the social bases of conspiracy theories

The Social Bases of Conspiracy TheoriesA L L Y O U N E E D T O K N O W A B O U T …

W W W . P E T E R A C H T E R B E R G . C O M

http://www.peterachterberg.com/

JFK: who’s responsible for his death?

Conspiracy theories?

Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?Social bases of

conspiracy theories

Is the media controlling what we see?


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Is the media controlling who we are?


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

9/11: who is responsible?


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

What is in those vaccinations against theswine flu?


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Are aliens already among us?


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Trump?


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories in the West

•Belief that ‘behind the societal curtains’ evil, malevolent groups are indoctrinating individuals and/ or governing society

•“Agency panic” (Melley, 2000)

•Three central elements: “nothing is what it seems”, “there is no such thing as coincidence” and, of course, the “truth is out there’” (Barkun, 2003)


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories in the West

Developments….

•Popularizing: from subculture to mainstream (Knight, 2000; Kellner 2002)

•Normalization: from irrational pathology (e.g. Popper, 1948) to hyper-rationality (Melley, 2000; Harambam, 2017)

•Transformation: from secure to insecure paranoia (Knight, 2000)


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

DataCROCUS Survey on Worldviews in the Netherlands III: Religion, Politics, and Anti-Institutionalism. Rotterdam/Tilburg: CentERData. (Achterberg, P., Manevska, K., De Koster, W., Aupers, S., Mascini, P., & Van der Waal, J. ;2012)

◦ N=1,302

◦ Response rate: 76.1%

◦ Representative for the Dutch population (after weighing)


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Measuring affinity with conspiracytheoriesNot directly–

◦ Impartial measure

◦ Low chance of variation in affinity

◦ So – asked about people who say stuff about:◦ 9/11

◦ Swine flu

◦ Landing on the moon

◦ Death of princess Di

◦ Powerful elites


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Factoranalyse


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

The social bases of support forconspiracy theories


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Modernization and its discontentsAnomie and Alienation: The twin maladies of modernity (Zijderveld, 2002)

Emile Durkheim: erosion of community and anomie

Max Weber: rationalization of modern institutions and alienation (institutional distrust)

Conspiracy theories: Find meaning and purpose in anonymous systems and events (the truth is out there)


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories

Cultural discontents and educationallevel

•Elchardus & Smits (2002) – and many, many more studies in the

(inter)national research literature:

•Institutional discontents and Anomie

•Especially among the lower educated!


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories


Educational bases?

Secular? Political bases?

Social bases of conspiracy

theories


Educational bases?


Higher educatedAffinity with conspiracy

theories

-0,25

Controlled for gender, age, religiosity, income

Institutional distrust

Anomia

0,28

0,25

-0,13

CT’s as religion for secular people?

Disenchantment & Cultural rationalization (Weber, 1978)

Conspiracy theories find meaning in

just about all phenomena (cf. Aupers, 2012; Melley, 2000).

Secular people:

Atheists (rationality)

Agnostics (not sure)

New Age Spirituals (Anti-Institutionalist, things happen for a reason)


theories


Educational bases?


These differences can be explained away by anomie and institutional distrust

Mean affinity with

ct’s

N

Agnostic 2,02 239

Atheists 1,77 292

Spiritual believers 2,03 444

Traditional believers 1,88 225

F 8,06*** 1200


theories


Educational bases?


Boosting educational conflicts?Agnostic Atheists Spiritual

believers

Traditional

believers

Education -0,20** -0,15* -0,22** -0,13 n.s.

Mean score affinity for lower

educated

2,21 1,98 2,23 1,92

Mean score affinity for higher

educated

1,81 1,60 1,84 1,74


theories


Educational bases?


Affinity with political backgroundThree major findings:

1. Non-voter are more likely to support conspiracy theories (Olliver & Wood, 2014 )◦ Experimental evidence by Jolley and Douglas (2014)


theories


Educational bases?



2. Right-wing voters will on average support conspiracy theories more◦ Voter for Republicans will support these theories more than republicans(Olliver & Wood, 2014)


theories


Educational bases?



3. Supporters for populist rightist and - leftist parties will support conspiracy theories more◦ Van Prooijen et al. (2014) extremist ideology

◦ Krouwel & Van Prooijen (2014) Dutch PVV and Socialist Party voters


theories


Educational bases?


Mechanism 1Cultural discontents:

◦ Anomie (Srole, 1956) – feeling threatened by the complexities of the contemporary social and cultural order

◦ Politics:◦ Lower turnout rates among anomic people (McDill, 1962; Erbe, 1964; Hövermann et al., 2014)

◦ Vote more for Republicans (Templeton, 1966) and for Populist Rightist parties (Arzheimer, 2011; Houtman and Achterberg, 2010).

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ Cultural Rationalization (Weber, 1963 [1922])

◦ Strong relationships: (Abalakina‐Paap et al., 1999, Van Prooijen et al, 2015)


theories


Educational bases?


Mechanisms 2 and 3Institutional distrust:

◦ Politics:◦ Lower turnout rates among those with higher levels of institutional distrust (Karp & Banducci, 2008)

◦ Vote more for off-centre political parties (Mair, 1999, Lau, 1985; Achterberg & Mascini, 2013)

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ Institutional order is always criticised (Knight, 2000, Melley, 2000)

Institutional knowledge:◦ Politics:

◦ People with less knowledge: less engaged and lower turnout (Galston 2001; Larcinese, 2007)

◦ No clear connection to rightist of leftist voting behavior

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ It can be argued otherwise, but: Stempel et al. (2007): Those with less knowledge, believe more.


theories


Educational bases?


Mechanism 4Egalitarianism:

◦ Politics:◦ Vote more for Democrats (Houtman et al. 2008) and for Populist Leftist parties (Achterberg & Houtman, 2006).

◦ Conspiracy theories:◦ are generally focused on evil elites that operate within modern politics, democracies, but also within modern corporations

◦ Historical evidence: communism associated with strong fear of conspiracies (Van Prooijen et al, 2015)


theories


Educational bases?


Results NL


theories


Educational bases?


In conclusionModernity related discontents - anomie and institutional distrust very important!

Explains why:

Lower educated…

Agnostics…

Spiritual believers…

Non-voters and extreme leftist and rightist voters…

…have more affinity with conspiracy theories!


Educational bases?


conspiracy theories


Educational bases?



theories


Educational bases?


the social bases of conspiracy theories

Presentations & Public Speaking