the unfolding effects of organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction on voluntary...

Motivation and Emotion, VoL 15, No. 1, 1991

The Unfolding Effects of Organizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Satisfaction on Voluntary Employee Turnover ~

Thomas W. Lee and Terence R. Mitchell 2

University of Washington

An evolving discontent with existing theories of vohmtaly turnover led to the postulation of" an "unfolding m o d e l " / b r the effects of organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction on voluntaly employee turnover. b2 particular, existing theoly and research on vohmtaly turnover were judged m apply validly m only a rely small number of ot;ganizational s#uations. That is, their ecological validities appear weak. As a restdt, the proposed model seeks to descrit~e more of the organization's reality and to apply to more situations than do culT"ent theories. Thus, the proposed model seeks to increase ecological validity. Four decMon paths are detailed and asserted m capture more of the evohttionaty (hence the term "tmfolding") confluence of pelwonal, situational, and accMental /braes 0/7 the decMon to leave an m;wnization than CltlT"ent

models. Research implications are d&cussed.

Under the general rubric of work motivation, the topics of organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and voluntary employee turnover have been of enduring interest to researchers in organizational behavior, human re- source inanagement, and industrial and organizational psychology (Pinder, 1984; Steers & Porter, 1987). Correspondingly, our personal interests in, research into, and discussions on these topics, as well as on work motivation in general, have spanned more than a decade. Over these years, a quiet

IWe Ihank Bob Baron, Lee Beach, and Rick Mowday for their helpful comments on earlier drafts o1! this article.

2Address all correspondence to Dr. Thomas W. Lee, School of Business Admflfislration, University of Washington, D J-10, Seallle, Washinglon 98f95.

99

f1146-7239/91/(}300-4){ 99S(16 50;(6") 199l Plcnunl Publishing Corporation

100 Lee and Mitchell

discontent with the major theories purporting to explain the effects of commitment and satisfaction on voluntary turnover has evolved (e.g., Griffeth & Horn, 1990; Horn & Griffeth, t991). In particular, the research evidence on the major theories that link satisfaction and commitment to voluntary turnover (e.g., Mobley, 1977; Price & Muelter, 1986; Steers & Mowday, 1981) has shown only modest, though consistent, empirical support (Horn, Griffeth, & Sellaro, 1984; Lee, 1988; Lee & Mowday, 1987). Researchers have tried to improve these models by adding greater complexity via more variables (e.g., Mobley, Griffeth, Hand, & Meglino, 1979; Mowday, Koberg, & McArthur, 1984) or by introducing new analytical tools (e.g., Morita, Lee, & Mowday, 1989; Peters & Sheridan, 1988). Certainly, such efforts have increased our understanding of the linkage between commitment and satisfaction and voluntary turnover; moreover, such research should continue. At the basis of our discontent, however, we make the fundamental judgment that current efforts at refining theories or methods of analysis have resulted in and will continue to produce relatively small gains in our understanding.

With this special issue, an irresistible opportunity presented itself. We have the privilege of attempting to resolve our discontent. In the present article, our major contention is that new theory, rather than more data and analyses, is sorely needed to produce large gains in understanding. As such, an alternative theory for the effects of organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction (defined below) on voluntary employee turnover is proposed. The proposed model draws heavily from image theory (Beach, 1990; Beach & Mitchell, 1990; Mitchell & Beach, 1989), which argues that decisions result primarily from the compatibility between proposed actions and existing images of one's principles, goals, and action plans. In the sec- tions to follow, organizational commitment, anticipated job satisfaction and voluntary employee turnover are defined. Next, image theory is summarized. Then, the model is presented. Finally, research implications are discussed.

DEFINITIONS

Organizational Comm#ment. In the organizational sciences, the research stream originated by Porter and his associates almost two decades ago has led to a widely accepted definition of organizational commitment as a motivationally based attitude. Sometimes called "attitudinal commitment," organizational commitment is defined as (1) the strong belief and acceptance of the organization's goals and values, (2) a willingness to exert considerable effort on behalf of the organization, and (3) a desire to main- tain membership (Mowday, Steers, & Porter, 1979).

Unfolding Effects 101

Anticipated Job Satisfaction. Traditionally, job satisfaction is viewed as an affective and evaluative response to the job (Smith, Kendall, & Hulin, 1969). In their "expanded" model, MoNey et al. (1979) refined the traditional view of job satisfaction. Whereas job satisfaction concerned an evaluative response to current or prior job characteristics, "an- ticipation" concerned expectations of future job states, In our proposed model, anticipated job satisfaction is defined as the employee's estimate of the likely level of job satisfaction at some future point (e.g., 1 year from today).

Voluntaly Employee Turnovel: In the psychological and sociological research, voluntary, as opposed to involuntary, turnover is the phenomenon of interest. In other words, there must be some degree of volition in the process of heaving an organization. Although of interest to managers, involuntary turnover (e.g., being fired) is not directly relevant to the proposed model.

SUMMARY OF IMAGE THEORY

Image theory seeks to model broadly the individual's and organization's decision-making process. As such, image theory holds that individuals apply a compatibility criterion between various images held by a person and the decision options when making choices among these options. Thus, it aims to theorize beyond the current approaches to decision making derived fi'om rational expectations or economic analyses. In other words, image theory is a generic decision-making model that seeks to capture more of "organizational reality" (see Beach & Mitchell, 1990, or Mitchell & Beach, 1989, for a detailed description). Decision makers are theorized to hold three "images." First, individuals are said to hold a "value image," or a set of basic principles that guide actions. The value image is akin to beliefs, morals, or ideals. Second, decision makers are seen as holding a "trajectory image," or an agenda for the future. The trajectory image is akin to one's future goal(s). Third, employees are postulated to hold a "strategic image," or a plan with which to attain the trajectory image (i.e., the goal).

Specific decision outcomes are theorized to result from the consonance or dissonance of decision alternatives with subsets of images. For decisions involving acceptance or rejection of an option, the individual judges the fit (i.e., consonance, compatibility, or "goodness of fit") of the decision option with the value, trajectory, or strategic images. If the judgment is "fit," the decision option is adopted; if the judgment is "not- fit," the option is dropped. For decisions involving multiple options, the decision maker judges each element in the set of options for compatibility.

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If the judgment is fit, the option smwives for further evaluation; if the judgment is not-fit, the option is dropped. The subset of surviving (or compatible) options is next subjected to an economic-type analysis to select the final option. For decisions involving continuing or altering the existing state of affairs, the employee judges the fit of the trajectory and action images. tf the judgment is fit, the status quo continues; if the judgment is not-fit, either the image or status quo is changed.

Although intended as an alternative to rational expectations models of decision making, image theory can be extended and applied explicitly to the decision to leave an organization. Like image theory, our "unfolding model" supplements the major theories that link organizational commitment and job satisfaction to voluntary employee turnover. It does not seek to compete with existing theories; rather, the unfolding model purports to capture more organizational reality and to subsume current theories.

THE UNFOLDING MODEL

Overview

Figure 1 shows four specific decision paths that lead to the decision to stay with or leave an organization. Each path is represented by a column. A decision path summarizes how employees interpret (or frame) their work environment, identify decision options, and enact behavioral responses. In particular, each decision path proposed different effects of organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction on voluntary turnover, Furthermore, the loci differ substantially across the four decision paths. Table I summarizes these differences. In the subsections to follow, each decision path is described. In the remainder of the present subsection, two general concepts are presented that are precursors to the four decision paths, namely, the "shock to the system" and general decision frame, in particular, a shock to the system is theorized to determine the selection of a specific decision path.

Shock to the System. A shock is theorized to be a very distinguishable event that jars the employee towards mental deliberations. That is, the event is perceived as sufficiently salient to elicit very deliberate judgments about voluntary employee turnover and the surrounding circumstances. Much like the notion of shocks or disturbances in time series analysis (e.g., Pindyck & Rubinfeld, 1976), a shock to the system does not need to surprise an employee; it refers to any change, expected or unexpected, to an ongoing system. The shock selves to shake employees out of a "steady- state" or status quo. Specific examples of shocks to the system can include

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Unfillding Effects 105

ethical or moral violations (e.g., coverup of a toxic waste site), the transfer of one's spouse to another city, the end of the work season (e.g., the end of ski season usually ends many jobs at a winter resort), unsolicited inquir- ies from a managerial recruitment seiwices (e.g., a cold call from a head- hunter), the turnover of a coworker (e.g., one's best friend leaves the organization), an unsolicited job offer in a desirable location (e.g., in a city closer to one's aged parents), or a simple job offer with more pay and growth opportunity. These shocks are theorized to elicit very specific cognitive activity and to determine how organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction affect voluntary turnover.

The General Decision Frame. The general concept of framing has roots in such sociological and psychological research as that done by Abelson (1976), Bateson (1972), and Goffman (1974), and in such cognitive and decision making research as that done by Hunt (1975), Kahneman and Tversky (1979), and Minsky (1968). Whereas the first research theme holds framing to include the actor's perception of the social context and its demands, the second research theme holds framing to include processes in which problems are transforlned into cognitive representations and solved. In the unfolding model, the general decision frame includes both of these two major components. First, the general decision frame involves the organization's culture (e.g., Deal & Kennedy, 1982) and refers to its influences on the employees' construction of meaning based on the shock to the system, surrounding circumstances, and associated employee responses or behaviors. In particular, the general decision frame involves such organizational phenomena as similarity of corporate interpretations (Weick, 1979), employee socialization (Van Maanen & Schein, 1979), management as symbolic action (Pfeffer, 1981), corporate control of employee values, norms, and behaviors (Van Maanen & Barley, 1984), and emotional expression in organizations (Van Maanen & Kunda, 1989). In short, the first component of the general decision frame is conceptualized to reflect the shared beliefs, norms, values, and social interpretations between the employees and organization; this first component constitutes the immediate social context of the general decision fi'ame. Second, the general decision frame involves a personal component (i.e., a personal decision frame) that includes the employee's recollection of prior shocks to the system, surrounding circumstances, and associated responses or behaviors. More specifically, the second component of the general decision frame involves a memory probe for similar events and associated reactions, which could have been learned from other people or personal experiences. Thus, both this social context and personal decision fi'ame shape and guide the evolving decision process. (See Beach & Mitchell, 1990, or Mitchell & Beach, 1989, for a more detailed discussion on framing.)


Decision Path #1: Shock to the System and a Memo#y Probe Resulting hi a Match

Description. First, the shock to the system jars the employee to interpret (i.e., establish meaning by constructing a decision fi'ame for) the experienced shock and its surrounding circunlstances. In the unfolding model, these interpretations represent the construction of the individual's reactions due in part to personal characteristics and experiences unique to the employee (e.g., ethnic influences). Second, the shock to the system jars an employee to conduct a memory probe for prior decision fiames. In particular, (1) prior shocks, (2) the circumstances surrounding those prior shocks that were either observed or "expected" (i.e., the entity in memory results from a combination of observed events and stories heard about the event), and (3) the associated responses to a prior shock (e.g., voluntarily leaving the organization) are recalled from memory. Furthermore, the memory probe brings forth the prior judgment of whether the associated response was logically consistent and appropriate. Finally, if the judgment is made that the experienced decision frame is virtually identical to prior decision frames and that the associated response of leaving was correct, a match occurs. The associated response is then enacted (e.g., voluntary turnover). If a match does not occur, a different decision path is selected (e.g., paths #2 or #3).

In sum, decision path #1 describes a routinized behavioral response that is similar to a "habit," "script," or "standard operating procedure." The routinized response results from the recall of experienced, observed, or expected events. Within decision path #1, the response of leaving is enacted only when very specific conditions are recognized. Moreover, the central focus of decision path #1 is on the recognition of circumstances and the enactment of a response.

Examples. Temporary employees, for instance, frequently work a "grubstake," where individuals work until sufficient money is earned and then quit. The shock to the system might be the prespecified amount of money. Alternatively, an employee may simply refuse to work a newly assigned shift. Rather than work graveyard, for example, the employee may choose to quit. The newly assigned workshift might constitute a shock to the system. Further, an individual may work until job boredom develops and then quit. The shock to the system might be the onset of some threshold for job boredom.

Frequency. Although the conditions and consequences of a match occur in organizational life, the likelihood that the current shock and the


surrounding circumstances would be judged as nearly identical to recalled decision frames would seem to be small for most full-time and permanent employees. Moreover, the necessary judgment that the remembered response of leaving was logical and appropriate would further reduce the likelihood of a match. As such, decision path #1 is theorized to occur infrequently.

The Theorized Direct Effects of 01~anizationat Commitment and An- ticipated Job Satisfaction on Vohmm~y Turnover: Under decision path #1, voluntary turnover is an enacted and routinized response to recognized conditions and circumstances, Affective states and job attitudes should have very little or no influence. Therefore, organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction are theorized to have no direct effect on voluntary employee turnover.

The Ernl)irical Prediction of Vohmtaly Turnover fJwn Organizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Satisfaction. Because no direct effects were theorized, the empirical prediction of voluntary turnover from commitment and satisfaction is hypothesized to be weak. Furthermore, under conditions of decision path #1, voluntary turnover was also hypothesized to occur infrequently [e.g., p(voluntary turnover) < .50]. As such, the expected variance in voluntary turnover (i.e., n x p) should be minimal, and the empirical prediction of voluntary turnover should be attenuated and, therefore, very weak. For example, the logistic regression of voluntary turnover onto organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction should result in nonsignificant regression coefficients, with the nonsignifi- cance due to no direct effects and minimal systematic variance. Moreover, the best predictor of voluntary turnover, under conditions of decision path #1, should be the stimulus event that initiates this specific process, namely, the shock to the system itself.

Labor Market Effects. The individuals who most likely evoke decision path #1 appear to come from the secondary, as opposed to the primary, labor market (Hulin, Roznowski, & l-[achiya, t985). The secondary labor market consists largely of temporary, part-thne, and noncareer-oriented employment, whereas the primary labor market consists essentially of permanent, full-time, and career-oriented employment. Thus, decision path # t is theorized to occur more frequently in the secondary, rather than the primary, labor market. Indeed, it seems quite possible that decision path #1 may describe the dombTant mode of voluntary turnover in the secondary labor market. Further, if the secondary labor market expands relative to the primary labor market, the frequency of decision path #1 should correspondingly increase as well.


Decision Path #2: Shock to the System with No Specific Job Alternative h, Mind

Description. First, the shock to the system has led to the deliberate judgment that no nearly identical shock, with an appropriate associated response, has been recalled from menlory. Unlike decision path #1, a match has not occurred. Second, the employee engages in additional mental deliberations and frames the decision to-be-made and its surrounding circumstances as the binary choice of staying with or leaving the current organization, with no specific job alternative in mind. Thus, the issue at hand involves a single judgment of staying with a specific organization vs. leaving for a nonspecific destination. Third, the employee is theorized to evoke three images (i.e., images theory's adoption of a single option; Beach & Mitchell, 1990; Mitchell & Beach, 1989) that involve judgments focusing on staying with the current organization. In particular, these images evoke an employee's reassessment of the basic attachment or commitment to the current organization. The individual's value image, or personal principles, manifests judgments about the adequacy of one's personal acceptance (or internalization) of the organization's goals and values to suggest staying with the current company (e.g., "Am I really a company lifer?"). The decision maker's trajectory image, or personal goals, evinces judgments about the sufficiency of one's anticipated ,job satisfaction (e.g., "Is the job going to stay OK?") and the desire to remain (e.g., "Can I see myself remaining an employee into the foreseeable future?") to indicate staying with the current organization. Finally, the employee's strategic image, or personal plans, leads to judgments about the adequacy of one's willingness to exert work effort to suggest staying with the current organization (e.g., "Am I willing to continue to hustle for the company?").

In image theory, each image and its associated judgments are subjected to a "compatibility test," leading to a judgment of fit. In the unfolding model, the compatibility test leads to the initial employee judgment that the shock to the system can be easily integrated (i.e., is compatible with or fits) into the value, trajectory, or strategic images and passes some acceptability threshold to indicate staying with the current organization. If the judgment regarding any one of the three images is said to not-fit, the decision is to change the image or leave. If the judgment regarding all three images is said to fit, a second decision follows. In a compensatory mode, the employee next judges whether the three images are collectively compatible or "fit together" (i.e., are consonant or dissonant) with the shock to the system and pass some acceptability threshold. If the judgment is fit, the decision is to stay. If the judgment is not-fit, the decision is to change the image or leave.


In sum, decision path #2 describes a behavioral response to a largely unanticipated event that forces an employee to reassess one's affective attachment and expected rewards for staying with the organization. The central focus of decision path #2 is on staying with the current organization in the primary labor market.

Examples. On occasion, employees witness or participate in events that are judged to be morally abhorrent (e.g., insider trading violations, environmental pillage). The event, which constitutes a shock to the system, is framed as so extreme that violation of one's value image is unquestion- able and intolerable; quitting is the immediate response. Less dramatically, employees commonly witness the termination of coworkers. Such events, which may constitute a shock to the system, can jar one's work world and lead to reevaluations of the basic attachment to the organization. More- over, these employees may decide that further promotion is unlikely; thus, their trajectory image may be violated. With no specific job alternative in mind, some employees may simply leave and subsequently consider such diffuse ideas as returning to school to pursue a Ph.D., starting a family, or taking some time off simply to think.

Frequency. In organizational life, the number of potential shocks to the system is quite large. Correspondingly, the likelihood of encountering such a shock when one has no particular job alternative in mind seems very high. Relative to decision path #1, the binary decision to stay with or leave the organization with no specific job alternative in mind is hypothesized to occur frequently.

The Theorized Direct EJfects of Oplganizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Sati@tction on Vohmm~y Turnover Under decision path #2, the immediate effect of the shock to the system is the reassessment of one's basic attachment to the organization. The employee's organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction are fundamental components of that reassessment. That is, the process with which one decides to stay with or leave the organization by judging the value, trajectory, and strategic images involves the reassessment of commitment and anticipated satisfaction. As such, organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction are theorized to have very strong and direct effects on voluntary turnover in decision path #2.

The Empirical Prediction of Vohmtaty Turnover fivrn Organizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Satisfaction. Because strong and direct effects were theorized, the empirical prediction of voluntary turnover from commitment and satisfaction is hypothesized to be quite strong. Further- more, under conditions of decision path #2, voluntary turnover was also hypothesized to occur frequently. Unlike decision path #1, the expected variance in voluntary turnover should not be restricted. Therefore, the era-


pirical prediction of voluntary turnover should not be attenuated and should remain quite strong. Moreover, the unfolding model allows for more refined predictions as well. Presumably, empirical tests of the unfolding model would include the logistic regression of voluntary turnover onto separate measures of the three dimensions of organizational commitment and the single dimension of anticipated job satisfaction, which would represent the evoked images. Under the extreme condition that voluntary turnover is caused by the not-fit of a single image (e.g., of the value image), only the regression coefficient for the violated image should be statistically significant, and the remaining coefficients should be nonsignificant. Under the less extreme condition that voluntary turnover is caused by the not-fit of multiple images, their corresponding regression coefficients should be significant, and all other coefficients should be nonsignificant. Finally, under the most likely condition that voluntary turnover is caused by an overall general sense of not fit, all regression coefficients should be significant, with no single coefficient stronger than any other.

Labor Market Effects. In the traditional models, the effects of the labor market on voluntary turnover are most often theorized to be mediated by perceived job alternatives (e.g., MoNey et al, t979). In decision path #2, the shock to the system is theorized as jarring the employee to reassess the basic attachment to the current organization. Presuming a judgment of not-fi t , the employee is then hypothesized to leave the organization almost regardless of the actual or perceived labor market. In contrast to the traditional models, the labor market is hypothesized to have a minor effect on voluntary turnover.

Decisiolz Path #3." Shock to the System with Specific Job Ahernatives in Miml

Description. Like decision path #2, the shock to the system had led to the deliberate judgment that no nearly identical shock, with an appropriate associated response, has been recalled from memory. Again, a match has not occurred. Correspondingly, the employee again engages in additional mental deliberations. Unlike decision path #2, however, the decision to-be-made and its surrounding cil'cumstances are framed as the choice between staying with the current organization vs. leaving for one (of several possible) specific alternative destination(s). Thus, whereas decision path #2 involves staying with the current organization vs. leaving for an unspecific destination, decision path #3 involves staying with the current organization vs. leaving for a specific alternative employer. Moreover, whereas decision path #2 focuses on staying, decision path #3 focuses on leaving the or-

Uniblding Eil~cts 111

ganization. Like decision path #2 the value, trajectory, and strategic images are evoked and subjected to the compatibility test, leading to a judgment of fit. Unlike decision path #2, the outcome of the compatibility test, fit, is not about staying vs. leaving; rather, the compatibility test in decision path #3 leads to the deletion or survival of one or more specific alternatives. In particular, the images evoke an employee's assessment that a basic attachment or commitment could form with an alternative organization. The value image leads to judgments about whether each alternative organization has goals and values sufficiently compatible with one's own to suggest leaving the current organization (e.g., "If I quit my current job, could I see myself going to work for a timber company that practices the clear cutting of old growth forests?"). The trajectory image evinces judgments about whether each alternative offers adequate anticipated job satisfaction (e.g., "If I quit may current job, could I be happy working at alternative Company X?") and desire to belong (e.g., "If I quit nay current job, could I see myself staying with alternative Company X into the foreseeable future?") to indicate leaving the current organization. The strategic image manifests judgments about whether each alternative provides the environment, resources, and support for one to implement plans and attain goals (e.g., "If I move to Company X, will I still be able to attend college part time?").

In the unfolding model, the compatibility test leads to the initial employee judgment that the shock to the system can be easily integrated (i.e., is compatible with or fits) into the value, trajectory, or strategic images for each alternative and passes some acceptability threshold to suggest leaving the current organization. If the judgment regarding any of the three images is said to not-fit, the decision is usually to stay with the current organization rather than change the image. If the judgment regarding all three images for each alternative is said to fit, a second decision follows. In a compensatory mode, the employee then judges whether the three images for each alternative are collectively compatible or fit together. If the judgment is not-fit, the decision is, again, usually to stay. If the judgment is fit, the specific alternative survives and is entered into the next decision step, the profitability, test. Thus, the outcome of the compatibility test is a set of minimally acceptable alternatives.

If only one alternative survives the compatibility test, the single option is compared to the status quo. The subsequent decision concerns enacting the single option or maintaining the status quo. If multiple alternatives survive (i.e., image theory's multiple options; Beach & Mitchell, 1990; Mitchell & Beach, 1989), the unfolding model holds that the employee ap- plies an economically rational analysis of costs to benefits. In particular, the costs to benefits analysis of surviving options is compared to that of


the current organization. The option that nlaximizes one's economic utility (or preference function) becomes enacted by the employee. If the current organization maximizes one's utility, the decision is to stay. If an alternative maximizes one's utility, the decision is to enact that option, and the employee is hypothesized to quit soon afterwards. Etzioni (1961) has labeled this economic analysis as "calculative commitment." Beach and Mitchell (1990) and Mitchell and Beach (1989) have labeled this rational analysis as the "profitability test" and suggest that this process is frequently equiva- lent to the traditional models of subjective expected utilities.

tn sum, decision path #3 describes a step process that forces an employee to compare specific alternatives with the current organization. The initial step, precipitated by a shock to the system, forces an employee to assess whether commitnlent to an alternative organization could form and restllts in a set of minimally acceptable alternatives. The subsequent step rationally compares these alternatives. The central focus of decision path #3 is on leavh g the current organization for a specific alternative.

Examples. On occasion, an employee receives an unexpected and unsolicited job offer (e.g., an offer of a research chair at another major university). The shock to the system, the offer, leads to the decision of whether the offer is worth considering (e.g., <'Is the pay increase sufficient to command attention? ... . Is tile location adequately pleasant to consider leaving?"), and if the decision is yes, economically rational analysis is pre- sumed to follow (e.g., subjectively weighing and evaluating the costs of the move to oneself, one's family, and significant others vs. the benefits of increased pay, prestige, and work load). Quite commonly, employees receive unsolicited invitations to interview for another job (e.g., from a competitor). The shock to the system, the invitation, leads to the judgment of whether the invitation is worth pursuing (e.g., "Is it worth taking one day of vacation to interview?"), and if the answer is yes, analysis of costs to benefits follows (e.g., the likelihood of attaining the job vs. alienating one's current boss and coworkers). Finally, the shocks to the system of- fered as examples in decision path #2 can also produce decision path #3. Rather than immediately quitting, for instance, the discovery of insider trading or environmental pillage can also lead to the assessment of specific alternatives.

Frequency. In organizational life, one or more specific alternatives to the current organization present themselves faMy frequently. Surviving the compatibility and profitability tests, however, reduces the likelihood for the enactment of a particular alternative. Whereas decision path #1 is seen as occurring infrequently and whereas decision path #2 is seen as occurring


frequently, decision path #3 is hypothesized to occur somewhere between these two opposing points (e.g., somewhat frequently).

The Theorized Direct Effects of" Organizational Commitment and An- ticipated Job SatisJaction ol7 Vohmtaly TurnoveJ: Under decision path #3, the immediate effect of the shock to the system is the assessment of the likelihood that a basic attachment to a specific alternative organization would subsequently develop. The immediate outcome of the assessment is the judgment of minimal acceptability (i.e., the compatibility test), such that a surviving alternative can be further analyzed. Therefore, organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction immediately affect survival or deletion of an alternative. The immediate antecedent of voluntau turnover is, however, tile profitability test (e.g., calculative commitment). Thus, organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction are theorized to have indirect effects on volunta U turnover through the survival/deletion of viable alternative decision options.

Empirical Prediction of Vohmtaly Turnover fi'om Organizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Sati.sfaction. Because indirect effects were theorized, the empirical prediction of voluntary turnover fi'om commitment and anticipated satisfaction is hypothesized to be moderate. Furthermore, under conditions of decision path #3, voluntary turnover was also hypothesized to occur somewhat frequently. Unlike decision path #1 and #2, the expected variance in volunta O, turnover should be somewhat restricted. Tile empirical prediction of volunta~ 3, turnover should be slightly attenuated and, therefore, somewhat modest. Moreover, organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction (based on the current organization) should be strongly predictive of the survival/deletion of an alternative, and calculative commitment (i.e., the profitability test comparing the expected values of the alternatives) should be strongly predictive of voluntary turnover. Presumably, empirical tests of the unfolding model would include the logistic regression of voluntary turnover onto organizational commitment, anticipated job satisfaction, and calculative commitment. Under the conditions of decision path #3, the regression coefficient for calculative commitment should be significant and veu strong. The coefficients for organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction should be statistically significant but relatively modest in magnitude. Moreover, comparison of the regression coefficients should show that calcutative commitment has a significantly stronger effect than organizational commitment or anticipated job satisfaction.

Labor Mm'ket Effects. Whereas specific alternatives to the current organization were hypothesized to occur fairly frequently, surviving the compatibility and profitability tests was hypothesized to occur less frequently. Presumably, specific alternatives occur more often during good, rather than


bad, economic times. By inference, the likelihood of surviving the compatibility and profitability tests should be higher with a greater number of avail- able job alternatives. As such, the labor market is hypothesized to have a major influence in decision path #3.

Decision Path #4: No Shock to the System

Description. Unlike the prior decision paths, decision path #4 involves no distinctive shock to the system. No singular event jars mental deliberations toward recognition of prior shocks (decision path #1), reassessment of one's basic attachment to the current organization (decision path #2), or assessment of the likelihood of attachment to an alternative organization (decision path #3). Rather, the job, work setting, and current organization are perceived as relatively stable. Decision path #4 describes the perception of organizational life as an ongoing and evolving process with few distinguishing demarcations. For example, an individual once cap- tured the idea underlying decision path #4 through a description of his large West Coast employer to the senior author. The organization was described as a "place where you put in your time," and organizational life was characterized as "your hire on, you make journeyman, then you wait to retire."

Following a Poisson process of occurrence over time (e.g., Ewart, Ford, & Lin, 1974), a minority of employees will gradually come to assess their basic attachment to the organization. More specifically, they are theorized to evaluate their on-going organizational experiences (i.e., image theory's judgment of the status quo; Beach & Mitchell, 1990; Mitchell & Beach, 1989) through a compatibility test. Like decision path #2 and unlike decision path #3, the compatibility test in decision path #4 focuses on the current organization. Unlike the prior decision paths, the outcome of the compatibility test is job satisfaction (or dissatisfaction).

Under conditions of decision path #4, some employees are theorized to analyze the value or trajectory image. Over time, an employee or organization may change, such that images no longer fit. The trajectory image may lead to judgments about the sufficiency of one's anticipated job satisfaction within the current organization and about the likelihood for the duration of anticipated job satisfaction (e.g., "Is the anticipated job satisfaction likely to remain over time?") within the current organization. If either judgment is negative, the image is said to not-fit, and the image is


either changed or job dissatisfaction results. If both judgments are positive, the image is said to fit, and job satisfaction results.

The intermediate linkages between job satisfaction and voluntary turnover has received extensive theoretical (e.g., Mobley, 1977; Mobley et al., 1979; Price & Muelter, 1981, 1986; Steers & Mowday, 1981) and empirical (e.g., Griffeth & Horn, 1983; Horn & Griffeth, 1987; Hom, Katerberg, & Hulin, 1979) attention. Although not reviewed here, the unfolding model draws upon that huge body of theory and research. (See Hulin et al., 1985, for a review.) In the absence of a shock to the system and the presence of a not-fit judgment, the unfolding model holds that job dissatisfaction leads to lower organizational commitment (Griffeth & Horn, 1990), increased job search activities (Horn & Griffeth, 1991), and, ulti- mately, to voluntary turnover (Lee, Ashford, Walsh, & Mowday, 199t). Par- enthetically, the existing models are suggested to apply primarily to situations characterized by decision path #4.

In sum, decision path #4 describes the gradual evaluation of the job. The occurrence of the completed evaluation, leading to judgments about job satisfaction, is hypothesized to follow a Poisson distribution. Based on a large body of research, job satisfaction is linked to organizational commitment, job search activities, and voluntary turnover. Moreover, the central focus of decision path #4 is on the current organization.

Examples. Manual, assembly line, and clerical jobs are often associated, for example, with feelings of monotony and/or repetitiveness. Such feelings quickly lead to job boredom (Lee, 1986), which, in turn, directly lead to job dissatisfaction (Smith, 1955). Moreover, many jobs involve demands that remain relatively constant over time. The job holder, however, may grow intellectually and find that the mental chal- lenge of the job diminishes over time, leading to job dissatisfaction (Locke, 1976).

Frequency. Despite a negative overtone to decision path #4, most national surveys indicate a generally job-satisfied work force (MoNey, 1982). By inference, most employees within decision path #4 also appear to hold an adequate level of job ,satisfaction that likely minimizes thoughts of quitting. Because shocks to the system are hypothesized to occur frequently and because national surveys indicate relatively high levels of job satisfaction, decision path #4 is theorized to occur only somewhat frequently.

The Theorized Direct Effects of Organizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Satisfaction on Vohmta~y TurnoveJ: Under decision path #4, the preponderance of a large body of theory and research indicates that the immediate effects of organizational commitment and anticipated job


satisfaction are job search activities. Therefore, commitment and anticipated satisfaction are hypothesized to have indirect effects on voluntary turnover.

Empirical Prediction o f Voluntary Turnover from Organizational Commitment and Anticipated Job Satisfaction. Because indirect effects were theorized, the empirical prediction of turnover from commitment and anticipated satisfaction is hypothesized to be moderate. Furthermore, under conditions of decision path #4, voluntary turnover was also hypothesized to occur somewhat frequently. Like decision path #3, the expected variance in voluntary turnover should be somewhat restricted; the empirical prediction of voluntary turnover should also be slightly attenuated and, therefore, somewhat modest. Moreover, commitment and anticipated satisfaction should be strongly predictive of job search activities, which is compatible with the existing literature (Griffeth & Horn, 199(I; Lee, 1988; Mathieu & Zajac, 1990),

Labor Market Effects. As specified in the traditional models that link satisfaction to turnover (e.g., MoNey, 1977; Price & Mueller, 1986; Steers & Mowday, 1981), the labor market is expected to have a moderately im- portant influence, because job search behaviors should be strongly affected by the availability of jobs.

RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS

It is beyond the scope of tile present article to offer a comprehensive research agenda. Instead, examples of empirical issues that may prove valu- able are suggested. Then, examples of conceptual issues that require greater refinement are also identified.

Empb'ical Examples. First, do the four decision paths exist and occur with the frequency suggested in Table I? For example, random samples of turnover incidents might be observed over time. The surrounding circumstances of these turnover incidents might be described through simple checklists or interviews administered to the leavers soon after quitting, leading to the identification of decision paths. Presuming successful identification, the actual frequency of decision paths could be compared to their expected values (indicated in Table I) via a simple chi-square test. Second, do the decision paths differ as specified in Table I? For example, decision path #2, shock to tile system with no specific job alternative in mind, might be directly compared to decision path #3, shock to the system with specific job alternatives in mind. The following simple logistic regression might be estimated: Y = a + bLXi + b2X2 + b.~X, where Y = voluntary turnover, Xj = dummy code with 0 for decision path #2 and


1 for decision path #3, X2 = organizational commitment, and X3 = anticipated job satisfaction. If the unfolding model holds, two conditions should occur. When bl = 0 (decision path #2 occurs), b 2 and bs should be significant and very large. When b i = t (decision path #3 occurs), b 2 and b~ should be significant, modest in magnitude, and significantly lower than when b 1 = 0.

Conceptual Eocamples. First, how should a shock to the system be conceptualized? To simplify our thinking, we implicitly treated shock to the system as a dichotomous event. That is, shock was implied to occur or not to occur, Among sociologists who specialize in dichotomous data, it has been suggested that simple dichotomies (as well as categorical data in general) likely represent "preliminary thhlking," ill-specified constructs, or sin> ply poor theorizing (e.g., Blalock, 1982). We are sympathetic to this view and encourage conceptual work that more fully specifies a shock to the system as a continuous variable. For example, how do shocks become no- ticed? Do shocks have threshold levels? Are these threshold levels a random variable and normally dis tr ibuted? Second, how should fit be conceptualized? Neither image theory nor our unfolding model specifies the exact nature of fit. Although we again implied a dichotomous construct, one could argue that fit may be linear, follow an ogive (i.e, a tilted S- shaped) curve, or constitute a discontinuous function (e.g., Sheridan, 1985). With Blalock's (1982) observation on categorical data in mind, we again encourage more conceptual work that clarifies the nature of fit.

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

In a recent review of the literature on information processing, Lord and Maher (1990) concluded that researchers seems to hold very narrow implicit theories of how people process information in actual work settings. Correspondingly, formal theories and empirical research have been unduly restrictive and focused primarily on very rational processes of handling information. As a result, the existing theory and research on information processing offer very limited help in guiding future research, theory development, and managerial practice. In a similar fashion, many of Lord and Maher's observations can be applied to the theory and research on the effects of organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction on voluntary employee turnover. Like Lord and Maher, our observation has been that existing theories on voluntary turnover presume and focus on a very rational decision process starting fi-om the employee's dissatisfaction with the job and leading to voluntarily leaving the organization. As a con-


sequence, a very large body of research has provided modest support for the various theories derived from this rational process.

A major premise underlying the proposed unfolding model is that the existing theories of voluntary turnover validly apply to a very limited number of organizational situations. As a result, the modest, though consistent, empirical support for the existing theories can best be explained by their low ecological validity. In other words, the existing theories validly explain the linkage from organizational commitment and anticipated job satisfaction to voluntary turnover in a few actual work settings. Therefore, a model was proposed that purports to capture more of the organization's reality and to apply to more organizational situations than existing theories. Thus, four decision paths were theorized to capture more of the evolutionary (hence the term "unfolding") conflttelTce of personal, situational, and acci- dental forces on the decision to leave an organization than current models. In particular, current theories and research on voluntary turnover are asserted to apply validly tinder conditions primarily represented by decision paths #3 and #4. Under conditions primarily represented by decision paths #1 and #2, current theories of voluntary turnover are asserted not to apply validly. Thus, the empirical research testing the current theories should yield much stronger restllts if restricted to situations described by decision paths #3 and #4.

Hulin et al. (1985) and Steele and Griffeth (1989) have commented on the inconsistent research for the effects of perceived job alternatives on voluntary turnover. The unfolding model may offer an explanation for the inconsistent research. In the unfolding model, the labor market is theorized to hold a different role in each decision path. In decision path #1, the labor market is theorized to have a moderating effect on voluntary turnover. In decision path #2, the labor market is seen to have virtually no effect. In decision path #3, the labor market is hypothesized to affect the frequency of specific job alternatives. In decision path #4 the labor market is theorized to affect job search activities. By inference, perceived job alternatives should correspond to the actual and perceived labor markets and differ by decision path as well. In short, the unfolding model may suggest refinements to the influences of perceived job alternatives upon the decision to leave the organization.

tn addition to greater ecological validity, the proposed model develops at least two additional directions for the research on voluntary employee turnover. First, most research has insufficiently considered the precipitating event that prompts the turnover process. Inertia and habit, for example, likely play a major role in job tenure. Yet their influence on voluntary turnover is only minimally considered in the current research; what might shake employees from their lethargy? Shocks to the system may

Unflllding Effects 119

offer a useful conceptual mechanism with which to address the roles of inertia and habit. Second, most research has assumed a fairly straightfor- ward sequence of (t) evaluation of the job, (2) job attitudes, and (3) turnover behavior. The amount and type of mental deliberations occurring during the turnover process have also been ill-specified. In the unfolding model, much greater specification is theorized, leading to the consideration of different modes of the turnover decision.

In closing, it is worth repeating that the unfolding model should not be seen as a competitor to existing theories. Rather, the proposed model should be seen as a supplement that encourages further conceptual, empirical, and creative ideas.

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