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TRANSCRIPT
DECEMBER 2014
THE MIDDLE EAST
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
IMPACT
FORWARD-LOOKING
STATEMENTS This presentation contains ‘forward-looking statements’, based on currently available plans and forecasts.
By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and
depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future, and Vopak cannot guarantee the
accuracy and completeness of forward-looking statements.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, factors affecting the realization of ambitions and financial
expectations, developments regarding the potential capital raising, exceptional income and expense items, operational
developments and trading conditions, economic, political and foreign exchange developments and changes to IFRS reporting
rules.
Statements of a forward-looking nature issued by the company must always be assessed in the context of the events, risks and
uncertainties of the markets and environments in which Vopak operates. These factors could lead to actual results being
materially different from those expected, and Vopak does not undertake to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking
statements.
Various sources are used in this presentation including among others: Wood MacKenzie, IEA, IHS and Vopak intelligence
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
• • 2 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
REGION
AT A GLANCE
Fujairah , UAE
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
UNIQUE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION IN THE WORLD IN THE CENTER OF TRADE BETWEEN EAST AND WEST
Terminal
Terminal(s) at hub location
4 CMD 2014
Geographic position
Resources and
population
Production
Balance and mix
Political developments
Middle East: a region shaped by resources
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.0003.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
20
18
20
16
Bahrain
Yemen
Oman
Kuwait
Qatar
Iraq
United Arab Emirates
Islamic Republic of Iran
Saudi Arabia
AVG GDP/ Capita
GDP per country In trillion current USD
200
180
220
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985
Other Middle East
Yemen
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Population (in millions)
Population reached ~180 million (2014) Overall GDP value growth at 5.9% CAGR (2014 – 2018)
POPULATION GROWTH DRIVING LOCAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY PRODUCTS
Left chart data source: US census bureau database, October 2014. Right chart data source: World Trade Organization (WTO) database; international monetary funds (IMF) database; ICIS (ATEC) database,
November 2014. Note: for some countries and years no data is available (i.E. Iraq prior to 2004 and Yemen prior to 1990)
The Middle East defined as: Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrein, Qatar, United Arab
Emirates.
5 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
REGIONAL TREND TOWARDS DIVERSIFICATION SINCE 2004 A REMARKABLE JUMP IN NON-OIL SECTOR REVENUES
Non-oil outpaces oil-related export growth Demographics of the Middle East (2014)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1.300
1.200
1.100
1.000
900
1.400
+12.7%
+15.9%
2013 2010 2005 2000
Export value in trillion current USD CAGR growth 2000 - 2013
Services
Goods - Other
Goods - Chemicals
Goods - Agriculture
Goods - Fuels & Mining
024681012
35-39
10-14
5-9
15-19
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64 65-69
70-74
75-79 80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
25-29
30-34
20-24
0-4
Male Population (in millions)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Female Population (in millions)
A continuous flow of new investments in oil, gas and petrochemical projects signals a strong desire to create downstream
infrastructure, adding value to natural resources locally and jobs for the young population on the back of availability of
cheap feedstock and ample funds to invest.
Left chart data source: US census bureau database, October 2014. Right chart data source: World Trade Organization (WTO) database, November 2014
6 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & DRIVERS CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INVESTMENTS NOT DISTURBED BY LOCAL TENSIONS
Middle East economic developments & drivers
• Positive economic developments and diversification
• Oil revenues
• Energy and feedstock supplier of Europe and Asia
• Political instability and security issues
Projects planned Q4 2014 with a value of US$ 254 billion
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
KSA IRAN UAE IRAQ QATAR KUWAIT OMAN
TRANSPORT
POWER
OIL
INDUSTRIAL
GAS
CONSTRUCTION
CHEMICAL
7 CMD 2014
Source: MEED, Vopak intelligence
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS & DECISION-MAKERS ROYAL FAMILIES BUILT ON THE TRIBAL SYSTEM
Middle East decision making
• Royal families
• House of Saud (KSA)
• House of Nahyan (Emirates)
• House of Sabah (Kuwait)
• House of Khalifa (Bahrain)
• House of Thani (Qatar)
• House of Said (Oman)
• Tribal leaders
• National oil & chemical companies
Gulf cooperation council
• Established in 1981 with the objective to create
amongst others a regional economic market and
strengthen relations to achieve unity between
member states
8 CMD 2014
Fujairah, UAE
INCREASING
FLOWS
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
THE INCREDIBLE SUCCES STORY OF A REGION THAT PUT ITSELF ON THE MAP WITHIN A CENTURY
1900
1950
1980
2010
2015
2030
Export crude
First refineries
First
independent
storage
terminals
Downstream
integration
Largest
chemical
exporter in the
world?
10 CMD 2014
Chemical
production
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
Global share of proven gas reserves in %
43%
31%
8%
8% 6% 4% MIDDLE EAST
EUROPE & EURASIA
ASIA PACIFIC
AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
S. & CENT. AMERICA
185,7
Trillion
Cubic
Meters
48%
19%
14%
9%
8% 2% MIDDLE EAST
S. & CENT. AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE & EURASIA
AFRICA
ASIA PACIFIC
238,2 k
Million
Tons
Global share of proven oil reserves in %
MIDDLE EAST CENTER OF GRAVITY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE PRODUCT RESERVES IN THE KSA AND IRAN
Oil in k million ton
Gas in k trillion cbm
11 CMD 2014
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014
Regional distribution of proven oil & gas reserves
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
MIDDLE EAST REFINING CAPACITY EXPANDING
AND UPGRADING TO MEET HIGH VALUE SPECIFICATIONS
Middle East refinery market, 2014
• 46 refineries
• 7.7 million barrels per day
• 10% of global refining capacity
• 90% owned by NOC’s
• Expansions & upgrades to add 2.5 million barrels per day
• New marketing companies
Refining capacity per # units (2014 - 2020)
Refining capacity per country
In 1,000x barrels per day (2014 - 2020)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bahrain Yemen Oman Kuwait KSA UAE Iran Iraq Qatar
Current refineries #
Additions #
Upgrades #
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2.200
2.400
2.600
2.800
3.000
3.200
3.400
UAE Qatar KSA Iran Bahrein Kuwait Iraq Yemen Oman
Upgrades
Refining capacity
Additions
12 CMD 2014
Data source: wood Mackenzie, October 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
GROWTH CAPACITY FOR LOCAL DEMAND
YET 9% GROWTH IN EXPORT EXPECTED MAINLY IN MIDDLE DISTILLATES
Middle East refined product exports Export of products to grow 9% in 2015 (in Mtons)
Destinations Middle East output in 2013
• 129 million tons exports in 2013
• 66% of exports leave the gulf
• Regional trade driven by fuel oil
• Increase of middle distillates exports >2015
Source: Middle East petroleum databook, October 2014, FGE
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Naphtha
Jet / Kero
Gasoline
Gasoil
Fuel Oil
1% 1%
0%
-1% 5%
9%
2%
6%
47%
7%
12%
0%
34%Asia
Africa
Europe & Med
Americas
Middle East
13 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
IMPACT OIL PRICE ON BUDGETS
Government budgets’ break-even oil price (2014)
US $ per barrel
DE
FIC
IT
S
UR
PL
US
Brent crude oil price US $ per barrel
Iran
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
UAE Qatar Kuwait
Bahrein
Oman
2013 2014
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Data source: US energy information administration (EIA), November 2014; The Economist, October 2014
14 CMD 2014
NATIONAL BUDGETS MAY TURN DEFICIT
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2014 2020
Bahrain
UAE
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Iran
KSA
MIDDLE EAST PRODUCES 136M TONS CHEMICALS
Middle East liquid exports to grow
by 32% in Ktons
Middle East chemical production capacity in Ktons
KSA HAS 55% SHARE OF MIDDLE EAST LIQUID EXPORTS IN 2014
Source: ICIS database, & VME assessment
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
2014 2020
ME LiquidExport
ME LiquidIntegrated
ME Non-LiquidProduction
Middle East chemical market 2014
• 32 steam crackers
• 19% global capacity
• 80% owned by NOC/NCC’s
• 2 new crackers on naphtha
• Sabic OTC
• New marketing companies
15 CMD 2014
• Main destination Asia
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
KEY CHEMICAL PROJECTS UNTIL 2020 WILL MAINLY HAPPEN IN SAUDI ARABIA
- Bulk & intermediate chemical exports 2013
- Potential chemical exports >2016 - Ref: jubail 2013 is ~60mio tons total
- Chemical imports 2013 ex ME
- Potential chemical imports >2016 ex ME
- Regional distribution
Middle East key chemical projects
1. Sadara, Jubail
2. Sabic Expansions, Jubail
3. Petro Rabigh II, Rabigh
4. Al Karaana, Qatar
5. Chemaweyaat, Ruwais
6. Aramco, Jizan
7. ORPIC, Sohar
8. Sabic oil-to-chemicals, Yanbu
9. Various in Iran
16 CMD 2014
Source: Vopak intelligence
MIDDLE EAST
AND VOPAK
Fujairah, UAE
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
Terminals facilitating
growth in global gas
markets
Import distribution
terminals in major
markets with structural
deficits
Industrial and
chemicals terminals,
in the Americas, the
Middle East and Asia
Major hubs,
supporting
intercontinental products flows
VOPAK ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST HUB AND INDUSTRIAL TERMINALS
Cmd 2014 Gasses Industrial terminals Hub terminals Distribution terminals
18 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
KEY ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT LEVERAGING THE NETWORK
Account management
• Network connection
• Ease of business
• Joint development of supply chains
• Product studies
• Aim to facilitate storage at origin and destination
Vopak in the Middle East
• Vopak maintains regular contact with all National Oil Companies and National Chemical Companies in the region
19 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
EXAMPLE: MARKETING + ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT MEG WITH MIDDLE EAST ORIGIN AT MORE THAN HALF OF OUR TERMINALS
Sabtank - Yanbu
Sabtank – Al Jubail
MEG export terminal
MEG import terminal ex Middle East
MEG import terminal ex Other
Others 184 48%
Middle East
197KT 52%
Middle East 43KT 100%
Others 37 9%
Middle East
369KT 91%
Others 437 62%
Middle East
271KT 38%
Others 114 31%
Middle East
259KT 69%
NOTES: WE ARE ONLY ACTING AS OPERATOR IN SABTANK TERMINALS WHERE VOPAK HAS A 10% INTEREST IN A JOINT SERVICE COMPANY. THIS REPRESENTS 2013 VOPAK STORAGE IN KT.
20 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
COMPETITION IN THE CHEMICAL MARKET IS MAINLY ESTABLISHED IN THE FREE ZONES OF THE UAE
New built capacity needed
From 2016 onwards (rotation 6)
294kcbm of independent storage capacity in 2014 Chemical storage capacity Arabian Gulf & Oman
(excl Ruwais & Qatar)
-
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Third Coast
Solvochem
Oiltanking OdfjellTerminals & Co
Dow Jebel AliTerminal
Sasol
Star EnergyOiltanking
Shell Jebel AliChemicalsTerminalPetrochem
Petrochem
Horizon Jebel AliChem Terminals
ACT
PCQ2
Sabtank Jubail
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Solvochem
Third Coast
Exir Iran
Oiltanking OdfjellTerminals & Co
Star EnergyOiltanking
Petrochem
Petrochem
Horizon Jebel AliChem Terminals
ACT
PCQ2 Multi Purpose
(40.000)
(20.000)
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020CBM
Base case market storage demand (3.5%)
Best case market storage demand (5%)
Worst case market storage demand (2%)
21 CMD 2014
Source: Vopak intelligence
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
JOINT VENTURE AND PARTNERSHIPS WITH THREE TERMINALS ALREADY SUCCESSFULLY OPERATIONAL
Vopak in KSA
• Vopak and Sabic are JV partners in the operating company Sabtank Jubail and Sabtank Yanbu
• Vopak and Sabic are JV partners in the Jubail terminal expansion of PCQ2
Vopak in UAE
• Vopak, Horizon, Fujairah government and Kuwait Independent Petroleum Group are JV partners in the VHFL terminal in Fujairah
22 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
EXAMPLE: PCQ2 - INDUSTRIAL TERMINAL LONG TERM PARTNERSHIP WITH SABIC SINCE 1995
Ch
em
icals
PC
Q 1
52
53
42
43
44
41
29
28
27
26
SASREF
(refined
products)
34
35
32
33
31
25 24
23
22
21 Ara
mco
Su
lph
ur
Fert
iliz
ers
Iron Ore
Chemicals PCQ 2
Chemicals PCQ1
36
37
23 CMD 2014
REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS REGION
AT A GLANCE
INCREASING
FLOWS
MIDDLE EAST AND
VOPAK
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
SUMMARY
24 CMD 2014
Higher integration of refinery and downstream clusters with focus
on specialty chemical production
• Additional oil and diversified chemical production leads to increased
global export
Vopak well positioned in partnerships with Middle East oil &
chemical companies
• Through local presence, global network and account management
Vopak has potential to grow in the hub location and industrial
terminalling
Job and value creation driving investments in the region
• Growing population leads to increasing demand for energy and jobs
• Proximity to high growth export markets
• World class infrastructure and economies of scale
QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
Global SHE Day, Sabtank
We have built our
company over 400 years
on trust and reliability
Royal Vopak I Westerlaan 10 I 3016 CK Rotterdam I The Netherlands I Tel: +31 10 400 2911 I Fax: +31 10 413 9829 I www.vopak.com