The Next 20 Yearsby John Edmiston for Biola Digital

The Next 20 The Next 20 YearsYears

The Big ChangesThe Big Changes

Digital Mega-TrendsDigital Mega-Trends• The Internet has moved from computers to “devices”• People want to “own” content not just read it.• Billions entering from the developing world• Niches: Languages, cultures, local searches, zip codes• Still many low-tech areas / people simplicity• Validation online comes before interaction offline• Everything will begin online! (Even offline ministry)• Social networks integrated with everything online and

offline to create a vast pool of opinion and “mood”• Information online, relationships offline• Discipleship via real-time interaction / chat

The Immediate FutureThe Immediate Future• Currently 2.3 billion Internet users and about 6 billion mobile phone

subscribers and increasing 3G penetration average 18% ranging between 87% (Japan) to 4% (Philippines)

• Almost universal coverage by 2015 mostly on mobile devices• Africa will open up as fiber-optic cable is rolled out and French & Arabic

sites will grow greatly • 1 billion plus “Internet new users” to come online as 3G rolls out and

as connectivity efforts such as O3B take effect. • FM and even short-wave radio chips in mobile phones may lead to a

resurgence of short-wave radio on mobile devices. DRM (Digital Radio Mondiale) chip. HUGE gospel opportunity & prayer point for Christian broadcasters.

• However there will still be a big need for simple technologies for the last, least and lost, and those in very remote areas and for educational computer centers and icafes.

Devices Will DominateDevices Will Dominate• Internet now includes many “non-computer” devices• 5 billion internet connected devices now, 22 billion by 2020 –

will include TVs, cars, phones, e-readers, tablets, computers, peripherals, machine-to-machine connections etc.

• Content needs to be able to go from device to device• Distributed – same content on many different devices – format

wars for the foreseeable future, need to be able to convert content into many different formats.

• USB3.0 and Intel’s new Light Peak technology will enable v. fast data transfer (3 to10 GB/sec +) between devices

• Unlocked, free & out-of-copyright content (e.g. Matthew Henry’s commentary) will be preferred in majority world

• MegaVoice and other MP3 players for developing nations• Solar-powered and easily recharged devices preferred

The Big NumbersThe Big Numbers

AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

• The next few slides are extracted from a wonderful 112 slide presentation by Mary Meeker which you an find online at:

http://www.businessinsider.com/mary-meekers-latest-incredibly-insightful-presentation-about-the-state-of-the-web-2012-5#-1

The Big Shake-Up!The Big Shake-Up!

You Can….You Can….

• You can get saved online• You can get discipled online via Skype• Go to church online & find great sermons online• Study and do your theological degree online• Meet a Christian wife/husband online• Get ordained online and become a Reverend• Start an online ministry & get 501c3 status for it• Write a print-on-demand book and also get it on Kindle

and become famous….• Send money to orphans in Africa by Paypal and• Have an online bible college and issue diplomas• Without ever going to a local church.

The Big StrategiesThe Big Strategies

Keep It SimpleKeep It Simple• Most people hate technology but will have to use it and they

don’t want to feel confused, helpless or stupid so keep it simple and helpful.

• Billions of new users: High usability / clarity / support• Customer service will be a winning factor esp. as new users

and seniors come online.• Live chat ( the text chat box on websites) will be very popular.

People want instant interaction with you!• Some of the “old will become new” : email, search, straight

text web pages, chat rooms, IM and easy to use download sites etc. You must connect with their Inbox, FB page or Google / Bing (the 3 places they will go to)

Devices Will DominateDevices Will Dominate• Internet now includes many “non-computer” devices• 5 billion internet connected devices now, 22 billion by 2020 –

will include TVs, cars, phones, e-readers, tablets, computers, peripherals, machine-to-machine connections etc.

• Content needs to be able to go from device to device• Distributed – same content on many different devices – format

wars for the foreseeable future, need to be able to convert content into many different formats.

• USB3.0 and Intel’s new Light Peak technology will enable v. fast data transfer (3 to10 GB/sec +) between devices

• Unlocked, free & out-of-copyright content (e.g. Matthew Henry’s commentary) will be preferred in majority world

• MegaVoice and other MP3 players for developing nations• Solar-powered and easily recharged devices preferred

Language & LocationLanguage & Location• People search on websites within their own

language universe• As new areas get connected HUGE

opportunities to be among the first websites in a minority language

• Be Unicode / UTF-8 capable• Local search: 20%-30%+ of all searches

contain a city or zip code • 7% of searches contain a map.• Have your zip code, address and MapQuest

info on your main index page• Join local social networks and get a “feel”

for your city /urban networks• Relate to GPS equipped devices!!

• Top Ten Internet Languages

• The importance of local search

• Small business and local search

• Local search statistics

Facebook & CultureFacebook & Culture

• In Asia Facebook penetration is only 5% despite rapid Internet adoption

• In USA it is 49.9%, Australia 40% most other places 28% (except Africa)

• Privacy concerns and social honor (“face”) concerns limit penetration in Asia

The Power of E-pinionThe Power of E-pinion• Social networks, ratings & reviews will define credibility: “93

of your friends like Bro. Joe’s Ministry”.• People validate a product / person /doctrine online first• Recommendations Website Purchase / Action• Social network Content Site Response / Form• Under-promise and over-deliver: meet expectations so you

always get 4 star to 5 star ratings• Avoid failure /disappointment, do not launch until ready. One

disappointed person can blog/tweet/FB you into oblivion. • Build a brand, a following, people who will blog, tweet and FB

message about you. Create passionate fans of your ministry and get them to post rave reviews.

Online Before OfflineOnline Before Offline• Things begin ONLINE before they become OFFLINE• People search online then buy locally. The decision of what

to buy (including church) is made on the Internet• People search for a church, bible college, Christian concert

online before actually attending – the process begins online• Recruitment happens via Facebook and social networks • Doctrinal questions & answers to personal problems are

now investigated online FIRST before asking the pastor, • The Internet is no longer a tool which is used to increase

offline “brick and mortar” ministries, instead it is the ocean in which all ministry (both online and offline) must either sink or swim.

The Future Is DEPTH!The Future Is DEPTH!• The Internet presents deep, specialized information well and

can supplement Church by tackling sensitive, personal, controversial or highly theological topics.

• The Internet will provide the solid content side of discipleship (Truth) while the Church provides the affective and relational / cultural context (Love / Grace)

• Online education for church members (say via Moodle)• Leadership & stewardship training modules online• “Ask the pastor” online forums using Simple Machines Forum• Discipleship curriculum that people move through at their own

pace in easy, ordered stages• Specialized prayer communities online • Church FAQ – the 100 most asked questions (Cain's wife etc)

Downloads For DevicesDownloads For Devices• Think DOWNLOADS not pages• Think PRODUCTS not donations• Turn articles into EBOOKS• Turn blogs into MP3s / Podcasts• Transfer-ability / Portability• Viral / Interesting / Useful• Multi-platform / Great Content• Use file-sharing culture for God• Follow-up a contact with a link to a

download, even on FB• PRC / Kindle, Mobi, • Android applications• PDF, PowerPoints, zipped HTML• Torrents, Videos• Use other people’s bandwidth

Useful Programs• How to create Torrent files• µTorrent• Audacity (for MP3 files)

Tutorials / Links• Building Android apps • Android developers guide• W3schools• How to create an iPhone w

eb app

Internet Radio / TVInternet Radio / TV• The success of Hulu, YouTube, Live 365

etc. • Internet radio should equal

conventional radio in Nth. America by 2016: stats here

• IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) is beginning to get some traction

• Specialized programming is the key – offer something that generic bland local commercial radio does not offer but which still has fans

• Get listed in the specialized search engines, directories, Itunes, YouTube etc

• Create a fan page on FB for your content

• Icecast (MP3 server software for Internet radio)

• Shoutcast• Live 365 radio stations• Starting an internet radio stati

on• iTunes podcasts,• How to submit a podcast to

iTunes• Podcast Alley• Livestream.com (launch your

own free Internet TV channel)• Any Video Convertor Free• Creating a YouTube channel

Ebooks & P.O.D. Ebooks & P.O.D. • Ebook sales up 200%+ in 2010 from 1.5% to

5% of market, start of take-off in adoption Next Big Thing….

• Turn your articles into PDF file ebooks and thus into products

• Hard copy format via a print-on-demand publisher

• Order goes straight to the print-on- demand publisher who then sends the book out to the customer (as little as one copy) , you don’t have to worry about inventory, shipping etc. Don’t have to go through mainline publisher editorial acceptance/ rejection process

• Often 30% author royalty• Great for manuals/ textbooks/ course

material/ seminars and specialized theological / missiological topics

• CreateSpace (Amazon)

• Lightning Source • Xulon Press

(Christian)• List of P.O.D publish

ers• MobiPocket Creator• Calibre Ebook Conve

rter

Webinars, Conferencing & Webinars, Conferencing & LMSLMS

• Webinars are now a standard industry training tool and bandwidth is now sufficient for many end-users to benefit from them.

• Much more user-friendly and affordable

• Desktop sharing of files, PowerPoints etc.

• Huge potential for personal evangelism, discipleship, apologetics, question and answer format etc.

• Leadership meetings and even church board meetings!

• Project presentations & fundraising

• Free conference calls• Talking Communities (Chris

tian)• GoToMeeting• Microsoft Live Meeting• WebEx• Moodle (LMS w. plugins)• DEScribe (simple LMS)

Chatty Chatty DiscipleshipDiscipleship

• Chat/ Group Chat/ Instant messaging / Skype is becoming a preferred tool for serious discipleship issues and discussions

• Combine with Google docs that can be edited collaboratively as they I.M.

• Small group size is good for team meetings, prayer groups, discipleship groups

• Some debate about security but seems generally moderate to OK.

• Skype• Oovoo (video chat)

• Google docs• Pidgin (Instant messaging)• Digsby (I.M.)• Miranda (I.M.)• Meebo (web based I.M.)• Groupboard (web-based free

group chat plus whiteboard for your website or server)

• Chat4Support (commercial)

• StrongDC++ (live chat + files)

Email & SMSEmail & SMS• Most of the Next Billion will start by

using: a) email and b) SMS text especially on smartphones at least until the web surfing experience improves.

• We must move from the known to the unknown and deliver solutions that they can intuitively use (at first)

• A revival of simple email based solutions e.g email based distance education (e.g. 1990s)

• Email to text (and vice versa) as a follow-up tool

• Egroups / lists / discussions• PDF & HTML attachments

• Gammu SMS gateway (free)• Text Magic (email to SMS)• Mailman (email list manager)• MailChimp.com• Email templates in Gmail• HTML Emails with CSS • Creating HTML email • PDF Creator

““Last Mile Last Mile Technologies”Technologies”

• Encrypted USB drives and SD cards• Internet on an intranet, rig up a couple

of 1.5 Tb HDD containing a mini-Internet / document library to a server in a computer center

• Thin clients in a computer center running via LTSP

• Store and forward email via ham radio (HF radio)

• Asynchronous technologies – lists, discussion boards, SimpleMachines

• Poodle – portable moodle and other portable apps

• Harvestime “bible college in a box” - instant institute.

• Poodle• TrueCrypt USB encryption• MAF products• PortableApps.com• LTSP• Thin client icafes• Harvestime (2 yr bible college)• Simple Machines Forum• Email Relay• Store and forward email via HF• CRMF (Papua New Guinea)• Faith Comes by Hearing

Questions To AskQuestions To Ask• Which platforms can we be on and excel in?

(web, mobile, internet radio, IPTV…)• What devices can we be on? Which formats?• What languages can we be in?• Which niches can we occupy?• How can we reach the billions of new users? • How can we create simple, positive, un-confusing user experiences and

give world-class real-time support?• Which social networks should we be part of?• How can we “amaze” these social networks?• What are our downloads / products?• Where are our discipleship conversations happening?• How can we multiply / leverage our very best content?• Who are we leaving out? (That we can reasonably include...)

Some Big, Hairy Guesses…

The Connected The Connected TranshumanTranshuman

• Always connected• Chipped, Implanted, Data-Streamed• Genetically engineered• Extra or enhanced bodily senses• Constant virtual reality• Nootropic (mental) acuity from pharmaceuticals• Blend of man, machine and data• Always tracked by GPS• Transactions via swiping and hand gestures

Massive Data / Personalized Massive Data / Personalized DataData

• The Internet NOW knows you better than you know yourself and remembers your friends, your birthday, your tastes in music, clothing and articles, knows what you browse, and knows approximately what you know.

• Soon about 200+ private companies will literally know EVERYTHING about EVERYONE and will sell this information to any buyer even including repressive regimes.

Governments Will Be Governments Will Be ConsumersConsumers

• The Market will become far more powerful than governments which will become mere consumers of data, money, loans, innovation and of commodities such as oil.

• Security will become increasingly digital and increasingly commercial and companies such as GlimmerGlass and Intrusion will have more intelligence capacity than governments and national security will be almost totally corporatized.

Politicians Will Be Totally Politicians Will Be Totally Owned By Companies In Owned By Companies In

The Digital SpaceThe Digital Space• As E-Pinion increases in power electability will

be a function of the politicians’ digital image

• The power to validate a politician will belong in the power of a handful of digital reputation companies such as Twitter, Facebook, Google and their successors.

Opting Out Will Possibly Opting Out Will Possibly Be LethalBe Lethal

• The Market will require total knowledge of you and will control everything from your food to your pharmaceuticals.

• Removing a person’s digital identity will be tantamount to making sustaining life difficult or even totally impossible

Contact DetailsContact DetailsJohn Edmiston

Chairman & CEO of Cybermissionswww.cybermissions.orgwww.globalchristians.org

Email: digitalopportunities@gmail.comSkype ID : johnedmiston

Ph: +1-310-549-6791 (Carson, CA - USA)