the small states of the south caucasus: georgia, armenia and azerbaijan dr. robia charles small...
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THE SMALL STATES OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS:
GEORGIA, ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
DR. ROBIA CHARLES
Small States, Regional Integration and Globalization at the University of Iceland
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AGENDA
IntroductionPolitical IntegrationRelations with the EU and NATOTerritorial ConflictsEconomic Integration
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INTRODUCTION
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Early 1800s
1922-1991
1991
Incorporation into the Russian Empire
First Republic
Union Republics within the
USSR
1918-1920/192
1
Independence
SOUTH CAUCASUS: AN INTRODUCTION
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6
Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan
Religion 95% Armenian Apostolic
84% Georgian Orthodox, 10%
Muslim
60% Shia, 30% Sunni, 3% Orthodox
LanguageArmenian
հայերեն լեզունGeorgian
ქართულ ენაზეAzeri
Azərbaycan dili
Ethnic groups
98% Armenian, 1.3% Russian
83% Georgian, 7% Azeri, 6%
Armenian, 2% Russian
90% Azeri, Lezgin 2.2%, Russian 2%
Population 3 million 4.5 million 9.5 million
Size comparison
Belgium (29,743 km2)
Lithuania (69,700 km2)
Austria (86,600 km2)
QUICK FACTS
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GEORGIA
Presidential republicWestern integration Independence from
RussiaSouth Ossetia and
AbkhaziaTransitBlack Sea
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ARMENIAPresidential republicLandlocked, transportation
and economic isolationMilitary and economic
dependence on Russia*Good relations with IranNagorno KarabakhTurkey
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AZERBAIJAN
Presidential republic Tenuous alliance with
TurkeyEnergy supplierNagorno KarabakhCaspian Sea
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POLITICAL INTEGRATION*
The South Caucasus between Russia and the EU (the Near Abroad)
Rejoining the world as independent states after 1991
Behind on democratic reform
EU
European Neighborhood Policy>Eastern Partnership (EaP)*
Bilateral association agreements
Sectoral cooperation
Institution-building programs
Civil society organizations
NATO*
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EASTERN PARTNERSHIP (EAP)*
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RELATIONS WITH THE EU AND NATO
Georgia Strong desire to join the
EU
Strong desire to join NATO
Desire for independence and to have good relations with Russia
Azerbaijan Lower desire to join the
EU
Little desire to join NATO
EU supports opening the border
A closed border with Turkey, conflict over Nagorno Karabakh impedes integration into NATO and independence from Russia
Armenia Lower desire to join the
EU
Little desire to join NATO
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
26
26
38
28
22
34
22
23
13
5
6
2
6
6
13
16
11
To what extent would you support your country’s membership in the European Union? (%)
(CB 2012)Fully support Rather support Equally support and don’t support Rather not support Don't support at allDon't know
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Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
15
23
34
18
22
33
26
23
14
11
8
3
12
7
3
18
18
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To what extent would you support your country’s membership in NATO? (%)
(CB 2012)Fully support Rather support Equally support and don’t support Rather not support Don't support at allDon't know
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3 TERRITORIAL CONFLICTS*South Ossetia (population of
55,000)158,000 displaced
Abkhazia (population of 242,862)133,000 displaced
Nagorno Karabakh (population of 46,573)30,000 killed and 1 million
displaced
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RUSSIA-GEORGIA WAR (2008)*
Ongoing disagreement since 1991
May 2008: Russia sends troops to Abkhazia
August 2008: Georgia sends troops to South Ossetia
Russia sends troops to border and air strikes South Ossetia
Russian tanks move into Georgia proper
Ceasefire brokered by Sarkozy
Russian troops withdraw and recognizes the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Administrative boundary line (ABL) created with Russian troops on one side and EUMM on the other
Georgia sees this as Russian occupation (20% of Georgian territory)
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NAGORNO KARABAKH
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NAGORNO KARABAKH
1921: Stalin NKAO in Azerbaijani SSR with majority Armenian population
1988: NK seeks to be part of Armenian SSR. Ethnic swap begins. Moscow declares martial law in NKAO
1992: NK declares itself an independent republic. Armenian military begin to take villages
1991-1994: 30,000 killed, 350,000 Armenian refugees, 600,000 Azeri IDPs
1994: Ceasefire accord signed (Russian mediation). Minsk Process under the OSCE has failed*
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QReNxbw_62s
THE PASSENGER (SHORT FILM)
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Azerbaijan
Armenia
26
38
25
23
22
9
19
12
7
17
1
1
How likely is it to find a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict within the next 5 years by peaceful
negotiation? (%)(CB 2011)
Very likely Rather likely Rather unlikelyVery unlikely DK RA
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Azerbaijan
Armenia
19
11
23
10
28
19
19
36
10
23
1
1
How likely is it to find a solution to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict within the next 5 years by force?
(%)(CB 2011)
Very likely Rather likely Rather unlikelyVery unlikely DK RA
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TURKISH-ARMENIAN BORDER (1993)
292012
2010
2012
2010
2012
2010
Eff
ect
on
in
tern
al
po
liti
cs
49
49
23
12
14
7
4.8
8
11.4
26
12.6
22
28
32
39
44
47
58
17.7
10
25.9
18
26.5
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ARMENIAWhat effect will the opening of borders with Turkey
have on...(%)(CB 2011 and 2012)
Beneficial No effect Harmful Don't know
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Don't knowOpposeEqually support and oppose
Support
8
35
16
41
ARMENIASupport of opening the Turkish-Armenian border
with no preconditions (%)(CB 2012)
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ECONOMIC INTEGRATION USSR economy vs. market economies* Survival in the international economy is based on local
niche economies: Energy in Azerbaijan
Energy transport in Georgia
Manufacturing in Armenia
Commonwealth of Independent States (1991)* Eurasian Economics Union (2015) = alternative to the EU’s
neighborhood policy
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ECONOMIES
Georgia Inefficient industrial and
agricultural sectors
Service sector is 69% of GDP
Oil and gas transport
GDP $16 billion
GDP pc $7,165
WTO member
Azerbaijan Manufacturing
Outdated industry sector
Scarce natural resources
GDP $10 billion
GDP pc %7,774
Remittances (21% of GDP)
WTO member
Armenia Natural gas and oil
Oil rents is 42% of GDP
GDP $67 billion
GDP pc $17,139
Over $1 billion military budget
WTO consideration
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GEORGIA*
Trade and economic pact with the EU (2014) Poor relations with Russia
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ARMENIA
3 Stages of economic development since independence Post-transition progress
Qualitative stagnation
Hopeless stagnation
Russia is the largest economic partner and controls the transport and energy sector*
2 million Armenians in Russia, $1 million in remittances annually
2013 intention to join Eurasian Customs Union
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AZERBAIJAN*
No intention to join the Eurasian Customs UnionAgricultural sector would be
destroyed by cheap products from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
Losing independence over energy policy
Nagorno KarabakhRussian dominance
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GEOPOLITICS*
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GEOPOLITICSSouth Caucasus energy is perceived as a threat to
RussiaRussia supplies Armenia with gas via GeorgiaGeorgia receives power from the Metsamor nuclear
power plant Armenia supplied with Russian uranium that is flown over Georgia
Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have plans to synchronize their energy grids
