the solar future de - manfred bächler "will grid parity have been achieved in europe’s...
DESCRIPTION
Manfred Bächler; CTO, Phoenix Solar AGTRANSCRIPT
Will Grid Parity be achieved in Europe by 2013?
Manfred Bächler Phoenix Solar AG
June 8, 2010
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Table of Contents
1. Company Profile
2. BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010
3. Outlook 2013
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Business Model
Solar Modules BOS-Components
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Offering to the Customer
Power Plants
Phoenix Solar’s business model covers all PV system sizes: • Components & Systems 1kWp - 1 MWp • Power Plants > 500 kWp
* not to scale
Power Plant Sales
Segments
Investor Business
10 MWp+ 5 MWp 1 MWp 500 kWp Large-Scale
1 kWp* 20 kWp Commercial Residential
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Worldwide Company Locations in 8 Countries and 3 Continents
Phoenix Solar Pte Ltd,
Singapore (Since Dec. 2006)
Phoenix Solar S.r.l., Italy
(Since July 2006)
Phoenix Solar Pty Ltd,
Australia (Since July 2008)
Phoenix Solar E.P.E., Greece
(Since June 2008)
All 100% owned subsidiaries, except Phoenix Solar Singapore (75%) and Phoenix Solar Oman (70%)
Phoenix Solar AG, Germany
(Since Nov. 1999)
Phoenix Solar S.L., Spain
(Since Apr. 2006)
Phoenix Solar SAS, France
(Since Sept. 2009)
Phoenix Solar L.L.C, Oman
(Since Dec. 2009)
Phoenix Solar, USA
(coming H1 2010)
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Product Mix: Thin-film vs. Crystalline Modules
Crystalline
Thin-film
200MWp sold/installed in 2009
472 M€ Turnover 2009
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Table of Contents
1. Company Profile
2. BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010
3. Outlook 2013
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Cost Drivers for Large Systems (Fixed-Tilted, Ground-Based) – 2005 status
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Cost Structure Development – Thin Film
2006 (3.9-4.1€/Wp) 2010 (2.4-2.6€/Wp)
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Cost Structure Development – Crystalline
2006 (3.9-4.2€/Wp) 2010 (3.9-4.2€/Wp)
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TCO over 20 years – Germany (TF)
2005 2010
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Table of Contents
1. Company Profile
2. BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010
3. Outlook 2013
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Development of Prices, TCO by 2013 for large scale power plants
Assuming a 10-11% reduction in FiT in Germany (and no significant change in BOS and TCO, 30 yrs lifetime): 17-18 €-Cent/kWh @ 1.650€/kWp Sales Price… Very hard to imagine at the moment (other markets will pay better prices in 2013….)
In Spain, Sicily, Greece, etc… TCO of about 15 €-Cent/kWh @ 2.100€/kWp Sales Prices (assuming “german” cost structures for project development, implementation and O&M)
TCO of much less than 10 €-Cent/kWh are hard to imagine for Southern Europe (“modules almost for free”) – even beyond 2013 (O&M costs do not really depend on FiT or kWh-prices….) – 5€-Cent/kWh really needed by then?
A completely amortized PV plant can generate at 4-5€-Cent/kWh in Germany and less than 3€-Cent/kWh in Spain (@german cost structure)
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Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?
Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position Demand vs. Generation curve – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position Weaker grids will also promote PV against (conventional or CSP) power
generation in large plants – again “advantage” for Southern Europe
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Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?
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Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?
Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position Demand vs. Generation curve – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position Weaker grids will also promote PV against (conventional) power generation in
large plants – again “advantage” for Southern Europe The higher the electricity rates the better for PV – a wide variety in Europe (and
also even within Southern Europe) from country to country. But also within segments (residential, commercial, industrial)
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Electricity Rates (Residential)
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Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When? Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position Demand vs. Generation curve – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position Weaker grids will also promote PV against (conventional) power generation in
large plants – again “advantage” for Southern Europe The higher the electricity rates the better for PV – a wide variety in Europe (and
also even within Southern Europe) Since in most cases (but not always – see Singapore, India, etc..) the electricity
rates for residentials are the highest and O&M costs are modest the residential sector may be in a pole position for Grid Parity
But: How to make a teacher to hedge electricity prices in a volatile (sometimes regulated) market for 30 years who enjoyed a fixed FiT regime (20 years) for the past years?
Commercial systems in countries with with an adoption of the US PPA models, high internal consumption of PV electricity and minimum O&M costs are more promising….
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Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?
The most important (or the only relevant) question:
Who has a problem which can be solved by PV? Where can add PV value? (since PV will not be a financial vehical only any much like under FiT) - the (residential) consumer? - the commerical/industrial consumer? - the operator of the distribution grid? - the energy “producer”? - the government?
The answer to this questions depends on a couple of constants (which are more or less fixed like solar insolation, etc..) and variables (which change fast such as tax credits, subsidies (also on conventional energy) and may be different from country to country or even inbetween states/regions
Grid Parity is a moving target... …and will not happen in ppt or xls but only in the real world
