the washington metro area for-sale housing market · the washington metro area housing market...

The Washington metro area housing market continues to lose the

momentum it has gained over the past year. Although sales typically

peak this time of the year, unit volume sold declined 6.6% year-over-

year. Average price increased over the year, but the rate of increase has

been decelerating. A gradual increase in the available inventory and

the average days on market demonstrates that the regional housing

market recovery is plateauing.

• 2nd quarter prices: Up 3.2% at 2nd quarter 2014 compared to 2nd

quarter 2013.

• Unit volume: Down 6.6% from last year at this time.

• Days on market: Up 3 days over the year to 41 days; still below the

10-year average of 62 days.

• Months of inventory: Up 0.8 months from the sales pace at 2nd

quarter 2013.

The national economy is regaining traction and will continue to sustain

the broader housing market in the period ahead. However, headwinds in

the form of weak employment growth, sluggish household formation,

and tighter lending standards will keep the region’s housing market

performance modest through the balance of 2014. For current housing

market indicators, see Figure 1.

PACE OF PRICE GROWTH SLOWING

The average price of a Washington-area home sold in the 2nd quarter

of 2014 was $488,153 — 3.2% higher than last year. Thirty consecutive

months of year-over-year price gains point to a sustained housing

market. This mid-year regional price growth, however, is the smallest

yearly price increase since the beginning of 2012. The moderated pace

MARKET INDICATORS Washington Metro Area | At Mid-Year 2014 | Figure 1

CHANGE VS. Q1 2014

CHANGE VS. Q2 2013

Q2 AVG. SALES PRICE $488,153 10.8% 3.2%

Q2 SALES (UNITS) 18,113 64.9% 6.6%

Q2 AVG. DAYS ON MARKET 41 14 3

SALES PACE* 2.5 Months 0.2 Months 0.8 Months

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014. *Sales pace at June 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.

MID-YEAR 2014

DELTA ASSOCIATES

WASHINGTON AREA

HOUSING OUTLOOK

SPONSORED BY

1DELTA ASSOCIATES | GMU CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE ENTREPRENEURSHIP

THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR-SALE HOUSING MARKET

Center for Real Estate

EntrepreneurshipCenter for Real Estate

Entrepreneurship


MID-YEAR 2014WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

of price increases in the first half of 2014 is due in part to the increase

in inventory, especially at the onset of the spring selling season.

Expected increases in mortgage rates – triggered by strong national job

figures and the culmination of the Federal bond-buying program by

late 2014 – will likely keep regional price growth at a decelerated pace.

The Core Jurisdictions of the District, Alexandria, and Arlington

counties experienced the greatest price increase in the area. The

average sales price of a Core area home in the 2nd quarter of 2014 was

$630,961 – 6.0% higher than the average price in the 2nd quarter of

2013. See Figures 2 and 3.

• The District: the average sales price in the 2nd quarter of 2014 was

up 9.7% from a year ago.

• Arlington: the average price in the 2nd quarter was up 2.2%

compared with one year earlier.

• Alexandria: the average price in the 2nd quarter was 0.9% lower

than a year earlier.

In the Washington area’s Inner Ring of Fairfax, Montgomery, and

Prince George’s counties (including Falls Church and Fairfax cities)

prices were 1.5% higher than a year ago; the average price at 2nd

quarter 2014 was $476,422.

• Prince George’s: home prices are 10.3% higher than in the 2nd

quarter of 2014.

• Fairfax County: home prices are up 2.5% compared with one

year ago.

• Montgomery County: prices decreased 0.3% from a year ago.

The Outer Suburbs of Prince William, Loudoun and Frederick counties

also experienced average sales price increases this year compared

to last year. The average price in this area was $393,972 in the 2nd

quarter of 2014, 2.1% higher than in the 2nd quarter of 2013.

• Prince William County: the average sales price in the 2nd quarter of

2014 was 4.8% higher than the average a year ago.

• Loudoun County: average prices are 2.4% higher than a year earlier.

• Frederick County (MD): average home prices went up 0.2% from

one year ago.

Median prices in the District, Arlington, and the City of Alexandria

increased to 114%, 105%, and 103% respectively, of the peak bubble

price. Fairfax County is at 99% of its peak price while price performance

HOME PRICES BY SUB -AREA* Washington Metro Area | At Mid-Year 2014 | Figure 2

SUB-AREA* CHANGE VS.

Q1 2014 CHANGE VS.

Q2 2013

Core $630,961 10.9% 6.0%

Units 3,843 63.2% 1.3%

Inner $476,422 12.1% 1.5%

Units 9,594 64.1% 10.0%

Outer $393,972 8.3% 2.1%

Units 4,397 69.6% 3.9%

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014. *Core: DC, Arlington, Alexandria. Inner: Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax City, Falls Church. Outer: Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick.

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Core

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Outer

HOME SALES AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro by Sub-Area* | 2005 – 2014 | Figure 3

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in other jurisdictions remains at 90% or less of the peak prices reached

during the last expansion cycle. See Figure 4.

UNIT VOLUME SOLD DECLINES

Sales volume in the 2nd quarter of 2014 is down over the year by 6.6%.

This is in contrast to the 2nd quarter of 2013 when the number of homes

sold spiked 13.4% over the year. The tougher mortgage qualification

standards that began early this year continues to create a drag on

sales. Homeowners who took advantage of record-low interest rates of

the past two years may also have committed to fixed-rate lock-ins and

thus postponed repurchases, further subduing the number of sales.

Unit volume, however, has been sustained fairly well in light of

modest regional employment growth. While the Federal government

has trimmed its workforce, the private sector continues to create

enough new jobs to offset the local economic impact of Federal

austerity measures.

DAYS ON MARKET AVERAGE UP SLIGHTLY, STILL BELOW LONG-TERM AVERAGE

Washington metro area homes sold in an average of 41 days, up

3 days from one year ago but below the 10-year average of 62 days.

As inventory continues to rebound, homebuyers are now deciding

among a greater array of listings and may partly explain the longer

time to closing. The slowdown on purchases by investors and regular

homebuyers snagging cheap, bank-owned properties also could have

restrained buying. See Figure 5.

Time on market is shortest in the Inner Ring and longest in the Core

Jurisdictions. Differences between the geographic areas of the market

had widened a bit near the end of 2011 and in early 2012 as uncertainty

over the Federal budget began to affect the market, although the gaps

were not as divergent as in the period from 2006-2009. Those gaps

became less pronounced throughout the second half of 2012 and

during 2013, indicating a healthy overall market.

• Core: Time on market was 45 days during the 2nd quarter of 2014,

compared to 35 days one year ago.

• Inner Ring: Time on market averaged 38 days in the 2nd quarter of

2014, the same as one year earlier.

• Outer Suburbs: Time on market was 43 days during the 2nd quarter

of 2014, up from 40 days last year. See Figure 6.

FOR-SALE L ISTINGS Washington Metro Area | Existing Houses | Figure 5

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LIST

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10-Year Average = 24,226 Listings

Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014.

P E R C E N T O F P E A K B U B B L E P R I C E

40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%

Prince George's

Prince William

Montgomery

Loudoun

Frederick

Fairfax

Alexandria

Arlington

District of Columbia


MEDIAN HOME PRICES AS A PERCENT OF THEIR PRIOR PEAK Washington Metro Area | Figure 4

Note: Median home prices at June 2014.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro by Sub-Area* | Existing Houses | Figure 6

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

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Core Outer

2005 2008 2006 2007 2004 2009

Market Average at Q2 14: 41 Days

2003 2010 2011 2012 2013


2014



Of note, the average selling price in the 2nd quarter of 2014 is 98.9%

of list price. This ratio is the highest it has been since the 3rd quarter

of 2005 and well above the recent trough of 89.9% in the 1st quarter

of 2009. It is notable that the ratio edged up to 99.3% for the Core

Jurisdictions during this quarter. This ratio has been high of late as

listings – though steadily recovering – remain below the long-term

market average and buyers are more willing to pay nearly full price.

Additions to the available inventory may create a larger bid/ask spread

in the year ahead.

INVENTORY EDGES UP AS LISTINGS INCREASE

The number of homes on the market increased during 2nd quarter 2014.

The Washington area has an average of 2.5 months of for-sale inventory

this quarter, markedly increasing from the 1.7 months of inventory a

year ago. The improvement in inventory this quarter is mostly due to

a 39% increase in the number of active listings from the 2nd quarter

of 2013. Steady price gains that have helped some homeowners out of

negative equity as well as reduction in regional economic uncertainty

have likely encouraged more Washington area residents to put their

homes on the market. This increase in listings likely will decelerate

the rate of price growth but could bring more potential buyers into the

housing market in the year ahead. See Figure 7.

In recent years, the Washington area’s average prices tend to rise

when the ratio of inventory to sales is below six months. This ratio is

calculated by dividing the number of listings by the number of sales at

a given point in time. If the number of sales increases and the number

of listings decreases or remains the same, the ratio may be low, as at

the peak of the housing market in 2005. The relatively low ratio we

have seen in the past two years is primarily due to a lower number of

listings, rather than robust sales volume.

Fauquier County in Virginia had the highest ratio in the region at

approximately 4.5 months of inventory in June 2014. Falls Church City

has the lowest available inventory relative to sales this quarter, at 1.5

months, up from 0.9 months last year at this time. See Figure 8.

PEER CITIES OUTPERFORM THE WASHINGTON REGION

By most measures, the Washington metro area housing market has

consistently performed better than other metro areas’ housing

markets. This is seen most clearly when examining long-term

PRICE CHANGE AND INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | 2004 – 2014 | Figure 7

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12-Month Price Change (left axis)

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Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014. *Months of inventory at current sales pace for last month in each quarter.

MONTHS OF FOR -SALE INVENTORY Washington Metro Area | Figure 8

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Falls Ch District Ffx City Alex Arl Ffx Cnty Mont Pr Geo Pr Will Lou Fred (MD) Fauq

Jun. 2014: 2.5 Months

Jun. 2013: 1.7 Months

June 2013

June 2014

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Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014. *Sales pace at June 2014. Pace is ratio of total for-sale inventory to current month’s sales.



performance. Recently, however, price growth in many major U.S.

metros has surpassed the Washington market’s rate of growth. In

particular, metros such as Las Vegas, San Francisco, and San Diego are

seeing more robust price growth.

In the Washington metro area, the Federal Housing Finance Agency

(FHFA) reported that Washington experienced price growth of 181%

from the first quarter of 1994 through the first quarter of 2014, second

after San Diego among large metros. See Figure 9.

Case-Shiller has reported that Washington home prices increased

7.0% from April 2013 to April 2014, the most recent data available. The

Washington region underperformed the 20-city composite increase of

10.8% over the same period. Among the 20 cities in this composite,

Washington ranked 17th in greatest price growth as of April 2014

from 15th in January. Washington’s housing market began to recover

earlier in the cycle and its performance is still being exceeded by other

metropolitan areas’ performances. See Figure 10.

Of note, Case-Shiller’s methodology is different from FHFA’s in that

Case-Shiller tracks “same-store” prices, or comparable unit sales.

WASHINGTON AREA HOUSING OUTLOOK

The Washington area housing market recovery remains on a healthy

track but is running at a much slower pace during the first half of 2014.

The unit volume sold slipped 6.6% over the year as of 2nd quarter 2014

while home prices increased only modestly at 3.2% over the year. The

days-on-market average was 41 days during the 2nd quarter of 2014, up

three days from a year earlier but still well below the 62 day long-term

average. Thanks to a 39% increase in active listings from the 2nd quarter

of 2013, the available inventory is up to 2.5 months in the 2nd quarter

of 2014. Although increases in inventory could further slow price gains,

increasing certainty in the regional economy should continue to support

metro area for-sale housing demand during the 2nd half of 2014.

Washington’s housing market outlook might be affected by other

constraints. Sluggish household formation might continue to limit

housing demand in the region. As the economy strengthens and as the

Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing ends later this year, the 30-year

fixed mortgage rates will likely fluctuate upwards, further increasing

the cost of buying. These changes, combined with projected increases

in inventory, will likely keep local price growth in the modest range of

3% to 5% per annum in the intermediate term.

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PR ICE CHANGES 20-City Composite | April 2013 – April 2014 | Figure 10

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; July 2014. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.

25%

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PR ICE CHANGES Selected Large Metro Areas | 1994 – First Quarter 2014 | Figure 9

Source: FHFA, Delta Associates; July 2014. Note: Price change at 1st quarter of respective year; seasonally adjusted.



On balance, we expect that a combination of the following will bring

gains to the Washington-area for-sale housing market during the

second half of 2014:

• Mortgage interest rates that remain relatively low by historical

standards, notwithstanding a potential increase.

• Sustainable increases in house prices that may incentivize more

potential sellers to list their homes, thus bringing more buyers into

the market and increasing sales volume (while slowing price growth).

• Job growth, driven by the private sector, that is likely to be stay

modest but gain traction. Regional job growth popped in June after

being weak earlier in 2014.

• Modest income growth and robust household formation that will

propel new homebuyers into the marketplace.

Of note, a decline in this region’s apartment rents will likely slow the

rate of price increases for Washington-area single-family houses in

the year ahead. Still, the housing market is likely to see price growth

for all of 2014.

30-year fixed mortgage rates will likely fluctuate upwards, further increasing the cost of buying.

As the economy strengthens and as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing ends later this year,



T H E B I G P I C T U R E

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Washington Metro AreaU.S. 20 MSA Composite

PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES Washington Metro Area vs. 20-City Composite | Figure 11

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Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Delta Associates; July 2014. *12 months ending April 2014. Note: Seasonally adjusted purchase-only index.

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

RESALE VOLUME Washington Metro Area | All Housing Types | Figure 12

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Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014. *Annualized.

ANNUAL AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Washington Metro Area | Existing Houses | Figure 13

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

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Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; July 2014. *At Mid-Year 2014.

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RESALE PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area | Trailing 12 Months | Figure 14


Our Take: The Washington area saw a 7.0% increase

in existing home prices for the 12 months ending

April 2014 (per Case-Shiller data), underperforming

the 20-City Composite average of 10.8%. Washington

outperformed its peer cities earlier in the cycle but

now trails most major metros.

Our Take: Sales volume in 2nd quarter 2014 was

18,113 homes, down 6.6% from the same quarter in

2013. This is the first time since early 2012 that unit

volume sold declined for two consecutive quarters.

Our Take: The average time on the market at 2nd

quarter 2014 is 41 days, up from 38 days one year

earlier but below the 10-year average of 62 days.

Our Take: Price growth this quarter showed signs

of cooling compared to the elevated price gains last

year. On a 12-month trailing basis, prices in June

2014 were only 2.2% higher than in June 2013.



NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

Household formation has slowed down in recent years. Harvard’s

Joint Center for Housing Studies reported that the nationwide pace

of household growth stayed in the meager range of 600,000 to 800,000

per year from 2007 to 2013, far below the average annual pace of

1.3 million in recent decades. Weak household growth rates among

younger adults explain much of this slowdown, as there were 1.1

million fewer heads of households in this age group in 2013 than ten

years earlier. Sluggish household growth is worrisome since it could

translate to depressed housing demand, especially for starter homes.

Many have pointed to this trend as one of the underlying causes of

the recent slump in new housing starts and permits, particularly for

single-family units.

This national trend in household formation is unfolding in the

Washington area and may affect the regional housing market rebound.

Headship rates – the ratio of households to adults – in the metro area

shrank from 51.1% in 2005 to 46.9% in 2012, based on the one-year

estimate of the American Community Survey (ACS). The same ACS

estimates for the Washington region also indicate that the percentage

of householders under 25 years old decreased 3.2 percentage points

while those ages 25 to 44 declined 1.4 percentage points from 2005 to

2012. See Figure 15.

Long-term demographic trends affect household growth and headship

rates, but economic fluctuations, such as stagnant income growth and

rising debt, can partly explain the recent setbacks. In the Washington

region, tough job competition and Federal spending cuts have imposed

some downward pressure on income growth. Based on data by the

Bureau of Economic Analysis, the metro area’s overall real income per

capita dropped 4.1% from 2008 to 2012. The region has also regained

mostly lower wage jobs since the beginning of the recovery. Since

higher personal income correlates strongly with greater likelihood

of heading an independent household, weakened income growth in

Washington could slow the pace of regional housing demand.

The rising share of younger adults with student loan debt is another

recent constraint on household formation. An increase in monthly

student loan payments for this age group could affect these potential

first-time homebuyers’ ability to pay and save for housing. With

lending standards remaining tight, higher potential for default among

HEADSHIP RATES Washington Metro Area | 2005 – 2012 | Figure 15

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Source: ACS 1-year estimates, Delta Associates; July 2014.

44%

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012



student loan debtors could prevent this group from building good

credit and qualifying for mortgages. Although there is currently no

conclusive survey for the metro area, the increasing share of graduates

with student loan debt may influence housing choices of younger

Washington residents since it is a region known for attracting and

retaining a high number of college graduates.

Despite these concerns, household formation in Washington should

hold up in the long run. According to ESRI, households are expected

to grow at an annual rate of 1.4% from 2013 to 2018 in the metro area.

This projection is likely since the metro area will continue to attract

net domestic and foreign in-migration due to its investment in public

infrastructure and its diversifying economy. Also, the region still has

the highest median household income among major metro areas,

with 1.9% of Washington millennials earning over $100,000 according

to Nielsen. Furthermore, renewed certainty regarding the regional

economy and the partial repeal of sequestration measures should give

a boost to the labor market, releasing the pent-up demand to form

households and to enter the for-sale housing market.

WASHINGTON AREA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

We expect job growth in the metro area to remain tempered for an

expansion cycle – in the range of 30,000 to 50,000 jobs per annum.

This is sufficient to support a healthy residential real estate industry,

but below the levels experienced in most recent expansion cycles. See

Figures 16-17.

We expect the Washington metro area economy to gain momentum

entering the latter half of the year after a weak start. Harsh winter

weather slowed the economy in the first half of the year, but we expect

it to gain traction as we approach 2015. During 2015 and 2016 we expect

healthy growth, though at a slower rate than seen in recent expansion

cycles. As the Federal government will continue to face austerity

measures during this period – albeit reduced from 2013 levels – we

expect the source of growth to continue its shift to the private sector.

More specifically, we predict approximately two-thirds of job growth

during the next five years will come from the Professional/Business

Services and Construction sectors. Overall, employment growth will

be healthy but average wages lower on an inflation-adjusted basis than

what this region has experienced in the past. International business

activities will benefit Washington and support payroll job growth in

the National Capital Region.

0%

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Bos Was Hou DFW SF Bay Den Phx NY S. Fla Chi Atl LABasin

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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Large Metro Areas | May 2013 vs. May 2014 | Figure 17

Source: BLS, Delta Associates; July 2014. Note: National rates are seasonally adjusted.

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PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending June 2014 | Figure 16

Source: BLS, Delta Associates; July 2014.



We estimate that an annual average of 42,000 payroll jobs will be

added to the Washington metro area economy during the five-year

period from 2014 to 2018. Private sector firms will be the cornerstone

of employment growth in the period ahead. See Figure 18.

PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 1998 – 2018 | Figure 18

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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

20-Year Annual Average = 42,300/Year

5-Year Projected Average = 42,000/Year

during the five-year period from 2014 to 2018.

We estimate that an annual average of 42,000 payroll jobs will be added to the Washington metro area economy



DELTA ASSOCIATES

Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals offering consulting, valuation, and data services to the commercial real

estate industry for over 30 years. The firm’s practice is organized in four related areas:

• Valuation of partial interests in commercial real estate assets.

• Consulting, research and advisory services for commercial real estate projects, including market studies, market entry

strategies, asset performance enhancement studies, pre-acquisition due diligence, and financial and fiscal impact analyses.

• Litigation support, including dispute resolution, from forensic fact-finding to mediation and expert witness services. Damages,

material adverse change, and contract disputes are specialties.

• Subscription data for select metro regions for office, industrial, retail, condominium, and apartment markets.

For more information on Delta Associates, please visit DeltaAssociates.com.

Delta’s Washington Area Housing Outlook team includes:

• Gregory H. Leisch, CRE, Chief Executive

• David Weisel, CRE, President, Consulting Division

• Alexander (Sandy) Paul, CRE, Executive Vice President

• Rachelle Sarmiento, Associate

• Michele Frazzetta, Graphic Designer

© 2014. All rights reserved. You may neither copy nor disseminate this report. If quoted, proper attribution is required.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates, ESRI, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Harvard’s Joint

Center for Housing Studies, Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, Nielsen, S&P/Case-Shiller, U.S. Census.

Although the information contained herein is based on sources which Delta Associates (DA) believes to be reliable, DA makes no representation or warranty that such

information is accurate or complete. All prices, yields, analyses, computations, and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Under no circumstances should

any such information be considered representations or warranties of DA of any kind. Any such information may be based on assumptions which may or may not be accurate,

and any such assumption may differ from actual results. This report should not be considered investment advice.

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unique opportunities to connect with the real estate development community.

For more information about The Center for Real Estate Entrepreneurship please contact Robert Wulff, CREE Director and MS

in Real Estate Development Director, at [email protected]. Or, visit us on the web at som.gmu.edu/realestate.

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Fairfax, VA 22030

703.993.1880

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the washington metro area for-sale housing market · the washington metro area housing market...

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