The Role of UN-Energy in ensuring sustainable

bioenergy development

UN-Energy side event

13 December 2007

Alexander MüllerAssistant Director-GeneralNatural Resources Management & Environment

Energy Consumption and Income are Linked

5 billion low-income people in countries with rapid economic growth rates

Exajoule (1018), EJ

Energy source: Year World OECD non-OECD All sources 20042 463 231 232

20302 67020502 850

1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 20002.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 20063.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

How big is the market for biofuels? Energy production and potential, biofuels and land

use

Exajoule (1018), EJ Energy source: Year World OECD non-OECD All sources 20042 463 231 232

20302 67020502 850

1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 20002.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 20063.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

How big is the market for biofuels? Energy production and potential, biofuels and land

use

Biomass Actual use 20042 32.5 7.8 24.6

Exajoule (1018), EJ Energy source: Year World OECD non-OECD All sources 20042 463 231 232

20302 67020502 850

Biofuels Ethanol 20043 0.84 0.34 0.51

Biodiesel 20033 0.06 0.04 0.02

1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 20002.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 20063.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

How big is the market for biofuels? Energy production and potential, biofuels and land

use

Biomass Actual use 20042 32.5 7.8 24.6

Bioenergy supply in 2004 (according to IEA 2006)

47.6

29.4

18.013.5

5.83.0

0.8 0.20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Africa Asia LatinAmerica

China Non-OECD

Europe

OECD FormerUSSR

MiddleEast

[%]

Share of Bioenergy* in TotalPrimary Energy Supply [%]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Democratic Rep. of Congo United Rep. of Tanzania

Ethiopia Nepal

Mozambique Sudan

Zambia Cameroon

Kenya Haiti

Myanmar Nigeria

Togo Ghana Benin

Cote d’Ivoire Angola Eritrea

Zimbabwe Rep. of the Congo

Gabon Paraguay

Guatemala Sri Lanka

Nicaragua Vietnam

Honduras Senegal

India Bangladesh

Pakistan El Salvador

Latvia Indonesia

Brazil

[%] of total primary energy supply

Source: Juergens (FAO) 2006 based on data from IEA 2006

Share of energy from biomass and waste in total primary energy supply for countries with a share of 30% and above

Bioenergy and Food Security

World population growth

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Tota

l pop

ulat

ion

(bill

ions

)

00.1

0.20.30.4

0.50.60.7

0.80.9

Ann

ual i

ncre

men

ts (b

illio

ns)

The

driv

ing

forc

es o

f dem

and

to 2

030

Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlook

Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002

Urbanization to accelerate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Bill

ion

peop

le

Urban

Rural

expectedactual

The

driv

ing

forc

es o

f dem

and

to 2

030

Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlookTh

e dr

ivin

g fo

rces

of d

eman

d to

203

0

Ethiopia: no population dividend amid high population growth

5

7 7

14

18 20

23 24 24 23

—

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tota

l pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Incr

emen

ts o

ver 1

0 ye

ars

(mill

ions

)from 80 to 180 million people by 2050

The

nut

ritio

n tr

ansi

tion

to 2

030

Food markets: Review and outlook to 2030

Developed market economies

9Countries in

transition25

Sub-Saharan Africa

206

Near East and North Africa

38

Asia and Pacific

524

Latin America and Caribbean

52

854 million(820 in developing

countries)

212 million India 150 million China

Where is land available?Where is the energy deficit?

Undernourished

Main import and export regions in world cereal markets

111

-41-66

114

2

-112

187

10

-190

247

25

-265-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

INDUSTRIAL TRANSITION DEVELOPING

mill

ion

mt

1979-81 1999-01 2015 2030

net exports

net imports

The

wor

ld m

arke

ts fo

r agr

icul

tura

l pro

duce

World markets and export opportunities

Bioenergy potential per region: different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr

Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from WWI 2006)

77

121.5

176

183

198

0 100 200 300 400

Oceania

North America

CIS* & BalticStates

Latin America andthe Caribbean

Africa

[EJ/year]

Bioenergy potential per type of biomass: different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr

0 200 400 600 800

Organic Wastes

Dung

Agricultural Residues

Forest Residues

Energy Crops (marginal lands)

Energy Crops (current agri. lands)

Total

Total (more likely)

[Exajoules]

Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from Faaij 2006

Cereal production and utilization

Year-to-year change in cereal production

FAO price indicesfor selected commodities

(1998-2000=100)

FAO food price index and CRB commodity and

energy indices(1998-2000=100)

Environment and

Sustainable development

Environmental, sustainability issues

Availability of land resources Availability of water resources Rapid land use change Land rights and tenure Effects of agro-chemicals Loss of biodiversity Greenhouse gas balances

0

50

100

150

200

250

Component

EthanolEthanol

K Btu/ bu grain

plantcultivate

fertilizerchemicals

irrigateharvest

transport

process

delivery DDGS credit

plantcultivate

fertilizerchemicals

irrigateharvest

transport

process

delivery DDGS creditNet energy gain

= 26,000 Btu/ buNet energy gain= 26,000 Btu/ bu

McClaren et al 2002

Ensure environmental best practices at all stages of the biofuel process chain

Process chain: Sorghum life cycle inputs

Parity prices: Petrol–Crude oil – EthanolVarious feedstocks and farming/production systems

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8Petrol, US$/l

Cru

de, U

S$/b

bl

Gasoline-Crude US$ Cane Brazil, top producers

Cane, Brazil, average Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d

Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture Maize, US

Mixed feedstock Europe Palmoil, MPOB project

The

com

petit

iven

ess

Competitiveness by feedstock

Josef Schmidhuber (2005)

BTL: Synfuel/Sunfuel

Are EU tariffs on ethanol high enough?

tUStEU-40%

tEU

Tariffs, prices and production costs for Ethanol

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6W

heat

Mai

ze

Suga

r bee

t

Suga

r can

e

Mai

ze

EU BRA US

€/l

P-cost

CIF USCIF EUFOB BRAMP US Ct/lMP EU

tEUtUS

tEU-40%

Die

Bio

ener

giem

ärkt

e –

Prei

seffe

kte

und

Ris

iken

UN-Energy as a forum and an advocate for ...

Bioenergy Charter? – Safeguards, Fair processes, Accountability, Advocacy, ...

Policy and legislative frameworks Estimating national bioenergy potentials Investment – commercial v.a.v. small-scale Certification – flexible, cost effective,

equitable for small-scale producers Knowledge – best practices, data, information Competing in international markets and with

technological change

Thank you