the nature of change: megan tierney & andrew church

Megan Tierney & Andrew Church

Understanding Nature’s Value to Society

UNEP-WCMC University of Brighton

Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems, and that make life both possible and worth living.

Ecosystem ServicesThe benefits people obtain from ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtainedfrom regulation of

ecosystemprocesses

• climate regulation• disease regulation

• flood regulation

ProvisioningGoods produced or

provided byecosystems

• food• fresh water• fuel wood

• genetic resources

CulturalNon-materialbenefits fromecosystems

• spiritual• recreational

• aesthetic• inspirational• educational

SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services

• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production

Globally, ecosystems and biodiversity are under threat

Ecosystems may not be able to sustain future generations

We need proven, evidence-based methods on ecosystems and the services they provide so decision makers can develop strategies to reverse current rates of degradation Ecosystem Service Assessments

Ecosystem Service Assessments:why do we need them?

Ecosystem Service Assessments:what is their purpose?

ESAs provide the connection between environmental issues and people

ESAs connect the environmental and development sectors

ESAs help to inform decisions ESAs communicate complex

information ESAs do not conduct new

primary research

Ecosystem Service Assessments:role in decision making

ESAs play numerous roles in decision making: Responding to information needs Highlighting trade-offs between options Modelling plausible future scenarios Engaging decision makers

Ecosystem Service Assessments:how are they conducted?

1. Exploratory Need, scope, users, funders

4. Communication

3. Implementation Assessing condition and trends of

priority services, identifying drivers of change, development of scenarios, response options, peer review

2. Design Governance, conceptual framework,

scale, amalgamating data sources

The UK National Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) published.

Assessed the consequences of global ecosystem change for human well-being, and highlighted the importance of ecosystem services to HWB

On a global scale, many ecosystem services had been degraded/loss, and action required to ensure conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems

2007: UK House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee recommended that, ‘ultimately the Government should conduct a full MA-type assessment for the UK to enable the identification and development of effective policy responses to ecosystem service degradation’.

2008: Secretary for State for Defra, Hilary Benn, announced Ecosystem Assessment for England. Expanded to include Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland with a start in 2009.

Objectives of the UK NEAThe UK NEA was the first analysis of the UK’s natural environment in terms

of the benefits that it provides people.

Part of the LWEC (Living With Environmental Change) initiative.

The objectives of the UK NEA were to:

1. Produce an independent and peer-reviewed National Ecosystem Assessment for the whole of the UK.

2. Raise awareness of the importance of the natural environment to human well-being and economic prosperity.

3. Ensure full stakeholder participation and encourage different stakeholders and communities to interact and, in particular, to foster better inter-disciplinary cooperation between natural and social scientists, as well as economists. © U Bac

Governance of the UK NEA

27 member Expert Panel (natural and social scientists, economists) – provide expertise and advise on assessment process

2 Co-chairs of the Expert Panel: Bob Watson (Defra Chief Scientist) and Steve Albon (John Hutton Institute)

12 member Client Group - funders

26 member User Group (agencies, NGOs, private sector, other government departments) – ensure outputs relevant for different audiences

The assessment team: with ~400 authors, led by a team of Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs)

A Secretariat based at UNEP-WCMC – coordination, stakeholder engagements, source data

The UK NEA aimed to be an inclusive and owned process

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UK NEA Broad Habitats (ecosystems)

Mountains, moors and heathlands

Semi-natural grasslands Enclosed farmland Woodlands

Freshwaters - Openwaters, Wetlands and Floodplains

Urban Marine Coastal Margins

UK NEA Ecosystem Goods & Services (for people)

The UK NEA has adopted the MA classification for ecosystem services.

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UK NEA Conceptual Framework

REPLACE

Structured around processes that link human societies with their well-being and the environment

Explores drivers impacting on ecosystems and the services which flow from them to deliver goods valued individually and as a society.

UK NEA Assessment Process Key questions

addressed in the UK NEA covered:

a) Habitat status and trends since 1940s, and the ecosystem services they provide

b) Key factors (drivers) affecting ecosystems

c) Change under plausible scenarios & the range of response options

d) Value contribution of services to HWB through economic and non-economic analyses

UK NEA Assessment Process

Author teams compiled and reviewed and/or analyzed evidence.

Each chapter underwent two external review processes, together with discussion between the Expert Panel, Client Group and User Group

These chapters formed the evidence base for the UK NEA Technical and distilled to produce the UK NEA Synthesis report.

Publications

SYNTHESIS TECHNICAL REPORT

Summarizes high level key messages and findings for

decision makers

Evidence Base:Methodology

Status & Trends3 measures of HWB & value

Scenarios & response options

Country syntheses

• UK lacks extremes

• But is remarkably variable (biophysically, ecologically & socially)

Distribution of UK habitats

Distribution of UK habitats

Variability impacts on how systems are managed

The UK, its people and its ecosystems

The UK is a small, densely populated island nation and the first industrialised country in the world

80% population live in urban areas and for some the natural world is something ‘out there’

BUT we are all reliant on benefits we derive from the natural world for well-being and economic prosperity

Benefits derived from natural systems are constantly under-valued (in both economic analysis and decision-making)

Ecosystem and ecosystem services are constantly changing Changes are driven by societal changesChanges influence our demand for goods and

services & how resources are managedChange has been greatest in past 60-years

The UK, its people and its ecosystems

Changes in the past 60-years

Late 1940s onwards: emphasis on maximizing production of goods to meet needs for food, fibre, timber energy & water

Driven by:Market forcesGovernment policySubsidies promoting production and infrastructure

development


Productivity increases:Area under crops

(↑40% England)Crop yields per

hectare (4x)Milk yield (2x) Softwood

production


Productivity declines: Fish landings:

↓50%


Gains in production have impacted on other ecosystems and ecosystem services:90% decline in semi-natural grasslands (through

conversion)Fertiliser run-off impacted aquatic systemsConiferous forest plantations at the expense of

other habitats and most comprised of non-native species


Biodiversity has also declined Farmland Bird

Index: 43% decline


Improvements to ecosystem services in last 10-20 years

Driven by: Policy and legislationTechnological developmentsChanging attitudes and behaviour


1956: Clean Air Act (human health)1981: Wildlife and Countryside Act (recognized

role of biodiversity)1990s: CAP decoupled from production

Encourages stewardship of countrysideAgri-environment schemes cover 6.5 m ha in

EnglandForestry policy provides a variety of services

Production, recreation and biodiversity


Fisheries management improved

Public awareness of environmental issues increasedRSPB membership

• 1960: 10,000• 2009: 1 million

30% of services are in decline or a degraded statePresent challenges & future outlook

30% of services are in decline or a degraded stateSoil condition – fundamental to productivity and

biodiversity – degradedPollinators are decliningMarine fish catches are low + ecological impact of

fisheriesYounger generation – less engaged with natural

world

Present challenges & future outlook

Communication and language challengeNEA quantitative study of 100 terms linked to

ecosystems in 1.5 billion word of UK language corpus and 3 specialised corpora

Ecosystem services not meaningful framework for vast majority of people but influence in policy

Issue of nominalisation - tendency of syntax to obscure agency

Nature and natural environment have most meaning and multiple meanings

To reverse declines in ecosystem services:Need more resilient management systemsBetter balance between production and other

services• How to increase (and sustain) production but have

smaller environmental footprint?Better understanding of the value of the full range

of ecosystem services (including cultural)

Responding to the challenges

But ecosystem services are consistently undervalued in economic analysis and decision making

Therefore the UK NEA explored:How and why the economic value of ecosystem

services should be incorporated into decision making

Importance of considering both market and non-market goods, and at different spatial scales


Case study: rural land use in Wales Potential

economic value of conversion from farming to multi-purpose woodland

Economic analysis demonstrates that:Failure to include valuation of non-market goods

in decision making leads to poor resource management

Value of ecosystem services varies spatiallyIf recognize the value of ecosystem services,

UK can move towards a more sustainable future and services that are equitably distributed


Economic analysis demonstrate:

Many possible outcomes

Decisions made now will impact on those future outcomes

Moving forward

To move forward and enhance ecosystem management: Generate and share knowledge and information Establish legal/policy/institutional frameworks and understand

impact of social behaviours Respond to changing markets/incentives/technology

Moving forward

A move towards a sustainable future will require:Changes to individual and societal behaviourAdopting an integrated approach to ecosystems

management• Appropriate mix of regulations, technology, financial

investment and education (i.e. multiple responses)• Range of actors and collaborations: government,

private sector, voluntary organizations, civil society at large

• Addressing issues at a range of spatial and temporal scales

Moving forward

UK NEA has identified that there are still knowledge gaps, uncertainty and controversy in our evidence

However, has also demonstrated:Have sufficient understanding to start managing

ecosystems more sustainablySocial benefits of such management

Moving forward

Plausible future scenariosScenarios developed to gain understanding of

what the future might hold


Six storylines Emphasis

ranged from:• Environmental

awareness and ecological sustainability

• National self sufficiency and economic growth

Significant gains in ecosystem service delivery under storylines that emphasized environmental awareness


Challenge:How to capture benefits of each scenario to create best value?

Economic implications:Each scenario assessed in terms of changes in 5

ecosystem service goods• Agriculture• Carbon storage and GHG emissions• Biodiversity• Cultural services

– Recreation– Urban greenspace amenity


Substantial change in values with different levels of ecosystem service provision

Importance of including valuation of non-market goods in decision making


The Natural England White Paper

• Outlines plans for the next 50 years

• The Government’s response to the evidence base set out in the UK NEA

• Joining up the Government’s environmental monitoring, to enhance understanding the of ecosystem services

What next? Dissemination of findings Time to reflect on content of the UK NEA Event at the BES conference Second phase ???

SGA network

http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/


Climate predictions (2060, high emissions)Hotter, drier

summersWarmer, wetter

winters

MEA – Non-material benefits - Different countries and systems of knowledge

NEA – Environmental settings - Domestic gardens to national landscapes

Distinct from ecosystems and habitats, spatially defined, explore links to satisfaction of human needs

A series of cultural goods contributing to well being – health, tourism and recreation, heritage, education and ecological knowledge religious and spiritual

Major knowledge gaps – the contribution of ecosystem services to these goods and related inequalities of goods

Challenge will be how to manage ecosystems so we benefit from the range of services provided, particularly in the face of:Population growth

• 2010: 62 million• 2033: 72 million

Climate change• More severe weather events• Changes in rainfall patterns


Present challenges & future outlookUK is, and will likely remain an active trading nation

– trading in products of ecosystem services

2008: imported 50m tonnes biomass

Significant overseas ecological footprint

Influenced by social, economic and ecological changes elsewhere


Late 1940s onwards: emphasis on maximizing production of goods to meet needs for food, fibre, timber energy & water

Driven by:Market forcesGovernment policySubsidies promoting production and infrastructure

development