The Political Psychology of elections

Theories and methods for survey research

Sharon Coen, PhD University of Salford, Greater Manchester

3rd INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL IN POLITICAL COMMUNICATION AND ELECTORAL

BEHAVIOUR

  19 July, 2012

Aims:

• Critically evaluate the contributions psychology can give to explaining voters’ behaviour

• Critically evaluate whether and how to include measures of psychological constructs in surveys

• Apply to survey design (and data analysis)

Overview - 1

• What is political psychology?

• Political Psychological take on elections– Homo economicus and Homo psichologicus– Cognitive factors– Motivational and ideological factors, values – Psychosocial factors

Overview - 2• Measuring factors influencing voting

choice in survey research

– Macro-distant factors– Macro-proximal factors– Micro-distant factors– Micro-proximal factors

Overview – 3 (optional)• Analysing survey data

• Evaluating scales: validity ad reliability– Factor analysis and Alpha

• Predicting intention to vote (or actual vote)– Logistic regression, Path Analysis and

Hierarchical Linear Modeling

Exercise 1

• In small groups, please identify some key factors you already know (or think might) play an important role in voters’ choices

VOTE

MACRO

MICRO

DISTANT PROXIMAL

Source: Catellani, 2011(based on Rokkan, 1982)

POLITICAL SYSTEM

-Party system-Electoral laws-Political-social-territorial cleavages

STRUCTURE OF COMPETITION

-Economical climate-Salient political themes-Leader’s image

SOCIAL STRUCTURE, POITICAL ORIENTATIONS AND VALUES

-Social status-Ideology-Political alignment-Socio political values

DECISION IN THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT

-Cognitive factors-Affective factors-Motivational factors-Psychosocial factors

VOTE

MACRO

MICRO

DISTANT PROXIMAL

Source: Catellani, 2011

POLITICAL SYSTEM

-Party system-Electoral laws-Political-social-territorial cleavages

STRUCTURE OF COMPETITION

-Economical climate-Salient political themes-Leader’s image

SOCIAL STRUCTURE, POITICAL ORIENTATIONS AND VALUES

-Social status-Ideology-Political alignment-Socio political values

DECISION IN THE ELECTORAL CONTEXT

-Cognitive factors-Affective factors-Motivational factors-Psychosocial factors

Political Psychology Political psychology is an interdisciplinary academic field dedicated to understanding how individuals (e.g. citizens, journalists, politicians, militants) interact with the political reality through the use of psychological theories.see Sears (1987) for overview of key areas of interest

Political Psychology of voting behaviour

Homo economicus vs Homo psichologicus

Cognitive factors influencing vote

• Prospect theory (Tversky and Kanheman, 1981) and Framing [Prof. Iyengar’s lecture]

• Salient themes [Prof. Pfetsch’s lecture]

• Heuristic thinking and biased evaluation of parties and candidates

Prospect theory

Problem 1 [N = 152]If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. [72 percent]

If Program B is adopted, there is 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and 2/3 probability that no people will be saved. [28 percent]

Problem 2 [N = 155]:If Program C is adopted 400 people will die. [22 percent]

If Program D is adopted there is 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and 2/3 probability that 600 people will die. [78 percent]

Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

Pattern of risk aversion in choices involving gains and risk seeking in choices involving losses

Evaluation of candidates

• Judgements of morality and leadership particularly important (e.g. Cislak and Wojcizke, 2006, 2008)

• Although extraversion and sociability play also a role (see Mazzoleni and Sfardini, 2009) [Lecture by Prof. Brants]

• Stereotypical attributes: appearance (Todorov’s work), Gender (Lammers, Gordjin & Otten, 2009), demographics (e.g. Age, Ethnicity, Local origin, Catellani, 2011)

Affect and voting behaviour• Mood: positive mood favours heuristic processing (e.g.

Bagozzi, Gopinath & Nyer, 1999) [Prof. Moy & Prof. Brandts]

• Emotions: emotions towards candidates (see e.g. Redlawsk, 2006; Neuman, Marcus, Crigler & MacKuen, 2007) and parties (Mari and Rosema, in press) significant predictors of voters’ choice [Prof. Moy]

• Group-based emotions Smith (1993, 1999)?

Motivational factors affecting voting• Relational motives: the desire to affiliate and establish interpersonal

relationships; a need for personal or social identification, solidarity with others, and shared reality

• Epistemic motives: the drive to reduce uncertainty, complexity, or ambiguity; cognitive preference for certainty, structure, order, and/or closure

• Existential motives: the drive to manage threatening circumstances; a personal search for security, self-esteem, and meaning in life

• System justification: motivation to defend, bolster, and justify the status quo; tendency to view current social arrangements as fair, legitimate, and desirable

Jost, Federico and Napier (2009)see also Manzi, Vignoles , Regalia (2006) for identity motives

Ideologies• Coherent set of attitudes and values shared by members

of a social group which underlie and motivate the actions of its members

De Witte, 2004

• Traditionally: Liberal and Conservative

Underlying orientations: • Social Dominance orientation (Pratto et al, 1994)• Right-Wing Authoritarianism (Altemeyer, 1996)• Motivational structures and neurophysiological correlates

(Jost and Amodio, 2011)

Values• Values are hierarchically organised motivational

beliefs which constitute abstract goals and guide the selection or evaluation of actions, policies, people, and events. That is, values serve as standards or criteria (Schwartz, 2005)

• Strong predictors of political orientation (Thoristottir et al, 2007) and vote (Caprara et al. 2006)

Value orientation and voting Caprara et al, 2006

UniversalismSecurity, power, conformity, and tradition

R2 = .16

Self efficacy

• Internal (I am competent when it comes to politics)

• External (The system is responsive to attempts to influence it)E.g. Finkel, 1985

• Collective self efficacy (We can make a difference, e.g. Yeich and Levine,1994)

Psychosocial factors influencing vote

Social Identity Theory (SIT, Tajfel, 1981)

• Social group membership and identification

• Self Stereotyping and Identity Salience• Stereotyping of candidates (McDermott,

1998)

Relative importance of factors

Decisi Indecisi0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

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Attitudes towards polit-ical themesEvaluation of the economyCandidates' personali-tiesPolitical AnchorsValuesSociodemographics

ITANES, 2006 in Catellani, 2011

Exercise 2• In groups, identify one quadrant of the model proposed

earlier (Catellani, 2011 based on Rokkan,1982) and propose measures for at least three constructs (15’)

• Compare and evaluate measures among groups looking at the same quadrant, selecting one set of measures for inclusion (15’)

• Pass the resulting instrument to a different group who did not choose the same quadrant (10’)

Evaluating scales: validity ad reliability

• Factor analysisHelps identifying underlying factors measured by a set of items

• Reliability coefficient (Alpha)Provides an indication of the internal consistency of a scale

Predicting intention to vote (or actual vote)

• Logistic regressionUseful to explore the direct influence that one (or more) predictor/s has/have on the variable of interest

• Path Analysis Useful to establish patterns of relationships between predictors of the variables of interest

• Hierarchical Linear ModelingUseful to explore patterns of relationships between predictors, when these are at different – and hierarchically organised - levels

Summary and Conclusion• Voting behaviour is a complex

phenomenon influenced by a series of factors

• Individuals do not necessarily base their decisions on objective and stable judgements

• Psychology in general, and political psychology in particular offers useful insights

Keep in touch

• E-mail s.coen[at]salford.ac.uk• Facebook Sharon Coen • LinkedIn sharon_coen• Twitter coen_sharon