the second age of enlightenment - lux research...
TRANSCRIPT
The Second Age of Enlightenment
1
Mark Bünger, Research Director
Lux Research, Inc.
@MarkBungerLux
The Second Age of Enlightenment
Some 350 years ago, European culture was transformed by the Enlightenment – an intellectual, rational movement that emphasized the light of reason and science over traditional sources of authority. Today, vast amounts of data and analytical tools are similarly illuminating every aspect of our lives, from deep inside our bodies to our home, friends, work, city, and global society. In this new age of enlightenment, we must prepare for the effects of information everywhere – what products and services to make, what business models matter, and which established organizations get overthrown.
2
The Enlightenment (ca 1650-1780)
Experiment over faith Reason over tradition Openness over exclusion Freedom over authority
3
The Enlightenment (ca 1650-1780)
Experiment over faith Reason over tradition Openness over exclusion Freedom over authority
4
Second
#
#
#
#
^ -----------
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
now .com
Agenda
The signs a new Age of Enlightenment is here
After Enlightenment, Revolutions
What is next and how we get there
5
Agenda
The signs a new Age of Enlightenment is here
After Enlightenment, Revolutions
What is next and how we get there
6
A new Age of Enlightenment is here: 3 clear signs
1. Sleevely: Feeding Bottles that Track How Much Your Baby Drinks
“The world’s first device and mobile app that lets you monitor, track and improve your baby’s
feeding habits.”
2. Quantified Babies: Quantified Self for Babies
“We are parents who quantify ourselves, using every tool from Fitbit to the Withings. We want to apply the same rigor to those who can’t apply it to
themselves: our young children.”
3. Whistle, Quantified Dog device
“Whistle gives you a summary of your dog's day highlighting the details that matter. WhistleGPS
uses both GPS and sub-GHz cellular technology to add on-demand location monitoring to Whistle’s flagship activity tracking gadget that syncs with
iOS or Android devices.”
7
Since new parents and dog owners were not neurotic enough already…
What are some more signs?
Everything is illuminated – by data
8
Everything is illuminated – by data – from Things
The internet of Things (IoT) means:
Sensors everywhere from high to low Quantified self, Smart homes, Connected/ autonomous cars, Industrie 4.0, Precision Ag, Intelligent cities …
Integration and intelligence Depth cameras and audio AIs
Fill in data gaps, past and future
Count gestures, sense feelings
Stream your life online
Illumination, integration… interface Anything can control anything else
9
The material world increasingly works like the information world
See “Seeing the Value in Machine Vision Partnerships” Nov 2014
Livestream your life Ambient AI: image and speech recognition
Internet of Everyone: pets, babies, cities, you
Control neighbor’s car Button computer Tractor phone Wearable drone Press any button on the internet
Internet of Everyone: What happens when pervasive sensors quantify our inner, outer, and collective selves?
What will consumers themselves think of this?
How will expanding and maturing IoT change consumers and companies’ relationship to them?
How can market researchers use this data effectively while meeting privacy and legal requirements?
10
Internet of Everyone
Intelligent cities
Smart homes
Quantified self
Market research
May 4-5 San Francisco
The Enlightenment = the original open innovation
You already know how to do this
11
Encyclopedia: access to knowledge
Whole Earth Catalog: access to tools
Salons and coffeehouses
Hackathons and coffeehouses
Voltaire Stallman
Free all the Things!
“At Peachy Printer we develop Libre Software (freedom respecting) because we believe it's the right thing to do. If you're unfamiliar with what that means, here's a quick rundown of the 4 freedoms:
1. The freedom to run the program as you wish, for any purpose.
2. The freedom to study how the program works, and change it so it does your computing as you wish.
3. The freedom to redistribute copies so you can help your neighbour.
4. The freedom to distribute copies of your modified versions to others.
To learn more about Libre Software, please visit www.fsf.org”
12
3D printer Peachy Printer Open design
User-defined setup
Give people knowledge, skills, and intellectual property to open up technologies and markets
Samsung Artik – Ardunio IoT developer platform
GE’s Raspberry Pi and Ubuntu-based ChillHub “A refrigerator with USB capabilities and WiFi connected. This will give us a platform to create awesome new add-on products like a butter softener compartment, food scale/weight sensor, deodorizer, auto-fill water pitcher, temperature modules, baby bottle IR, external speakers, voice control, etc. … From niche to mass market, ChillHub will allow the developer community to create new devices that could benefit all refrigerator users.”
13
Then: overpriced underfeatured closed smart fridge
Now: open tech platform of chips for external developers
Home appliances/IoT going Open source
Give people knowledge, skills, and intellectual property to open up technologies and markets 2
Tesla EV patents “belong to you”
“Technology leadership is not defined by
patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a
determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate
the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source
philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this
regard.”
Autodesk – open 3D printing
Spark - Open software platform
Ember - Open 3D printer
Polar Resin 48 - Open resin
“Today we're sharing the formulation of PR48 under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike license, the same license Arduino uses to share their design files. We're explicitly inviting you to understand, remix, and remake our resin.”
14
Competitive suicide! Or murder?
Patent and product giveaways
Agenda
The signs a new Age of Enlightenment is here
After Enlightenment, Revolutions
What is next and how we get there
15
Why Revolutions follow Enlightenment
Whatever happened to…
Experiment over Faith
Reason over Tradition
Openness over Exclusion
Freedom over Authority
16
“Enlightenment” is actually a strategic
power play
Signs of the Revolution: Keurig gets its head handed back
17
2012 K-Cup patent expires
2013 Cheap competitor cups cut into Keurig sales
2014 2.0 cups get digital rights management (DRM)
Company discontinues reusable cup
2015 Hackers break DRM
Customers flee
Stock plummets
CEO reverses course
Signs of the Revolution 2: Taxi cartels meet the guillotine
IoT + Big Data means that any industry can be “ubered”
18
Bloomberg’s “Taxi of Tomorrow”
Et tu, IKEA?
19
There’s a pattern to revolutions – and it’s everywhere
20
Wherever there is stasis,
revolution is near
King vs. Church
Airlines vs. travel agents
Publishers vs. authors
Record labels vs. artists
Retailers vs. CPG manufacturers
Insurers/Ntl health vs. doctors vs. pharma
Carmakers vs. suppliers and dealers
Etc etc etc…
Stasis •Established players in self-
serving, tense balance of power and money •People/customers/patients
suffer
Tools •Arm the people with
information and tools
Revolution •Destroy the balance,
redistribute wealth and growth
Web
Mobile
IoT
Smart factory: what’s the IoT equivalent of the mobile phone?
1. Tool
2. Visor – machine vision
3. Glove – accelerometer, thermometer, position/movement
4. Watch, ring, glasses…
5. Other tools, brackets, etc
6. The part
7. Smart buildings - the factory itself
8. Worker’s clothing (smart textiles)
9. Others….?
21
1
2
3
4 5
6
7
8
Smart factory: what’s the Big Data equivalent of Uber?
Advanced manufacturing programs?
Industrie 4.0?
GE’s Predix platform?
Distributed manufacturing + “Digital logistics” = flexibility+ speed + scale
Dragon Innovation, Local Motors, etc
A million microfactories
Amazon logistics are legendary
• Bought Kiva for $775 million
UberCargo is already a thing
Google maps + delivery
Uber, Amazon, Google all spending $100M+ on autonomous delivery systems (land and air)
22
vs.
Agriculture is ripe for Revolution
Farmers don’t own seeds, we do Genetic IP rules: no copy or change
Farmers don’t own tractors, we do Can’t fix or modify software
23
Precision agriculture = IoT + Big Data Who will own the data? (take a guess)
Enlightenment breaking biotech’s anachronistic, contradictory, sometimes silly genetic rights and rules
Property: Who owns genetic codes? Diamond v. Chakrabarty: GM organism was ruled to be an invention (engineered genes) not a discovery, was allowed
Myriad Genetics / American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU): breast-cancer related BRCA gene
GFP (green fluorescent protein) patent thicket
Open Source Seed Initiative; seed libraries blocked by PA Dept of Ag
iGEM Open Parts Registry – concerns about freedom to use
Henrietta Lacks, Cartagena Protocol – people “own” their own genes and those of their land
Ethics/safety: Should genetic modification be outlawed – or taught widely? ETC Group tries to stop Glowing Plant Kickstarter crowdfunding campaign
• Plant contains same fluorescence gene as GloFish, which are legal (except in CA)
Speech: Privacy and right-to-know U.S. Supreme Court in Maryland v. King: police don’t need a warrant to take genetic samples, which are now “as simple and normal as taking a photograph.”
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) prohibits 23andMe from giving medically-related genetic data directly to consumers
24
Lux workshop: The genetic revolution gains tools and social skills from the digital revolution
Keynote speaker Tim O’Reilly on what genetic privacy, open source, and biohacking can learn from the Digital Revolution
25
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Kay, Xerox PARC
Genetic technology
Information technology
Can open source, hacker biotech become as dominant as open source software?
“A BEAUTIFUL FUTURE - Join Us!
We are independent scientists working to make a more beautiful future. The conversation about
biotechnology is full of cliches and bumper sticker statements. We're starting a revolution.
There is more to science than publications and profit. We believe in wonder. We believe in
accessibility, transparency, and sustainability. We believe that biotechnology can be used thoughtfully
to build an astonishingly beautiful world.”
Ushahidi (Kenya) “Revolutionizing the way information flows”
Platform initially developed in 2008 to map post-election violence in Kenya
Now used for crowdsourced precision ag, election monitoring, and more
Open source and crowd model in crop insurance, seeds, equipment, and more
26
Plant demo!
27
1. White petunias produce little/no flower pigments (anthocyanins, AN)
2. Researchers engineered a new gene sequence with AN pigment genes + rat glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene
3. GR prevents AN from being produced
4. Dip flowers in steroid DEX
5. DEX hits GR, releasing AN
6. Colors are back
Previous experiments had shown that an1- petals lack transcripts of at least nine structural anthocyanin genes (see, e.g., Quattrocchio et al., 1993; Kroon et al., 1994; de Vetten et al., 1999) and of one potential regulatory gene, Pmyb27, which encodes a protein with similarity to MYB-domain transcription factors (Mur, 1995). Thus, AN1 might induce dfr transcription directly (e.g., as part of the transcription complex on the dfr promoter) or indirectly (by inducing the expression of an intermediate regulator such as MYB27).
To distinguish between these possibilities, we constructed the 35S-an1 gr gene, in which the 35S promoter drives the expression of a chimeric protein consisting of the complete AN1 sequence and the ligand binding domain of the rat glucocorticoid receptor (GR), and introduced this gene into the an12 line W242. Treatment with dexamethasone (DEX), a synthetic steroid, was expected to induce AN1GR activity by releasing the protein from an inhibitory cytoplasmic complex rather than by stimulating de novo synthesis.
The Plant Cell September 2000 vol. 12 no. 9 1619-1631 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1105/tpc.12.9.1619
GR AN GR anti-inflammation
AN
DEX DEX
petunia
rat engineered protein
DEX
Agenda
The signs a new Age of Enlightenment is here
After Enlightenment, Revolutions
What is next and how we get there
28
What’s the difference between war and revolution?
29
Wars you win with weapons and armies Revolutions you win with the people
Getting this Enlightenment right Every industry and market is becoming brightly lit – by things, sensors, and data
Leaders are already showing how to implement: Experiment over faith Do research until you get it right
Reason over tradition Use big data to find customers’ deepest secrets
Openness over exclusion Open-source everything you own
Freedom over authority Give power and tools to consumers
30
Getting this Enlightenment right Every industry and market is becoming brightly lit – by things, sensors, and data
Leaders are already showing how to implement: Experiment over faith Launch prototypes so you get it right
Reason over tradition Use big data to find competitive leverage points
Openness over exclusion Open-source technologies that others make
Freedom over authority Give power and tools to make new allies
Question authority! Lead the change!
Revolutions follow enlightenment - which side will you be on?
31
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Mark Bünger, Research Director Lux Research, Inc. [email protected] @MarkBungerLux