #45

EXAMPLES OF EARLY RESEARCH

1978 1981 1986 19901983

2016 #462015 #46

Food &

Water

Poverty &

Equity

IIASA SYSTEMS RESEARCH STRATEGY & RESULTS

Energy &

Climate Change

IIASA HIGHLIGHTS 2011-2015http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/achievements/Highlights.html

2016 #47

IIASA ENHANCED SYSTEMS RESEARCH FRAMEWORK 2016-2020

Integrated Solutions for Sustainability

Transformations

Natural Systems

Technology & Infrastructure Systems Human & Social

Systems

Integrated Systems Analysis

Science, Policy, Society Partnerships

Systems Approaches for Global Transformations IIASA Research Plan 2016 – 2020

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/leadership/strategicplan/IIASA-Research-Plan2015-2020.pdf

Thank you & welcome (soon) at IIASA !